Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the hottest ticket in town, the WM Phoenix Open, where PGA Tour golf collides with a rowdy desert party. Known affectionately as the People’s Open or the Greenest Show on Grass, this event held at TPC Scottsdale draws in the largest crowds in all of golf, creating an electrifying atmosphere that leads right up to the Super Bowl. But hey, before you hit the betting board, let’s dive into what makes this course unique and which golfers might just hit it big this year.
Course Fit
With a backdrop of rambunctious crowds and a plethora of risk-reward holes, the WM Phoenix Open isn’t your average golf tournament. In fact, it’s often said to carry the pressure akin to a major championship. No wonder then that eight of the last nine winners here also boast at least one major victory under their belts.
So, what’s the secret sauce to conquering Scottsdale? It’s all about the drivers. As Keegan Bradley once remarked, “I love coming out to a course like this where you can pound driver.” And it’s not just him; Byeong Hun An echoed the sentiment, emphasizing the importance of carrying bunkers with those monster drives.
Even after the renovations, big hitters are getting rewarded here. Koepka added this in 2022, “I think you see a lot of guys that bomb it that play well here, a lot of guys that fade it. If you can carry it 295, maybe 300 off the tee you can carry a few things that other guys can’t, and it can really shorten some holes and really help in the shortening them.”
With that in mind, let’s focus on golfers that play well on driver-heavy courses but also mix in past performance out West and also factor in how well a golfer fares on courses with similar overseeded turf.
You can head over to the PGA Splits page to factor in the split stat categories you want to see this week. When I look at the three splits I just mentioned, here are the 10 names that pop the most in terms of overperforming their baseline expectations.
Patton Kizzire
Jake Knapp
K.H. Lee
Taylor Montgomery
Scott Stallings
Seamus Power
Victor Perez
Davis Thompson
Alex Noren
Kevin Yu
Sure, they might not boast the flashiest baseline stats, but they’re worth a look this week, especially in the top 40, top 20 or head-to-head markets.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
After a string of longshot winners, the books are still not willing to budge at the top of the board. They have the back-to-back champ, Scheffler, priced at +500 which is about as low as it gets for a PGA Tour event. He certainly deserves the price tag when you look at his long-term form and course history. It should be noted there are “Without Scheffler” markets if you want to put some cash on the favorite and then also swing on another name to finish first or second. .
The outrights are fun to fire at, and often lead to the largest returns over the course of a season but also hit more sparingly. So, I like to sprinkle in some other finish-position bets that hit on a more consistent basis. Here is one that popped out this week.
Adam Scott Top 20 Finish
Best available: +230 (Bet365)
Worst available: +188
The Aussie ranks ninth in the field in weighted baseline performance and he checks in at fourth best when isolating the three split stat categories that I previously mentioned. That’s what we like to see, a golfer that shows value with his baseline stats alone but also outperforms his baseline on similar setups.
Looking at his recent form he also checks the boxes I like to see. He has gained at least five adjusted strokes in seven of his last nine events. I also talked about targeting great drivers and Scott has gained strokes off-the-tee in 14 of his last 15 measured events.
Buckle up because the Phoenix Open is always a wild ride. Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays (before and during the event). Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
