2023 BMW Championship Betting Preview

The PGA Tour moves from Memphis to Chicago this week for the second event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. 

There are just 50 golfers left standing, so we can dive into the entire field rather easily. Finding a fit for the course is always the starting point of my betting process, so let’s check out what Olympia Fields Country Club has to offer. 

Course Fit

We have just one year of recent history at Olympia Fields CC — it hosted the 2020 BMW Championship, which played incredibly firm and fast. The winner, Jon Rahm, took home the hardware with a 4-under tally on the week. That sounds more like a major championship than a regular Tour stop. 

What did the underlying stats tell us that week in regards to course fit? 

The field landed under 50% of the fairways that week and the rough was thick and penalizing. We’ve seen that recipe before, and it generally results in the big hitters having a field day. When the fairways are tough to hit for everyone, that puts an emphasis on carry distance and when you have thick rough, that also gives an edge to bigger hitters who have the power to whack it out of the rough and also have the advantage of hitting less club from the thick stuff. 

The lead-in form charts from the 2020 BMW Championship paint that exact picture. 

When you look at the golfers who went on to post top-15 finishes at the 2020 BMW, 73% of them were longer than Tour average in the lead-up to the event. On the flip side, only 27% of them were hitting more fairways than the field in their 24 lead-in rounds. 

It’s only a one-year sample, which needs to be noted, but if golfers are talking about tight fairways and thick rough again in their pre-tourney pressers then we should lock and load the heavy hitters. 

The first five names that stand out if we focus solely on distance and heavily discount accuracy include Byeong Hun An, Taylor Moore, Jon Rahm, Sam Burns and Patrick Rodgers. 

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

The big three are still commanding a big price but Cantlay has snuck into the conversation at the top after his close call last week in Memphis. 

Odds Shopping

The PGA betting universe features a wide range of prices across various sportsbooks. That is certainly the case in the outright market but also holds true down the line across the top 10, top 20, and even top-30 markets. Using our prop shop tool is vital when it comes to saving time and money betting golf. 

Patrick Rodgers Top 20 Finish

Best available: +275 (BetRivers)
Worst available: +230

You have to scroll all the way to the bottom of the board to find this play. That lets us know it’s not a play that is going to hit every time, but it should hit more than enough times to pay off this +275 price tag. I have him graded out closer to +250 and there is a lot to like about the play that isn’t even included in that price. 

First, as you may have seen above, he’s one of the names that pop if the course plays similar to the 2020 BMW which saw an emphasis on power over precision. Rodgers ranks 13th in driving distance over the last 24 rounds but fifth-to-last in fairways gained. 

Second, we are playing in the Midwest and Rodgers has Indy roots. He should be very comfortable with the weather and turf conditions. 

Rodgers was the first play that caught my eye but keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker as well as the discord for more plays from Alex and myself. 

It may be playoff time but golf is unlike other mainstream sports. There is no true offseason so it’s still a great time to join FTNBets and FTNDaily. The Fall Series should provide a lot of opportunity to gain an edge, especially on the DFS side, when most of the field may be distracted by NFL. Use promo code CULP when you sign up to save some dough.