MSG Week 11 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 10.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.

CIN +1.5. O/U: 46.5
CIN: 23 | WAS: 23.5

Pace and playcalling 

The Bengals’ road woes are well known, going 0-17-1 in their last 18 road games (2-17-1, last 20). Winning and losing is one thing, but covering is what matters, and they are 13-7 ATS over that span. Cincinnati has averaged 27.8 PPG at home and 18.6 on the road. 

This is a great game from a pace-and-playcalling perspective, grading out first in combined pace and pass rate. Cincinnati is first, Washington fourth in neutral pass rate. Washington has gone even more pass-happy with Alex Smith under center (74% neutral, 73% overall). Cincinnati has also been very pass-heavy lately, asking Joe Burrow to drop back on 70% of plays (neutral). These teams also play fast — Washington is third in neutral pace, Cincinnati seventh. 

Playing fast and being efficient is not related, though. Washington is 28th in points and yards per drive (Cincinnati 24th), and these teams are 29th (Washington) and 24th in PPG. 

The Bengals have lost three of their last four, allowing 30.2 PPG over that stretch and 30.4 this year on the road. Washington has reached 27 points just two times this season (one being last week in Detroit) and has managed just 19.8 PPG at home. 

Washington averages 3.1 sacks per game (fourth); Cincinnati allows 3.6 (31st). Cincinnati averages 1.22 sacks per game (T-30th); Washington allows 3.3 (30th). 

Bengals

Joe Burrow is second in pass attempts per game and has used that volume to put up solid fantasy performances. It hasn’t been pretty at times — he’s 26th in ANY/A — mostly due to his offensive line, which ranks 31st in sacks and 27th in adjusted sack rate. As you can see using our FTN NFL Splits tool, his ceiling games have come against Cleveland (twice), and that’s about it. 

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Burrow has struggled against top pass defenses on the road (Pittsburgh/Baltimore), which is what this Washington defense has been (sort of). They feature a strong pass rush, which has limited Burrow’s effectiveness. He has one of the biggest clean/pressure splits on PFF, with a 49.0 passer rating under pressure and 103.9 when clean. That said, I still don’t see this secondary as scary against these talented WRs, we just saw Marvin Jones post 8-96-1 last week (Matthew Stafford put up an 8.1 YPA). They have only seen 29.3 pass attempts per game, which is the main reason they haven’t allowed much in passing production. Burrow is priced correctly (maybe a bit overpriced) at FD, but he’s appealing on DK at $5.5k in tournaments.

People who say there’s no difference between cash and GPP plays are mistaken. I’m not helping anyone by calling 12 QBs “cash game plays” — you should have one cash roster, and thus ONE QB can be our “cash game QB” (I put that in the Sunday AM update). By default, if we are rolling out ONE cash QB, the rest are, you guessed it, GPP.

Tyler Boyd continues his consistent season, seeing 8 targets (6-41-0), which was in-line with projection. Per our advanced DvP tool, Washington has allowed the fewest targets and yards to slot WRs this season. They haven’t faced a difficult schedule but did hold Cooper Kupp to 5-66-0 and Sterling Shepard to 6-39-0 on 8 targets. I see a similar game here for Boyd, he will get his 8-10 targets, 5-7 catches for 50-60 yards. He does lead the team with 5 end-zone targets, so if he scores, he will pay off his increased price tag. 

Tee Higgins (4 end-zone targets) was added to the injury report late but will play. He is having himself quite a rookie season, seeing at least 8 targets in six of eight games and averaging 5.3 receptions and 88.0 receiving yards over his last six games. Since Week 3, he is seventh in yards and tied for 14th in receptions. He moves around quite a bit, even in some good matchups against 5-foot-11 Ronald Darby and Jimmy Moreland. Looking deeper, he should have a lot of success on the right side.

Washington pass D per Sharp Football

Joe Mixon is OUT again, putting Giovani Bernard back in play. He has been priced up with Mixon’ extended absence but is still a solid play given what he has done in his three games as the RB1, averaging 12 carries for 43 yards in addition to a 4.0/30.7 receptions line on 5.3 targets and scoring 3 total touchdowns, good for 17.4 fantasy points per game on DraftKings. Washington just allowed Giants and Lions backs to average 176.5 total yards and two TDs.

Samaje Perine got 8 touches last week, but on a closer look, you see five of them coming once the team was down by 22 points and the game was well out of reach. He does have 5 red-zone touches to Bernard’s seven, which is the biggest risk he carries if you invest in Bernard.

Football Team

Alex Smith has 325-1-3 and 390-0-0 in his last two games (one start and one extended relief appearance). He dropped back 58 times in Detroit, but 25 were in the fourth quarter as they tried to come back from a deficit. It’s no surprise to see Smith better without pressure, completing 73.1% when clean and 27.3% under pressure. He has also used play-action to his benefit (18% of passes, 85% completion rate, first). Cincinnati is 31st in pressure rate, 30th in adjusted sack rate, so this is a spot where can roll him out at his low prices. 

The biggest issue with Washington putting up points is a 54.55% red-zone conversion rate over their last three games. Cincinnati could be the matchup they need to turn that around, allowing teams to convert 84.62% of their red-zone trips into TDs. 

Everyone targets running backs against Cincinnati, but they are middle of the pack vs. backs compared to bottom-eight against QBs. Antonio Gibson has only managed 65 yards on 19 carries in his last two games, which shows the power of the TD in fantasy — he has scoring three times to average 18.5 fantasy points per game in those two games. He now has a TD in six of nine games, which has his price up to its highest point ($5.8k and $6.5k). He is fifth in the league with 7 goal-line carries, so we can count on him getting opportunities (3.5 red-zone touches per game over his last three). Gibson could be in the Christian McCaffrey category if we could merge him with J.D. McKissic, who has been a mainstay in my prop bets at FTNBets. He is averaging 6.9 targets a game, 14.5 (8.0 receptions) with Smith and saw a season-high 3 red-zone touches last week, which led to his first TD. If Washington controls the game as a two-point favorite, McKissic can get scripted out (he was limited to 2 receptions for 16 yards in a 25-3 win against Dallas), but I would be surprised to see that with Burrow and the Bengals very capable of scoring.  

