Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
From ruckus to respect, the PGA Tour heads from TPC Scottsdale over to Riviera Country Club for this week’s Genesis Invitational. This is Tiger’s event, and this year it features a 70-man field with interesting cut-line rules of Low 50 and Ties (or anyone within 10 shots of the lead after 36 holes).
Attracting a star-studded field year after year, 63 of the 70 golfers have played this event at least once. With loads of history to lean on, let’s see what works well here and then take a peek at the betting board to see what stands out.
Course Fit
Riviera CC is a classical course that favors placement and strategy. At least that is the narrative. However, reality paints a different picture.
Grabbing a five-year sample of previous results, it showed that just 34% of top-15 finishers at Riv arrived with positive driving accuracy numbers. Based on the PGA Tour averages, you would expect that number to sit around 54%.
On the flip side, over 78% of contenders at Riv arrived with positive driving distance numbers ahead of their big finish at Riviera CC. The Tour average expectations would be 63% based on the field I captured.
We should look to target big hitters and/or elite irons players, while golfers who typically struggle with accuracy issues are not heavily punished at Riv since there are no water hazards and not as many big numbers coming from errant drives.
I love these kinds of weeks, because the majority of narratives based on quotes or architecture snobs are basically the exact opposite of what the data says.
As Bubba Watson put it, “You’ve got room off the tee. And when I say room off the tee, not that the fairways are wide. The tree lines are wider. Some of the trees are missing, so I can play out of it.”
There are more factors to consider, but let’s rank the field on these key categories of distance and approach play, and also assume more inaccurate golfers will get a bump due to the lack of hazards. This can give us an interesting “course fit snapshot” of names that might be undervalued heading into the week.
Woodland drops to fourth if you just take the 2024 stats, but this definitely looks like an interesting spot for him to bust a slump. He’s 0-for-3 since returning from his brain surgery. I am seeing some value on him in the T10 and T20 markets.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Hovland and Schauffele both skipped last week’s event in Phoenix, but they slot right back in toward the top of the board at Riv.
Wyndham Clark missing from this list is interesting, since he is dialed in with his irons right now and checking all of the boxes you’d want to see at Riv.
Beyond the Outrights
While outright bets capture attention, it’s also nice to explore alternative markets for bankroll sustainability by using placement markets for a balanced approach of more consistent weekly wins.
Sahith Theegala Top-5 Finish
Best available: +700 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Worst available: +500
Theegala has been somewhat of a favorite for us here at FTN this year, and I will continue to embrace the variance this week.
Sahith is a little wild off the tee at times and is well aware of the fact (obviously). When you listen to his interviews, he talks about liking any course that doesn’t punish missed fairways. Last week, he said desert golf is so great for him because a missed fairway is not always trouble, and there is the chance to escape. That is also the case at Riv, as pointed out by the Bubba quote from above.
Looking at his range out outcomes, I have Theegala ranked just 27th in this field when it comes to expected Top-40 rate, but he is fourth in expected Top-5 rate. When his driver is clicking, or he plays a course that allows for some misses off the tee, his top-5 upside is as good as any golfer outside of the top tier of superstars.
That was the first play that stood out to me this week, but keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays and hop into the Discord to get those bet alerts.
