NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The DP World Tour heads to Mauritius this week to unveil a new course, La Reserve Golf Links at Heritage Golf Club. The course is co-designed by Peter Matkovich and last week’s winner Louis Oosthuizen.
La Reserve reminds me a bit of a course we saw recently, Albany in the Bahamas. Both coastal courses look like they are a video game creation with beautiful terrain, beautiful views and well-manicured turf. Let’s dive in to see what golfers might like this test.
Course Fit
The first step of the process is always to evaluate the course. La Reserve Golf Links is a coastal, links course with views of the Indian Ocean on every hole. The course is lined with wall-to-wall paspalum as we often see when heading to a seaside location.
Plug all those location, course type and grass splits into the machine and out spits the top 10 in splits score:
- Jayden Trey Schaper
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Matthieu Pavon
- Casey Jarvis
- Dylan Mostert
- Marcel Siem
- Jeff Winther
- Antoine Rozner
- Sebastian Soderberg
- Daniel Van Tonder
There is a lot of ugly form on the list, but that is to be expected with a weak field like this one. Anyone on this list with some decent, recent reps would certainly have my attention.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Oosthuizen is arriving off a win at Leopard Creek and he’s the co-designer of this week’s course. It’s easy to see why he would open as the betting favorite. At +700 I will look elsewhere, though. .
Finish Position Markets
The outright markets provide big payouts but there is plenty of value in other markets, and those markets provide a steadier stream of reliable win rates. So, what stands out when looking at the finish position markets this week?
Jayden Schaper — Top-20 Finish
(+110, BetRivers)
The 22-year-old has been a favorite of ours all year in the DFS streets and this week he arrives with a ton of momentum. He’s opened the new season with three straight top-10 finishes. Schaper also posted a top 10 at this event last year, albeit on a different course.
The youngster leads the field in split stat score which looks at consistency and big-finish rates on similar setups and weights those rates accordingly. He’s yet to fully break out but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that he has all the tools to become a DP World Tour winner. At plus-money, I will gladly take the top-20 option in this week’s weak field.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker to see what other bets catch my eye. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