Logan Thomas has six targets in both games with Smith, averaging 3.5-50 with a TD over his last three. He’s not very sexy, but TE is a disaster this season, so guys like Thomas are viable. Cincinnati has been very generous to TEs, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game on 6 TDs in their last five games.

Terry McLaurin has been ultra-consistent, catching exactly seven passes in his past four games and putting up at least 90 yards in three straight. He moves around the formation (32% slot with Smith), so I am not focusing on William Jackson as his “matchup.” Cincinnati has been torched by boundary WRs, allowing 10-172-2 to Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool last week, 12-152-2 to Corey Davis and A.J. Brown, 9-166-1 to Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins, 5-108-0 to Marcus Johnson and 6-77-1 to Hollywood Brown in their last five games.

Core plays: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson

GPP only: Tee Higgins, Giovani Bernard (J.D. McKissic can also be used on that stack on DK), Washington DST

Stacks:

Washington: Alex Smith/Terry McLaurin/J.D. McKissic/Tee Higgins/Giovani Bernard
Cincinnati: Joe Burrow/Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd/J.D. McKissic/Terry McLaurin

NE -2.5. O/U: 48
NE: NA | HOU: NA

Pace and playcalling 

Play volume is an issue for Houston. They run the fewest plays per game, and New England allows the fewest. 

To give Houston some hope, the Pats have gone 3-1 to the OVER on the road, allowing 28 PPG on the road compared to 19.8 in New England (1-4 to the UNDER). 

Houston is 4-1 to the OVER on the road after the wind game in CLE, but is 1-3 to the UNDER at home. They are 25th in points scored (New England is 27th). 

These teams have faced the Nos. 1 and 2 highest rush rates against, with New England leading the way at 49.6%. New England is also the third-most run-heavy team on offense, behind only Minnesota and Baltimore. 

Both teams are in the bottom-13 in neutral pace, with Houston’s fifth-highest neutral pass rate being one of the only positive indicators for this to become a shootout. The scenario would have to be like in Seattle, where New England was forced to abandon the run to keep up with a high-scoring offense. It could happen if Houston comes out aggressive and puts up some early points, but that is a lot to ask for this team. Houston is 31st, New England 32nd in first-quarter points this season (27th and 30th, respectively, in first-half points). 

Patriots

Jakobi Meyers has overtaken Davante Adams in weighted opportunity, seeing a 34% target rate this season and a mind-blowing 41.67% in his last three games (59% of team air yards, first with 41% this season). He is third in fantasy points per route run and second in yards per route run, so there is nothing indicating this should stop. He only has 2 red-zone targets and no TDs, so the upside has not been there other than the 12-169-0 explosion against the Jets (WR4), with no other game above WR20. On DK, he is too cheap for the heavy usage ($4.9k) and should be popular, making him a good play for your WR3 in cash on that site. $6k on FD is also reasonable, but even a 7-60-0 game over there is 9.5 FP, which isn’t anything we need to worry about if he is going to be 15% owned. 

I haven’t been playing many Patriots this year, so it is weird to be on multiple players. But I like Cam Newton against a soft Texans D that appears to be thinking about the offseason already. He gets 3.1 red-zone carries per game, first among all QBs — that’s 75% of all the Patriots’ red-zone carries this season. Houston is 32nd in adjusted line yards allowed (Newton gets 10 carries and 41 rush yards per game), 30th in second-level and 32nd in open-field. They have allowed 11 rush TDs (should be 12 if not for Nick Chubb passing on that score last week), tied for second-most. At $6.2k and $7.6k, and all of Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Tom Brady off the main slate, Newton is my top four. The Texans are 30th in pressure rate, so he could have more success in the air than normal (68.58% completion rate allowed), They allowed 11 passing TDs and an average of 313 passing yards per game in four games before the wind bowl with Cleveland. 

Damien Harris has surpassed 100 rushing yards in three of his six games. He has splits like you would figure for an early-down rushing back. In the three Patriots wins he has played in, he is averaging 18.33 rush attempts and 107.67 rush yards with one score for 15.77 DK points per game. When they lose, he is nowhere to be found, averaging 10 attempts for 49 yards (no TDs). If you are with bettors (public and money are heavy on NE), Harris should get his work in a dream matchup (New England is third in adjusted line yards gained and third in second-level yards per carry). He is one of my favorite sub-$6k RBs on FD on the slate. I would not stack he and Cam, as they are competing for the same RZ/GL touches.

(One note: Sony Michel was activated from IR Saturday. He has practiced the last two weeks, so there’s a chance he’s involved Sunday. Check back Sunday morning for how I’ll handle that situation.)

If we could merge Rex Burkhead and James White together as one back, that would be useful. But I ignore them when are both active. The Patriots are using their fullback a lot this season (Jakob Johnson has 4 targets the last two weeks), which has these guys at low snap rates. New England does target backs at a very high rate still (30.8%, second), but neither of these guys has exceeded 5 targets in a game with both active in their last four games.

Texans

You have to toss out the game last week for Deshaun Watson — the Texans were pathetic and looked like they had no interest in being out there, so they should bounce back in the comfort of the dome. The Pats are 25th in pass completion rate allowed (68.16%), which is a far cry from 2019, when they were at 56% (first). They are also 31st in YPA allowed, as one of three teams giving up more than 8.2 yards per pass attempt (5.4 in 2019, first). Much like Washington, low attempts against have masked their inefficiency, allowing the fewest pass attempts per game (57.8 opponent plays is 32nd). Watson is also in the top-four in my QB ranks for this slate against the 32nd-ranked DVOA.

Duke Johnson, like all the Texans, did not look good in Cleveland. I think we need to toss that game out for all these players, and rather focus on his 95% snap share and 100% of RB carries. He is saddled with all the same problems David Johnson had, a 29th-ranked offensive line and a QB targeting RBs at a 15% rate (28th). Even in a game where checking down to your RB made a lot of sense, Duke only saw one target, which takes away most of his appeal.

Watson likes to throw to his WRs (sixth-highest rate, 71% over his last three games). Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are the players seeing most of that, with Randall Cobb being option C. Their matchups are like Watson’s — the volume has helped New England avoid allowing big numbers, but on a per-play basis they are nothing to worry about. Cooks has become the volume guy, leading in targets and catches after a slow start on his new team. Since missing Week 4 (and tossing out the Clevenad game), he has averaged 93 yards on 6.75 receptions per game. That is WR1 production, yet he is priced at as a WR2 even WR3 at $5.2k (DK) and $6.1k on FD.

