Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The PGA Tour season comes to an end this week with the RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club. There is still Tiger’s event next week and a few DP World Tour events to keep us busy over the holidays, but this is the last official Tour event, so let’s go out in style.
Course Fit
The first stop of my weekly journey is course fit. Baseline stats are king, but even the best of golfers get shut out by a poor course fit sometimes. On the flip side, some golfers elevate from the fringe and become viable betting options when playing on courses that suit their game.
This week we have a pair of courses at Sea Island Golf Club. Historically, there are three split stats that have popped here. Performance on short courses, performance on coastal courses, and performance on less-than-driver courses.
Can we find some names that have shown upside in all three conditions? Here are the golfers that have shown a top-20 rate at least two-times greater than the field, in all three key splits:
- Russell Henley
- Corey Conners
- Brian Harman
- Denny McCarthy
- Cam Young
- Si Woo Kim
- Keith Mitchell
- Taylor Montgomery
- Matt Kuchar
Killa Keith is a Sea Island resident, so this is a home game for him. He’s played well on similar setups in the past and arrives with some motivation, needing a big finish to crack The Next 10 in order to secure a spot in the first two signature events of the 2024 schedule.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
We see six of the nine names from the course-fist list also show up on the top of the board. Could there be value in the other three names, though? Matt Kuchar is listed just below at +4000 while Keith Mitchell is +5500 and you have to scroll a bit to find Taylor Montgomery (+7500).
Finish Position Market
The outright markets are most common when looking at golf bets but there is plenty of value to be found in the other markets.
Taylor Montgomery Top 20 Finish
Best available: +335 (BetRivers)
Worst available: +300
Montgomery stormed out of the gate last season but faded in the spring and summer. He went through a stretch where his adjusted strokes gained numbers were negative in nine of 10 events. He’s found his groove again in the fall, though, with positive adjusted SG numbers in four of his last five lead-in starts.
When you look at his performance on similar course setups, Montgomery was one of nine golfers to check all three boxes, shown in the list on the course-fit section above. He is easily the cheapest option of that bunch, in terms of odds.
When you dive into the lead-in stats of past contenders at Sea Island Golf Club, we see driving accuracy, around-the-green, and putting over-represented compared to the average Tour event. Montgomery isn’t going to wow anyone with his precision but around-the-green and putting are two of his biggest strengths.
Do we have any course history to confirm our notion that Sea Island might suit him well? We do, Montgomery made his debut last year and posted a T-15 finish. With his simmering form and strong course-fit base, I will gladly take this +335 number in hopes of him repeating that 2022 performance.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
The fall has been good to us with recent outright hits of Ryo Hisatsune in France and Erik van Rooyen in Mexico. Matti Schmid and Vince Whaley gave us each-way sweats last week. Use promo code CULP when signing up for FTNBets and FTNDaily to get a 10% discount while staying sharp in the fall.
