Gut Feelings: Fantasy Baseball Midweek Report (5/8)

This column will serve as a mid-week review of the most relevant fantasy baseball nuggets and trends. There won’t be a standard format, yet the goal will be to keep you informed about the fluidity of playing time, batting orders, rotations and bullpens to help guide fantasy lineup and roster decision-making.

It’s been a month since my last team-by-team check-in of National League teams, so let’s run through all 15.

National League Team Check-In

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

NL RBI leader Teoscar Hernández suffered a significant injury (Grade 1 left adductor strain) and will be out for several weeks. Put him on the IL if you have that option, but do not drop him. This is a below-average offense after the Big Three as they roll out Max Muncy and Michael Conforto, hitting a combined .159 with just 3 homers and 13 RBIs. James Outman is back and will start in the outfield against RHPs. In Week 8, the Dodgers may run into three LHPs, which means we will see a modified version of their short-side platoon lineup that includes Kiké Hernández and Miguel Rojas. That uneasy feeling in my gut is my deprioritizing Hyeseong Kim in the FAAB Sunday update. My concern felt justified as manager Dave Roberts was quoted as saying that Kim would be a bench bat for the time being. Lo and behold, the roto gods altered plans as Kim started in the Sunday night game, played well, then Hernández suffered his injury Monday and Kim’s role was instantly upgraded. Let’s see how he produces the rest of this weekend in a crucial series against the Diamondbacks and if he will earn some or all of the starts next week against LHPs.

Takeaway: Get Kim, especially if you need bags

San Diego Padres

The bad run on health luck has taken a turn for the good. Fernando Tatis Jr. avoided serious injury, Jackson Merrill returned Tuesday, and Jake Cronenworth is expected back this weekend. It’s perfect timing, as this offense has struggled over the last two weeks (fourth-worst 80 team wRC+). When Cronenworth is activated, one of Oscar González or Brandon Lockridge will be optioned and Jose Iglesias’ playing time will dwindle. It might be time to get off the Gavin Sheets train. Sheets leads the team in strikeout rate (26.9%), has a .371 BABIP and a 30-point differential between his BA (.290) and xBA (.260). Side note: the Padres’ team barrel rate of 6.2% ranks 29^th, behind only the Milwaukee Brewers (5.8%).

Takeaway: The Padres are coming out of their offensive lull and are going to be a tough matchup for opposing pitchers until their next lull or set of impactful injuries.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Ketel Marte returned last week, though he has been rusty and was absent from Wednesday’s lineup. Geraldo Perdomo was moved down to the bottom third of the lineup when Marte returned, but manager Torey Lovullo has been able to squeeze him into the top two twice over the last week. Perdomo’s fantasy output to date ranks among the top 15 hitters in MLB, and his 3.40 BB/K is hard to wrap one’s head around. There is no full-time roster spot yet for the top hitter in Triple-A, Jordan Lawlar, who has been covering SS, 2B and 3B for the Reno Aces. We continue to hold our shares. Gabriel Moreno has been out of the lineup since Tuesday, dealing with a side injury, with Jose Herrera drawing the last two starts. Moreno appeared as a pinch-hitter Wednesday. Minor-league catcher Adrian Del Castillo is nowhere close to getting promoted as he has been sidelined all season with a shoulder injury, though he is expected to return to action soon.

Takeaway: Perdomo won’t keep up with his current power surge, but this breakout is real. Finding his way into consistent playing time in the top third of the lineup will help propel him into a top-40 fantasy hitter this season.

San Francisco Giants

Tyler Fitzgerald has been out with a rib injury since April 30. He is already doing some light baseball activities and projects to return later this month. Christian Koss has been covering 2B, though his bat and defense have both been below average. Mike Yastrzemski has maintained his job in the leadoff spot against RHPs, LaMonte Wade Jr. (.144/.206/.250) has struggled mightily, and Willy Adames has finally been heating up. Over the last two weeks in 56 PAs for Adames: 10 R, 3 HR, 12.5 BB%, .375 OBP, 148 wRC+.

Takeaway: Are you surprised I didn’t mention Jung Hoo Lee, and it’s not about him? It’s nice to see this team playing competitive ball. You’ll see them go after a big trade target or two in a couple of months.

Colorado Rockies

What an absolute dumpster fire. The Rockies have the worst record in baseball (6-28), have scored the fewest runs (3.03 per game), have the highest team strikeout rate (27.8%), and their 60 wRC+ is nearly 25% lower than the next worst offense (Pirates). Their so-called 3-hitter, Ryan McMahon, has a sub-.170 average with a 32% strikeout rate. Hey, at least Hunter Goodman is playing every day. Goodman and Jordan Beck are the only two Rockies with a wRC+ over 100. Beck has a 34 percent strikeout rate.

