Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! In respect of and to best fit the schedule of every fantasy player’s favorite holiday, we are publishing my Start and Sit column for Week 12 a day early. Enjoy!

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 12

Quarterbacks

7. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at NYJ: 34.8-294-1.91-0.80 and 2.0-3-0.05 = 18.4
8. Brock Purdy, SF at SEA: 27.7-268-1.55-0.53 and 3.1-13-0.18 = 18.2
9. C.J. Stroud, HST vs. JAX: 35.7-298-1.61-0.54 and 1.4-5-0.07 = 18.1

10. Kyler Murray, ARZ vs. LA

34.2-233-1.27-0.79 and 5.5-34-0.33 = 18.1

Kyler Murray has returned with a 25% carry share in two weeks that ranks fourth among healthy quarterbacks for the full season, just behind Jalen Hurts (32%), Justin Fields (30%) and Lamar Jackson (28%). I’m not worried about his 2022 ankle and knee injuries. And while he has underwhelmed for fantasy with just one passing touchdown in two weeks, Murray is tied for 16th with 10 passes thrown into the red zone and suffers a 0.94 expected touchdown shortfall. The touchdowns will come.

11. Justin Fields, CHI at MIN

30.1-220-1.54-0.96 and 7.1-37-0.14 = 17.6

Justin Fields started the season with modest rushing outputs of 59, 3, 47 and 25 yards, and I assumed he was shifting his style to try to prove he was a franchise passer. But in Week 11, the third-year quarterback ran 18 times for 104 yards, nearly double his previous season highs of 11 carries and 59 yards. He may have reverted to his “second half of 2022” rushing skew. And while I don’t know what that would mean for his long-term Bears future, it would be a dream for fantasy players. Start Fields in Week 12.

12. Sam Howell, WAS at DAL

40.0-275-1.68-1.08 and 2.3-14-0.06 = 17.3

Sam Howell draws an unappealing Thanksgiving opponent in his division-rival Cowboys that rank top five in overall and pass defense DVOA. But that matchup may hurt less for fantasy than reality. Howell owes his current top four fantasy standing to his 442 pass attempts, 60 more than Josh Allen in second place at the position. And if the Cowboys can use their defense to build a multi-score lead, then Howell will certainly throw the ball this Thursday. I wouldn’t argue if you wanted to start Jared Goff instead. But don’t dismiss Howell’s fantasy chances.

13. Jared Goff, DET vs. GB

34.8-265-1.75-0.70 and 1.4-1-0.08 = 16.8

Jared Goff just misses the start cut with no quarterback on bye in Week 12. But the veteran has averaged 5.8 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his Lions tenure, the most extreme split among current starters. And he has produced nine of his 10 performances of 3-plus touchdowns at home. Feel free to start Goff this Thanksgiving.

14. Russell Wilson, DEN vs. CLV

30.2-210-1.63-0.48 and 3.1-17-0.07 = 16.1

Russell Wilson remains tied for fifth among quarterbacks with 19 passing touchdowns and ranks sixth with 56 red zone pass attempts. Kyler Murray’s and Justin Fields’ recent returns are all that remove Wilson from his first-half QB1 standard. Although for Week 12, that is probably a good thing with the fearsome Browns defense in town.

15. Jordan Love, GB at DET: 33.9-233-1.63-0.98 and 2.4-13-0.09 = 15.6
16. Baker Mayfield, TB at IND: 34.4-235-1.55-0.65 and 2.9-10-0.05 = 15.5
17. Joshua Dobbs, MIN vs. CHI: 34.2-209-1.23-0.62 and 4.2-23-0.18 = 15.5
18. Trevor Lawrence, JAX at HST: 33.9-243-1.22-0.64 and 3.1-15-0.10 = 15.5
19. Geno Smith, SEA vs. SF: 34.1-245-1.43-0.72 and 2.2-6-0.04 = 14.9
20. Derek Carr, NO at ATL: 36.4-243-1.35-0.58 and 1.4-3-0.03 = 14.4
21. Will Levis, TEN vs. CAR: 32.9-225-1.32-0.76 and 2.9-8-0.12 = 14.3
22. Matthew Stafford, LA at ARZ: 35.0-256-1.23-0.91 and 1.3-5-0.06 = 14.2

