Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Rising from our holiday hibernation, the PGA Tour is gearing up to kick off the 2024 season with a splash in Hawaii at this week’s Sentry. Forget the Tournament of Champions; it’s evolved with a more extensive lineup, and the old name just didn’t cut it anymore.
Let’s dive into who’s making waves on the golf course betting scene this week.
Course Check
First things first – sizing up the course. Kapalua throws a par 73 at you, with just three par 3s, a setup that’s a green light for scoring. Wide-open fairways and an overall resort-style vibe make birdies feel like a walk in the park. There’s a handful of holes boasting birdie or better rates over 37.5 and another five with a birdie rate over 20 percent.
Some golfers thrive on similar courses where you have to put your foot on the gas and never let up while others prefer to be challenged and gain their edge by scoring (or avoiding big numbers) on tough holes.
Looking at a long-term sample of performance on easy courses, here are the 10 golfers with the highest rate of top 10s:
Patrick Cantlay
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Jordan Spieth
Tony Finau
Sungjae Im
Brian Harman
Hideki Matsuyama
Tom Kim
Tommy Fleetwood
Cantlay is an assassin when scoring is easy. He is one of the few golfers that took full advantage of the new fall schedule, though, shutting it down after the Ryder Cup to enjoy his wedding and recharge for 2024. Will there be too much competitive rust?
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Aberg catches the eye – he’s in the superstar price range right off the bat this year. Can he live up to the hype against stronger competition at the Sentry? Only time will tell.
Beyond the Outrights
Sure, outright bets are cool, but don’t sleep on the hidden gems in other markets.
Tommy Fleetwood Top-10 Finish
Best available: +225 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Worst available: +200
Fleetwood stayed active in the fall with four DP World Tour events played. That includes a runner-up finish at DP World Tour Championship, so he has some good “recent” results on his resume.
He doesn’t have any course experience at Kapalua but ranks sixth in expected top-10 rate for me this week. His fair odds based on my number would be closer to +175 so it was a pleasant surprise to see him check in at +225 over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
As you may have noticed, he ranked 10th in the long-term look at big finishes on courses with easy scoring environments so Kapalua should suit him well.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the discord to get those bet alerts.
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