Fantasy Baseball ADP Market Report (Feb. 26)

This article is the third in a series focusing on prominent risers and fallers in average draft position based on completed drafts at the NFBC. This time, we are focusing on players whose ADP rose or fell materially in Online Championship leagues, which are 12-team, 30-round contests with FAAB.

The purpose of these articles is to ensure that fantasy managers are not only aware of which players are rising and falling in ADP, but also to understand why these changes are occurring so that potential market efficiencies can be evaluated and exploited.

For this article, the “old” ADP is taken from 16 OC drafts that were completed between Jan. 15 and Feb. 5 and compared to the “new” ADP data from 19 OC drafts completed between Feb. 6 and Feb. 21. To capture meaningful market trends, we examine risers and fallers based on the percentage of ADP movement.

Fantasy Baseball ADP Market Report

Top ADP Risers – Pitchers

Many of the top ADP risers among pitchers are relievers experiencing a change in location. Ryan Pressly, for instance, elected to waive his no-trade clause and accept a trade to Chicago where he is expected to serve as the Cubs’ primary closer. When healthy, Pressly still possesses strong skills, and is capable of being an effective closer. In 2024, however, his strikeout percentage continued an ominous decline (from 35.7% in 2022 to 27.6% in 2023 to 23.8% in 2024) and, at 36, often misses time with various minor injuries. Thus, while I think Pressly will receive the majority of saves chances to start the season, he is in the last year of his contract and Porter Hodge should be given plenty of high-leverage work, including save opportunities, as the Cubs evaluate whether he can be their future closer.

Kenley Jansen, a free agent for much of the offseason, signed recently with the Angels and will serve as that team’s closer. Most fantasy managers expected Jansen to sign as a closer, although him joining the “other” Los Angeles team came as a surprise to many. Oftentimes, drafting free agents prior to them signing with a team will net a discount, as most players’ ADPs tend to rise post-signing. Jansen is 37 but had a solid 2024 campaign closing games for Boston (4 W, 27 SV, 62 K in 54.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). Jansen has the fourth-most saves in MLB history and has a decent chance to overtake Lee Smith for third with a strong season. There is little doubt that, excluding rest days and time missed due to injury, Jansen will be used exclusively as closer.

Carlos Estévez’ ADP is on the rise following him signing a free agent contract with Kansas City, where he is expected to serve as the team’s primary closer. While Estévez’ career ratios are unappealing (4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), it is important to remember that he spent his first six seasons pitching in Colorado.  In 2024, Estévez enjoyed his best season in the majors, compiling plenty of saves and strong ratios for two teams (4 W, 26 SV, 50 K in 55.0 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP).

Tanner Scott signed with the Dodgers and, while his role seemed uncertain when the team acquired Kirby Yates a brief time later, Scott’s ADP is back on the rise given recent statements by the team. The Dodgers have at least six pitchers (Scott, Yates, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, Alex Vesia) with the skills to close games effectively. Manager Dave Roberts, however, said recently that Scott will receive the “brunt” of the team’s save opportunities to start the season. While Scott was dominant in 2024 (9 W, 22 SV, 84 K in 72.0 IP, 1.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), I would be mildly surprised if Scott reaches 30 saves given the quality of options that Roberts can choose from in the Dodgers’ bullpen. That noted, the team is paying Scott like a capital-C closer (4 years, $72 million) and if employed as such, he has a pathway to being top closer in fantasy for 2025.

Jason Adam continues to rise in ADP, and while neither his team nor role has changed, there continues to be chatter about San Diego possibly trading Robert Suarez. Were such a trade to occur, or if Suarez suffered an injury, Adam would be the favorite to serve as the Padres’ closer. While Adam has never had an extended run as a team’s primary closer, he certainly has the skills for the role and pitched “lights out” in 2024 (7 W, 4 SV, 81 K in 73.2 IP, 1.95 ERA, 0.86 WHIP). It sounds like San Diego would love to shed Suarez’s salary given the current uncertainty surrounding the team’s ownership, but, at least as of this writing, they have yet to find a team willing to pay the price for Suarez.

Shifting to starting pitchers, Max Scherzer signed recently with the Toronto and will enter the season in their rotation. Scherzer is 40 years old and, while managing only nine starts last season, he still pitched relatively effectively (22.6% K%, 5.6% BB%, 3.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). Even at his moderately elevated draft cost, Scherzer could provide strong value for managers, health permitting.