Running Backs

18. Kyren Williams, LA at ARZ: 14.0-65-0.50 and 4.0-2.5-18-0.10 = 13.1
19. Derrick Henry, TEN vs. CAR: 16.1-68-0.42 and 3.0-2.5-22-0.06 = 13.1
20. Devin Singletary, HST vs. JAX: 18.9-81-0.49 and 1.9-1.4-9-0.05 = 13.0
21. Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. SF: 14.4-67-0.40 and 3.2-2.6-16-0.07 = 12.4
22. Raheem Mostert, MIA at NYJ: 12.1-63-0.51 and 2.5-1.9-14-0.08 = 12.3
23. AJ Dillon, GB at DET: 15.2-55-0.49 and 3.4-2.5-21-0.07 = 12.2
24. De’Von Achane, MIA at NYJ: 8.0-66-0.31 and 2.8-2.2-17-0.11 = 11.9
25. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at NYG: 12.6-50-0.33 and 5.2-3.7-26-0.08 = 11.9
26. James Cook, BUF at PHI: 12.1-61-0.23 and 3.3-2.7-24-0.11 = 11.8
27. David Montgomery, DET vs. GB: 14.0-66-0.64 and 1.1-0.9-7-0.02 = 11.8
28. Jaylen Warren, PIT at CIN: 10.3-60-0.23 and 3.9-3.2-22-0.06 = 11.5
29. Javonte Williams, DEN vs. CLV: 14.3-56-0.26 and 3.5-2.8-17-0.12 = 11.0

30. Gus Edwards, BLT at LAC

12.4-53-0.60 and 1.3-1.0-8-0.02 = 10.3

Gus Edwards may owe some of his nine touchdowns since Week 6 to luck. But the veteran Ravens back also has 12 carries inside the 5-yard line in that time, three more than Austin Ekeler in second place at the position. Edwards is the best touchdown bet at his position. And that makes him a clear start even with his modest receiving contributions and even with his teammate Keaton Mitchell’s ascension.

31. Jerome Ford, CLV at DEN

12.1-50-0.30 and 3.2-2.2-14-0.08 = 9.9

Jerome Ford has bounced back from his ankle-injury-reduced 33% snap share in Week 8 to lead Kareem Hunt with a 59% versus a 36% snap share the last three weeks. Ford is the clear Cleveland starter, and you can start him at flex in Week 11.

32. Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. CHI

13.2-48-0.37 and 2.1-1.4-10-0.09 = 9.3

Alexander Mattison avoided a Week 11 absence after his apparent Week 10 concussion and enjoyed his typical 65% to 31% snap share advantage over his teammate Ty Chandler. And until that workload shifts, I will continue to recommend Mattison as a potential second-half touchdown breakout. The veteran has a 7.19 expected touchdown shortfall that is second highest at the position behind Tony Pollard.

33. Najee Harris, PIT at CIN

12.3-48-0.30 and 2.5-1.9-12-0.07 = 9.1

Jaylen Warren broke news of his apparent promotion to Steelers RB1 last week and proceeded to excel despite a difficult Browns matchup with 145 total yards and a touchdown. But I’m not positive anything changed. Najee Harris out-snapped Warren 57% to 45% last Sunday, which is nearly identical to their 54% to 45% split over the previous 10 weeks. We’ll see what happens with a new offensive coordinator. But for now, I think you can start Harris as a back-end flex — especially against a Bengals team with an inexperienced quarterback.

