Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2024 PGA Tour season has kicked off with a stunning display of four straight underdogs claiming victory. It’s crucial to appreciate the unpredictability that contrasts the favorite-heavy narrative of the previous season. As bettors, we should remember to not put any stock into “trends” that would suggest this means more longshots are going to win this year. Nor should we assume that a big favorite must win to “correct” the equilibrium.
Instead, we want to keep trusting the numbers that our models spit out while using our brain and eyeballs to make sure those models are finely tuned. We can also keep poking at the other finish-position markets in addition to the outrights.
Course Fits
Diving into the intricacies of split stats and weather patterns, our journey takes us through the sloppy terrain of Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill. With three rounds played at Pebble Beach, it emerges as the primary focus, boasting a par 72 course spanning under 7,000 yards. Even with the thick, marine layer, this is still a short track.
Pebble Beach is notorious for its unpredictable weather, and this year is no exception. A deluge of pre-tournament rain promises a softened course, reminiscent of events like the Memorial and Barbasol. Perhaps give a golfer a boost if they have shown consistent results at either of those events. The looming forecast predicts Sunday to be a windy affair, with gusts up to 50 MPH. Golfers like Spieth, Cam Young, Finau, Fitzpatrick, Burns, Kirk and Rose all show a bump in upside for me, if wind becomes a serious factor.
Wind may not become a serious factor until Sunday, though. Putting our attention elsewhere we can shine a light on short-course performance, performance on poa annua greens, or take a peek at which golfers play well out West.
Examining the split stats, these are the five names that show the largest jump over their baseline: Keith Mitchell, Tom Kim, Matthieu Pavon, Chris Kirk and Hideki Matsuyama. Is there a common theme here for this course-fit stars? They are generally well-rounded profiles when it comes to looking at the four categories of strokes gained, distance and accuracy.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
While the top of the DraftKings Sportsbook board may seem unattractive to some, considering the recent spree of longshot victories, it’s crucial to remember the limited field of 80 golfers. The win equity has less room to stretch into the long tails. There is one intriguing name outside the top 10 that is catching my eye, though. Let’s take a deeper dive.
Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 Finish
Best available: +320 (Bet365)
Worst available: +225
Tommy Fleetwood’s recent performance, despite a T-47 start, reflects a golfer in peak form. He’s popped for top-10 finishes in 9 of his last 15 worldwide starts. Evaluating his baseline stats and split stats, Fleetwood appears underpriced in the market by around 8 percent according to my model. The Top 10 market, with enticing odds at +320, offers a strategic sweet spot, balancing value and realistic expectations.
Fleetwood is also a tournament horse at the Dunhill Links Championship, another event known for sloppy weather. If they actually let players take on the brutal conditions on Sunday, there aren’t many I feel better backing in those conditions than Tommy Lad.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