Stephon Gilmore should be back and will likely matchup with Will Fuller. Gilmore is not as dominant as he was last season, but he still is not a guy I want to invest heavily against.

When both Jordan Akins and Darren Fells are in the lineup together, I ignore them. Pharaoh Brown has popped up lately too, making this group an easy fade.

Core plays: Damien Harris (prefer on FD), Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers (prefer on DK), Brandin Cooks

GPP only: Deshaun Watson, Duke Johnson

PIT -10. O/U: 47.5
PIT: 30 | JAX: 18.5

Pace and playcalling 

This is a mismatch to say the least, with the undefeated Steelers taking on the losers-of-eight-straight Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed 30.1 PPG (31st), while the Steelers have allowed 19.0 (third). The same thing applies for the offenses, with Pittsburgh averaging 30.1 PPG and Jacksonville just 22.1 (26th).

With Jacksonville being so bad, the Jaguars have seen the fifth-lowest pass rate against and passed at the second-highest rate. Pittsburgh is in the middle of the pack in terms of pass rate but has been much pass-heavier lately. In the Steelers’ first four games, they passed at 58% (12th, neutral), compared to 65% in their last six games (first). Even with at least a 7-point lead, Pittsburgh has kept passing, ranking second at 62% while playing at a top-10 pace.

Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger is only projected at 7% (DK) and 5% (FD) in our DFS ownership model, which has me very excited. I guess the blowout factor is why the numbers are low, but hopefully the pace-and-playcalling section explains why I am not too worried about it.

As I wrote last week regarding Aaron Jones, this Jacksonville run D is solid. They get beaten up as a result of being connected to a terrible offense and secondary, which leads to a lot of red-zone chances (4 red-zone trips per game, 1.3 giveaways per game). They are actually eighth in adjusted line yards allowed and have held their opponents to 60 rushing yards per game in their last three. If Pittsburgh comes out and fails to get James Conner going (again), behind their 31st ranked run-blocking offensive line (46.5 rushing yards per game, last three), expect them to go right back to the air, where Roethlisberger and that O-line have excelled.

The move makes sense — Pittsburgh knows the road to the Super Bowl goes through Patrick Mahomes, and as much as a good running game and defense sound, you better be able to throw up 30 points a game if you want to be the champs. In his last two games, Roethlisberger has averaged 381.5 air yards, which has yielded 309 passing yards and 3.5 TDs. This after averaging 217.6 passing yards on 248 air yards a game before that. Jacksonville is dead last in YPA allowed (8.5) and 31st in completion rate, allowing 310 passing yards per game in the last 3. Ben is my top QB on the slate.

This feels like last week’s with Tom Brady — we have our QB, and now we have to figure out who to stack him with. The first thing I will say is you can stack all three. A quarterback with two receiving options stack tends to have the most long-term success in GPPs, but going up to three pass-catchers has been proven to be a viable strategy as well. Last week, the three (Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson) combined for 70 DK points, which at their combined prices was 4.11x. When you add Roethlisberger’s 32 fantasy points, the four-person stack gave you 102 (4.3x). If you were to get 4.3x on your entire $50,000 salary cap, you would score 210.5 DK points.

Johnson remains the least expensive option, so I will start with him. If we remove his two injury games, he is averaging 10.33 targets for 6.0 receptions, 71.0 yards and 0.7 TDs (17.53 DK points). He and Claypool (32 targets in his last 3) move around a good amount, so they will get their chances against the backups for C.J. Henderson and (possibly) Sidney Jones. When the starters have allowed a combined 15-232-4 in coverage (in their last two games), you have to wonder what’s happening behind them. Henderson has landed on IR with a groin injury, while Jones is questionable after being limited all week. D.J. Hayden will return after a five-game absence, however, leaving Tre Herndon (78.6% catch rate in coverage) and seventh-round rookie Chris Claybrooks. Compare Claybrooks’ 5-9, 177 pounds to Claypool’s 6-4, 238. Claybrooks has played more than 50% of the snaps once this season and it didn’t go well, with Brandin Cooks burning him for 26 fantasy points in coverage.

Smith-Schuster has really come on of late to look like the 2018 version, averaging over 10 targets per game in his last four. He has stayed outside in 12 personnel in his last two games, which has given him a 12-snaps-per-game edge over Claypool. He has also emerged in the red zone, seeing 4 end-zone targets to pull him within one of Claypool. He is more expensive than the other two, which is why I have just slightly behind in my ranks, but the matchup is solid (Jacksonville has allowed 15.4 fantasy points per game to slot WRs according to our advanced DvP tool).

James Conner has busted in two prime spots, so I’m sure the DFS guys that don’t take any further than “the public if off, so now I am on” will like Conner as a 10-point favorite against Jacksonville, a team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs, with 10 rushing TDs. His Vegas prop is right back to 74 yards, like the past two games didn’t happen, but I’m not buying it. As I said, the O-line is not blocking, so he is averaging 2.8 YPC in his last three games.

Conner is not getting increased passing work since the Steelers target their backs at the lowest rate (11.4% last eight games), with just 11 RB targets in their last three games (8.9%). He could pay off with TDs — just a pass interference penalty or two in the EZ and a couple one-yard scores could do it — but I am not playing him in hope for TDs.

Jaguars

Jake Luton versus Pittsburgh is not something I care to invest in. Pittsburgh blitzes at the fourth-highest rate and is first in pressure rate and sacks per game. Luton has a 109.0 passer rating when kept clean (JAX, 10th in pressure rate allowed), but has predictably fallen apart with pressure, and has done so to epic proportions. In his two games he has a 0.8 passer rating (yes, that says 0.8), completing 23% of his passes with 2 INTs and 5 sacks (3.0 YPA on 27 dropbacks).

I love James Robinson, but this is not the week for him, since he will have to overcome negative gamescript and a tough matchup to get things done on the ground (Pittsburgh is second in adjusted line yards per carry and fantasy points per game allowed). That leaves playing him is as a run-back in a Pittsburgh stack as a receiver, after seeing him outsnap Chris Thompson 53-1 last week (2 receptions for 3 yards on 5 targets), and now Thompson is on IR. But even that is a stretch for me at $6.4k, since the Steelers cover backs so well in the pass and his chances in the redone likely limited (Pittsburgh is third in opponents’ red-zone chances).