34. Chuba Hubbard, CAR at TEN

10.7-43-0.24 and 2.7-2.2-14-0.05 = 8.5

Chuba Hubbard has outsnapped his more famous teammate Miles Sanders 55%-36% and out-touched him 43-25 the last three weeks. I think it’s clear that Hubbard is the top Panthers back. But that status may mean less for fantasy than it does reality. Behind Bryce Young and an anemic offense, the Panthers have produced just 235 rushing attempts, tied for fourth fewest in football this season. And I am projecting the team for a modest 24.7 attempts in Week 11. I think the lack of opportunities make Hubbard a sit.

35. Ezekiel Elliott, NE at NYG

9.0-35-0.32 and 2.2-1.6-10-0.04 = 7.4

After some extra early-season run, Ezekiel Elliott has settled into a consistent 32-42% snap share and clear second-back status behind his teammate Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots had two fantasy-relevant backs in 2021 with a better offense. But Mac Jones has not created enough red zone opportunities to make Elliott relevant in 2023. And I would bench the veteran even in what should be an appealing Giants matchup.

36. Kareem Hunt, CLV at DEN

9.5-33-0.38 and 1.7-1.3-9-0.04 = 7.4

Kareem Hunt may have yielded a touchdown to his teammate Jerome Ford in Week 11. But the veteran has outcarried Ford 15 to 6 in the red zone and 6 to 2 inside the 5-yard line since Week 6. Even with his second-back workload, Hunt is the better touchdown bet. You could start him in a pinch this week.

37. Khalil Herbert, CHI at MIN

7.9-38-0.17 and 2.2-1.4-10-0.06 = 6.9

Khalil Herbert played a relative lead back share of 43% of snaps in his return from an ankle injury Sunday. But Herbert saw a much more even split with and yielded a touchdown to his teammate D’Onta Foreman before the veteran aggravated his ankle injury and left in the third quarterback. If Foreman misses Monday night, then you could consider Herbert at flex. But assuming Foreman plays, you should likely avoid every Bears running back in fantasy — especially if Justin Fields is back to his “second half of 2022” rushing standard.

38. Tyjae Spears, TEN vs. CAR: 4.4-21-0.11 and 3.9-3.0-20-0.09 = 6.7
39. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. NO: 9.5-33-0.28 and 1.7-1.3-9-0.03 = 6.7
40. Miles Sanders, CAR at TEN: 8.3-34-0.23 and 1.8-1.2-7-0.03 = 6.2
41. Keaton Mitchell, BLT at LAC: 6.3-38-0.17 and 1.4-1.1-7-0.03 = 6.2
42. Royce Freeman, LA at ARZ: 9.0-36-0.26 and 0.6-0.4-3-0.01 = 5.7
43. Samaje Perine, DEN vs. CLV: 1.3-5-0.03 and 3.6-3.1-29-0.10 = 5.7
44. D’Onta Foreman, CHI at MIN: 7.7-33-0.24 and 1.0-0.7-5-0.03 = 5.7
45. Latavius Murray, BUF at PHI: 6.1-26-0.27 and 1.1-0.9-6-0.03 = 5.4
46. Rico Dowdle, DAL vs. WAS: 7.0-29-0.21 and 1.0-0.8-5-0.03 = 5.2
47. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI vs. BUF: 4.9-19-0.19 and 2.1-1.7-11-0.05 = 5.2
48. Ty Chandler, MIN vs. CHI: 6.7-29-0.17 and 1.1-0.9-6-0.02 = 5.1

Wide Receivers

19. Nico Collins, HST vs. JAX: 6.9-4.6-70-0.33 = 11.3
20. Chris Olave, NO at ATL: 9.0-5.4-65-0.35 = 11.3
21. DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. BUF: 7.2-5.1-66-0.33 = 11.1
22. Calvin Ridley, JAX at HST: 7.8-4.7-62-0.38 = 11.1
23. Amari Cooper, CLV at DEN: 7.7-4.3-68-0.34 = 11.0
24. DK Metcalf, SEA vs. SF: 7.8-4.4-63-0.42 = 11.0
25. Tank Dell, HST vs. JAX: 6.7-4.2-63-0.35 = 11.0
26. Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. SF: 7.2-5.0-56-0.39 = 10.4
27. Christian Kirk, JAX at HST: 7.0-4.7-60-0.31 = 10.3
28. Terry McLaurin, WAS at DAL: 7.7-5.0-61-0.28 = 10.3
29. Drake London, ATL vs. NO: 7.2-4.7-57-0.33 = 10.0
30. Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. CLV: 6.3-4.4-52-0.44 = 10.0
31. Deebo Samuel, SF at SEA: 5.2-3.3-47-0.20 = 9.6
32. Diontae Johnson, PIT at CIN: 8.3-4.8-55-0.29 = 9.6
33. Zay Flowers, BLT at LAC: 6.5-4.8-54-0.24 = 9.3

