MSG Week 6 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 6.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

ATL +3.5. O/U: 55.5
ATL: 26 | MIN: 29.5

Pace and playcalling 

The 0-5 Falcons will start the post-Dan Quinn era Sunday in Minneapolis. This change was a long time coming, but I don’t think it makes much of an impact for this season with the offensive and defensive coordinators/schemes staying in place. 

Atlanta has been trending toward a more balanced or run-heavy offense. The Falcons are 22nd in pass rate when trailing by at least 7 (65%), down from third in 2019 (75%). Their overall rate is also down, first last season (67%) and 10th this year (62%). Despite being 0-5, we have a decent sample of them playing with at least a 7-point lead, a result of constantly blowing fourth-quarter leads. When up by a TD, they are only passing on 53% of plays. 

Minnesota has dramatic pace splits, 30th when up (31.91 seconds per play) and second when trailing (21.39 seconds). The Vikings can be a good team for fantasy if they fall behind (77 combined points scored in Week 1 vs. GB), but also can grind the clock and shorten the game. That was the plan last week, holding the ball for almost 40 minutes against Seattle, and if not for Russell Wilson being so good it would have worked. They have remained ultra-run heavy, passing at 50% overall and 42% if they get a lead. The only chance for this to truly be a shootout is Atlanta getting a decent lead, which gets Minnesota playing fast and passing at a 67% rate. 

That is a lot to ask when looking at the history of Matt Ryan vs. the Mike Zimmer scheme. Zimmer has held the QB to 13.8 fantasy points in six games, more than 6.0 below his 81-game average over that span. In their last two games, against the Vikings (while they were good), Ryan and the Birds only managed 10.3 PPG (24.5 vs. everyone else). The counter to that is Minnesota has always had great or at least above average defenses, until this season (30.4 PPG allowed on 6.1 yards per play, 19.9 in 2019). 

The Vikings have missed their fans, giving up 31 and 43 to Green Bay and Tennessee at home. They have been dominant at home in recent past, so seeing them get lit up like that is very 2020. 

Assuming Atlanta keeps the same pace, we can expect them to keep moving quickly; they are just very inefficient recently. 

Like Detroit/Jacksonville, this game features two of the worst defenses in points allowed per drive, with both things in the bottom-six. They have allowed a combined 62.6 PPG, which has this total at 54 points (Offenses average 51 PPG). 

Falcons 

The Atlanta offense has been trending the wrong way, seeing its offensive pass DVOA decline over their last three years (seventh in 2018, 13th in 2019, 23rd in 2020). Matt Ryan has averaged 10.92 fantasy points per game over his last three, after coming out of the gate on fire (28 fantasy points per game). The two glaring factors are Julio Jones’ health and their opponents (Atlanta played Dallas and Seattle in Weeks 1-2). Jones has been removed from the injury report, which would seem to indicate he’ll be active Sunday, but we’ve run into problems before. Without Jones, I am not looking to play Ryan in anything other than low-dollar/large-field GPPs or qualifiers. He is massively overpriced, priced at $6.6k on DK/$7.7k on FD, which makes him the fifth- and seventh-most expensive QB on the slate respectively.

Calvin Ridley and the rest of the Atlanta passing attack depends a lot on Julio Jones’ status. He did return to practice Friday, and as mentioned, he’s off the injury report, but at 0-5, I don’t see why they would rush the future HOFer back. His presence is huge for Ridley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst and Olamide Zaccheaus. (Check back later Saturday or Sunday morning for the full breakdown of how to handle the Falcons situation.)

Todd Gurley, fresh off his first 100-yard rushing game in ATL and his last 21 games is also affected by Julio. Anytime a player of his talent, that demands that kind of high usage could play, it changes the entire distribution of targets and play-calling 

Vikings

Kirk Cousins is in that same common group of QBs getting capped by their offensive scheme and low volume (Minnesota has 42.71% of its yards via the rush, fourth-most). Last week, Seattle got the Vikings to attempt 39 pass attempts, the most Cousins has thrown this season (27.8 per game). I know this matchup is great (30.5 fantasy points per game allowed to QB on 73% completion rate), but 25 attempts, 230 yards and a couple TD passes doesn’t get me too excited at $6.1k on DK. Let’s say Atlanta lifts him up 4-5 fantasy points, which is a 33% increase on his season average. Great, you just got yourself 20 FP. He is 30th in RZ attempts with 8 passing TDs (Vikings 8 rush TDs). 

Alexander Mattison should be ultra chalk with Dalvin Cook OUT. When smart data people say “RBs don’t matter,” what they are talking about is this game Sunday, as the big contract Cook will be out and the Vikings won’t look/perform any differently. No, Mattison is not as talented, and he does not have the profile that jumps off the page like Cook, but it is more than sufficient. Mattison rushed 20 times for 112 yards after replacing Cook last week, plus 3-24-0 through the air. 

Adam Thielen is popping on the air yards table. His 83.4% WOPR is 9% better than second-place Terry McClaurin. He is seeing 33% of Cousins’ targets (first) and 48% of the team’s air yards (second). Like Mattison, I won’t insult your intelligence here. We all know Thielen is a top-five WR on the slate, especially on FD where he is essentially the same price as DK, but with an extra $10k of cap space. 

Justin Jefferson was a bit of a bummer in a game that he was projected to excel in, seeing just 5 targets (3-23-0) after going nuts in Weeks 3-4. After a dud, his ownership is projected to be 8% or less, which makes him quite the leverage player if you multi-enter large-field GPPs. Again, low-volume offenses aren’t going to carry 2-3 players. Last week they ran 39 times and got Irv Smith involved for the first time (5 targets). Between Smith and the RBs (10 targets), there isn’t enough opportunity for a WR2 to smash. When he did go off for 33 fantasy points against Tennessee, Thielen took the back seat with 3 receptions for 29 yards.

Core plays: Alexander Mattison, Calvin Ridley (GPP if Julio Jones is in. Will update the rest of ATL after it is official), Adam Thielen

GPP only: Justin Jefferson, Irv Smith 

BAL-7.5. O/U: 46.5
BAL: 27.5 | PHI: 18.5

Pace and playcalling 

Baltimore is 17th in offensive DVOA, getting 2.5 points per drive (15th), down from first in 2019 (3.18). When they were being ultra-efficient, the lack of play volume didn’t matter, but now 58.8 plays a game (31st) is a bit of a problem. 

Even with the dip in efficiency stats, Baltimore is still averaging 29.8 PPG (eighth). The difference there is the sliding scale that is 2020. Last year, only Baltimore averaged over 30 points per game; this year, seven teams are doing so. 

The Ravens also play slow (25th overall) to go along with their sixth-highest rush rate. They go even slower when they get a lead, averaging a play every 31.58 seconds (31st) and passing at just 51%. They need a Kansas City to speed them up, but playing from behind and passing heavy isn’t something we have seen them do very much with their defense playing so well against all teams not named the Chiefs, giving up just 10.5 PPG (34 to the Champs). 

Ravens

Lamar Jackson has only two games over 25 fantasy points this season. That is awful at his price point, which is still inflated from last season. For some perspective, Ryan Fitzpatrick has four straight games with at least 25 points and is still $1.7k less expensive. I wish these sites would adjust more quickly, as a Jackson decision at his lowest FD price of $7.7k becomes a much different conversation than him at $9k, the most expensive QB on the slate. What is most concerning for his fantasy value is what appears to be a mysterious knee injury, which had him sit out a few snaps last week and only rush the ball two times for three yards (both career lows). The offensive line, which is eighth in pressure rate allowed, is also not playing at its 2019 level. QBs with elite rushing skills normally have the lower pressure rates, as they just take off and it is not considered a “pressure” for statistical purposes. If Jackson is not 100%, pressure is much more impactful, which has their adjusted sack rate 21st, from eighth in 2019. 

He is 32nd in pressured completion rate at 23% (34% in 2019, 17th). Philly has been a so-so matchup for QBs (23rd in YPA allowed), with Ben Roethlisberger’s 239-3-0 being the biggest fantasy day they have allowed. But they aren’t a scary matchup, 25th in pass DVOA and a 70.17% completion rate allowed (73% over their last three). I expect them to bring the heat in this one early, try to get Jackson out of rhythm, and find out if that ankle is an issue (eighth in adjusted sack rate). He is projected in the 8% range on both DK and FD, so I would get 4-6% exposure if you multi-enter LUs. 

