Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 12 fantasy football usage report. This piece is designed to give you a glimpse of both rushing shares and usage rates for running backs, wide receivers, and occasionally tight ends. It will help you understand how often a player is involved in his team’s game plan and if those players are susceptible to being faded or emphasized during various game scripts.
(To see more, check out our Weekly Rushing Share and Usage by Situation pages.)
Definitions:
tgt_big_lead — Target share when team is leading by 14+ points
tgt_leading — Target share when team is leading by 9-13 points
tgt_one_score — Target share when team is in a one score game
tgt_down — Target share when team is down by 9-13 points
tgt_down_big — Target share when team is down by 14+ points
Weekly Rushing Share
Tier 1 — Teams with Situations in Flux
Houston Texans
The Texans waived running back Phillip Lindsay Tuesday. The veteran back will proceed through waivers and then, if unclaimed, is free to sign with any team. Rex Burkhead saw his highest usage of the season and David Johnson is still in the rotation. Overall, this backfield remains underwhelming for fantasy purposes.
New England Patriots
The long-awaited backfield-committee approach seems to have officially taken hold in New England. Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson capitalized on the absence of Damien Harris and earned himself at the very least a share of the work moving forward. Both running backs looked great in Week 11 and will likely frustrate their respective fantasy managers in the weeks ahead.
New York Jets
Rookie running back Michael Carter is expected to miss at least two weeks with an ankle sprain. Those have been known to linger for players, so managers will want to keep a close eye on his status in the days to come. In his stead, Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman figure to split carries. Quarterback Zach Wilson also appears to be making his return in Week 12.
Tier 2 — Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Atlanta Falcons
Cordarrelle Patterson was unable to play on a short week in Week 11, and Qadree Ollison wound up leading the team in rushing. He was elevated from the practice squad and beat out both Mike Davis and Wayne Gallman. Aside from Patterson, this backfield has not been friendly to fantasy managers, and it will remain so until Patterson returns.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens waived Le’Veon Bell as Latavius Murray made his return in Week 11. Devonta Freeman remains the RB1 and was even more essential without Lamar Jackson on the field. Jackson figures to return this week and reclaim his role as the top offensive weapon for his squad.
Buffalo Bills
Matt Breida has become a surprise staple of the Bill offense in recent weeks. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss remain involved, but a three-way backfield only serves to diminish the value of each player in the weeks to come.
Green Bay Packers
In the first game without Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon predictably paced the backfield in opportunities. The Packers dropped a close one to the Vikings in what turned into a high-scoring affair. Expect another health dose of Dillon in Week 12 before the Packers have their bye in Week 13.
Kansas City Chiefs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire made his return in Week 11 and essentially replaced Darrel Williams. Williams had a minor role, but it’s clear Edwards-Helaire is the RB1 for the Chiefs when healthy. This offense appears to have gotten back on track in recent weeks and heads into their bye week in Week 12.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara missed his second consecutive game in Week 11, which paved the way for veteran Mark Ingram to pace the backfield in rushing attempts. The Saints continue to be starved for offensive playmakers, but the volume is there for Ingram or Kamara. The Saints play on Thanksgiving and Kamara missed practice Tuesday, which likely means he will not play for a third straight week. Ingram missed practice as well Tuesday, which makes Tony Jones interesting for Week 12.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley made his return to the Giants Monday but only totaled six carries in a blowout loss. He made it through the contest healthy, which is a positive sign, and his six receptions bode well for future usage. Still, it was a lackluster return to the field for the highly drafted running back.
Philadelphia Eagles
Another NFC East running back made his return in Week 11. Miles Sanders had season-high marks in carries (16) and yards (94). His lone target was a low-water mark for the year, but it was encouraging to see him thrust back into a high-volume role. Jordan Howard looked like the RB2 while Kenneth Gainwell appeared to be the odd man out, until news came out that Howard sprained his knee Sunday and will likely miss Week 12. That likely brings Gainwell back to the active roster.
San Francisco 49ers
Trey Sermon truthers rejoice! He saw meaningful work for the first time in several weeks. It took the absence of Elijah Mitchell to make this happen and he still worked as the RB2 behind Jeffery Wilson, but it was a step in the right direction. Elijah Mitchell is the clear RB1 and any hope for work from the others hinges on Mitchell’s health.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans released Adrian Peterson, and Dontrell Hilliard looks like the new hotness in this backfield. Hilliard was signed to the active roster Tuesday and reeled in eight of 10 targets for 47 yards in a crushing Week 11 loss to the lowly Texans. He will be a trendy waiver wire target this week.