34. Jordan Addison, MIN vs. CHI

5.9-3.9-53-0.33 = 9.3

Justin Jefferson could be a fantasy menace with a questionable designation and Monday night game in Week 11. Fortunately, Jordan Addison has proven enough to make him a comfortable flex option even if Jefferson returns to the lineup this week. Even assuming Jefferson plays, I am projecting Addison for an 18.0% target share that ties him for 43rd among wide receivers.

35. Demario Douglas, NE at NYG

7.0-4.5-55-0.22 = 9.2

Demario Douglas has trended up from an 8% snap share in Week 2 to 24%, 33%, 62%, 77%, 83% and 73% snap shares in his last six healthy games. And since his teammate Kendrick Bourne suffered his ACL injury, Douglas has a 23% target share that is tied for 23rd among wide receivers with Stefon Diggs. My 35th positional ranking might be too low.

36. Chris Godwin, TB at IND

7.0-4.7-51-0.27 = 9.1

I’ve tried to remain bullish on Chris Godwin because of his 3.67 expected touchdown shortfall that is highest among wide receivers. But the veteran has made that difficult with his decline from 6.3 catches per game from Weeks 4 to 8 to 4.0 catches per game in Weeks 9-11. I would still flex Godwin in Week 12. But he’s hardly a no-brainer.

37. Noah Brown, HST vs. JAX

5.2-3.5-57-0.22 = 8.9

Noah Brown exploded for 13 catches, 325 yards and a touchdown in Week 9 and 10. I am projecting him for a lesser 15.5% target share that is tied for 52nd in Week 11 with what should be a full complement of healthy Texans pass-catchers. But if Brown himself returns from his knee injury, you can flex him.

38. Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs. CLV

6.0-4.1-53-0.24 = 8.8

Jerry Jeudy has been unlucky to score just one touchdown this season. He had a potential one hit his fingers in Week 11. And he has a 0.90 expected touchdown shortfall this season. But we didn’t need to see Courtland Sutton’s jump ball score on Sunday to know that the 6-foot-4 receiver is the more likely future touchdown scorer. Sutton has out-targeted Jeudy 14 to 5 in the red zone and 11-3 within the end zone this season. And that renders Jeudy a back-end flex option rather than a WR2/3 candidate.

39. George Pickens, PIT at CIN

6.2-3.4-54-0.24 = 8.5

George Pickens has averaged 89 yards in four games without Diontae Johnson but just 41 yards in six games with Johnson healthy this season. His fantasy starter status is hanging by a thread.

40. Josh Downs, IND vs. TB

5.9-4.2-50-0.23 = 8.5

Josh Downs makes a compelling flex starter case with his 19% target share that ties him for 43rd among wide receivers this season. But the rookie slot man left his last two starts early with a knee injury. And even after a Week 11 bye, that makes him difficult to trust. I would prefer to sit Downs in Week 12 and see how he fares.

41. Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. PIT

6.4-4.5-46-0.26 = 8.5

Tyler Boyd has jumped from 6.0 targets and 37 yards per game when Tee Higgins has played to 8.3 targets and 59 yards per game when Higgins hasn’t played this season. But Boyd did the bulk of that work with Joe Burrow at quarterback and won’t have him Sunday. Even if Higgins returns this weekend, I would leave Boyd on your fantasy benches.

