NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The PGA Tour is back in action this week for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
This is the second event of the FedEx Cup Fall Series, and it’s a good indicator of what kind of fields we should be expecting over the next six weeks. Let’s dive in and discuss what players might pop at the Country Club of Jackson.
Course Fit
The first step of the process is always to evaluate the course.
This week’s host venue is the Country Club of Jackson. It’s a par 72 that stretches out to nearly 7,500 yards. On a closer look, you’ll notice that nearly all of the par 4s still play under 450 yards so it’s not a course that requires power.
When you sift through past quotes, you get hit with a ton of bermudagrass talk. It’s hard to get through a presser without them mentioning the turf.
With comfort on the grainy greens, who has shown big finish upside on bermuda? Looking at the last two years of events, here are the top big-finish producers on bermuda, looking for events were a golfer gains five-plus adjusted strokes:
+5
Keith Mitchell
Ben Griffin
Alex Smalley
Adam Svensson
+4
Luke List
Joel Dahmen
Tom Hoge
Trey Mullinax
Dylan Frittelli
Max McGreevy
Stephan Jaeger
Mitchell is probably the least surprising name to find on the list because he’s been very vocal about his love of bermuda. Griffin calls Sea Island home so he’s getting a lot of practice reps on bermuda and that is the case for most of these names, as well.
Check out the Splits Stats page for a complete look at bermuda performance versus baseline.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
It’s an ugly board but one we should expect to see more of this fall, with so many of the superstars on the bench.
First-Round Leader Market
The outright markets are most common when looking at golf bets but there are loads and loads of different markets offered each week.
Ben Griffin First-Round Leader
Best available: +6000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Worst available: +5000
This is not a market I usually dive into, but it caught my eye this week as I see the potential for Griffin to go low at the CC of Jackson.
First, when you look at Griffin’s three best finishes of his young career you see they came at Port Royal, Sedgefield and Waialae CC. Those are all three courses that landed in the correlated-course section this week.
Next, I am reminded that multiple times in the last year Griffin has tweeted about firing a ‘59’ at his home course, Sea Island. Some golfers are made for Monday Qs and FRLs while others play better on tough, major-championship setups. It’s clear that Griffin falls in the first category given his low-round potential.
Griffin also shows up on the big-finish list on bermuda, another positive working in his favor this week.
There haven’t been any distinct AM-wave advantages in the past here and the current Thursday forecast is pretty event. I like the chances of Griffin firing at least one ultra-low round and this looks like a good number to take the chance that it’ll come on day one.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. I’ve already added a few outrights and may find one or two more before Thursday. Hop in the discord to get those bet alerts.
It may feel like a down period for PGA betting or PGA DFS but I’m extremely pumped for this FedEx Fall Series. Use promo code CULP when signing up for FTNBets and FTNDaily to get a 10% discount while staying sharp in the fall. I think it’s going to be a very fun finish to 2023 with so much of the competition having their attention stolen away by NFL.
