PGA Outrights and Best Bets for the 2025 Masters

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Pencils down, books away, no more studying because Masters week is here. It’s time to take what we’ve learned from the first three months of the season and apply it to the season’s first major championship. 

Augusta National is the host here and it needs no introduction as it’s arguably the most iconic course in the world. Still, let’s take a look and see what style thrives in Augusta, Georgia. 

Course Fit

Augusta National Golf Club is a par 72 that stretches out past 7,500 yards. For most courses it’s hard to keep up with modern-day distance gains. But for Augusta National, they just keep buying adjacent property year after year to slowly keep expanding and tweaking the course. 

Off the tee we see tree-lined corridors, but many of the fairways are rather wide. The rough, also known as the second cut around here, is shorter and more well-maintained than most fairways across the globe. The result is a rather generous test off the tee if you’re driving it well. However, with dense tree blocks, pine straw, creeks, and well place bunkers, you can swallow some big numbers if you aren’t in control. 

That remains a story throughout the course. You need to be in complete control of your ball and implement smart course management maneuvers. There are lots of risk-reward opportunities around Augusta National and many of them are often tricks or illusions that lead down a path to bogey or worse. They say course experience is crucial around here and that is a big reason. Having some prior experience can be crucial to knowing when to step on the gas and when to smartly play away from a flag and take your par. 

This is a course that tests a lot of clubs in your bag. With less than 25% of shots coming from inside 150 yards, it’s far from a wedge fest. It’s no surprise then to see that past performance on long courses is one of the best predictive splits here at Augusta National. 

The other split stat I want to focus on is performance on tough courses. At times, this course feels like birdies and eagles are dropping from everywhere but it’s only a few holes where all of the magic happens. Overall, this is still one of the toughest scoring environments they see all season with birdie rates of 18% and bogey rates exceeding 22%, which is basically the inverse of the PGA Tour average. The field has averaged more than a stroke over par (73.2) over the last five Masters. 

Looking at the turf we see overseed on the fairways and rough with smooth bentgrass on the putting surfaces. The greens at Augusta National are known for being lightning fast with extreme undulations. Many say the straight putts are easier here, but you can make yourself look silly on some of the lag putts if you misjudge any of the slope along the way. 

For our split stat search let’s look at top-heavy finish history on long and tough courses. Here are the top 10 names that outperform their baseline rates over the last two years. 

• Xander Schauffele
• Russell Henley
• Michael Kim
• Shane Lowry
• Sepp Straka
• Ludvig Aberg
• Wyndham Clark
• Corey Conners
• Hideki Matsuyama
• Viktor Hovland

This list is just loaded with elite iron players, golfers you expect to pepper the flag anytime they approach from inside of 225 yards. 

Head over to the FTN Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

The books are pricing up Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy again as heavy favorites. Scheffler is the defending champ at Augusta National and also won the 2022 Masters. As we talked about before in the What to Watch For at the 2025 Masters Player Notes, Rory McIlroy is searching for his final piece of the career grand slam puzzle. 

Do we ride the favorites or search further down the board? Here are some of my first clicks. 

Free Golf Bets for the 2025 Masters

Joaquin Niemann Top South American (-175)

Over the last year I have Niemann ranked 13th in the field in regards to baseline performance (+1.07 strokes gained per round). His closest competitor in this market is Jhonattan Vegas (-0.26 strokes per round). Nico Echavarria has also flashed high upside as a boom-or-bust golfer, but his baseline is even lower than Jhonattan Vegas. The last competitor in the Top South American prop market is Angel Cabrera, who just won on the Senior circuit, but it’s a big gap between Tours. 

Collin Morikawa to Win (18-1)

Looking at three-month form there are three golfers in the field who are gaining more than two strokes per round over this week’s strong field. The first two are obvious — Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler — but the third is Morikawa.

Historically in similar field sizes when a golfer arrives with that level of form, they’ve gone on to win 21% of the time. The markets are accounting for that elite level of play when it comes to McIlroy and Scheffler, but they are underestimating Morikawa. 

What has led to the improved play by Morikawa? He’s always been steady with his striking, but his short game has been tidied up. He’s gained around-the-green in 14 of his last 17 starts and gained putting in 11 of his last 16 events.

Phil Mickelson To Make the Cut (-150)

I don’t know what Lefty has been putting in his coffee lately, but it’s working. The 54-year-old has finished sixth or better in two of his last three LIV events while striking it very solid in those events. 

Even without form, he tends to find a way to poke his head into the mix at Augusta National. He’s made the cut here in seven straight starts, and with strong lead-in form this time around I’m expecting that to be eight straight. 

When finish-position props get posted I’m expecting his top-20 odds to be worth a look as well. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. 

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