We identified that the Ravens backfield was going to be a nightmare for DFS, and nothing has changed since. Mark Ingram has 19 carries over his last two, compared to 16 for Gus Edwards, in what has become a RBBC for the early-down work. Those two have one reception over those two games on four targets (3 for Edwards). Ingram does have 3 red-zone touches to Edwards’ zero over that stretch, but that is hardly enough. J.K. Dobbins has 18 touches in his last four games after seeing 7 in Week 1. Moving along in a tough matchup for RBs (the Eagles are seventh in adjusted line yards allowed). 

Ravens’s WR Marquise Brown flies into another juicy matchup with a Philly secondary without a lot of speed. I could just copy/paste the Chase Claypool writeup from last week here, as all the same factors apply to Hollywood. His speed advantage on the outside against these two backup Philly CBs is just unfair. 

The 5-foot-9 (and now 180-pound) Brown, who added 20 pounds of muscle this offseason has run the 40-yard dash in 4.32 seconds, and believes he would have broken John Ross‘ combine record of 4.22, but did not run due to a foot injury. We aren’t going to dissect every WR/CB matchup with 40 times, but we have to recognize these outlier speed (and size) matchups. Brown has six or more targets in all five contests, and 18 in his last two, which equals 27% of team targets (11th) and 44% of air yards (third), two very good thresholds for usage in a WR I like to see (at least 25%, at least 40%). The RZ usage is still bad, but he did pick up his first of the season last week (baby steps). Where he excels is deep targets, getting three per game of at least 20 yards (second), which has his weighted opportunity fourth overall. $6.5k is too high on DK for cash, even with all these signs pointing for a breakout, but $6.3k on FD is still very reasonable ($60k cap and 0.5 PPR). When it looked like Darius Slay would miss this game, Brown was going to be in my cash core. Now that Slay has been cleared and Miles Boykin was downgraded late in the week (never a good sign), Brown goes to GPP only.

Mark Andrews has made a living in the red zone, scoring 5 TDs on 12 RZ targets (40% RZ target share, first). Those 12 red-zone targets include seven goal-line targets (second). Philly has allowed 5 TDs to TEs despite Eric Ebron not scoring last week (5-43-0). They have allowed a lot of fantasy points to TE, thanks to George Kittle racking up 183 yards and Tyler Higbee scoring 3 TDs. If you use Lamar Jackson, stack him with Andrews and Hollywood. Without Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller on the slate, Andrews offers the most upside at the position for tournaments. 

The “other” guys — Willie Snead, Miles Boykin, Nick Boyle and now Devin Duvernay — play just enough to piss us off as Brown and Andrews owners, but not enough to roll them out outside of showdown slates. 

Boykin has a really nice profile, with a 98th-percentile height adjusted speed score per Player Profiler. To break that down, it means he is very tall (6-4), and very fast (4.42) considering that height. He should have no problem against these slugs Philly is rolling out at CB. He is worth a shot if you are playing those mega tournaments. Call it a “Chase” play from last week. (Of course, with his late-week downgrade, you’ll have to monitor his status closely.)

Eagles

Philly busted out against Pittsburgh, scoring 29 points, their high mark of the season, but I am not buying it. They are 28th in yards and 27th in points per drive (29th offensive pass, 27th offensive rush DVOA). They play at a good pace, and pass heavy, but I don’t think they can repeat last week and get into a shootout (18.5 team total is the lowest of the slate). 

We were all over the Steelers D last week in this matchup and Philly’s OL so beaten up. Like most, I was surprised the Eagles were able to move the ball that well against the Steelers. Even with all the points allowed, Pittsburgh posted 8 fantasy points, which is not great but also didn’t kill our lineup. I am going right back to the well this week, with Baltimore rising up the pressure rate ranks (sixth) after blitzing the hell out of Joe Burrow. The Ravens defensive backs recorded five sacks and forced two fumbles and registered an interception (7 total sacks). 

With a ton of exposure to this D (Philly has allowed the most sacks and turnovers per game), I won’t have much exposure to the offense. 

Carson Wentz has 9 INTS and 18 “danger plays” (both are first … or last, depending on your perspective). That has yielded at least two turnovers in four of five games. He now has to play without tackle Lane Johnson and guard G/T Matt Pryor, who went on the Reserve/COVID-19 list for reportedly coming into contact with someone who tested positive. Jack Driscoll is going to start again at right tackle. PFF has Driscoll graded 76th out of 79 tackles. Yikes. This will be the Eagles’ fifth starting line combination in six games.

More on the injury front: Dallas Goedert — who in my opinion was their best receiving option this season — and first-round rookie Jalen Reagor are still on IR. DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jefferey have also been out and will be again, leaving waiver wire darling Travis Fulgham, slot JAG Greg Ward, John Hightower, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and “No YAC” Zach Ertz. There is also something called Quez Watkins, the Eagles sixth-round pick that could be mixed in after getting his first playing time last week after coming off IR. “The Quez” has some juice, running a 4.35 at the combine after posting 1,178 yards on 18.4 ypr at Southern Miss. He profiles a lot like Marquise Brown/DeSean Jackson.

Fulgham is the best of the group, still just $4.4k (DK)/$5.3k (FD). He runs most of his routes on the outside, which will put him in front of Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith. That is actually a good thing against Baltimore, because I think slot CB Marlon Humphrey is the best Ravens DB. After last week’s performance (10-152-1), this feels “chasey,” as he is not going to sneak up on anyone this week. The Ravens have seen the tape and will likely press at the line of scrimmage and/or stick a safety over the top to try and force Wentz to look elsewhere. Still, the kid looks legit, with a league-best 3.8 yards per route run, getting 17.4 yards per reception (Wentz’s passer rating is 156.2 when targeting him). With script likely forcing Wentz into a ton of dropbacks, he could get another 10-plus targets. The Ravens have allowed a healthy 70% completion rate over their last three games, so this is not a shutdown unit by any means. They allowed Brandin Cooks 5-95-0, Terry McLaurin 10-118-0 and 4-62-0 on 8 targets last week against Tee Higgins. Kansas City scored the only two WR TDs against them this season, which has kept their fantasy points per game allowed seventh-lowest.

Checking in on the heat map at Sharp Football, you can see how successful Fulgham has been in the short sample and where that success took place. 

Below is the success rate (in QB rating) against the BAL D. Again, I am on the BAL D, but at Fulgham’s prices it is hard to ignore a potential double-digit target game. 

Miles Sanders has been a victim of the line injuries and brutal schedule. I don’t want to chase that long TD he popped last week, which accounted for 74 of his 99 total yards. It is mind-blowing he only has 4 targets in each of his last two games, but that is the reality. Hopefully they get him more involved as a pass catcher this week, after Baltimore allowed the Washington backs 11-122-0 in Week 4. A hope and a prayer is not how I like to build lineups, so I will pass on Sanders once more at his $6.6k (DK) and $7.6k (FD) price tag. 

Core plays: Ravens DST, Mark Andrews, Travis Fulgham

GPP only: Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson

CHI +3. O/U: 44
CHI: 21.5 | CAR: 23

Pace and playcalling 

This game doesn’t have a great pace outlook, and is one of three games with a total of 45 or below (Denver/New England and Washington/Giants are the other two). These two teams are 4-6 to the UNDER, with Chicago games generating the fewest combined points. In a year with scoring way up, it is hard to win a GPP with a 45- to 50-point game, as one of the high totals is bound to hit when there is 5-7 games a slate with a 50-plus total. That said, games like Philadelphia/Pittsburgh happen all the time, so on we go with the analysis. 

Chicago is 28th in neutral pace and doesn’t speed up much even when down by a touchdown or more. They are passing a lot more than we are used to, ranking fourth in overall pass rate (third when down by at least 7, 73%). They will dial that way back once ahead by even a field goal, dropping to a 48% pass rate. That tells us we need to root for Carolina to come out and get a lead to keep Chicago pass-happy. 

Panthers opponents love to run the ball, though their improved offense has taken some pressure off the run D. Carolina’s opponents have picked up 37.43% yards on the ground (sixth-most). 57.14% of their opponents’ TDs have come via the rush (first). 

Carolina is playing much slower but also more efficient than the 2019 version. They are seventh in yards per drive after finishing 26th last year, which has led to 25 PPG in their last three (21.4 in 2019). They pass at a 58% rate (league average) and only go to 62% when down at least 7. 

Bears

Nick Foles is not a guy I will play outside of a 2QB fantasy league and even then I won’t be thrilled. Any QB can toss 2-3 scores on any given Sunday, but a 5.5 ANY/A (30th) isn’t something I want to invest in. With Carolina last in fantasy points per game allowed to RBs, QBs have done next to nothing against them. They have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position, behind just the Colts and Bears. 

