Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As I sit here on the first real snow day of the season in Iowa, I found myself wishing I was in Hawaii like the 144 golfers getting prepped for the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club.
Then I go to check the forecast at Waialae and see flooding nearby at the Monday Qualifier and even more precipitation in the forecast. They may be bartering sunscreen for umbrellas this week. I guess the weather isn’t always ideal in paradise, after all.
Let’s dive into the weather and split stats to see if any bets pop off the page.
Weather Comps
I just talked about all of the rain in the forecast this week at Waialae. For many gamers and gamblers, they look at weather solely for the purpose of wave stacking. We can also use the forecast to make an educated guess on how the course will play.
This week, we have a pretty good comp. The 2020 edition of the Sony was played in soft conditions. We have quotes from the VP of Rules that week saying Waialae was “at capacity” in terms of the amount of water it can take on. There were also wind gusts up to 40 MPH during round one and two that week. We may not see the wind rise to that level this week, but the early-week forecast does call for gusts over 30 MPH at times. The winning score that week was Cam Smith at just 11-under, which matches the toughest winning score at the event since 1999.
With early-week wind in the forecast, let’s take a look at the amount of made-cut worthy performances over the last two years, isolating windy weeks.
Matt Fitzpatrick checks in at numero uno with 11 made-cut worthy weeks in the wind. Right behind him are Tyrrell Hatton, Gary Woodland, and Brendon Todd (10). Golfers with nine include Hideki Matsuyama, Aaron Rai, and Chris Kirk.
These would be our top-tier wind performers in terms of consistency. Feel free to reach out in discord if you want the list expanded any more.
One thing that stands out is there being three Englishmen on the list, one from Kansas, and two former Sea Island residents. Past experience in windy conditions seems to be their secret sauce.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Last week we hit Theegala and An with long-shot, each-way bets. They’ve both seen their odds soar after the big finish. You may also notice that all 11 of these golfers played last week. When people cite the “trend” of Sony winners having played the week before, remember to think about the expected win equity when most of the best names at the Sony will have gotten warmed up at Kapalua. Elite golfers won’t be making the trip to Hawaii just for the Sony, they prefer to get more bang for their buck and make it a two-week stay.
Beyond the Outrights
While outright bets grab the spotlight, don’t overlook hidden gems in other markets.
Aaron Rai Top 20 Finish
Best available: +300 (Bet365)
Worst available: +210
Rai won’t check the box of that “played the Sentry” trend I mentioned above, but as you may have noticed, I’m not particularly fond of trends like that anyway.
However, this Englishman did find his way onto the wind list I shared above, and also played seven times in the fall, twice on the PGA Tour and five times on the DP World Tour. He ended 2023 with back-to-back top 10s.
Looking at course history, Rai has settled for a missed cut and T-61 finish in two tries at Waialae. He crushed on approach in year one and overperformed off-the-tee last year. Both years he’s been a mess with the short game so there is plenty of room for improvement there, in his third look.
Dating back to the Colonial in May, he’s bagged top 20s in seven of his 16 starts. With some course experience now under his belt and wind in the forecast, I like his chances of adding another top 20 to his resume.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the discord to get those bet alerts.
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