Pittsburgh does not shadow with any CB, so D.J. Chark will see all the Steelers CBs — including slot corner Mike Hilton, who returns after missing Week 9. Laviska Shenault is OUT again, so Chark should see more than the 5-targets he got last week against the Packers. Collin Johnson is also banged up and is a game-time decision.

Pittsburgh does allow big pass plays (eighth-most completions of 20-plus yards), giving Chark appeal in a game that should have Luton passing a lot.

Keelan Cole and Chris Conley played all the WR snaps last week, seeing 7 and 8 targets, respectively.

Core plays: Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh DST

GPP only: D.J. Chark, EBRON 

**SAT UPDATE** 

I am putting more Ebron on my PITT stacks as a third option, and in two-player stacks with one WR + Ebron. On FD, I will be eating a lot of PITT DST chalk, as they could outscore a lot of RBs. It is tough on DK, but I have forced them in some LUs. I am also doing a two WR PITT stack with TAYSOM HILL at QB. A little unusual, but the thought is Ben gets 27 FP, Hill gets 24, and I take the $1.9k and get 4x with it

PHI +3. O/U: 45.5
PHI: NA | CLE: NA

Pace and playcalling 

This is an interesting matchup of contrasting styles. Philadelphia passes at the third-highest rate this season, Cleveland 30th. Philadelphia runs a lot of plays (seventh) and allows even more (second), while Cleveland runs the 27th-most and allows the 25th-most. Cleveland plays at the 10th-slowest pace, Philadelphia the sixth-fastest (neutral). So, again, strange game to handicap.

The Eagles are known as a good run defense, and while that is true (fourth in adjusted line yards), they have allowed 14 rushing TDs (9 to RBs) and the most 20-plus-yard runs (10, tied with Cincinnati and Houston). They have also allowed the most 40-plus-yard runs (3).

Philadelphia is 29th in yards and points per drive. Cleveland 17th in yards and 13th in points per drive.

Philadelphia remains good on paper (fourth in yards per drive), but have allowed 27-plus points in five of nine games, with their opponents (Washington, the Giants, Dallas, San Francisco) being the difference. When they have played games with winning records (the Rams, Pittsburgh, Baltimore), they have been smacked around, losing by an average of 9.5 points.

Philadelphia can’t protect (8.4% adjusted sack rate, 29th), which sets up a Cleveland defense that is middle of the pack in pressure rate, but get 2.4 sacks a game and 2.7 in their last three (Philadelphia, 3.9 sacks per game allowed).

Eagles

Carson Wentz was not going to keep up the rushing production (5 rush TDs in his first seven games). Without it, he showed us his true floor of 8.5 fantasy points in consecutive weeks. I like that he has some legit weapons back, but he’s been so bad it has gotten hard to watch. He has 32 danger plays (most) and 25 interceptable passes (most) and is 30th in clean pocket completion rate, 62nd in expected points (per Player Profiler).

Miles Sanders is one of those weapons, playing 72% of the snaps in his return. We got trolled by TDs from Corey Clement and Boston Scott, who only saw 5 combined touches, or he could have been the top back on the slate. He still posted 95 total yards on 15 carries and 2 catches (5 targets). Cleveland allows 4.38 adjusted line yards per carry and 40 RB receptions on just 49 targets. Sanders’ price is not as attractive this week, so he won’t be in my core, just a GPP play for those who MME.

**

Travis Fulgham had his moment with all the vacated targets, but with Dallas Goedert, Sanders and Jalen Reagor in the lineup, I am not sure what the expectation was while tied to a bad QB and bottom-four offense.

Goedert is the guy I have most interest in again, with my boy Reagor in a tough primary matchup with Denzel Ward (fourth in catch rate allowed). TE has been a complete wasteland this season, so we have to ignore the back-to-back duds he has had in his return and focus on his talent and usage in an offense that features the TE. Cleveland has been a solid source for TE production, with 5 TDs allowed. The wind has been a factor, but even with it they have allowed TEs to catch 21 of their last 25 targets (spanning their last five games).

Browns

Nick Chubb crushed me by not scoring that TD at 5% ownership at the end of last week’s game, but we move on. This rushing attack is high-volume and high-efficiency, putting Chubb in play in most weeks. It will be tough sledding against the Philadelphia front seven, but we are waiting for the home run with Chubb — he leads the league in breakaway run rate on 3.84 yards created per carry (first). When you combine elite talent (6.1 yards per touch), and a great blocking line and scheme (fourth in adjusted line yards, first in second-level yards, third in open-field rank), big plays happen.

Kareem Hunt outsnapped Chubb 38-28 last week, but I expect things to even out more in Chubb’s second game back. Still, I can’t gloss over a back that Hunt got 22 touches. Without as terrible weather in the forecast, I expect to see a bit more from Baker Mayfield and the passing attack, but this is still a top-three rush offense so Hunt will get his 15-20 touches per game. He out-targeted Chubb 5 to 1 last week and would be the likely passing-down back if this thing became a shootout, but Chubb seems to be the guy for TDs. They are annoying, a troll waiting to happen, but that keeps their ownership low and them in play if you are a multi-entry guy. I would probably get 7-10% Chubb and 2-3% Hunt if I was submitting 150 lineups.

Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper and Rashard Higgins have to be excited to play without a monsoon rolling through Cleveland. With the Browns playing with two TEs so much, Landry is playing more outside, which could put him in front of Darius Slay a bit, but that may actually be a positive in this matchup, with Philadelphia allowing the fewest of receptions per game to the slot (second-fewest yards). I don’t like playing WRs on low-volume offenses, but especially against a team that is unlikely to score enough to get them out of their high rush rate.

Hooper had just one catch for 11 yards, but that game was a joke. He was out there for 85% of snaps compared to 55% for Harrison Bryant, so we can count on him being the TE1 moving forward. Philadelphia has been a plus matchup for TEs prior to last week against the Giants. He is a solid TE option on sites where you can’t play a QB.