That makes an easy transition to RB David Montgomery, who is terribly mispriced on FD at $5.9k. He should be one of the most popular players on the slate, and for good reason. Since Tarik Cohen was put on IR, Monty has seen 85% and 81% of team snaps. In his 19 games prior, he maxed out at 73%. With the added playing time he doubled his routes run, seeing 14 targets in those two games (10-60-0). His rushing output was brutal in those two games, but then we see it was INDY and TB and it makes sense. 

The Bears are 12th in adjusted line yards per carry, up from 29th in 2019. They are also second in Football Outsider’s “stuffed percentage,” which is the percentage of carries the RB is “tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage.” They are also fifth in second-level yards, which are defined as “yards earned by opposing running backs against this team between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries,” while the Carolina D is 28th. Carolina has also allowed 5.12 RB yards per carry and missed the third-most tackles, while Monty has gotten better in terms of yards created, ranking eighth in yards after contact and fifth in broken tackles. 

Allen Robinson is a usage monster in this offense, with a nine-target floor and most targets in the lead. Since Mitchell Trubisky was pulled after 39 snaps in ATL, Robinson has become a legit WR1 in every aspect. By adding that filter to our NFL Splits tool, you can see just how awesome he has been. 

Donte Jackson (toe) was limited but doesn’t carry an injury designation after Friday’s practice. Eli Apple practiced fully Thursday, but he’s apparently still a game-time decision. Robinson moves all over the formation, including 25% inside. Whether facing Jackson, Apple or Rasul Douglas, Robinson should have a lot of success. Carolina has allowed big games to other high-usage alpha WRs this season, including 8-136-0 to Calvin Ridley, 13-132-1 to Keenan Allen, and 7-104-1 to Mike Evans, and 7-41-0 to DeAndre Hopkins. He is habitually underowned on these full slates and will be again, with a projected DFS ownership percentage at under 10% in DK. With his price being the same on FD ($7k), he should be a bit more popular. 

Darnell Mooney (6.33 targets per game with Foles), Anthony Miller (4.5) and Jimmy Graham (6.33) are three players who won’t be on my teams this week. It’s Robinson and Montgomery, and that’s a wrap for the Bears. 

Panthers

DFS is a “what have you done for me lately” game. Last week’s chalk, the Panthers, are a mere afterthought on this slate. Teddy Bridgewater was our cash game QB, and he posted his second 300-yard and multiple-TD game this season in Atlanta. This week, he is projected to be 3% owned, with the Bears allowing 12.9 fantasy points per game to QBs. Looking further, they haven’t been tested. Matthew Stafford put up 297-1-1 against them, with a terrible late TD drop by D’Andre Swift. They also faced Daniel Jones when Saquon Barkley went down and two fellow senior citizens in Philip Rivers and Tom Brady. All that means is I am not ready to declare this Bears D the second coming of the ‘85 team. They are 28th in pressure rate and 21st in adjusted sack rate, with only Khalil Mack doing much of anything in pass rush. Bridgewater’s quick release and the offensive line play has led him to see pressure at the third-lowest rate (13.8%) this season. 

That said, they also aren’t a team to line up stacks against. We may get 1-2 players that reach value here, where Bridgewater, Mike Davis, D.J. Moore, and (of course) Robby Anderson all smashed last week. The Bears are third in points per drive, first in TDs and sixth in yards per drive allowed. 

Per Sports Illustrated, “The Panthers are 27th in touchdown percentage (50%), while this week’s opponent the Chicago Bears are first in opponent red zone touchdown percentage (36.8%)” 

Yards have not been the issue for Carolina, ranking right behind the Chiefs at 40.61 yards per drive. Kicker Joey Slye (seventh in total points) has been way too busy as a result of them stalling at the finish line. 

Robby Anderson is a WR1 (fourth in receptions, third in yards), not just in Carolina but in fantasy. The books and DFS sites are slow to react, posting his catch prop at 5.5 after two straight with 8 receptions on 24 total targets. Who cares what happened in New Jersey, this is a big/fast receiver seeing the seventh-most targets per game (27.7% target share, 29.7% without Christian McCaffrey) and a 28.6% red-zone target share. Again, the routes/targets he is getting are night and day, with his average target distance going from ninth to 62nd this season (1.7 deep targets per game, 13th)

Buster Skrine has allowed the fourth-most yards allowed in the slot. Anderson has run 29% of his routes and has seen a 29.2% target share when lining up inside. I continue to show his Next Gen Route Chart, and he keeps smashing, so my superstitious side says to do it again. Plus, it really is a great example of how much coaching/scheme/situation plays in a football player’s success — now known as the “Gase Factor.” 

Mike Davis (23.7% target share) is the other Carolina player I am using this week. We just saw Ronald Jones post 125 total yards on 20 touches against this D, with the Bears allowing 4.55 RB yards per carry. Davis has 30 catches on 33 targets the past four games, averaging 106.5 total yards p/g, good enough for RB4 on the season. Much like the Bears’ soft QB schedule, they have also not faced anything resembling a top-five RB in 2020. Still, they allowed 114 total yards to Adrian Pederson and 14-80-1 to Todd Gurley, so they are nothing to fear. Per our guy Derek Brown, “The Chicago Bears are 31st in explosive run rate allowed… Davis ranks sixth in breakaway runs (3) and tenth in breakaway run rate (6.5%). With the backfield to himself and a median projection in the neighborhood of 15-20 touches, Davis is due to break at least one long run this week”.

Again, this is not a spot to stack the Panthers, so after getting some exposure to Davis and Anderson, I won’t have room for D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel or Ian Thomas. 

Core plays: David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, Mike Davis 

GPP only: Robby Anderson

CIN +8. O/U: 46.5
CIN: 18.5 | IND: 27.5

Pace and playcalling 

Cincinnati is fifth in neutral pass rate (63%) and plays at a league average pace in all situations. The Bengals pass at 67% when down at least 7, which is how the oddsmakers see this playing out. 

Indy is willing to play slowly and run when neutral or ahead. They have only been down by at least 7 for 40 plays this season but did turn it up to a 67% pass rate. The shift is dramatic when they get a lead, dropping to a 45% pass rate. 

Cincinnati is fourth in rushing yards percentage allowed (41.02%), with their opponents running at the 22nd-highest rate. 

Bengals

Cincinnati struggled mightily last week against Baltimore, allowing 7 sacks and turning it over twice. Now they have to contend with the No. 1 defense per DVOA, one that is allowing the fourth-fewest yards and second-fewest points per drive. The Colts are right behind Baltimore in pressure rate, so this could be another long day for the Bengals and Joe Burrow, who leads the NFL in pass attempts (48.4 per game). Indy has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the QB position. 

Bobby Hart has allowed 21 pressures, tied for the second-most in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Linebacker Darius Leonard is doubtful, but defensive tackle/end Denico Autry, tackle and defensive end Justin Houston are questionable. Cincinnati will benefit if these guys are all OUT, but I am not sure how much it matters (Cincinnati is 32nd in adjusted sack rate allowed). 

Joe Mixon has taken over as the No. 1 RB in opportunity share after 31 and 34 combined touches and targets in his last two games. Even in a tough matchup, the Bengals are going to feed Mixon the rock here to limited how many hits Burrow takes. It may not be ultra-efficient, but 20-plus touches is certainly the projection. 

Tyler Boyd ran into my dude Marlon Humphrey last week, so no surprise he showed us his floor, posting 4-42-0 on 6 targets. This week he is back in our lives against Colts slot CB Kenny Moore. Moore has played well (9-118-0 on 14 targets this season), but the teams and opponents he has hardly been a murderer’s row of slot receivers, with the likes of Braxton Barrios, Keelan Cole and two of the heaviest rush teams in Cleveland and Minnesota. 

Tee Higgins, (the “other”) Mike Thomas and A.J. Green will run into Rock Ya-Sin and a rejuvenated Xavier Rhodes on the outside. Rhodes is no longer shadowing an opponent’s best WR, but he is playing as well as we have seen him in a few years. Last year in Minnesota he was 76th in passer rating allowed in coverage, which has improved to fifth in 2020 (6.2 FPPG in coverage). 

I wrote Thomas before Green for a reason, as he outsnapped the declining superstar last week for the first time, with Higgins leading all WRs with an 81% snap share. He has 30 targets over the past four weeks, averaging 4-68-0 over his last two games. Auden Tate is OUT, and Thomas is just out there exercising, seeing 4 targets over his last three games and 34 routes run. Higgins on the other hand has seen 15 targets in his last two (Green had one target last week). 