Takeaway: Never count out a Coors series to get a struggling hitter back on track. Since writing this blurb, McMahon went 4-4 Wednesday night and increased his batting average by 30 points.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Per the Fangraphs Player Rater, there are 25 hitters earning $20 or more roto dollars. Four of them are Cubs – Kyle Tucker (2), Pete Crow-Armstrong (4), Carson Kelly (21), Seiya Suzuki (23). Kelly still splits starts with Miguel Amaya, but Kelly has been batting fourth and fifth over the past week. Michael Busch (vs. RHPs) and Justin Turner (vs. LHPs) remain in a platoon at first base. The Cubs’ No. 6 prospect, Moisés Ballesteros, has been a top-five hitter in Triple-A this season. Ballesteros could earn a cup of coffee later this season or if Kelly or Amaya are out with a long-term injury. Matt Shaw should be called up sometime this month and is a good stash.

Takeaway: Pete Crow-Armstrong is looking like This Year’s Yelich. This is a full-fledged breakout.

Cincinnati Reds

A constant stream of moving parts in this offense. Noelvi Marte (strained oblique) joined the all-IL team Wednesday alongside Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Austin Hays, Jeimer Candelario and rookie Tyler Callihan. Tyler Stephenson has been back for about a week and has made some starts at DH with Jose Trevino suiting up behind the plate. Jake Fraley has missed the last two games with a left calf injury and might also go on the injured list. The Reds promoted 24-year-old outfielder Rece Hinds. You may remember him as the guy out of nowhere who hit five home runs in his first six MLB games last July, went for an average winning bid of over $300 in NFBC and was demoted a week later. Hinds has 8 HR and 12 SB in 33 Triple-A games along with a 30% strikeout rate. Let’s see if history can repeat itself with another scorching stretch and the eventual demotion. This gut won’t be falling for it.

Takeaway: Don’t fall for Rece Hinds, again.

St. Louis Cardinals

Masyn Winn is yet another lesson in patience. We were content to draft him at a 150 ADP all winter. Winn scuffled at the plate most of spring training as he dealt with a sore right wrist and moved from his leadoff spot to batting ninth. Two weeks into the season, he dealt with back spasms and went on the injured list and was dropped in many 12-team leagues. Since returning April 22, Winn is hitting .293 with a .244 ISO and has earned himself a bump up to the two-hole. Winn worked with his hitting coaches last month on a tweak to his swing, which has resulted in harder contact and more barrels – a 10% rate so far, nearly triple last season’s 3.7%. One more thing Winn-vestors are waiting on are those 30 swipes he promised. Winn has two on four attempts. I’m sure they’re coming. Alec Burleson has been playing almost every day while Jordan Walker has been hitting the bench more often. Brendan Donovan is slashing .333/.389/.474, Lars Nootbaar is among the MLB runs and walks leaders and Willson Contreras has finally been flexing some power. Oh, and our boy Victor Scott II has been a pleasant mainstay at the bottom of the lineup and is one of only three players in the majors with double-digit swipes. Soon, they welcome back Iván Herrera.

Takeaway: Don’t give up too early on players you believed in during draft season. There’s usually a logical explanation for everything.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are usually competitive no matter how thin their offense looks on paper, but this season’s crew feels particularly light beyond Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich and William Contreras. Contreras has been playing despite a fractured middle finger on his left hand and it might explain some of his early-season struggles. Meanwhile, Yelich is striking out at a 34% clip at American Family Field. Rule 5 almost-28-year-old Isaac Collins is a regular, batting seventh against righties and second versus lefties. Rookie third baseman Caleb Durbin has been ineffective offensively (.218/.302/.327) with just one steal on two attempts and no barrels. His Statcast sprint speed (28.5 ft/sec) ranks 86^th percentile, but he hasn’t been running like he did in the minors. There aren’t any hitters in their system to be excited about. Their two top hitting prospects from Triple-A (Jeferson Quero, Tyler Black) are both injured. The Brewers rank top two in stolen bases but are in the bottom seven in most offensive team categories.

Takeaway: Somehow, someway, the Brewers will remain competitive. They have a ton of high-upside arms coming off the injured list in the coming months.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Whenever I click over to this lineup my first thought is “Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds must be saved!” Their three-hole hitter Andrew McCutchen was drafted a year after Chourio was born. Their cleanup man is Joey Bart, and their five-hole guy is veteran journeyman Enmanuel Valdez It’s sad to type: Four of their best six hitters are on the IL – Spencer Horwitz, Nick Gonzales, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Endy Rodríguez. Horwitz is on a rehab assignment and is expected to make his Pirates debut this weekend.

Takeaway: Somebody save Cruz! Somebody save Reynolds! Let this be Horwitz’ crappy team.