Clay Holmes is starting to creep up draft boards as he transitions with the Mets from relief pitcher to starter. Holmes has not started an MLB game since 2018 but pitched three perfect innings in his spring training debut. Managers rostering Holmes last season and experiencing his MLB-high 13 blown saves may have trepidations about investing again, but he does possess solid skills, extreme groundball tendencies (3.70 career GB/FB), and will be starting games for a formidable team in a favorable home ballpark. I am beginning to sense some draft helium with Holmes and managers desiring one or more shares may wish to invest now because I suspect his cost will continue to rise heading into high-stakes drafts.

Top ADP Risers – Hitters

Fantasy managers approve of Pete Alonso’s decision to re-sign with the Mets. He is obviously very comfortable playing in New York and retains the ability to head back into free agency following the season. While Alonso will never steal more than a few bases and is unlikely to hit for a high average, he is a strong – if not elite – producer in the other three hitting categories (R, HR, RBI) and is well situated hitting behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto.

Another ADP riser electing to re-sign with his team is Teoscar Hernández. Coming off a very strong 2024 season (84 R, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 12 SB, .272 AVG), there may not be another hitter better positioned for success given that Hernández is slated to hit cleanup for the Dodgers, behind Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.

Wyatt Langford did not change teams or roles but has been climbing steadily up draft boards as managers continue to draft him aggressively. Langford is projected to hit third for Texas and offers an attractive combination of power and speed without sacrificing average. It will be interesting to see if his ADP continues to climb as we head into high-stakes drafts, and if the current ascension will be slowed at all by a mild oblique strain that reportedly will not jeopardize his availability for Opening Day.

Joining Langford as one of this offseason’s largest ADP climbers is Junior Caminero. The Rays are very high on Caminero, and rightfully so — he projects to be a future star whose upside combines strong if not elite power with batting average. Caminero got his feet wet in the majors last season and will not be 22 until July. Like Langford, Caminero possesses major upside, but managers will have to determine how much profit potential still exists for both players following their recent rise in ADP.

Sticking with young ADP risers, Jackson Holliday is starting to climb, and I expect that to continue into high-stakes drafts. Holliday is a very high pedigree prospect with a starting role on a strong team and will be looking to improve off a disappointing rookie season. Holliday, who only recently turned 21, had a busy offseason by most reports.  Holliday apparently has added muscle and a toe tap, is intent on running more frequently, and has worked intensively on his defense at second base. As the fantasy saying goes, prospect growth is not linear, and Holliday – as a former No. 1 overall prospect – certainly has the skills to take a major step up in 2025. That noted, he is still very young and the depths of his 2024 struggles should not be overlooked entirely (28 R, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 4 SB, .189 AVG in 60 G, 208 PA with 33.2% K%). Additionally, the Orioles will be competing for a playoff spot and have multiple alternatives to Holliday if he stumbles out of the gate.

Top ADP Fallers – Pitchers

The biggest fallers among pitchers in ADP includes several members of the “Supplanted Closer” club. Ben Joyce was the presumed closer for the Angels, until they signed Jansen. Lucas Erceg was expected to close games in Kansas City, until the Royals signed Estévez. Yates was expected to close somewhere, including Los Angeles upon his free agent signing, but now it appears that the Dodgers will turn to Scott first to finish most games. Hodge appeared set to continue as the Cubs’ closer – a role he assumed and exceled in late last season – until the team traded for Pressly. Each of these pitchers had fine 2024 seasons:

While none of these four relievers should be drafted as a primary closer, they have the ability, and potential opportunities, to be useful fantasy pieces with a chance to accumulate saves. Yates by far has the most closing experience and is coming off a truly dominant season finishing games for Texas. Given the Dodgers’ recent history of mixing and matching pitchers to face various pockets in opponents’ lineups, I anticipate Yates earning low double-digit saves even if Scott stays healthy and pitches well. Erceg and Hodge are in similar situations in that both pitchers currently may be more skilled than their new but more experienced teammates. While Joyce put up stellar ratios last season, he is the most inexperienced of this quartet and possesses a surprisingly low strikeout rate given his elite velocity. Erceg seemed to thrive in the closer role late last season, and few would be shocked if he outpitched Estévez and reclaimed the role. Because Jansen and Pressly are on one-year contracts, their teams may give Joyce and Hodge enough save opportunities to evaluate whether they are ready to assume the role late this season or for the start of next season. Of course, Jansen and Pressly also have had recurring medical issues, and any time lost for these older veterans provides another pathway for Joyce and Hodge to accumulate saves.