Colts

Jonathan Taylor is going to be a popular play with DT DJ Reader OUT and Cincinnati already allowing 4.93 adjusted and 5.26 RB yards per carry. Taylor has averaged 15 touches over his past three games after the big 28-touch performance in Week 2 that everyone keeps chasing. He is just 27th in opportunity share (51.7%), and 19th in WOPR. He is only 63rd in fantasy points per opportunity, seeing just 7 targets in his last four games to 13 for Nyheim Hines. I get the love, playing at home as a big favorite against the Bengals, but with his ownership projected at nearly 15%, I can’t do it on a main lineup (46th in yards created per carry). In MME, I would get 5-7% exposure. 

Philip Rivers is not someone we have played yet this season, and that could remain the case for the entire season. He is Trent Dilfer at this point, a game manager — only one that makes stupid throws that leads to turnovers. I don’t have any interest in him or T.Y. Hilton, even after a season-high 10 targets (6-69-0). Looking at Hilton’s splits without Andrew Luck, which also correlate with advanced age and injuries, you can see everyone is holding on to a past that is long gone. Without Luck (41 games), Hilton is averaging 11.58 FPPG, compared to 16.47 with the retired QB. The splits are even more dramatic (+5.16 FPPG) when you look at their last 60 games (30 with and 30 without). 

Trey Burton is the one Colts player I have my eye on with Mo Alie-Cox OUT and Jack Doyle being phased out recently. He has 11 targets since he made his debut in Week 4. He still hasn’t hit 20 routes in a game, which means Rivers is looking his way often when he is on the field (31.4% target rate on those routes). Alie-Cox was in the lead with 4 end-zone targets, which paves the way for Burton to emerge. Doyle has only been targeted on 8.5% of his routes since Burton returned. In a week (year) so starved for TE production, he is in the player pool against Cincinnati, seventh-worst in tight end yards allowed and sixth-worst in tight end receptions.

Core plays: N/A (Taylor is going to be the chalk, but he is not in my top-three for cash RBs, so GPP only, despite relatively high ownership)

GPP only: Trey Burton, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon 

CLE +3.5. O/U: 51
CLE: 23.5 | PIT: 27.5

Pace and playcalling 

This game opened with a much higher total than I anticipated. The public hates to bet unders, so as the 2020 high-scoring trend keeps going, they need to bring up the totals to balance the action, as their primary goal is to make money on the rake and avoid taking on risk by being too heavy on one side of a bet. Even with the high total for a matchup that yielded 30 PPG on average last year, both the public and the big money are pounding the over. 

The Browns (31 PPG, fourth) play at a good pace (eighth, neutral), but run at the league’s highest rate, which then increases if they get a lead to a 60% rush rate. 

The Steelers (29.5 PPG, 10th) play slow in all situations, and have some funky pace splits where they have actually played slower when behind. There is not much difference in their pace or playcalling thus far for Pittsburgh, regardless of script. Once the Steelers get a lead of at least 6, they roll back to a 42% pass rate, but even their overall pass rate is 55%, so there are fine handing the ball off if the situation presents itself. Even last week, in a back-and-forth high-scoring game, PITT only passed at a 52% rate, fifth-lowest of Week 5. 

The one stat that does stand out to make this one more pass happy is their opponent pass rate, which is first (Pittsburgh) and second overall (both top-seven in RB yards allowed per carry). That is also a result of these teams being a combined 8-1 and their opponent trying to catch up. 

Browns

The Steelers have dominated the Browns, winning their last 13 games in Pittsburgh. 

Baker Mayfield was dead for DFS after posting 15 FP in a game his team scored 49 points. If he couldn’t hit a top-10 game in that situation, it isn’t going to happen in Pittsburgh. He is banged up on top of being shitty (32nd in clean-pocket percentage, telling us he isn’t even efficient when clean). He gets even worse under pressure (3.9 Y/A), which is where the Steelers excel (first in pressure and blitz rate). Cleveland is not going to expose him in this matchup with a bum shoulder, so expect a steady dose of Kareem Hunt into the teeth of the No. 1 rush DVOA defense, allowing just 1.97 adjusted line yards per game. 

Hunt saw a season-high 23 touches in his first game without his RBBC partner, Nick Chubb. He only got 93 total yards in a tough matchup (3.6 YPC), but he did score on a TD pass, which saved all the chalk donkeys who played him last week (sorry if that was you). Hunt has been very TD-dependent this year and will need a TD to pay off again this week. He has 6 TDs in five games, putting him on a 20-TD pace. That is not going to happen, but after 17 RZ touches in three games and no Chubb, he will have one of the higher TD props on the slate. 

Odell Beckham missed Friday’s practice with a non-COVID illness. He has passed all tests and is on pace to play Sunday, but that’s a situation worth monitoring. The Steelers have been vulnerable to opposing WRs, despite only allowing the fourth-most FPPG to the position, as again, teams are passing at a very high rate against Pittsburgh this season. He is the alpha in the offense over Jarvis Landry, seeing 27.7% of team targets, but in a low-volume offense that is only good for 7.8 targets per game. 

Check back in for an update here on Beckham and Landry, who would get a big usage bump if Beckham misses. 

The other player who would get a usage boost is TE Austin Hooper, who is my favorite Browns player in this matchup, especially if Beckham is a surprise inactive. 

Hooper’s usage is on the rise, with 7 and 10 targets in his last two, making him second in TE target share over that span. I was concerned with David Njoku coming back, but Hooper ran three times as many routes as Njoku and Harrison Bryant last week.

Steelers 

The Steelers will be without two starters — G David DeCastro and WR Diontae Johnson. Maurkice Pouncey (foot), JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Eric Ebron (hand) were removed from the injury report. 

Ben Roethlisberger has been good-not-great in his 2020 return, throwing multiple TD passes in every game, including the three last week to Chase Claypool. He has only hit 240 yards once this season however, and without any rushing ability, it’s tough for him to get to the 30-point fantasy ceiling we want in tournaments. The Browns pass defense has not been good, allowing 12 TD passes in four games before getting a Philip Rivers “bye” week in Week 5. They have the No. 19 pass DVOA, and are struggling at safety, with Ronnie Harrison and Karl Joseph OUT again. Former Vikings S Andrew Sendejo has played so poorly since joining the Browns that Cleveland fans have started an online petition to get him benched (his PFF grade is down nearly 30 points from last season). Cleveland is middle of the pack in terms of pass rush, which has me projecting 250 passing yards and 2-3 TD passes for Roethlisberger, good enough for another top-12 finish, but nothing that will get you too excited. 

Chase Claypool was the most talked about WR this week — after scoring four times, everyone needs to know if this was real or a one-time event. The answer is both. He is really a big (6-4) receiver with a 99th-percentile height-adjusted speed score, which will put him in advantageous matchups nearly every week. This week, Denzel Ward can run/cover him, but he gives up five inches to the rookie, putting him at a major disadvantage, especially in the red zone. Ward is not shadowing, so Claypool will work on him and veteran Terrance Mitchell on the outside. Mitchell also gives up the height to the kid, but he also gives up a ton of speed. The other factor working for Claypool is Diontae Johnson has already been ruled out, leaving him and James Washington on the outside and JuJu Smith Schuster in the slot in three-WR sets (68% of plays). Ray-Ray McCloud III will also be in the mix after catching all three of his targets last week. 

Kevin Johnson is often injured, but when active he is a solid CB who will be JuJu’s primary defender inside. He helps this pass D if he can stay on the field, as their other slot CB, Tavierre Thomas, had allowed 19 receptions on 22 targets thrown at him this season. 

James Conner has seen his snap count fall from 77% to 63% to 57%, which makes sense given his injury track record. He is still being worked like a RB1, getting 18 touches a game in games he didn’t leave early. His opportunity share is way below what we want at 53.9% (24th), and this matchup is not good, with Cleveland fixing their Achilles heel from last year, allowing 3.7 RB yards per carry. They held Ezekiel Elliott, Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon to under 57 rush yards by pushing opponents into the second-highest pass rate against. He is 25th in RB routes and 30th in targets, so we really need TDs from Conner to pay off, something I am not a fan of chasing. 

Claypool killed our Eric Ebron play last week, stealing all the scores, something you are specifically buying the TE for. He was OK, catching five receptions for his second straight game to go along with 43-plus yards in each. He fumbled last week, which didn’t help, but now draws an even better matchup with the Cleveland linebackers and safeties. They have allowed the fourth-most TE receptions and 4 TDs (fifth-most FP), after finishing with the same ranking last season. 

Core plays: N/A

GPP only: Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Austin Hooper (cash if Beckham is OUT)

DET -3. O/U: 54
DET: 29.5 | JAX: 24.5

Pace and playcalling 

Detroit plays at a league-average pace in neutral situations, but eighth overall. They are all over the place with their pace splits, which makes sense under Matt Patricia. Most coaches are IQ challenged, but Patricia is a caveman who tests my limits when betting on or playing Lions players. 