Tier 3 — Teams with Stable Situations
Arizona Cardinals
James Conner continues to score touchdowns. His 13 on the season tie his career-best from 2018 when he found paydirt 13 times in 13 games with the Steelers. Chase Edmonds remains on injured reserve, and the Cardinals have a Week 12 bye.
Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey has reclaimed his role as the RB1 of this backfield. Cam Newton still poses a threat near the end zone, but McCaffrey is invaluable in PPR formats as shown by his 17 receptions over the last two weeks.
Chicago Bears
David Montgomery has 27 carries over his last two games and has solidified his role in the Bears’ backfield. Khalil Herbert was a fun early-season story but remains the clear backup at this point.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon tied his career-high in carries (30) this week and remains a strong RB1 in all formats given his role in all facets of the game. He does not have a target in two of his last four games but still has 22 receptions on 26 targets for the year. Mixon has 11 total touchdowns.
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb has missed three games this season and is still the RB13. He’s averaging almost six yards/carry and thrives behind his elite offensive line. Kareem Hunt is reportedly expected to play in Week 12, and the Browns have their bye in Week 13.
Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard might be more explosive, efficient and simply more fun to watch, but Ezekiel Elliott remains the starter and the goal-line option when Dallas gets close. The Cowboys have a quick turnaround and will play on Thanksgiving.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos were on their bye this past week and Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams continue to split touches at an annoyingly high rate.
Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift has 266 rushing yards over his last two games. He’s the RB5 in PPR formats and remains a must-start each week, even given the struggles of the Lions. Jamaal Williams returned from his absence to reclaim his change-of-pace role.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor. Wow. Dynasty RB1.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars might not be good, but it doesn’t matter when James Robinson is getting all the work. He’s the RB15 on the season and is one of the few fantasy-relevant options in Jacksonville.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs remains one of the most boring starting running backs in football. He’s a low-end RB2 that sees work in both the rushing and passing game but is rarely the reason you win or lose your week.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler did his best Jonathan Taylor impersonation this week and should be viewed with the top tier of running backs moving forward.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams enjoyed a much-needed bye this week and should come out of it with a slight sense of urgency after a few tough weeks. They get an awesome NFC matchup with the Packers and all playmakers will need to step up. Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel are an effective 1-2 punch.
Miami Dolphins
Myles Gaskin has established himself as the primary option in this backfield in recent weeks. He has at least 12 rushing attempts in five straight games and at three targets in four of those five.
Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook is a strong RB1. Alexander Mattison is one of the elite handcuffs alongside Tony Pollard.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns on the season. Impressive.
Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson is officially out for the season, which means Alex Collins can maintain his bland but moderately useful role for the Seahawks who are struggling in all facets of the game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leonard Fournette saw one of his lowest usage rates in Week 11 but wasn’t needed in a blowout victory. His involvement in the passing raises his weekly floor. He has at least four targets in all but one game.
Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson rushed for 95 yards this week (season-high) but did not score. He appears to be back to full strength following a nagging shin injury.
Usage by Situation
Tier 1 — Teams with Situations in Flux
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have both missed three straight games. The Cardinals are on bye in Week 12 so there is optimism that both stars can return the following week.
Chicago Bears
Sophomore wideout Darnell Mooney reeled in five of 16 targets for 121 yards and a score. He has touchdowns in three of his last five games and currently sits at WR30 on the year. More importantly, Justin Fields will miss Week 12 with a rib injury. Andy Dalton, who replaced Fields in Week 11, will get the start on Thanksgiving.
Dallas Cowboys
Amari Cooper will miss his second straight game in Week 12 due to COVID-19. CeeDee Lamb is currently in the concussion protocol and his status will need to be monitored over the next two days. Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson and Dalton Schultz could see a bump in usage if both star wideouts sit on Thanksgiving.
New York Jets
Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson looks set to make his return following a four-game absence due to a knee injury. The quarterback position for the Jets has been a carousel in recent weeks and consistency should be a welcome sight in the days and weeks to come. The Elijah Moore breakout campaign continues and it’s truly a sight to behold.
Tier 2 — Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson missed this week with an illness, but the team managed to gut out a win. The Rashod Bateman breakout didn’t happen, but the talented rookie continues to impress. Mark Andrews is quietly the TE2 on the season and is well on his way to break his season-high mark in targets (98).
Carolina Panthers
DJ Moore has cooled in recent weeks but still has at least seven targets in every game this season. Cam Newton adds another wrinkle to the offense that opposing teams need to account for and Robby Anderson has shown signs of life over the last two weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Dan Arnold posted a zero in Week 11, and Jamal Agnew was lost for the season. Trevor Lawrence has not topped 16 completions or 162 yards in three straight weeks and he has not thrown a touchdown pass in that time. His TD:INT ratio remains at 8:9.
