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2023 Tour Championship Betting Preview
This weeks Tour Championship is the final event of the 2023 PGA Tour campaign. It should be a huge deal, but the tournament usually goes off with a whimper thanks to the format. With just 30 golfers remaining, match play would be the ideal format for viewing, but they’ve opted for a handicapped stroke-play format. […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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PGA Betting Outrights: 2023 Tour Championship
Welcome to the most difficult week in all of golf betting! We lack a course fit model, and the staggered starting scores create a riddle that’s far more difficult to solve than most weeks. Let’s start with the course fit model — the goal of the model is to explain variation in historical performance […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Outrights: 2023 BMW Championship
Apologies for the late release of this week’s outrights article! I’m playing in the Pennsylvania Open, so I’m trying to get another outright win of my own! Come Sunday, however, I will be right back to rooting for the outright from my couch. Golf outrights are unlike anything else in betting. In no other […]
FTN Staff
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2023 BMW Championship Betting Preview
The PGA Tour moves from Memphis to Chicago this week for the second event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. There are just 50 golfers left standing, so we can dive into the entire field rather easily. Finding a fit for the course is always the starting point of my betting process, so let’s check […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Outrights: 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship
For the second consecutive week, I only have one outright bet (so far). Surprise, surprise — it’s Keegan! Again! Golf outrights are unlike anything else in betting. In no other sport do we consistently and exclusively look at bets that are 10-1 at best and more often than not closer to 100-1. One consequence […]
FTN Staff
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2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview
TPC Southwind will host the opening event for the 2023 FedEx Cup Playoffs. We have a lot of history to lean on here, but there are plenty of fresh faces seeing the course for the first time. That is where course fit comes into play and becomes so important. Let’s lead with that. Course […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Course Fit and Stats: The 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship
Playoffs?? Hell yeah, we’re talking about playoffs. Do I wish there was a traditional cut this week? You bet, but we’ve got a great field at a great golf course, and a course-fit model that’s just as strong. A brief reminder of the thought process behind and execution of the course fit model: Golf […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Outrights: 2023 Wyndham Championship
Sedgefield Country Club is a favorite tour stop for many of the guys in the field for the PGA Tour’s Wyndham Championship this week. As someone who has played its sister course in a handful of mini tour events, I can see why. There’s lots of other reason for excitement, though. From my Course Fit […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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2023 Wyndham Championship Betting Preview
The Wyndham Championship is the final event of the PGA Tour’s regular season. There is still plenty of golf on the horizon, but this is the last chance for golfers to earn their spot in the playoffs. Narratives always start flying at this event, but we should stick to the basics, which is baseline performance […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Course Fit and Stats: The 2023 Wyndham Championship
I’m pumped for this week, and it has nothing to do with the course, or event, itself. Instead, it’s because we now have multiple measures of volatility, round-to-round and event-to-event. Let’s use Tony Finau and Cam Young as the example from last week: Cam is more volatile from one round to the next, but […]
FTN Staff
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2023 3M Open Betting Preview
The 3M Open doesn’t receive a lot of fanfare, but it’s one of my favorite events on the PGA schedule. I lived in the area for six years and have walked the course a few times. It’s always more fun to watch and handicap an event when you’ve been on the grounds. Let’s jump right […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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PGA Betting Outrights: 2023 3M Open
From a Major Championship to an annual PGA Tour stop. The last time we returned to a familiar course post-Major Championship, we hit the Keegan Bradley 100-1 outright. More of the same this week? Zoom out for a second. It’s Monday Night Football in October and you just hit your second 10-1 “first touchdown” bet […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Course Fit and Stats: 2023 3M Open
The last time we returned to a known PGA course following a Major? Keegan Bradley’s win at the Travelers! This week, we once again return from the uncertainty of an unknown Major Championship golf course to a course we know well — TPC Twin Cities. Spoiler alert — I’m a big fan of this week’s […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Outrights: 2023 Open Championship
Collin Morikawa in 2021, Cam Smith last year. Can we make it three consecutive outrights at The Open Championship?? Zoom out for a second. It’s Monday Night Football in October and you just hit your second 10-1 “first touchdown” bet of the season. You’re ecstatic! This is what makes golf outright betting so unique — […]
FTN Staff
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2023 Open Championship Betting Preview
The Open Championship is known for its iconic courses and wacky weather. When setting up the golf courses for The Open, the R&A does not artificially toughen the tracks, like we see with some of the other majors. Instead, they let Mother Nature dictate whether it will be a 3-under winner or a 20-under winner. […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Course Fit and Stats: The 2023 Open Championship
The final Major Championship of the year! The Open has always been a favorite of mine because of the unique experience of watching golf throughout the early hours of the night/morning, but Collin Morikawa’s win a few years ago took it to another level. It was the first year I used the strategy of […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Outrights: 2023 Scottish Open