The Lions have seen their opponents run at the highest rate this season (49.8% pass rate). Lions are also running more this season, passing at a 60% rate overall and 54% pass rate when up by 6 or more. 

This game sets up well and terribly all at the same time, with them combining for the fifth-lowest combined plays per game average (65.5). Ideally, we want Jacksonville to get a lead and get the Lions and Patricia away from Adrian Peterson. 

Lions

Matthew Stafford seems to be the same player as always; he is just being handicapped a bit by Patricia and this version of the Lions offense, which is not playing as aggressively with deep pass attempts, the thing that made them so great for DFS last season. This is the get-well matchup, as long as these coaches don’t get in the way. The Jags are the 31st- or 32nd-ranked pass defense in almost every metric you can reference, including yards per pass attempt, completion rate and still have a bunch of injury issues, including slot CB D.J. Hayden, Myles Jack and C.J. Henderson. 

Lions RBs have been a situation to avoid (like the plague) and that is the case once again with D’Andre Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johsnon in a 3-way RBBC that changes from week to week in order to “keep their opponents” guessing. 

Kenny Golladay came out of the gate limping in 2020 but returned before the Lions’ bye to post 6-67-1 (7 targets) and 4-62-1 (8 targets). Golladay should smash in this spot — after an extra week of healing and practice time with Stafford, Kenny G is a top-five receiver on the slate, both in projection and ownership. 

Unless you are running out more than one Stafford lineup, I don’t think Marvin Jones or T.J. Hockenson is necessary on three-max or single-entry.

Injuries 

• Lions LG Joe Dahl back at practice, but he remains on IR. A second starting OL, center Frank Ragnow suffered a groin injury and questionable 
• We may know more on Saturday, as teams downgrade a player to OUT if they do not travel with the team.
• Adrian Peterson returned to practice and is off the injury report while Desmond Trufant missed his third straight practice and is officially out for Week 6.

Jaguars

James Robinson (80% opportunity share, fifth) has screwed us for two straight weeks, but the dude still looks great, and even those “bad” games got us 14.7 and 11 fantasy points (w/ the fumble). Going back home, where his breakout performance took place (129 total yards, 2 TDs), we need to go back to the well one more time in what could be the “Last Dance” for Robinson as a core play. Detroit is dead last in adjusted line yards allowed, giving up 5.6 YPC to backs and the third-most fantasy points. 

Laviska Shenault was banged up to start the week but was removed from the injury report. I played him on my main DK lineup last week and wasn’t disappointed, despite him not scoring a TD or getting any rushing points (7-79-0). He leads the team in targets (28) and catches (23) on the season and is a legit threat in the running attack. 

D.J. Chark is also trending toward playing, but it is not confirmed and his availability changes the outlook for all these Jags players. With that in mind, plan on a full update Saturday or early Sunday when we get the official report. That said, I doubt he will be on any of my main LUs. With Shenault and Robinson, this is a different offense than last year in terms of distribution. In addition to those two, Chris Conley, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert and Collin Johnson (3 rec and a TD last week) are firmly in the mix, as is Chris Thompson. Even TE2 James O’Shaughnessy is seeing 3.5 targets a game in his last three is a possible troll. Not to mention, Gardner Minshew is also rushing 3-4 times a game. Toss on low play-volume and a slow pace and you are left with a pretty nasty fantasy situation simply due to too many cooks in the kitchen. 

Core plays: James Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Laviska Shenault

GPP only: Matthew Stafford, Gardner Minshew 

TEN -3.5. O/U: 53.5 
HOU: 25 | TEN: 28.5

Pace and playcalling 

Both of these teams play at a top-10 neutral pace and top-seven overall. Tennessee wants to run, we know this. They are coming into Week 6 with the fourth-highest overall rush rate. The Titans haven’t trailed much this season (52 snaps down by at least 3), and they stuck to their guns in terms of rush rate, passing on just 49% of those snaps (last). 

The Texans are passing more, and consistently — 65% in neutral situations, and 66% when down by 3 or more. 

The Titans are a popular bet, after dominating a good Bills team on national TV and averaging 30.5 PPG this season. Bettors also like the over in this one, with both the public and % of money backing a high-scoring affair. 

Texans

Deshaun Watson has completed 83% of his passes for almost 10 YPA when kept clean (second-best), so this should be a good spot for him with Tennessee ranking 26th in pressure rate. Watson has turned it on, landing in the Sunday a.m. core lineup in consecutive weeks, and maybe for a third here. He posted 24 and 29 fantasy points, which will get it done at his price point. They used more play action pass in his first start without Bill O’Brien as the HC. They used a higher play-action rate, which is money in the bank for Watson. Tennessee is nothing to fear — without Adoree’ Jackson this secondary is slow and a bit long in the tooth. 

Houston is 29th in first-quarter and 24th in first-half scoring. This has been Watson’s M.O. since he came into the league, falling behind and then charging back in the second half. 

Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb are in plus matchups with Jackson on IR; this is a great spot for this offense. Tennessee CB Chris Jackson has allowed 10-83-2 in his last two games, grading out as one of the worst CBs in the 2020 season. Ex-Texan Johnathan Joseph is still solid, but both he and Malcolm Butler are on the downside of their careers. With Watson heating up and this Houston D likely putting them in good a fantasy gamescript once again, this Houston stack will likely be on a three-max. 

The big news we need, just like last week, is Jordan Akins. Akins is a game-time decision once again according to interim head coach Romeo Crennel. If he sits again, Darren Fells is back in our lives as a value TE option to link up with Watson. 

Titans

Ryan Tannehill is like so many QBs this season, with his team preferring to limit his volume and run the football. That creates a tough situation for DFS, as a guy averaging 33 attempts per game (28th) is very tough to trust. He isn’t running much, if at all anymore, so with low attempts/yards he is very reliant on TDs. In his two his three starts with TD passes, he is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game (9 TDs in three games), vs. 11 points per gane when he does not throw a TD. 

Tennessee would prefer to run it with Derrick Henry, play defense and go home with a win. Henry has at least 20 touches in all four games, and a league-leading 29 RZ touches. The big combo game of yards and multiple TDs hasn’t hit yet, but this seems like the week. Houston has been getting run over by lesser backs, averaging 5.2 YPC allowed and the sixth-most FPPG to RBs. He has seen 34-28-25-19 touches, with last week being the floor. I think he is back in the 25-touch range, which makes him a no-brainer cash game/core running back (Houston is 26th in rush DVOA). 

A.J. Brown in cash is a decision many are contemplating. Same with playing them together in cash. With both players being big red-zone guys, they naturally eat into each other’s upside. They want different gamescripts, so if we play them together, it is just to price enforce on Brown. He normally is not someone I am looking for in cash, since I prefer high volume/target players. But DK left him way too cheap. At $5.6k, he is arguably the best value play on the entire slate, regardless of his scheduled shadow coverage from Bradley Roby. He should be closer to $6.5k-$7k, after seeing 32% of Tannehill’s targets (9), catching 7 balls for 82 yards and a score. He now has two games under his 2020 belt, and 17 targets (after 5.2 per game in 2019). For those who like “BvP,” how about 8-114-1 and 4-124-1 against Houston in 2019?

Both Corey Davis and Adam Humphries should be back this week to complement Brown. Along with Jonnu Smith, that makes this a formidable group. Those two coming back is your reason to fade Brown, who should be close to 20% owned. 

Core plays: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown (DK), Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller

GPP only: Brandin Cooks, Ryan Tannehill/A.J. Brown/Jonnu Smith/Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks stack, David Johnson, Darren Fells (if Akins is OUT) 

NE -8.5. O/U: 44.5
DEN: 18 | NE: 44.5

DEN @ NE 

NE -7.5. O/U: 45.5

DEN: 19.5 | NE: 26.5

Pace and Play-Calling 

Pats have moved quicker but carry in the most extreme pace splits of any team. Their pace when down is 21.32 seconds per play (3rd), versus 36 sec. per play (31st). As a TD home favorite, and DEN dealing with key injuries, this is a tough spot to expect the @SEA version of this NE team. 

NE runs heavy in neutral situations (50%), and then take it even further with a lead (42%). Again, if DEN can surprise with their offense (30th in yards per drive, 29th points per drive), we will see a different team, but I am not counting on it. 

Denver ranks third in passing rate when trailing (73%) and 22nd in pace when down 7+, and 55% in neutral situations. 

DEN 

Injuries 

Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant, & KJ Hamler are OUT 

Since week 3, Fant-Gordon-Hamler saw 50% of Denver’s targets, opening up a ton of opportunity for Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy, and Philip Lindsay. 

Yes, NE D allowed 9 passing TDs, but 7 of those were from RW3 and Mahomes. They are way down in DVOA, from #1 at this time last season to 21st this year.