42. Gabe Davis, BUF at PHI

5.1-3.0-46-0.34 = 8.2

I continue to project Gabe Davis for the highest touchdown rate among wide receivers, and he will justify a start every time he scores in the second half. But Davis has slipped to three or fewer catches in five of the last six weeks as first- and second-year teammates Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir have ascended. I would prefer to bench Davis in traditional fantasy and try to benefit from his boom-or-bust nature in DFS instead.

43. Christian Watson, GB at DET

6.1-3.1-44-0.33 = 8.2

Christian Watson snapped his five-game scoreless streak in Week 11, and there should be more where that came from. The sophomore receiver has nine end zone targets since Week 5, tied for second most at the position. But Watson also has a modest 16% target share since Week 5 that ties him for 50th among wide receivers. Luke Musgrave’s likely Week 12 absence should help his target volume, but not enough for me to consider him a strong flex option with no receivers on bye this week.

44. Marquise Brown, ARZ vs. LA

7.5-3.9-43-0.29 = 8.1

Marquise Brown has made a surprising fall from a 28% target share from the first nine weeks — tied for 13th among wide receivers — to a 15% target share the last two weeks with Kyler Murray at quarterback. That ties him for just 46th at the position. It may be a coincidence. But I’m not sure I want to test that with my fantasy lineups with no receivers on bye this week.

45. Jayden Reed, GB at DET

5.2-3.3-44-0.28 = 8.1

Jayden Reed is a similar case to his teammate Christian Watson. He has a modest 14% target share the last four weeks. But he is a surprising tied for 16th with 11 red zone targets this season. He’s a decent touchdown bet with Luke Musgrave likely to miss this Thursday’s game. But you likely have better flex options.

46. Tutu Atwell, LA at ARZ

6.2-3.6-44-0.25 = 8.1

Assuming Cooper Kupp misses Week 11 with his ankle injury, I have bumped Tutu Atwell up to an 18.5% projected target share that ranks him 42nd at the position and mirrors his rate from early this season when Kupp was on injured reserve. I would bench him in typical leagues. But in deeper formats, Atwell is a decent option this week.

47. Odell Beckham, BLT at LAC: 5.6-3.3-47-0.28 = 8.0
48. Jahan Dotson, WAS at DAL: 6.2-3.7-41-0.34 = 8.0
49. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. KC: 5.4-3.6-41-0.29 = 7.8
50. Rashee Rice, KC at LV: 4.6-3.4-41-0.29 = 7.6
51. Rashid Shaheed, NO at ATL: 4.7-3.0-47-0.20 = 7.6
52. Romeo Doubs, GB at DET: 5.9-3.5-37-0.36 = 7.6
53. Curtis Samuel, WAS at DAL: 5.1-3.7-36-0.24 = 7.4
54. Michael Wilson, ARZ vs. LA: 4.6-3.2-45-0.20 = 7.3
55. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. SF: 5.4-3.6-38-0.22 = 7.0
56. Elijah Moore, CLV at DEN: 6.0-3.7-38-0.19 = 6.9
57. Khalil Shakir, BUF at PHI: 3.7-2.8-40-0.17 = 6.3
58. Brandin Cooks, DAL vs. WAS: 4.2-2.8-35-0.20 = 6.3
59. Zay Jones, JAX at HST: 4.8-3.0-32-0.26 = 6.3

Tight Ends

5. Taysom Hill, NO at ATL: 3.3-2.5-20-0.17 = 9.9
6. T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. CHI: 6.9-5.1-50-0.30 = 9.3
7. Sam LaPorta, DET vs. GB: 6.7-4.9-48-0.34 = 9.3
8. Cole Kmet, CHI at MIN: 5.9-4.7-43-0.38 = 8.9

9. David Njoku, CLV at DEN

7.1-4.6-45-0.32 = 8.7

David Njoku has never had more than four touchdowns in six previous professional seasons. But the veteran scored twice in the first half of this year and has 12 red zone targets since Week 6, three more than any other and five more than any other healthy tight end. Even with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, I think Njoku can set a new career touchdown mark. Start him in Week 12.

