Jayden Daniels vs Caleb Williams
Jay Felicio
After a trio of longshot winners to open the 2024 PGA campaign, we head to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. With a tougher test on hand, there is a good chance for that longshot trend to reverse itself this week.
Let’s dive into the split stats to see what names stand out as potential favorites and what value plays might be worthy of a look, as well.
Course Fits
Last week in the desert we saw a three-pack of courses that were short and set up for easy scoring. That won’t be the case this week as we get our first true test of the season in the form of Torrey Pines South. Golfers will see this beast of a course for three of the four rounds this week, if they make it through the 36-hole cutline.
Stretching nearly 7,800 yards in heavy air, this demanding track leaves no room for a dink-and-dunk approach. Dive into the split stats to uncover the key indicators of success, including performance on poa annua greens, comfort out West, mastery of long courses, and excellence on coastal terrain.
Let’s use those stats to find a list of favorites. Focusing on historical top-10 rates on similar setups, there is a top tier of Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay while names like Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day and Sungjae Im right behind them. Rounding out the “much better than the field” category would be names like Max Homa, Sahith Theegala, Nicolai Hojgaard, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau and Keegan Bradley.
That list is full of big favorites on the betting board, but Hideki Matsuyama (+6000) and Justin Rose (+8000) stand out as potential values. With so much win equity tied to these names, it would be very surprising to me if another long shot took home the hardware this week.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
There was a big three last week and this week there are four names all basically playing the role of co-favorite at Torrey Pines.
Beyond the Outrights
While outright bets capture attention, savvy bettors also explore alternative markets for bankroll sustainability. Explore placement markets for a balanced approach of consistent weekly wins.
Sahith Theegala Top-10 Finish
Best available: +335 (BetRivers)
Worst available: +300
When looking at the top few tiers of golfers this week, there are just three that pop on poa annua on a regular basis. These golfers improve over their baseline by more than half a shot per round. They are Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, and Sahith Theegala.
All three have California roots so it makes sense they would be comfortable on this turf that is so common in the Golden State.
It’s Theegala’s price in the market that catches my eye, though. According to the FTN Betting Model, he sports a 27% chance at the top 10, which would translate to a +270 number. We are getting much better odds over at BetRivers, providing a good balance of expected hit rate (around 27%) and upside (+335 payout).
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the discord to get those bet alerts.
