The Perception/Production Gap in Fantasy Football 2025: QB/RB

The fantasy football drafting community is reactive. Of course, it should be — you wouldn’t draft a 34-year-old running back coming off his worst season at the same place you’d have drafted him as a 24-year-old in his second season.

To wit: In his rookie season, Amon-Ra St. Brown went basically undrafted, but in PPR leagues, he finished as the WR21. So in his second season, he was drafted on average as the … WR21. He finished as the WR7. So in 2023, he was drafted as the WR7, and finished as the WR3. A year later, he was drafted as the WR3, and this time, the community was right, because he finished 2024 as the WR3 yet again.

It usually isn’t quite that simple. It’s just funny that Amon-Ra St. Brown has been drafted exactly where he finished the previous season throughout his career.

Sometimes, it’s that simple. A guy improves over a few years, his ADP improves in kind. When a guy struggles, his ADP drops. All else being equal, older guys have worse ADPs, and younger guys have better ones. You can predict it.

For the most part.

For some players — or some types of players — the drafting community is particularly bad at this, for a variety of reasons. It’s the perception/production gap. Today (quarterbacks and running backs) and Friday (wide receivers and tight ends), I’m looking at the most interesting trends in ADP and PPR finish over the last few years and what it means for drafting in 2025.

The Perception/Production Gap: QB/RB

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

For years, Mahomes was a superstar of superstars. In real football, he still qualifies, but for fantasy, it’s not so simple. Mahomes has been drafted as a top-two fantasy quarterback for six straight years, but after three straight top-four finishes in 2020-2022, he’s dropped to QB8 and QB11 the last two years. The Chiefs offense has dipped, and Mahomes’ fantasy stock has dipped as well. With early ADP showing Mahomes is down to QB7, it seems like fantasy drafters get that. (Which would make it hilarious if he goes off this year with Rashee Rice back, but who knows.)

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

One of the types that fantasy drafters are often wrong on is the types who burned a lot of drafters in the past. Enter Mayfield, who did it twice. The drafting community absolutely loved him in 2019 coming out of his rookie year, only for him to struggle the next three years. After he landed in Carolina for 2022, people dipped back in tepidly, but it went poorly again. Now with Tampa Bay, Mayfield hasn’t gotten any love the last two years and has returned consecutive top-10 seasons. Maybe the drafting community can let bygones be bygones now.

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Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

Another trope that drafters regularly get wrong is the high-floor, low-ceiling types. The guys who you can feel comfortable will finish as a top-15 quarterback but can’t really expect them to be top-five. It makes sense — why settle for the low upside when you can swing for the fences? But the end result is people who have drafted Jared Goff have gotten positive returns for several years now.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

The age cliff comes for everyone eventually, and trying to figure out when it will hit some specific guy is one of the biggest tasks facing drafters. We collectively thought it was coming for Alvin Kamara a couple years ago, and he has steadfastly refused to indulge in that belief. The eight-year veteran, former-RB1-finisher even set a career high in rushing yards last year, with his highest yards per carry since 2020. Sure, Kamara will be 30 in Week 1. Are you really that sure he’s done as a star-star yet?

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

In 2021 and 2022, the Panthers had Christian McCaffrey In 2023, they signed Miles Sanders. In 2024, they took the first running back off the board in the draft in Jonathon Brooks. In other words, Hubbard has been in the league four years, and he hasn’t yet gone into a season where the team planned to rely on him. Despite that, Hubbard is 14^th among running backs in rushing yards since entering the league, including 902 and 1,195 that last two years. Now, we’re all a little worried about the arrival of Rico Dowdle and the eventual return of Brooks, but Hubbard’s the guy for now, so could he reach new heights?

Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans

Pollard is the more recent version of the Baker Mayfield example earlier. He regularly beat his ADP for years, and then as soon as everybody bought in, back in 2023, he disappointed, with an RB14 finish that was more a product of him playing all 17 games than it was him being a fantasy success. So the burned fantasy community got out of the Pollard business last year, and he returned to beating expectations. He’s RB21 in early ADP right now, and with an improving offensive line and what should be a competent quarterback, he’s got a shot at beating it again.