Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The 2023 Ryder Cup is just around the corner, so it’s fitting for the DP World Tour to head to The K Club this week for the Irish Open, a former Ryder Cup venue.
This inland, parkland track hosted the 2006 Ryder Cup, which ended in a European landslide, winning 18.5-9.5 that week.
The teams are now finalized for the 2023 edition in a few weeks, so cross that narrative off your list of potential angles, although you could play the “chip on his shoulder” angle for golfers that feel they got snubbed (Meronk perhaps).
Course Fit
The first step of the process is always to evaluate the course.
The K Club hasn’t hosted this event since 2016, when Rory McIlroy surged late to win by three shots.
When seeing Rory at the top, you may lean to big hitters but the rest of the top 10 was littered with short knockers. The course has also seen some tweaks since we saw it last. I’m not going to focus on distance or accuracy specifically, but I do want some comfort in the region or top performance on poa annua greens.
Who has a history of posting big finishes in the GB&I region? Here are the golfers with at least three top-20-worthy performances (relative to an average PGA Tour field):
6:
Tyrrell Hatton
Shane Lowry
5:
Rory McIlroy
4:
Connor Syme
Billy Horschel
Ryan Fox
3:
Thomas Detry
Adrian Otaegui
Ewen Ferguson
David Law
Antoine Rozner
Thorbjorn Olesen
Grant Forrest
Richard Mansell
Fabrizio Zanotti
Sean Crocker
Jamie Donaldson
Adam Scott
This would be my starting point when looking for big-finish upside this week. I like to see that a golfer has shown a high ceiling when playing in similar weather conditions with similar grass types which regional splits do a good job of capturing.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Rory McIlroy is a massive favorite, as he should be. Of course, the last time we saw him, he was fighting through back spasms at East Lake. If he’s been taking it easy, then we may see him need to shake off some rust before going full gear. That is a big ‘if’ but does provide some potential value down the board.
Finish Position Market
The outright markets are most common when looking at golf bets. but the finish-position markets can provide some value too, especially with names that are unlikely to win but no stranger to poking their heads into contention.
Ryo Hisatsune Top 20 Finish
Best available: +350 (BetRivers)
Worst available: +280
I talked about comfort in the region, but when it comes to potential rising stars, I will let that slide. Ryo doesn’t have the GB&I reps that I would hope to see but he continues to be underpriced in the betting markets.
The 20-year-old surged onto the DP World Tour scene early in 2023 and he’s found his groove again lately. Hisatsune has top 20s in five of his last seven starts. If you look at DP World events only, he has four straight top-20 finishes.
Let’s keep riding the hot sticks with Ryo.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays this week. I will also provide some prrojections and rundown thoughts for the DFS side. You can slide into the Discord to join that party.
It may feel like a down period for PGA betting or PGA DFS, but I’m extremely pumped for the upcoming FedEx Fall Series. Use promo code CULP when signing up for FTNBets and FTNDaily to get a 10% discount while staying sharp in the fall. I think it’s going to be a very fun finish to 2023 with so much of the competition having their attention stolen away by NFL.