Another big ADP faller is new Dodger Roki Sasaki. I attribute Sasaki’s ADP decline to managers’ initial euphoria about rostering what could be a generational talent dimming a little as news about his health concerns – and risks about his 2025 fantasy outlook – become more widely known.

Pitching for the Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki had four exceptional seasons pitching in Japan:

Sasaki is only 23 and now will be pitching for the defending World Series champions. He should receive plenty of run support and be backed by a stellar bullpen. On the other hand, Sasaki has a relatively lengthy – and somewhat ominous – injury history for someone so young. It was reported recently that in 2021 Sasaki suffered an arm strain and Tommy John surgery was recommended (but not undertaken). In 2023, Sasaki tore his left oblique. In 2024, he experienced shoulder soreness and arm discomfort, and his performance was less dominant than it had been in 2022 and 2023. The Dodgers are likely to treat Sasaki with kid gloves and being in a six-man rotation will limit his workload – which may help keep him healthy but raises questions about how high he should be drafted for the 2025 season.

Brewers closer Trevor Megill saw his ADP fall after being delayed in camp due to what have been described as “minor” but undisclosed health issues. Seeing those reports, some managers have exercised caution and probably gone in a different direction at closer, thereby impacting Megill’s ADP. At this point, there do not appear to be any serious concerns regarding Megill’s availability for Opening Day, but the lack of disclosure as to what is ailing Megill understandably has created some trepidation for managers thinking about clicking the “Draft Player” button. If and when Megill pitches effectively in spring training games, his ADP could – and probably should – return to its prior level.

Top ADP Fallers – Hitters

Spencer Steer led all hitters in terms of falling ADP during the time period. Thus far, Steer has not been able to play the field due to a sore right shoulder. Considering that Steer had shoulder issues late last season, it is concerning that after a full off-season, he is still experiencing soreness. Steer has only recent began throwing, but has expressed confidence that he will be ready by Opening Day. Given an old ADP in the eighth round, it is not surprising that unresolved shoulder soreness is causing managers to look elsewhere. I expect managers’ enthusiasm to draft Steer to remain dampened at least until we see him playing the field with some regularity.

Last year’s No. 1 fantasy pick, Ronald Acuña Jr., saw an ADP decline recently as additional news concerning his recovery became public. Although offseason video of Acuña hitting bombs created some short-term optimism among managers, the news out of Braves camp is that Acuña is likely to miss the first month of the season. As I remind readers repeatedly in my weekly Drops & Disasters in-season column, with injured players there not only is uncertainty regarding their recovery times, but also long it will be until they return to peak performance. In the case of Acuña, his return to the field may be accompanied by fewer stolen bases, and he indicated recently that he plans to “take it easy” on the basepaths as he continues to recover from left ACL surgery.

No fewer than three Red Sox made the list of ADP hitter fallers: Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela. The big news causing those declines is Boston’s signing of Alex Bregman. It remains to be seen how the Red Sox will utilize Bregman – the two most likely scenarios outside of Triston Casas being traded are: (1) Bregman takes over third base, shifting Rafael Devers to DH; and (2) Devers remains at third base while Bregman plays second base. Under either scenario, there is now one less space in Boston’s lineup for Campbell, Anthony and Rafaela than what existed prior to the Bregman signing. It sounds like the Red Sox might prefer to use Bregman at third base and Devers at designated hitter, leaving second base open for Campbell if he impresses in spring training. Right now, the only outfielder who I think is guaranteed playing time is Jarren Duran, following his superlative 2024 season. Rafaela’s defense should give him an extended leash in centerfield, and he could lock down that position if his bat catches up to his glove. While the Bregman signing possibly raises the bar on how well Campbell and Anthony would need to play to break camp with the team, they are elite prospects who, when deemed ready, should become everyday starters.