Core plays: Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders

GPP only: Austin Hooper, Nick Chubb, CLE DST, Hunt 

**SAT UPDATE**

There could be some rain, but I am not downgrading the TEs. I am upgrading Sanders, with MILES GARRETT on the COVID list. I am also adding Hunt on for MME. If it is a sloppy game, these teams will rely on their backs. 

ATL +4.5. O/U: 51
ATL: 23 | NO: 28.5

Pace and playcalling 

With a new QB in New Orleans, we can’t assume the playcalling tendencies will be what they were. The Saints have been in a bunch of fantasy-friendly games, going 7-2 to the OVER (4-1 at home). Going over against the Broncos is one thing, since their totals are usually in the 40s, but New Orleans always has targets clearing 50 (their games combine for 53.8 points on average).

New Orleans played slow with Drew Brees — 32nd in neutral pace, 22nd neutral pass rate. So I expect them to stay slow, rush even more, and run a lot of RPOs. That will be tested if Atlanta can score, which could expose Taysom Hill. Atlanta has also slowed it up, 15th neutral pace and a 57% neutral pass rate.

Both teams push their opponents into the pass, with Atlanta seventh and New Orleans first in rush DVOA. Atlanta has seen the fewest RB carries, New Orleans eighth-fewest.

Atlanta has won three of four since ditching Dan Quinn, scoring 30.25 PPG.

Falcons

Matt Ryan has passed for 318.5 yards a game and two TDs on a more balanced attack (36.75 pass attempts, 32.75 rush attempts) since the team jettisoned Quinn. Before the firing, they were 0-5 on 24.4 PPG, and Ryan averaged 294.4 passing yards and 1.4 TDs (41 pass attempts, 26 rush).

We should get back to the 40-pass-attempt range with Ryan, since New Orleans allows the second-lowest rush rate against and the fewest adjusted line yards per carry.

Todd Gurley continues to make me look bad, averaging 4.7 red-zone touches per game, which has him third in the league with 9 TDs. That means more than 39% of his fantasy points have been via the TD, thanks to Ryan and the passing offense (third-most yards per game, second-most red-zone trips). Unless he lucks into a couple more TDs, he is going to struggle in this matchup.

Julio Jones may not have to deal with Marshon Lattimore, who is a game-time decision. Lattimore held Atlanta receivers to 5-51-0 on 8 targets in coverage last season, and has done well against Mike Evans in shadow coverage this season. Per FTN Data, Lattimore has only shadowed those two times against Evans, shutting him out on 81% and 50% of his routes.

Jones has been the biggest benefactor of Quinn’s departure, averaging 106.25 yards on 9 targets and 7 receptions per game (23.63 fantasy points per game). Under Quinn, He averaged 5-71-0 for 13.1 FPPG. His worst game came in the one without Calvin Ridley, so him being healthy and a full go is a nonfactor. Ridley is also a top-10 WR play this week at sub-10%. I will stack these three superstars up on a higher dollar GPP team or two in a game stack.

Olamide Zaccheaus (limited with a knee injury, but should play) will fall back to WR4 duties, with Russell Gage in the slot. These guys and Hayden Hurst are most affected by Jones and Ridey being active. TE is a game of touchdown roulette, so Hurst remains in play on your Ryan stacks if you want to fade one of the two WRs. I will roll out the big boys in my main ATL stacks, leaving these secondary options for MME players.

Saints

Taysom Hill lands in a dream matchup, facing an Atlanta pass D allowing the most fantasy points per game to QBs in addition to the second-most passing yards and 22 TDs (most). They have lifted QBs who haven’t touched WR1 status otherwise, so why not roll him out here. His eligibility on FD has been discussed ad nauseam, so here it is quickly: On FD, I will be 100%, taking advantage of any galaxy brain hero who wants to fade a QB in the lowest-scoring and most inconsistent position in fantasy for the highest-scoring and most consistent position, at min. price.

DK is the more interesting play to discuss, at about 10% ownership. I would keep Tim Tebow in mind — he can get 160 passing yards (that is his prop), 50-60 rush yards (35, 54, 45 rush yards in consecutive games in limited snaps) and a TD (or two), and you hit value at his $4.8k price.

I am thinking Alvin Kamara gets more work on the ground, and will obviously be involved in the RPO schemes, but just assuming Hill can get him to 6 receptions and 50 receiving yards is not something I want to bet on (or against). The matchup is great for his skillset, with Atlanta vulnerable to the RB pass, but again, we don’t know how Hill is going to distribute the rock, and extra rush attempts isn’t why we pay up for Kamara. That said, he is still a top-three option on a slate without Christian McCaffrey and with Aaron Jones and Derrick Henry in tough matchups.

Latavius Murray should be in the mix for his 8-11 carries (possibly more with the QB change) — it’s just a rough matchup for early-down back with limited passing work against a plus rush D. All the other Saints, including Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook are out for me on my main lineups with everyone healthy and Hill under center. Again, he is projected for 160 passing yards, so we are chasing TDs in GPPs only.

Core plays: Taysom Hill, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Alvin Kamara, Matt Ryan

GPP only: Michael Thomas, Hayden Hurst, Jared Cook

DET -2.5. O/U: 46.5 (line from Saturday)
DET: 24.5 | CAR: 22

Panthers

Per the Panthers website and head coach Matt Rhule, Teddy Bridgewater will “truly be a game-time decision depending on how he feels and how I feel about how he feels.”

If Bridgewater ultimately isn’t able to go, Will Grier? will get his third NFL start or ?Phillip Walker? will get his first.

That is a major bit of news we need to properly handicap this game, which is why this game can’t be found on most sportsbooks. With that in mind, this is a Saturday night or possible Sunday morning, as the QB situation will influence the outlooks for Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel.

Lions

Detroit is limping into this game also, with Danny Amendola, Kenny Golladay and D’Andre Swift all OUT. Matthew Stafford, Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson have been limited, but are all expected to play. Game flow and script are dependent on the opponent, so we need to know Bridgewater’s status for Detroit also.

Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson become more interesting in a two-man committee, versus a three-man with a talented second-round rookie, especially in this plus matchup (25th rush DVOA). Johnson outsnapped Peterson in his last three games, after the veteran outplayed him 60-42 in the three games prior. Still, even with Johnson getting the snaps edge, Peterson saw 5 red-zone touches to 0 for Johnson and led Swift in that stat 19-10. The targets have been in favor of Peterson also (6-3 the last two weeks), so don’t assume Johnson is the new Swift. Our projection model has them 1 fantasy points apart, which is how I feel about this situation, they are likely going to get 12-15 touches each, deepening on script, but since AD looks to be the guy at the goal line, I give him a slight edge.

Core plays: N/A

GPP only: N/A

MIA -3.5. O/U: 45.5
MIA: 24.5 | DEN: 20.5

Pace and playcalling 

Denver has picked up the pace, operating at the fifth-fastest neutral pace. Miami is bottom-six in pace and has run it at a top-eight rate since Tua Tagovailoa took over for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

This game seems like a mismatch, with Miami ninth in scoring and fifth in PPG allowed. Denver is 28th in points per game (20.7) and 27th in points allowed (28.2). Miami is red hot, winning five straight, which has the betting public and big money backing the Fins (7-2 ATS, tied with Pittsburgh for first, and their 10.6 +/1 ATS is also first).

Dolphins

Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker exposed this rush D last week for 217 total yards and 4 TDs, Salvon Ahmed should have success as well, but with Matt Brieda coming back, I am not sure we can count on him seeing 22 touches again. This is a game I will likely just fade altogether, but I will update more as the injury situations become clear.

Ahmed’s rush prop has stayed 55 yards with a solid TD line of -135 at FD. He has one target in two games so we are hoping for yards and another TD if you go there. He still runs behind a bottom-4 OL, and I think DEN shows up today after getting embarrassed last week, so not finding myself rostering Ahmed much. He makes more sense on FD with his lack of passing work. 

DeVante Parker has felt the sting of losing FITZMAGIC, posting 1-3-1, 6-64-0, and 2-31-0 in his three games played with Tua. The matchup is good, the DEN outside CBs don’t scare me in the slightest so if I am rostering a Dolphins player, Parker is the guy, but after about 20 teams built, he has yet to make it in one. This applies even more to Jakeem Grant and Mike Gesicki. I say every week, if you play 3-MAX, you can’t roster everyone so this is a game we cross out and hope it busts. 

Broncos

Drew Lock is questionable, with the Broncos claiming they will let us know Saturday.

This game is not very appealing, especially the Denver side, so this news won’t have a major impact. That said, it is the starting QB, so we need the info to handicap the game. I will update Denver Saturday, but I worry whether the Broncos can muster enough resistance in this game to keep Tua and the Dolphins aggressive (Miami is fifth in PPG allowed, eighth in pass DVOA).

Lock is dealing with a muscle strain around his ribs but will play. MIA is top-8 on sacks on the season (15th in pressure rate. 5th in blitz rate), and DEN 8th worst in adjusted sack rate and 9th in pressure rate. Lock is already one of the worst under pressure, making MIA DST one of the stronger defenses on the day (MIA 4th in takeaways, DEN is LAST in giveaways).

You have to think DEN will go back running the ball more, something they have done at the LOWEST rate over their last two blowout losses. MIA is most vulnerable against the run, and it mitigates the pass rush, it is just a matter of the defense holding up and keeping it close. DEN D can also be considered against TUA, as they still rank in the top-13 in both points and yards per drive allowed. 

Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay really cancel each other out when both are active, especially with DEN passing so much. Last week the two combined for 3 targets, while Royce Freeman got 2, so we can’t even look to one of them in hopes for check downs. Lindsay has not seen double-digit touches in any game Gordon has been active. 

Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler have officially swapped positions. with Hamler handling 90.4% of the slot snaps since week 8 (Jeudy, 12%). The move plus the increased pass rate has equaled 20 targets for Hamler in two games. It is not often you can roster a player @ $3.6k that is fresh off back-to-back games with 10 targets, but that is what you have in Hamler. With the pressure that is sure to come and KJ getting 60% of his target in the short/middle section of the field, this sets up well for him to catch 4-5 balls once again.  Miami has been tough on lead/outside wideouts, making this a tough draw for Tim Patrick and Jeudy, so expect Hamler to be busy. MIA is 4th in slot targets allowed per game. 

Noah Fant has dealt with an ankle injury since week 2, but he did make it thorough last week and practiced so he should be good. After a couple of weeks of busting, he will be an afterthought on this slate. He is in the “TD dependent” bucket for me, like most TEs, and the matchup isn’t great in terms of TE DvP. That said, they have allowed 3 TE TDs in two games and he also runs 50% of his routes in the short/mid sections which will be the sweet spot against with Lock trying to stay alive against the MIA pass rush. 

Core plays: MIA DST

GPP only: Hamler (WR3 punt on DK), Fant 

GB +2.5. O/U: 51
GB: 25.5 | IND: 26.5

Pace and playcalling 

The public is betting the OVER here, and I get it. The OVERs have been the hot bet this year, but this is not a good game from a playcalling-and-pace standpoint. These teams also limit their opponents to the second- (GB) and third-fewest plays per game.

Both teams pass at nearly the same rate (56.8% and 56.5%), and both are in the bottom half in terms of neutral pace (GB, fifth-slowest). If the Colts get at least a 7-point lead, they go to a 60% rush rate and slow things down even further.

Ideally, Green Bay will get a two-score lead and get Indianapolis out of run mode (68% pass, 11th fastest pace), but both of these pass defenses are solid, with Indianapolis being one of the better units, ranking fourth in pass DVOA while limiting QBs to the fewest FPPG this season.

Packers

Aaron Rodgers has had one bad game this season — in Tampa and on national TV, so we all saw it and remember it. Other than that game, he has been spectacular, tossing at least 2 TDs in all eight games, adding a rush TD last week for good measure. This will be the litmus test, against a stingy Colts D that is fourth in points allowed and fifth in points per drive allowed.

If we mention Rodgers in good and bad matchups, we have to say it about the Colts. They haven’t faced an elite passing offenses this year. The Bengals aren’t great, but they are considered a “pass first” offense, as are the Jaguars. Indianapolis allowed Joe Burrow 313 passing yards (no TDs) and Gardner Minshew 173 yards and 3 TDs on 20 attempts. They also (more recently) allowed Matthew Stafford 336-3. That said, they were missing their defensive captain and best player, Darius Leonard, in the Lions and Bengals games. The thing Indianapolis can do that I have mentioned before is get pressure on the QB without blitzing. With pressure being the one thing that has slowed Rodgers down this season, that will be the key factor here. If given time in the pocket, I don’t care who is covering, Rodgers will make you pay, completing 77% when clean and 40% when under pressure.

Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are the only Packers players you need to consider here, as they soak up so much usage and head and shoulders above their teammates on the talent spectrum. Colts are a tougher matchup for backs, seventh in adjusted line yards allowed and the ninth-fewest receptions. Jones has not been efficient on the ground lately, getting just 3 YPC over his last three games, so we are going to need him to keep catching passes and scoring TDs to pay off his high price tag.

Adams is your WR1 once again, with a great matchup against outside Colts CBs Xavier Rhodes (40% of Adams routes on his side) and Rock Ya-Sin (30%), and facing Kenny Moore when he lines up in the slot. He has been banged up but should be a full go again. Last week he would have scored another 20-plus-yard TD, but it was called back for holding so I am not worried about his injury if he plays (he is playing, even though it says questionable).

I am not chasing the Marquez Valdes-Scantling long TD or Robert Tonyan. Allen Lazard is back, which should make these secondary options even more volatile.

Colts

Philip Rivers is priced down to $5.6k and $7k, which is about right for old guy. He has flashed three 300-yard games this season and two top-six finishes, so if Rodgers puts up points, Rivers could show up again for one of those top-10 games. On a slate without Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes, these QBs become more viable — especially with some of the top options in matchups that aren’t gimmes.

Nyheim Hines is my favorite play from on the Colts in a good matchup against Green Bay. He sees 4.56 targets per game this season (5.0 targets in his last four), which sets up well against Green Bay (fourth-most reviving yards to RBs). Hines having his most touches in last week’s blowout win, after four touches in a 14-point loss against the Ravens, so trying to figure out this backfield can cause you an ulcer, but I am going to take the risk anyway, with the Packers allowing the second-most FPPG to backs on DK (33 FPPG).

Michael Pittman busted out with a 7-101-0 line on 8 targets, but should see a Jaire Alexander shadow for the majority of the afternoon. Alexander won’t travel into the slot if the Colts want to get Pittman a better matchup, but that is not enough for me to put him on a three-max. I don’t have any interest in these other passing options either. I will have Hines as a one-off and as a runback to Green Bay stacks, and that is it.

Core plays: Davante Adams, Nyheim Hines

GPP only: Aaron Rodgers

NYJ +7.5. O/U: 47
NYJ: 18.5 | LAC: 28

Pace and playcalling 

The Jets are 32nd in points scored, 30th in points allowed. Only a team like the Chargers could make me question a mismatch like this, as they find more ways to lose and blow leads every week with Anthony Lynn at the helm. For DFS, we want the Jets to hang in there and get LAC throwing more (23rd pass rate).

Jets

Joe Flacco will get the start, and he should benefit from having Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims in the lineup. Those three WRs give me enough hope they can score enough to get Justin Herbert and the Chargers away from Kalen Ballage. That said, I don’t want any part of them in DFS with all three active.

I also don’t have any interest in Frank Gore and La’Mical Perine, who are entrenched in a committee on a bad team.

Chargers

Per our own Eliot Crist, who is a (pathetic) Jets fan: “The New York Jets lost three starting corners this week — Pierre Desir was cut, Brian Poole was placed on injured reserve and Blessuan Austin is out with a neck Injury. The Jets will be starting fifth-round rookie Bryce Hall, third-round rookie safety Ashtyn Davis and 4.6-speed Arthur Maulet.”

That leaves only Anthony Lynn standing in the way of Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and tons of fantasy fun. When asked about using generational talent Kalen Ballage for 46 snaps and 23 touches last week compared to just 21 combined for Allen, Mike Williams, Joshua Kelley and Troymaine Pope, this genus said he wants to “scheme to get Ballage more touches” this week in his second straight revenge game.

That means we have to stack Herbert, Allen and Williams (in an A+ matchup) with the hope that Ballage doesn’t do it to us again. There is no other analysis needed — if Herbert is unleashed, he is going off.

I joke, but Ballage is a viable play given this new role and the admiration from his coach. He has back-to-back games averaging 20 touches, so at $5.8k (FD) and $5.6k (DK) he needs to be in your player pool. The Jets have been behind all season, so they have faced the ninth-highest rush rate, despite being fifth in adjusted line yards allowed.

Core plays: Keenan Allen, Justin Herbert, Kalen Ballage

GPP only: Mike Williams (Can be used as a one-off and in your Herbert/Allen stack)

TEN +6.5. O/U: 48.5
TEN: NA | BAL: NA

Pace and playcalling 

This game seems better for real football than DFS, simply due to the way the teams matchup and distribute the rock. For one, they are the sixth- and second-highest running teams, which, combined with Baltimore’s slow pace and top-rated defense (first in PPG allowed), can drag a game into the mud.

Baltimore has shown defensive weakness at times, allowing 34 points to the Chiefs, 30 to the Eagles and 28 in a loss to the Steelers. With that loss to their rivals, they have dropped two of three and are now tied with Cleveland, Indianapolis, Las Vegas and this Tennessee team at 6-3. To quote Cardi B, “Shit is gettin’ real.”

The Ravens have to play Pittsburgh again next week, so if they can’t win here they could be in some trouble. Luckily, they still have games with Dallas, Jacksonville, the Giants and Cincinnati to secure their playoff bid.

Titans

Ryan Tannehill is a prime example of a player who can’t sustain QB1 production because he is attempting 31 passes a game (26th in deep attempts). He still has exceeded expectations with 20 passing TDs (seventh), despite being 21st in attempts by being very efficient (8.2 ANY/A, third). He has run into three tough matchups in his past four games (Pittsburgh, Chicago and Indianapolis) and didn’t exceed 220 passing yards in any of the three. This is another matchup where it is hard to project a ceiling game, which is what we need in DFS (Baltimore is second in point per drive allowed).