Jerry Jeudy is in a great spot for volume with Gordon, Fant, and Hamler OUT. NE has allowed some production to slot WRs, specifically 6-84-1 ti Hunter Renfrow in a similar situation. 

Denver targets their RBs at the 6th highest rate, which sets up Philip Lindsay well in the passing game. On the ground, the DEN OL has been brutal, 31st in adjusted line yards. NE has been nothing special against the run luckily, 19th in the same stat. 

Per Mile High Report.com

“For Shurmur…He’s got an offense to design and a game-plan to implement with Lindsay coming back in the lineup this week as the Broncos travel to take on the New England Patriots. “Getting another good player back is important for us,” Shurmur said on Thursday. “You’ve heard me say it in these meetings a bunch of times, but you need multiple good running backs. To be able to add Philip Lindsay back to the mix is huge…. I like to run the football and I like to call plays that gain yards. We always go in thinking these are the things we want to do to run the ball and have success running the ball, so having Philip back just kind of adds to that.” 

Coming off injury, and not a back that has seen heavy usage rates, expect Royce Freeman (11.3 touches + targets in 2019) to stay in his same role, which means the 25-35% snap share range. This will likely look like 2019, where Lindsay saw a 58% opportunity share, getting 14 carries and 3 targets per game. Lindsay is cheap on both site, and the best value RB on the board. I have him on a main lineup right now as a value RB so I can stack GB/TB. 

Tim Patrick runs almost exclusively outside, which will put him in front of Stephon Gilmore for the majority of his snaps. I assume Gilmore, who was cleared from the COVID list to match up with the 6’-4” WR. It is a tough matchup to go after, but he has looked good, posting 6-113-1 and 4-43-1 in his last two games. 
 

NE

Sony Michel is inactive, which means Damien Harris should slide into that role once again. He saw 17 carries, rushing for 100 yards. 

James White and Rex Burkhead are still in the mix, getting a combined 18 carries and 8 receptions. Harris has some appeal if you are anticipating NE to cover, as a home favorite, they will run a lot which means another 15+ carries for Harris. The other obvious factor is Cam Newton, who will always be a threat to a RB with his goal line usage. If you submit 20+ LUs on FanDuel, I would get a Harris + NE DST team in it, but I don’t have an interest in him on full-PPR Draftkings.  Denver is 7th in rush DVOA, and have allowed the 4th fewest FP to RBs. 
 

Julian Edelman gets a slot-friendly matchup, with Denver allowing 10 targets a game inside. Jamison Crowder (7-104-0), Chris Godwin (5-64-1), Adam Humphries (6-47-0), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (7-48-0) have all had productive games against Essang Bassey & De’Vante Bausby. Edelman has been the alpha, seeing 44% of team air yards, and 25.25% of targets.

He like all the NE passing game options are tied to script since they are happy to be ultra run-heavy. Damiere Byrd has been getting more work (20.33% this season). Over his last three games, he actually has a slight an in target share. Burkhead/White and N’Keal Harry are also seeing 17-22% of team targets, which makes this a low volume offense with a lot of mouths to feed tied to a coach who does not care about your fantasy team. 

NE Target share over their last three games via our Air Yards tool 

Core plays: Lindsay 

GPP Only: Jeudy, Harris, NE DST, Edelman, Byrd 

WAS +3. O/U: 43.5
WAS: 20.5 | NYG: 23

Pace and playcalling 

The Football Team is third in neutral and sixth in overall pace. Very little of that data is from Kyle Allen at QB, but I am assuming they will stick to their plan, such as it is. They are middle of the pack in neutral pass rate (58% this season, 56% over their past two games). They will turn it up to 66% when trailing and play very fast (24 seconds per play). 

The Giants are not the team to count on for offense. They are 30th in points per drive (Washington is 31st). The Giants rank 20th in neutral pace, but are pass-heavy, ninth in neutral pass rate, which goes to 66% when trailing. I say it all the time, don’t assume fast pace equals lots of fantasy points. Washington has a legit D, fourth in overall DVOA and now with Chase Young back to improve their pass rush. 

This is one of the uglier offensive matchups I have ever seen from an underlying stats perspective (and the overlying ones). The defenses are 24th (NYG) and 16th in points allowed per drive, but they are 11th (Washington) and 13th best in yards per play allowed, and these teams are 26th (NYG) and 23rd in giveaways per game, putting both defenses in play in GPPs. 

Football Team

At $4k, minimum price, Kyle Allen was interesting. Now that he is $5.1k, just $800 away from Ryan Fitzpatrick, no thanks. He can make plays with his legs, which does have its appeal, it’s just getting a script and enough points out of him to win a GPP seems like an improbable scenario. I know I like “ugly shootouts,” but that is based around terrible teams with terrible defenses. Again, Washington is legit so I’m not expecting the Giants to be able to do enough to push Allen into a shootout.

Antonio Gibson is a player we keep exploiting in the player prop market, as the line makers are a little slow to see the uptick in usage. He has come in behind J.D. McKissic (16 targets, 13 receptions in his last two) in snaps, a result of Washington getting blown out in both contests. If this game goes as I think (Washington wins), that should flip, with Gibson handling 24 of the last 30 rush attempts for the Football Team. Washington and New York are and bottom-three in adjusted line yards gain, so Gibson gets no help (the Giants are 15th in adjusted line yards allowed, with 4 rush TDs allowed the last three games). 

Terry McLaurin (18% slot rate) is a stud, but runs into another tough CB, with James Bradberry playing very well since Week 1. After holding Amari Cooper down last week, he has allowed 39 receiving yards in his last two games on 9 targets against him. Washington has been willing to move F1 inside, which is a way they could shake him loose from Bradberry (7% slot rate). He is a deep, large-field GPP play.

Giants

Like I said, I like the Washington DST in this spot, with the Giants offensive line allowing the third-highest pressure rate this season. Daniel Jones has not thrown a TD since Week 1. Moving along. 

Devonta Freeman has 33 carries for 103 yards in New York, averaging 17 touches per game since taking over as their RB1. The best way to protect Jones from the Washington pass rush is to run the ball and dump off short passes. Washington is 16th in rush DVOA and fourth against the pass, which again should push the Giants into a heavy Freeman game plan. Dion Lewis has matched him in targets over their last two games (7), which is capping his upside, along with the Giants unable to sustain drives or make it into the RZ. 

Sterling Shepard (toe) could have been activated, but the New York Giants smartly decided against it.

The big news is Darius Slayton, who is listed as questionable and has been called a game-time decision, though NY is, “expecting Darius to play. If the trainers tell me otherwise, they tell me otherwise,” head coach Joe Judge said.

With Shepard sidelined, Slayton leads the team in targets (25), receptions (14), yards (230), and air yards (328). Washington has yet to allow a 100-yard game to any WR this season

Evan Engram has been dragged down by Jones, with only one game with double-digit fantasy points. I don’t think anything is wrong with him, and this is a great matchup (fifth-most FP to TEs). He is capped by the offensive woes, so likely won’t be a guy I invest in despite the positive matchup. 

Core plays: Antonio Gibson 

GPP only: Washington DST, New York DST, Devonta Freeman 

NYJ +8. O/U: 47.5
NYJ: 19.5 | MIA: 28.5

Pace and playcalling 

It’s 2020, so of course the Dolphins are good at football. Miami is ninth in points per drive on the 11th most yards per drive. They are top-12 in points at over 27 per game, while being in the top-10 in points allowed at 22.7. Enter the Jets, who are 30th in points allowed per game and last in points scored. This is a massive mismatch on paper, which is why the public has bet the spread up to 9.5 from its 8-point open. 

The Jets rank third in total pace since they have been playing from behind since the opening kickoff in Week 1. They have played (by far) the most snaps while down by 7 or more, and they passed at a 60% clip, eighth-lowest in that situation, as the Jets take the “what’s the point” game plan fairly quickly this season. 

Jets

Jamison Crowder is the definition of a diamond in the rough, coming in Week 6 as the WR2 in fantasy points per game, posting three straight 100-yard games to go along with 22 catches and 2 TDs. Neither Byron Jones nor Xavien Howard travel into the slot, where Crowder runs 80% of his routes, which means he will work on a Breakdown favorite (to target), Nik Needham. At this point, Crowder’s price is a bit ridiculous, considering he is locked into a top-five matchup, with a great expected script. 

One word of caution on Crowder is that both Breshard Perriman and Denzel Mims returned to practice, so it’s possible the Jets will have a crowded WR core after Crowder was a one-man gang. I don’t think they kill Crowder’s value in the slot, as he is still priced down, but that could be all she wrote for both Chris Hogan and Jeff Smith. 