NL East

New York Mets

One of the most well-rounded and talented teams in baseball. The trio of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso is elite. Alonso transformation and metrics are unrecognizable – a 16% walk rate, 16.5% strikeout rate (six points below his career rate) and a barrel rate over 20%. He is one of just five qualified hitters with an average exit velocity over 95 mph, a 5-mph increase over the last few seasons. His .341 batting average is fueled by a .371 BABIP. He probably won’t end up over .300, but an outlier season is possible. The weak link in this lineup is Tyrone Taylor, but he has been excellent in center field. Don’t give up on Mark Vientos yet because the best is yet to come. We are about a week or two away from him moving up to fourth or fifth in the batting order.

Takeaway: This is a scary, elite offense. Just wait until Mark Vientos wakes up.

Philadelphia Phillies

Can’t wait for Domination Week, which kicks off at the start of Week 9, May 19, when the Phillies play a four-game series at Coors Field and three at Sutter Health Park. The Phillies have the second-highest team hard-hit rate in the NL (44.5%) behind the Mets (46%) and five players in their starting lineup have four or more stolen bases. Alec Bohm just hit his first home run Tuesday, and Bryce Harper is slowly starting to heat up at the plate. Brandon Marsh was activated last weekend to resume his role as the strong-side platoon CF. Keep tabs on undrafted infielder Otto Kemp over at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Kemp is slashing .341/.432/.689 on a 93.5 average exit velocity with 10 HR and 5 SB in 30 games. He was named the MiLB International Player of the Month in April.

Takeaway: Buy low on Alec Bohm.

Miami Marlins

They had the misfortune of facing the Dodgers six times over the last week. It took them extra innings to steal one of those games, but they have otherwise been on the wrong side of the stat sheets, losing nine of their last 11. There have been some unexpected stretches of fantasy relevance from Otto Lopez, Matt Mervis, Dane Myers, Kyle Stowers and, of course, rookie backstop Agustín Ramírez. By the way, Mervis has the league’s third-highest strikeout rate (nearing 40%) behind Colorado’s Michael Toglia and Angels’ Kyren Paris Rule 5 backup catcher Liam Hicks is second on the team in RBIs with 17. Nick Fortes recently returned, Derek Hill is on the way back to muddy playing time in the outfield and at some point, Jesús Sánchez and Connor Norby will start producing.

Takeaway: The next flavor of the week sometime later this month will be Derek Hill. Try to get ahead of it. Prediction (bonus): Matt Mervis won’t be a Marlin beyond the ASB.

Atlanta Braves

All the Braves needed to spark their offense was the presence of Alex Verdugo in a Braves uniform. They had a 5-14 record before Verdugo joined them and are 12-6 since. More Verdugo Effect, where you see that the data speaks for itself.

• Before Verdugo: 18 games — 58 RBI, 27% K, 1.5 WAR
• Since Verdugo: 17 games — 77 RBI, 18% K, 3.0 WAR

This is partially in jest, because Verdugo did not single-handedly infuse the team with a winning spirit and spark. This is a collection of some of baseball’s most dangerous hitters. Sean Murphy’s return helped spark the offense, as did Michael Harris II’s second-half-of-April surge. Ausin Riley has been the consistent offensive sparkplug here. The Braves replaced Orlando Arcia at shortstop with Nick Allen, and it’s been going well. Allen and Eli White provided an unexpected spark at the bottom of the lineup. Allen has 5 SBs and White is hitting over .300. Manager Brian Snitker is the closest the league has to an anti-platoon manager. Though this is a very balanced offense without strong platoon splits. Nevertheless, the main guys earn most of the work and the bench guys root them on. None of Orlando Arcia, Stuart Fairchild or Eddie Rosario has started a game in over a week.

Takeaway: Just wait what happens when Ronald Acuña Jr. returns.

Washington Nationals

An exciting, upcoming offensive cast that is trying to find their identity. James Wood is the team’s star, Nathaniel Lowe and CJ Abrams are the primary supporting cast. Who is Dylan Crews? That is the question we need to find an answer to. Crews was the Nationals’ primary leadoff hitter for most of his rookie season. In 2025, his batting order slot is all over the map, from second to ninth, and it appears to be settling in around seventh for now. He is 9/10 in swipes along with 4 HRs but is striking out at a near-30% clip and slashes .194/.242/.323. It’s too early to declare our eighth-round Crews shares to be busts. There is more than 75% of the season left to play. Manager Dave Martinez has been wishy-wishy with his borderline boys. José Tena was playing 3B every day and now we’ve seen more Amed Rosario there – regardless of lefty or righty on the mound. Jacob Young fell out of favor for about a week but is back in CF every day from the bottom of the lineup. Their 2021 first-round draft pick, outfielder Daylen Lile, has been crushing it down in Triple-A (.321/.356/.518, 7 SBs) and could find his way up to our nation’s capital later this season if outfield help is needed.

Takeaway: Don’t give up on Dylan Crews. He will do big things this season.

That will do it for this week’s Gut Feelings. See you for some FAAB this weekend.