Baltimore is not a good matchup for RBs, but it’s not a terrible one, especially for a back named Derrick Henry, who crushed the dreams of Ravens fans last year in the playoffs. They have also started to show some signs of weakness, allowing Damien Harris 22-122-0, in addition to 22 yards and a TD to Cam Newton on the ground. They will be without DE Calais Campbell, LB L.J. Fort, and their big 340-pound DT Brandon Williams. Anytime you take the run stopper out of the middle of a defense, the unit suffers, and that has been the case in Baltimore since last season, with the Ravens allowing 1.5 YPC more with him sidelined. The fun part about playing Henry this week is that most people will just see the Baltimore matchup and fade. Our model currently has 6% on DK, which could be fun in tournaments.

Jimmy Smith is questionable, but regardless, A.J. Brown has the size and speed to produce in any matchup. Last week, he dropped a dime from Tannehill that could have gone for six, stopping a scoring streak of five straight.

I will take a deeper dive into the Tennessee passing game once I get word on Jimmy Smith — when on the field has been a top-10 CB.

Ravens

The Ravens made it easy on us again by adding Mark Ingram back into the committee last week (7 touches). J.K. Dobbins led with 29 snaps, but he only got six touches compared to eight for Gus Edwards.

Marquise Brown keeps being the squeaky wheel who gets no grease. This is what happens when you play WR on the league’s most run-heavy offense; the targets are going to be sporadic. He is a home-run hitter without any home runs lately — 2 TDs, one game over 100 yards (in Week 1), one game over 20 DK points this season. I have always preferred playing Lamar Jackson without a WR, as you are playing him for rushing TDs, which are negatively correlated to a player like Brown.

Willie Snead has been much more consistent, with 5-4-5 catches in his last three, averaging 63 yards per game. That is all I can muster on ole’ Willie.

Mark Andrews has appeal on DK and other non-Taysom-Hill-at-TE sites. This is a matchup where he should excel, running the majority of his routes in the soft spot of this defense. The Titans have allowed 5 TDs to TEs this season, likely 6 after Sunday. Andrews has seen 34.4% of Jackson’s red-zone targets this season, so he is someone I like to connect in a stack. Looking back at Jackson’s ceiling games, two of three have brought Andrews along for the ride, and now he doesn’t have Nick Boyle (who landed on IR) to compete with in the red zone.

Core plays: N/A

GPP only: Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson

DAL +7.5. O/U: 48
DAL: 20 | MIN: 28.5

Cowboys

Andy Dalton is back, and the Vikings defense has been very friendly to opposing QBs and WRs this season (fifth-most fantasy points allowed). I know Dalton looked terrible before his injury, but he has so much talent surrounding him, that we can’t just write him off. He carried A.J. Green to a WR1 status for years, so he can certainly put up some numbers with Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb and company.

I am doing more research on this matchup Saturday and will post/tweet when it is up, but for now I can tell you I prefer our boy CeeDee Lamb in the slot against Jeff Gladney for a run-back in my Minnesota stacks.

Vikings

Minnesota runs at the fourth-highest rate and plays at the seventh-slowest pace. They run the second-fewest plays per game, and have started to play better on defense, which makes this game getting out of hand more likely. If that happens, expect a fast clock and a good amount of Alexander Mattison late, after Dalvin Cook handled 34 touches Monday night. If a blowout happens, Cook will likely already have a 100 and a TD (at least) so I am not saying don’t play Cook. He will be ultra chalk, 40% in GPPs and at least 85% in cash, maybe higher on FD. If you want to fade in three-max, I would only do it on one or two teams, not a full fade, with Dallas coming in with the third-highest rush rate against, 30th in adjusted line yards allowed and 25th in second-level.

Justin Jefferson has out-targeted Adam Thielen 18-16 over their last three games. Both guys can get scripted out pretty easily in a matchup like this, but they also offer immense upside and leverage if Dallas scores and pulls Minnesota into a shootout. This Vikings secondary is hot garbage, so I think there is a good chance we end up in that scenario, and the passing options blow up at 15% (Jefferson) and 11%. I wish they were projected at a lower ownership percentage, but it is not enough to stop me from having a good amount of exposure to them, both in stacks and as one-offs.

Kyle Rudolph will be a cheap TE flier again if Irv Smith is declared OUT. I will update this Minnesota section more when I add more to Dallas.

Core plays: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen

GPP only: CeeDee Lamb, Kirk Cousins

Top Stacks: 

PITT (not running it back on main LU) 

ATL/NO 

NE/HOU

Sneaky stack: CINN/WASH

Waiting on Teddy B news, but do like that game as well. 

CASH/CORE PLAYS

Core (FD): CAM – COOK – DAVIS – JACOBY – DIONTE – F1 – HILL 

Core (DK): HILL – COOK – DAVIS – DIONTE – JACOBY – A. PETERSON – DALLAS G 

The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE)

CLAYPOOL – JUJU – EBRON 

Keenan (LAC stacks – I like Perriman as the run back, but Mims is good if you need the cap space)

GIO 

ANDREWS ON DK 

N. HINES 

MILES SANDERS ON DK 

RYAN – RIDLEY -JULIO stacks w/ KAMARA and value plays 

Justin Jefferson or Thielen on any team you FADE COOK 

Brandin Cooks is a nice value on DK 

Underweight – Duke (HOU RB fade, Part X), Marvin Jones, Lamar, ZEKE. I have some Rodgers/Adams/Jones stacks, I worry I don’t have enough as I am not sold on the INDY D being the 85 Bears, Conner, Pittman (Colts other than Hines)

Low(er) owned one-offs:  D. Henry, Gibson, Kerryon Johnson, Harris, Hamler, Hockenson, C. Samuel 

12:07 PM (EST) UPDATE 

LATTIMORE IS OUT IN New Orleans – Julio is in the “Adams – Allen – F1” tier at the top of the WR foodchain. I am getting him in a lot of LUs 

TEDDY B is out – PJ Walker becomes a fun punt at $4.8k, but I also like the DET D now on FD as a punt DST. We have no idea how he will distribute the targets, but Curtis Samuel is still my favorite for price and rushing work. I am staying on Mike Davis for the most part, but if you want to pivot I don’t think he is as good of a play anymore. GIO or Sanders are good cash game alternatives. Or you can go down to the Ballage-Harris range on FD, freeing up salary to get up to Julio if you want. 

I am staying with Adrian Peterson, who can be stacked with the DET D 

Sony Michel is OUT – Harris is a GREAT PLAY on both sites, but especially on FD