NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The 2024 PGA Tour season has opened with a pair of longshot winners. Chris Kirk won the Sentry at 200/1, and Grayson Murray followed it up as a 400/1 winner. Now we head to PGA West for The American Express which has seen three of the last five editions won by golfers with odds exceeding 150-to-1.
Let’s dive into the split stats to see if any longshots pop off the page this week.
Course Fits
With three courses in the rotation, there is temptation to dissect each one and dive really deep. Too deep. Instead of succumbing to analysis paralysis, we focus on past performances across all three courses. Notable trends emerge in the form of two split-stat categories – past performance on short courses and easy courses. These metrics prove crucial in predicting future success at PGA West.
Highlighting golfers who significantly improve their top-20 rates compared to their baseline, names like Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy, Joel Dahmen, Kevin Kisner, Kevin Yu, Alex Noren and Matthew NeSmith emerge as potential value options to watch on the betting board.
What about the big names? If we look at the 10 best golfers in terms of top-20 rates on short and easy courses, half of them are outperforming their baseline. Those golfers are Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Cam Davis and J.T. Poston. While many superstars prefer a tougher test, that’s not historically been the case for this five-pack of big names.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
The oddsmakers have the “Big Three” in their own tier compared to the rest of the field and my numbers agree with that sentiment. So do we want to challenge the big three, look for an outright market that excludes them, or fire at other finish-position markets? Let’s start with the other markets
Beyond the Outrights
Scheffler, Cantlay and Schauffele’s dominance at the top may seem imposing, but there’s still ample equity to exploit. Instead of directly competing with the top-tier trio, strategic focus can shift to other finish-position markets, where opportunities abound without facing the Big Three head-on.
Cam Davis Top 20 Finish
Best available: +300 (BetRivers)
Worst available: +220
The Aussie has been hit-or-miss to open the 2024 campaign. He was a mess at the Sentry but rebounded at Waialae to find himself with a first-round lead and T-4 at the midpoint. Davis faded over the weekend, but I saw enough at the Sony to know that great play is possible.
Looking at the last 12 months, Davis ranks 18th in the field in top-20 rate, implying a +215 fair market price. If we isolate easy courses and short courses over the last two years, he ranks 8th in the field in top-20 rate, with a fair price of +150 based on splits alone.
So, to find him at +300 right now, he must have terrible course form, right? Nope. He is 3-for-4 at the AmEx with a notable third-place finish in 2021.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