Zoom out for a second. It’s Monday Night Football in October and you just hit your second 10-1 “first touchdown” bet of the season. You’re ecstatic! This is what makes golf outright betting so unique — the favorites in any given tournament would qualify as extreme long-shot bets in any other sport. One consequence […]
FTN Staff
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2023 Scottish Open Betting Preview
Heading across the pond for a few weeks, the PGA Tour joins forces with the DP World Tour for a co-sanctioned event this week in Scotland, ramping up to next week’s Open Championship at Royal Liverpool. The host course this week is the Renaissance Club, which has played that role each of the last […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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PGA Betting Outrights: 2023 John Deere Classic
Zoom out for a second. It’s Monday Night Football in October, and you just hit your second 10-1 “first touchdown” bet of the season. You’re ecstatic! This is what makes golf outright betting so unique — the favorites in any given tournament would qualify as extreme long-shot bets in any other sport. One consequence […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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2023 John Deere Classic Betting Preview
Turning our PGA betting attention toward TPC Deere Run and the John Deere Classic this week, we have another short course with loads of birdies readily available for the entire field. My betting process always begins with an evaluation of the course and what skills are most likely to translate into success, so let’s start […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Course Fit and Stats: The 2023 John Deere Classic
It’s easy to faze out the PGA Tour a bit in this stretch of the season. From one birdiefest to another, one weak field to another, one thing doesn’t change – the money we can win is every bit as real as it is during elevated events or Majors. The John Deere Classic is far […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Preview
Thank you, Keegan Bradley! Another outright winner takes us over the 200-unit mark in PGA for the year. There’s nothing better than a community hit. Betting in golf is its own animal, its own test week in and week out. In no other sport do we have to evaluate how well a player fits […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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PGA Betting Course Fit and Stats: 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic
Keegan Bradley! Fresh off the outright hit (now up over 200 units on the season), we head to a golf course that emphasizes off the tee performance above all else. I like our chances to stay hot! A brief reminder of the thought process behind and execution of the course fit model: Golf is the […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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2023 Travelers Championship Betting Preview
Betting in golf is its own animal, its own test week in a week out. In no other sport do we have to evaluate how well a player fits the environment (course, field, court, etc.) in addition to how good he simply is. We are also typically working with longer odds — at least I […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Course Fit and Stats: The 2023 Travelers Championship
Consider me a big fan of the elevated events immediately following majors. As exciting as they are, it’s wonderful to get right back to a strong field on a course with a strong, known, course-fit model. A brief reminder of the thought process behind and execution of the course fit model: Golf is the […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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2023 U.S. Open Betting Preview
Betting in golf is its own animal, its own test week in a week out. In no other sport do we have to evaluate how well a player fits the environment (course, field, court, etc.) in addition to how good he simply is. We are also typically working with longer odds — at least I […]
FTN Staff
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PGA Betting Course Fit and Stats: The 2023 US Open
Happy US Open week! The year’s third major changes venue each year, but each course hand-selected by the USGA tends to test the players in similar ways. In addition to our usual strokes-gained categories, this model also incorporates specific approach buckets, like long irons. Los Angeles Country Club should be a treat, and hopefully it […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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2023 Memorial Tournament Betting Preview
The options in the PGA betting markets are wide, and while there are several ways to attack those markets, outright bets (or picks to win the tournament — outright) are going to be a large part of the key focus in this article. The theory is that outrights, being low-probability events, are harder for books […]
Kyle Murray
PGA
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PGA DFS Course Fit and Stats: The 2023 Memorial Tournament
My largest DFS win ever came at The Memorial in 2020, so this event has a special place in my heart. The big win was no coincidence – this course fit model is one of the two strongest we see all year, and its uniqueness further strengthens our edge. A brief reminder of the […]
FTN Staff
PGA
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2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview
The options in the PGA betting markets are wide, and while there are several ways to attack those markets, outright bets (or picks to win the tournament — outright) are going to be a large part of the key focus in this article. The theory is that outrights, being low-probability events, are harder for books […]
Kyle Murray
PGA
Bets
PGA DFS Course Fit and Stats: The 2023 Charles Schwab
As exciting as Majors are, it’s always nice to return to a standard week with a strong course fit model, which is exactly what we have here at Colonial CC. A brief reminder of the thought process behind and execution of the course fit model: Golf is the only sport such that the “arena” […]
FTN Staff
PGA
Bets
2023 PGA Championship Betting Preview
The options in the PGA betting markets are wide, and while there are several ways to attack those markets, outright bets (or picks to win the tournament — outright) are going to be a large part of the key focus in this article. The theory is that outrights, being low-probability events, are harder for books […]
Kyle Murray