Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The big names in the world of golf are prepping for next week’s Ryder Cup. That leaves us with a dead spot on the PGA Tour schedule, but there is overseas action at the Open de France.
There are a dozen or so notable names in the field but not many household names. Let’s run through the course to see what golfers we should be targeting this week when looking at the betting board or tossing in a DFS lineup on DraftKings.
Course Fit
The first step of the process is always to evaluate the course.
Le Golf National is the host venue this week. It hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup, and the grown-up rough was seen to be an advantage for the European side that week as they had more plodders on the squad as the Americans brought names like Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson.
We do not want to target that style of golf. Instead, we want to focus on names that will gain an edge with their accuracy or just know how work their way around a tough course.
When looking at the big finishes on tough tracks over the last two years, here are the names that stand out:
+7
Min Woo Lee
+6
Ryan Fox
Jordan Smith
+5
Tom Kim
Aaron Rai
+4
Ewen Ferguson
Fox and Smith both are tied for third in course monster score at Le Golf National. They have the chops to contend on tough courses and have proven their affinity for this specific track. Earmark that for when you are trying to build a roster this week.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Five of the six names from the above list show up on this odds screenshot. Could there be value on the sixth, Ewen Ferguson?
Finish Position Market
The outright markets are most common when looking at golf bets, but the finish-position markets can provide some value too, especially with names that are unlikely to win but no stranger to poking their heads into contention.
Alexander Bjork Top 20 Finish
Best available: +120 (BetRivers)
Worst available: -105
Bjork checks a lot of boxes for me this week. His stat profile fits the course at Le Golf National as he leans on accuracy not distance. He’s used that precision to bag top 20s in all three visits (2017, 2017, 2022).
After that we check on his recent form and see he’s really vibing since April. The Swede has top-20 finishes in 11 of his last 15 events. It would be 11 of his last 13 if you remove the super strong fields of the Scottish Open (T-35) and The Open (T-41). That is not the level of competition he’ll be facing this week in France.
So, by the numbers I have this around a 50 percent chance to hit and his season-long numbers suggest that may be underselling his likeliness to contend in a field like this.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the discord to get those bet alerts.
It may feel like a down period for PGA betting or PGA DFS but I’m extremely pumped for this FedEx Fall Series. Use promo code CULP when signing up for FTNBets and FTNDaily to get a 10% discount while staying sharp in the fall. I think it’s going to be a very fun finish to 2023 with so much of the competition having their attention stolen away by NFL.
