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Chris Meaney
The DP World Tour gets a big boost in eyeballs this week with the PGA Tour taking a break before the fall series.
This week’s tournament is the Omega European Masters, hosted by Crans-sur-Sierre in the Swiss Alps. Let’s dig into the event to see what kind of bets pop off the page.
Course Fit
The first step of the process is always to evaluate the course.
As a par 70 that plays around 6,800 yards, at altitude, this course does not require power by any means.
You will see some golfers pull driver more than others but it’s not a course that gives you a big advantage for pounding the big stick. With tight and tree-lined fairways it really becomes a positional, strategic course.
Matt Fitzpatrick won here twice and that was the pre-power era for him.
When Rasmus Hojgaard won here, he said he was rather surprised to even be contending, “I don’t think the course as such really suits me. You can’t be aggressive off the tee, so everyone is playing from the same spots on the fairways. I don’t know what clicked that week.”
Let’s look at historical stats to see who has posted big finishes on short courses. Most golfers in the field have played between 5 and 15 events over the last two years on what I label short courses. Here are the names with the most top-20 worthy finishes:
5:
Matt Fitzpatrick
4:
Ewen Ferguson
Robert Macintyre
3:
Alexander Bjork
Richie Ramsay
Yannik Paul
Masahiro Kawamura
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Ludvig Aberg
Rasmus Hojgaard
Nicolai Hojgaard
A top-20 worthy finish looks at performance compared to an average, full-field PGA Tour event. So, we’d expect a higher rate of top 20s on the DP World circuit but all are getting graded on the same scale so this still helps us identify big-finish upside.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Bookmakers are tossing out two-time past champ Matt Fitzpatrick as a big favorite, despite him arriving straight from playing three straight playoff events back in the States. Will jetlag be an issue or will those recent reps have him fresh and ready to rock?
Finish Position Market
The outright markets are most common when looking at golf bets but the finish-position markets can provide some value too, especially with names that are unlikely to win but no stranger to poking their heads into contention.
Max Schmitt Top 20 Finish
Best available: +600 (DraftKings)
Worst available: +400
The 25-year-old German has found his groove with back-to-back top 15s in the lead-up. He twirled a T-12 finish at the ISPS Handa and followed that up with a T-4 finish last week at the Czech Masters.
Schmitt also landed a T-18 finish at the BMW International in June so he has three top 20s in his last four DP World Tour appearances.
I have him pegged at 33rd in weighted baseline performance with fair top-20 odds closer to +360 so we are getting plenty of value with this +600 number tossed out by DK Sportsbook.
This was the first bet that popped off the page but keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays this week. I will also provide some split stats and projections for the DFS side. You can pop over to the discord to join that party.
It may feel like a down period for PGA betting or PGA DFS but I’m extremely pumped for the upcoming FedEx Fall Series. Use promo code CULP when signing up for FTNBets and FTNDaily to get a 10% discount while staying sharp in the fall. I think it’s going to be a very fun finish to 2023 with so much of the competition having their attention stolen away by NFL.
