MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
The PGA Tour season has concluded, but there are still betting opportunities with this week’s Hero World Challenge. This event attracts 20 high-level golfers to play a no-cut event in the Bahamas just days after scarfing down some Thanksgiving turkey.
Run by Tiger Woods, he is also the main attraction this week, as he returns from a long injury layoff. He’s admitted that his game is rusty so let’s look elsewhere to see what bets might be worth consideration.
Course Fit
The first step of the process is always to evaluate the course.
When looking for course-fit clues, I like to consider recent play in the form of recent stat profiles or looking at split stats and find long-term trends of fitting a course.
When you have a strong field like this one it will be tough to find many weaknesses in stat profiles but there are still trends in the split stats, so let’s see what stands out.
The splits that pop at Albany are coastal, bermuda courses with easy scoring conditions. With a tiny field, I’m more focused on big-finish upside rather than cut-making consistency. So, here are the names that grade out above field average in all three splits in terms of big-finish upside.
- Scottie Scheffler
- Viktor Hovland
- Collin Morikawa
- Max Homa
- Tony Finau
- Matt Fitzpatrick
Hovland has edged out Scheffler in back-to-back editions and they are the two betting favorites this week. There is nothing surprising there. Could there by value with someone like Tony Finau or Matt Fitzpatrick, though?
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Five of the six names from the course-fit list above are also +1600 or lower on the odds board. Finau is the exception as he sits at +2200, arriving without his best stuff this summer and no recent reps since East Lake (and Netflix Cup fill-in).
Each-Way Market
The outright markets provide big payouts but it’s always a fine line of finding the magic for an entire week to fully capitalize and win a golf tournament. That is especially true in a strong field like this one. With that said, the each-way markets provide a good blend of big payouts while also giving you a little wiggle room if a golfer falters or gets chased down.
Matt Fitzpatrick +1400 To Win
(One-fifth each-way, four places)
This bet is available at BetRivers, while there are also a variety of each-way options at Bet365 if that book is available in your state and you want to customize your EW payout.
So, what do I like about Fitzpatrick this week? First of all, he’s stayed active in the fall with four DP World Tour starts since East Lake. That includes a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links, another event played in easy scoring conditions, but you also have to deal with coastal winds similar to Albany in the Bahamas.
When looking at lead-in form, he grades out third in the field in “floor” while ranking a respectable sixth in “ceiling.” He found his driver swing in August and has been on cruise control since then. He’s finished T12 and T13 in two previous tries at Albany but I like his chances of posting a new personal-best at the course this week.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the discord to get those bet alerts.
Use promo code CULP when signing up for FTNBets and FTNDaily to get a 10% discount while staying sharp in the fall. There are still a few more DPWT events after this week, and those events have been kind to us in recent months.