San Francisco 49ers
I absolutely love seeing Brandon Aiyuk look dominant again. It appears he has turned his season around and has strung together several strong weeks in a row. In Week 9, his line was 6-89-1 on eight targets and in Week 11 his line was 7-85-1 on seven targets.
Tennessee Titans
A.J. Brown had negative X-rays on his ribs, which is encouraging news. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has a solid Week 11 performance and has stepped up several times through the season. Marcus Johnson also posted a 100-yard game back in Week 10 but is now done for the season after being placed on injured reserve.
Tier 3 — Teams with Stable Situations
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons continue to struggle on offense when opposing teams only need to worry about Kyle Pitts. Russell Gage is the de facto WR1, but he has zero receptions in two of his last four games.
Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs is heating up at the right time. He has five touchdowns over his last five games. The Bills were thrashed by Jonathan Taylor in Week 11, but Diggs remains an integral part of this offense.
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase notched his eighth touchdown of the season in Week 11 and teammate Tee Higgins saw a season-low three targets. Higgins remains a dynasty trade target.
Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield is dealing with multiple injuries but continues to play through them. The pass catchers on this offense don’t offer much upside or intrigue as Nick Chubb tends to literally carry the load.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos signed both Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton to contract extensions this week as the team enjoyed their bye week. Patrick has been a low-key solid fantasy producer over the last two seasons. This team just needs a quarterback.
Detroit Lions
Jared Goff is reportedly a game-time decision. It sounds like Tim Boyle will square off against Andy Dalton on Thanksgiving.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers hit season-high marks in completions (23), passing yards (385) and touchdowns (4) in a tough loss to the Vikings. A marquee matchup against the Rams looms in Week 12 before the Packers head into their bye in Week 13.
Houston Texans
Tyrod Taylor offers fantasy managers some utility with his legs, while Brandin Cooks posted his worst game of the season in Week 11. Cooks remains the only pass-catcher worth rostering in Houston.
Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman saw a season-low in catches (2) and yards (23) this week. He didn’t need to do much with teammate Jonathan Taylor running over the opposition over and over again. The Colts don’t have their bye until Week 14.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ offense looks to be back on track. The passing game still funnels through Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce but the return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire seems to have had a tangible impact.
Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller (TE3) topped 100 receiving yards for the first time since Week 1 and Hunter Renfrow cooled off a bit but remains a viable trade target for contending fantasy teams this season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams has seen at least five targets in five straight games but hasn’t done much with them until this week. His game-winning touchdown closed out the Steelers Sunday and teammate Keenan Allen remains one of the most consistent wideouts in the game.
Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp has at least 90 receiving yards in all but one game this season. The Rams come out of their bye and face the Packers in Green Bay in a critical NFC matchup.
Miami Dolphins
It might be hard to believe, but quietly, Jaylen Waddle is the WR20 and Mike Gesicki the TE4 on the season. The passing game funnels through these two playmakers and it’s working. The Dolphins have won three in a row.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson continues to make his case as the overall dynasty WR1 and Adam Thielen has at least eight touchdowns for the third time in four seasons. Oh, and both wideouts are top-10 at the position as of this writing.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones and the Patriots are rolling right now. They thrashed the Falcons last Thursday and have a pair of games to go before their bye week in Week 14. The pass-catchers might not be flashy, but they are getting the job done each week. Hunter Henry has seven touchdowns on the season, one shy of his career high.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are quickly becoming known for their questionable contract moves. Marquez Callaway has scored in three straight games and has six scores on the season, but he only has one game with more than four receptions.
New York Giants
The Giants were embarrassed Monday and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett was fired Tuesday. We’ll see how that personnel move will impact this offense moving forward.
Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are the only viable options in the passing game. Jalen Hurts is adding a lot of fantasy value with his legs and the running backs are seeing solid usage.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth has five touchdowns this season and at least six targets in five straight games. Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool continue to pace the receiving core.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson has struggled in his first two games back from injury. He has thrown two interceptions and zero touchdowns in that span. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both top-24 at the wide receiver position, but time is running out for the Seahawks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It was business as usual for Tom Brady & Co. Monday night. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are WR7 and WR8, respectively, and Rob Gronkowski dominated following a lengthy absence throughout the middle of the season.
Washington Football Team
Terry McLaurin topped 100 yards for the fourth time this year and hauled in his fifth touchdown of the season. He remains the primary target on this offense and hasn’t seen less than seven targets in a game since Week 1.