Le’Veon Bell is hone from New York, but we still aren’t looking to invest into this Frank Gore-led backfield. OT Mekhi Becton is listed as doubtful, putting a bigger strain on the backs, who have managed just 3.4 YPC this season. The rest of this team is a fade for me. 

Dolphins

Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins pass on 59% of their plays in neutral situations, but then close up shop once they get even a three-point lead (45% pass rate, seventh-lowest). That number declines even further with at least a seven-point lead (42%). A quick lead, fueled by the defense or via the ground, a field goal or two, and we could be left wanting more from FitzMagic and the Fish. 

Fitzpatrick has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last four on DK. He now has 11 games as a top-10 QB since getting the starting job last season. Again, script is the risk with NYJ allowing a 72.3% completion rate against. We saw it against Jacksonville — Fitzpatrick ran for 38 yards and a TD to mask it, but Miami only asked Fitz to drop back 20 times in that game, which yielded only 160 yards. He tossed two TDs, which also contributed to the ultra-low volume being overlooked. 

Myles Gaskin has yet to reach 100 total yards in a game this season, but has yet to finish lower than an RB3 in any week. Gaskin is coming off his second 20-touch game, and more importantly, his first rushing touchdown of the season. 

Jordan Howard was a healthy scratch last week, which led to Gaskin getting 20-plus touches in his second game in the last three. Gaskin has done a lot of damage in the passing game, but that too has some risk if Miami gets a big lead. Matt Breida got his season-high 10 touches last week, which is another factor that could lead to the Dolphins stacks coming up a little short. Knowing they want to get a lead and run, I could see Breida setting another season-high in touches.

DeVante Parker and Preston Williams are firmly in play, both as one-offs and in stacks with Fitz. Parker is the safer play, but he is also significantly more expensive and will come in at higher ownership. Both Jets outside CBs should struggle with these two, we just have to hope the Jets cam score enough to keep Fitz passing. Mike Gesicki has all the same factors that the WRs do, as Gesicki is essentially a slot WR. He is very volatile and the definition of a GPP play, with two top-five finishes, and three games with a combined 5 receptions. 

Core plays: Jamison Crowder, Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin 

GPP only: Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki 

GB -1.5. O/U: 54
GB: 27.5 | TB: 26.5

Pace and playcalling

Bettors are liking this game to be fantasy-friendly, betting it from 52 to 54 with both the public and% of money backing the OVER (TB/GB are a combined 6-3 to the OVER). There has also been heavy line movement for the Pack (38 PPG, first), with them turning into a road favorite after opening as a 3-point dog. GB is not only undefeated on the field, but they are also 4-0 ATS.

Green Bay is dominating their opponents, averaging 14.61 net yards per drive, 40% higher than second-place Indianapolis. What makes that statistic more impressive is the Packers haven’t had Davante Adams for a big chunk of the season, but Adams will be back in the lineup Sunday, which makes this team very scary for Tampa Bay and the NFC.

Green Bay plays below average in terms of neutral pace, and the slowest in the second half of games, a result of being 4-0. GB has the eighth-lowest pass rate and stayed run heavy on the 60-plus snaps they were trailing by 3 or more. They go down to a 48% pass rate when up at least 7, which is why Aaron Rodgers is only averaging 34.8 pass attempts per game (23rd).

The Buccaneers push their opponents into elevated pass rates with a stout run defense (2.48 RB yards per carry allowed), seeing teams pass on 64.26% of plays (fourth) after finishing first in 2019.

Green Bay runs 65.2 plays per game, which is league average, but makes up for that by being the most efficient offense thus far. The Packers average the most yards per play, red-zone attempts and points per drive (3.97 — 0.71 better than Seattle; Green Bay averages 4.5 TDs per game, second to the Seahawks).

Tampa Bay (28.3 PPG over its last three) has logical pace splits —30.79 seconds when in the lead (21st) and 23.44 seconds per play when trailing by 7 or more (sixth-fastest). They are passing at the sixth-highest overall rate and second-highest once they trail by a field goal (74% pass rate). Even when in the lead, they pass at a healthy 57% rate (fourth). Unlike Green Bay, Tampa Bay needs the extra plays and pace, ranking 19th in points per drive and 25th in yards per drive, putting them down with the Giants and Bears in that regard.

The Bruce Arians/Byron Leftwich offense has had early-game success, averaging 9.6 PPG in the first quarter (most) after finishing third last season. Green Bay starts off a bit slower (6 points per game in the first) but has put up 14 points per second quarter (second-most). If those trends continue, this game should fly over this high total.

Taking a look at where the targets are being distributed, both of these teams are in the top-five in targets to running backs, with the Packers second at 31.6%. That should level off some now that Adams is coming back, but they were top-seven in 2019 so they will still be a team that targets their backs often. Tom Brady has historically loved to throw to his backs, so we shouldn’t be surprised to see TB go from 19th last year with Jameis Winston to sixth in 2020 (25.6%).

Brady also loves TEs (not breaking news), which has Tampa Bay seventh in TE target share, up from 17th in 2019. That means the WRs have to be getting less usage. With the constant injuries to both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, TB is 30th in WR target rate (46.6%).

Packers

Efficiency outweighs volume when you are really good, and that’s what Aaron Rodgers has been. He is first in fantasy points per dropback at 0.7, which has him as fantasy’s QB6 for the season. Other positive metrics pointing up for the veteran: 6.8 deep ball attempts (second), third-best protection rate, sixth in red-zone pass attempts (7.5), and first in adjusted yards per attempt (10.4).

DFS rewards those who act quickly, and those who keep focusing on his less than great 2018 and 2019 campaigns are missing out on a Hall of Famer ballin’ out. Rodgers is almost 37, which is not “old” for QBs and their ceilings. We have seen Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning in the very recent past have massive fantasy years at 37 and older (Manning was 37 for his 55-touchdown season in Denver).

A big reason for the success in Green Bay is the offensive line (lowest pressure rate allowed). They have allowed Rodgers time to survey and pick apart defenses (77% completion rate when clean, 33% when under pressure). Like most games, pass rush will be a huge factor, as Tampa ranks fifth in pressure rate on the third-highest blitz percentage. Green Bay has played a very soft schedule in this regard too, with Detroit, New Orleans and Atlanta ranking in the bottom-12 in pressure rate.

Rodgers’ expected points added are +9.8 due to the big yards-after-catch numbers the Packers have racked up (4.42 YAC, fourth). But he is -1.4 in terms of passing TDs, despite tossing 13 without an INT. That tells us there is nothing alarming to signal negative regression, especially with Davante Adams back and a nice upcoming schedule with Jacksonville, Minnesota and Houston coming up after the game in Tampa.

The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to QBs, but they have faced Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan. That was a formidable list once upon a time, but this year that’s just four QBs ranking in the bottom-12.

Like most QBs, Rodgers excels in large-total games, averaging over 25 fantasy points in his last 12 (+4 FPPG), so there is only his price being a deterrent. He has moved from $6.2k to $7.5k in just two weeks, putting him up in “QBs that can run the ball” tier with Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Rodgers isn’t running anymore, ranking 39th in QB carries so we can’t use him in cash, but he is a strong GPP play

Aaron Jones continues to beast, especially with Adams out of the lineup. Using our NFL Splits tool, you can see Jones becomes Christian McCaffrey with the star receiver out, catching two more passes, dominating red-zone work (4 TDs in 6 games), averaging 27.13 FPPG on DK. That said, Jones’ numbers with Adams are still great, as are his splits when getting 14-plus carries regardless of Adams. In those games, Jones is averaging over 26 FPPG on DK, which jumps over 29 over his last 10 games with 14-plus carries. The GB offensive line is also dominating in the run, ranking fourth in adjusted line yards at 4.82 yards per carry (5.27 RB YPC, fifth). They are also third in second-level and fifth in open field rank, the only team in the top-five in all three categories. Jason Pierre-Paul was quoted this week saying, “No one runs on this (Tampa) D,” and that would continue despite the loss of their big DT, Vita Vea (second in PFF DL grades).

Tampa is brutal to run against (third in DVOA), though the loss of DT Vita Vea is significant. Either way, TB is a great defense for RBs in the passing game, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs through the air. The Buccaneers have already allowed two RBs to catch at least seven balls, including David Montgomery, whose career-high before that game was only four receptions. Regardless of the potential passing-game work, we don’t want to pay up for Jones in a tough matchup and Adams back on the field, which is why he is listed as GPP only (Jones is the most expensive RB on DK, with McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook OUT).