10. Evan Engram, JAX at HST

7.1-5.7-46-0.16 = 8.4

He seems less sensitive than his wide receiver teammate Christian Kirk. But Evan Engram has also faded from 6.7 targets per game with Zay Jones sidelined to 4.8 targets per game with Jones active. Engram may be more of a back-end fantasy TE with Jones playing in Week 12.

11. Dalton Schultz, HST vs. JAX

5.6-3.7-42-0.36 = 8.2

Dalton Schultz has been the No. 3 fantasy tight end since Week 4. But while I have him a clear start in Week 12, I am projecting a bit of a fade from his recent hot streak assuming that the Texans will finally have their full complement of wide receivers in Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown and Robert Woods all healthy this week.

12. Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. WAS

5.5-3.9-39-0.37 = 8.1

David Njoku may have him in recent weeks. But Jake Ferguson leads tight ends with 18 red zone targets for the full season. He’s a fantasy TE1 even if his teammate Luke Schoonmaker steals an occasional touchdown from him.

13. Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. NO

5.9-3.6-44-0.21 = 7.4

Forgive me if I fail to break down the Kyle Pitts fantasy implications of the Falcons’ switch back from Taylor Heinicke to Desmond Ridder at quarterback. Try to avoid Pitts if you can and expect him to score only if you bench him.

14. Logan Thomas, WAS at DAL

5.3-3.9-37-0.29 = 7.4

Logan Thomas may look like a run-of-the-mill TE2 with his 15% target share that ranks him just 18th at the position. But with the most prolific pass attempter in football in Sam Howell, Thomas is tied for ninth at the position with 58 targets this season. Like Howell, I think you can start Thomas in Week 12 despite a difficult Cowboys matchup. But Thomas falls a bit short of the typical league TE1 standard, so he may be best reserved for the teams that lost Mark Andrews or Dallas Goedert in recent weeks.

15. Jonnu Smith, ATL vs. NO: 4.2-3.3-38-0.20 = 6.7
16. Hunter Henry, NE at NYG: 4.6-3.1-32-0.23 = 6.2
17. Cade Otton, TB at IND: 4.5-3.3-30-0.25 = 6.1
18. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. MIA: 4.0-3.1-32-0.14 = 5.6
19. Michael Mayer, LV vs. KC: 3.7-2.5-28-0.20 = 5.2
20. Tyler Higbee, LA at ARZ: 4.5-2.7-28-0.15 = 5.0
21. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN vs. CAR: 4.4-2.8-25-0.15 = 4.8
22. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at CIN: 3.3-2.2-22-0.18 = 4.4
23. Gerald Everett, LAC vs. BLT: 3.1-2.3-21-0.18 = 4.4
24. Daniel Bellinger, NYG vs. NE: 2.9-2.3-24-0.13 = 4.3
25. Juwan Johnson, NO at ATL: 3.1-2.0-20-0.17 = 4.0
26. Donald Parham, LAC vs. BLT: 2.7-1.8-18-0.20 = 3.9
27. Mike Gesicki, NE at NYG: 3.0-2.0-20-0.16 = 3.9
28. Tanner Hudson, CIN vs. PIT: 2.9-2.2-22-0.10 = 3.9
29. Kylen Granson, IND vs. TB: 2.9-1.8-18-0.11 = 3.4
30. Noah Gray, KC at LV: 2.4-1.8-19-0.10 = 3.4
31. Noah Fant, SEA vs. SF: 2.2-1.7-19-0.10 = 3.3
32. Tommy Tremble, CAR at TEN: 2.4-1.7-14-0.17 = 3.3
33. Irv Smith, CIN vs. PIT: 2.7-1.8-15-0.14 = 3.2
34. Tucker Kraft, GB at DET: 2.5-1.7-16-0.10 = 3.0
35. Isaiah Likely, BLT at LAC: 2.3-1.5-16-0.10 = 3.0