Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The PGA Tour has the week off so the DP World Tour will fill in the void with the Qatar Masters.
The field strength is relatively weak, but the course is a familiar one, so let’s dive in to see what kind of bets might catch our eye.
Course Fit
The host venue this week is Doha Golf Club.
This exposed layout is about a mile from the coast and wind has certainly played a part in many of the past editions.
The course was renovated a few years ago and paspalum turf was installed, with last year being the first time we saw that in competition.
This grass is getting more and more common and here are some of the most consistent performers on paspalum over the last two years. A “consistent week” is any event played on paspalum where a golfer’s performance would be strong enough to make the cut in an average PGA Tour event.
7 consistent weeks
Matthieu Pavon
6 consistent weeks
Alexander Bjork
Adrian Otaegui
Pablo Larrazabal
5 consistent weeks
Thorbjorn Olesen
Rasmus Hojgaard
Zander Lombard
Richard Mansell
Fabrizio Zanotti
Matthew Jordan
Edoardo Molinari
Scott Jamieson
The field-average paspalum consistency rate this week is around 30%, but this bunch posts consistent weeks at an 80% clip so honing in on some of these names should get us some names in the mix over the weekend.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Not many surprises on the list, other than perhaps FTN favorite Ryo Hisatsune not being in the top 10 of odds. Of course, he’s just below this, sitting at 11th on the odds board at +3500 so the oddsmakers are finally starting to give him some respect.
Finish Position Market
The outright markets are most common when looking at golf bets, but there is plenty of value to be found in the other markets.
Marcus Kinhult Top 20 Finish
Best available: +350 (PointsBet)
Worst available: +250
The Swede enters the week amidst a bit of a slump, finishing outside of the top 40 in six straight starts.
Prior to that, he twirled three straight top 20s with two of those coming on the PGA Tour.
What really catches my eye in his past performance at Doha GC. He’s lapped the field by at least 1.5 shots in six of his 10 rounds played at the course, resulting in a pair of third-place finishes.
If you’re feeling very aggressive, or see his outright number drift, then that could be worth a dabble too but given the state of his recent form, I think the top-20 market provides a reasonable target at a nice +350 price.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the discord to get those bet alerts.
It may feel like a down period for PGA betting or PGA DFS but I’m extremely pumped for this FedEx Fall Series. Use promo code CULP when signing up for FTNBets and FTNDaily to get a 10% discount while staying sharp in the fall. I think it’s going to be a very fun finish to 2023 with so much of the competition having their attention stolen away by NFL.