Davante Adams is back and should resume his role as a target hog (17 targets in Week 1). He could even get a bump in usage (if that is possible), with WR2 Allen Lazard OUT again (16.8% target share). Carlton Davis did a great job on Michael Thomas in Week 1, holding him to 3-17-0 and is a good CB, one of the best right now. That said, he allowed 9-109-0 to Robby Anderson in Week 2 and 10-90-0 to Allen Robinson last game. Regardless of whether Davis plays (he’s dealing with an abdominal issue), Adams will be heavily targeted. When you could see 15 targets or more, even a bad 50% catch rate gets you to 7-8 receptions, so I am not going to worry about him in GPPs. Davis has also not been traveling into the slot much (4.5%), so Adams can move inside (18% slot rate in 2019) to pick on Sean Murphy-Bunting. At his high prices, coming off an injury, he won’t make it into the Sunday morning cash core unless Davis is ruled OUT, but I will have him on at least one of my three-max lineups.

Robert Tonyan has been an obsession of mine, so it was awesome to watch him break the showdown slate with three TDs on 6 receptions (98 yards, 6 targets). Like I said last year, and then again in week one, these no-name players that ball-out in college (150 passes in three seasons at nearly 14 yards per reception and 20 TDs) can pop once given the opportunity, especially when the opportunity comes on an Aaron Rodgers heater.

Bob Tonyan just sounds like a big blocking TE, but he is a converted WR who is perfect for today’s game, an athletic or “move TE,” that lines up in the slot nearly as much as a traditional TE (40.2% of snaps from the slot). With Adams back, and his price highly elevated, he will be very contrarian despite two consecutive top-four TE finishes (he’s currently projected at 5% or less per our FTN ownership projection model). Yes, he did this with Adams out. It is a solid and logical argument. With Lazard OUT and the Pack already searching for a viable complement to Adams and Jones after not addressing the need in the off-season, I don’t see them sending Tonyan back to obscurity. Marcedes Lewis should be back, but he is all kinds of old and runs like Eliot Crist (slowly).

Lining up GB and TB directional passing charts via Sharp Football Stats you can see this is a favorable matchup for Tonyan. 

*Tampa D passer rating allowed 

*Rodgers passer rating to each receiver in different parts of the field

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is most affected with Adams coming back, after seeing 19 targets in three games with Adams out. That said, his biggest game this season came with Adams on the field in Week 1. He has been brutally inefficient (108th true catch rate), let’s just hope he doesn’t troll Adams, Jones or Tonyan. Same story for Jamaal Williams, who had 8-95-0 last game through the air with all the WRs out. We just have to hope he goes back to being quiet (5 targets in first three games).

Injuries

• Kevin King missed practice after playing just 43% of snaps in Chicago. There are no other significant players missing practice, just limited early, which means nothing. If anything pops up, I will update.

Buccaneers

Fellow old man Tom Brady continues to defy Father Time, ranking seventh on the Sunday slate and 10th overall in terms of DK fantasy points per game, ahead of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Matt Ryan, to name a few. This has been without his pair of stud WRs being on the field at the same time for the majority of the season. He is averaging 2.5 fantasy points per game more with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the field, which has only been two games and only one game where both played more than 81% of snaps (Week 1). Brady has had three top-12 finishes, with the one 36.6-point explosion. He is in that middle section of QB pricing, making him too expensive for cash games and thus “GPP only.” We only pay up at QB for players who can get points with their legs in cash.

Green Bay is not rushing the passer well, ranking 30th in pressure rate, which is the recipe Brady needs in these golden years. Like most QBs his pressure splits are dramatic, losing 40% on his completion rate when under duress. Packers have allowed a healthy 72% completion rate against for over 8 Y/A, and two or more TD passes allowed per game in three of four.

Ronald Jones has taken advantage of his opportunity, getting 46 touches and 253 total yards in his two games with Leonard Fournette sidelined (20.15 fantasy points per game for Jones without scoring a TD). He saw 14 targets, catching 9 for 36 yards, another promising sign for his value. GB plays a smart brand of defense, not worrying too much about rush D while focusing on the pass. Teams that do the opposite, whether intentionally or not, push teams into more pass attempts, which we know is the more efficient style of offense. This year GB keeps winning, which is pushing their opponents into more pass attempts, with their opponents passing at a 62.23% rate, up from 56% in 2019. With his price up and Fournette back, Jones also lands in the GPP pile, but a strong play for your GB stacks at low ownership (6% or less).

Mike Evans leads all receivers in touchdowns, seeing 21% of Brady’s RZ attempts and catching all five of his goal-line targets for 5 TDs. With him being so dependent on TDs, his expected points stick out (+15.5 over expected). Jaire Alexander is one of the better CBs and will shadow a team’s best WR. If Godwin is back, Evans becomes hard to use in this matchup. With Godwin on the field, Evans has 4 targets a game, compared to 9 without. Save him for large-field GPPs only if you mass multi-enter.

With O.J. Howard lost for the season, Cameron Brate played a season-high 46% of snaps last week, basically the same Howard was getting and matching his season-high 6 targets. Before getting too excited about Brate (5-44-0), the Buccaneers do want to use Tanner Hudson (targeted on 4 of his 8 routes).

Rob Gronkowski (limited, shoulder) saw six targets last week (3-52-0). He looks like he is running in cement, which is kind of sad considering the player he was. He is 25th or lower in numerous stats that matter, like FP per route run, and yards per route run. He is only seeing 10% of Brady’s RZ targets also which lowers his ceiling. He may pop once or twice this year with TDs, but it won’t be on my team.

Chris Godwin (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday and Thursday, which is encouraging for a return. Check back as the week progresses for more GOATwin news. He has the best matchup for TB inside against Will Redmond and Josh Jackson.

Injuries

• Mike Evans is playing banged-up (ankle), so will likely not be practicing much. I expect him to play, just like last week in CHI when he followed the same (no) practice schedule.
• Scott Miller (hip/groin) is also on the preliminary injury report and was limited. Tyler Johnson outsnapped him last week, playing his career-high 79% and seeing 6 targets to Miller’s 0. This is a situation to monitor with the WR playing opposite of Evans likely getting the softer matchup with Jaire Alexander likely shadowing Evans for the majority of snaps.
• Justin Watson is trending in a good direction after getting in a full practice. He has run 50% of his snaps out of the slot, so would likely need Godwin out to be viable, and even then, he’s a WR4 or WR5 at best.
• Leonard Fournette (ankle) was limited in practice Wednesday. He was an active last game but only played one snap.
• LeSean McCoy was OUT last week with a Grade 2 ankle sprain. With Lenny healthier and Ke’Shawn Vaughn finally seeing the field, it looks like that’s a wrap for Shady.
• TE OJ Howard and DT Vita Vea were both lost for the season. Both are significant, but losing a defensive tackle of Vea’s stature stands out. The Bucs have been lights out against the run and Vea is always in the middle (literally). When asked about the loss, Arians responded: “It’ll be a big loss. [When] you lose players like O.J. [Howard] and Vita, you can plug the next man in, but they’re not the same. I hate it for him because he was having such a great year.” Then he said this when the Buccaneers got back to work on Tuesday: “No one’s going to be Vita, but Todd [Bowles] has a good plan.” (source: Buccaneers.com).
• A big injury to monitor for fantasy is CB Carlton Davis (abdomen), who has been great this season, allowing a 65.0 passer rating in coverage.

Core plays: Chris Godwin ($6.4k on DK is so nice for Godwin. I am assuming he is playing; if he is ruled out I will update. At $7.7k on FD, he is GPP only. At that price, I would rather go a bit further and play Calvin Ridley)

GPP only (in order of exposure): Davante Adams ($9k on FD and $8k on DK, which is a tough price to pay anytime for a WR, especially on the 0.5 PPR site. With Carlton Davis trending in the right direction, I can’t pay that premium in cash).

Rodgers/Adams/Jones and Rodgers/Tonyan/Adams are my top GB stacks. My preferred runbacks are Ronald Jones, in addition to Godwin, of course.

Tom Brady/Godwin/Brate stacks are also something I have built, running it back with Aaron Jones and/or Adams.

SUNDAY AM UPDATE

Top Stacks: 

ATL/MINN

GB/TB

DET/JAX 

Honorable Mention – HOU/TENN

CASH Core (FD):  Fitz – Mattison – Monty – Thielen – JRob –  Burton – Ravens 

CASH Core (DK):  Fitz – Mattison – Monty – AJ Brown  – Kenny G – Davis  MIA D

The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE): Lindsay, Rodgers/Ronald Jones/Adams/Godwin, Fuller/Watson, Shenault Jr., Crowder (on MIA stacks)

Underweight – D. Henry, Hunt, Taylor 

Low(er) owned one-offs: ARob, Julio, Jefferson, Gibson, Gaskin