NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to The Breakdown for Week 14, a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.
For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.
I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 13.
#FTNDaily
All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.
“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.
AZ -2.5. O/U: 45.5
AZ: NA | NYG: NA
Pace and playcalling
This game doesn’t interest me much as a game-stack, but there are some solid one-offs to consider. That said, when you play a 13-game slate, unless you are multi-entering, you simply have to cross a game or two off, and this is one.
There are strong UNDER trends with both of these teams — New York is 3-9 to the UNDER, which is first (or last, depending on your perspective). Arizona is right behind, tied with four other teams at 4-8 to the UNDER. Even worse, they are 0-6 to the UNDER on the road, with their games coming averaging a full TD less than the total on average.
Arizona is still playing fast (first in neutral pace), runs the fifth-most plays, and is running at a top-eogjt rate overall and neutral situations.
New York played a little slower without Daniel Jones last week and ran at the fourth-highest rate (55%). With Jones, they passed at the 12th-highest rate (neutral), and shift from a 70% pass rate when trailing, and 46% when in the lead.
Arizona stays much more consistent in all situations, so we want them to get a lead to turn this into a shootout.
The Giants have allowed 15.3 PPG (sixth) in their last three and 22.1 (ninth) this season.
Cardinals
We have stayed far away from Kyler Murray since he hurt his shoulder against Seattle, and even though Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury insist he is fine, it’s hard to get behind him in DFS at his still premium price tag. He did toss 3 TD passes last week, but at 4.4 yards per pass play, that seems unsustainable.
Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are studs — I am not going to be shocked to see them produce in any matchup — but the Giants need to be taken seriously at this point (fifth in QB points allowed), so we shall wait another week (at least) before investing in Murray (Arizona has averaged 4.3 yards per play in their last three, 31st).
Kenyan Drake is one of my least favorite RBs, inefficient at just 4.4 yards per touch (51st), 62nd in juke rate and 58th in yards created. He does get volume (somehow), coming in sixth in carries, third in goal-line carries and fourth in red-zone touches, scoring four times in his last three games. New York has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to RBs after 132 total yards to the Seattle backfield. The Giants have been pushing teams into the pass, allowing the fifth-fewest rush attempts this season and third-fewest over their last four wins. One positive trend is that Drake has gotten is getting 4.0 targets a game over his last three after totaling 11 in his first eight games of the season. He still gives up third-down work to Chase Edmonds (4.7 targets per game in his last three), but it still helps provide him a higher floor.
I haven’t really featured Hopkins all season in the breakdown. I don’t like the way they use him (only 6% slot, 23.6% in 2019), even though the usage (9 targets per game), and production (17.9 fantasy points per game) is nearly identical to 2019 with Deshaun Watson (17.9 FPPG).
Christian Kirk is that .220 hitter with good power — when he hits a HR (6-TDs) things are great, but you could land on an 0-5, fueled by the 87th-ranked catch rate (57.4%) on the 98th-ranked target quality from Murray (stats per Player Profiler).
Giants
Wayne Gallman (19.3 carries per game in his last three) had his TD streak stopped thanks to Alfred Morris, who vultured four of the Giants five red-zone carries. That could cap the upside on Gallman, who doesn’t get a ton of targets either with Dion Lewis still playing his 20% snap share. If you strip away targets and goal-line usage, you are left with rush yards, and we can’t count on a 60-yard rush and 135 total rush yards to pay the bills. Arizona is middle of the pack in most RB stats allowed (4 rush TDs allowed, last two games), nothing to fear, but nothing to get overly excited to attack.
Daniel Jones and the passing game is also just “meh” — he offers some upside with his legs, but coming off of a hamstring injury, I don’t want to hang my hat on that.
While Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton and Evan Engram are all active, it is tough to get excited about any of them. While the defense was allowing 30 points a game last year, they got volume and positive script, but we don’t even get the with the defense playing well. Engram is the one to consider again with the scarcity at the position. He has a 30% target share in his last three games, and at least 8 targets in five of six.
Core plays: Kenyan Drake
GPP only: Evan Engram, Kyler Murray/DeAndre Hopkins stack, Wayne Gallman
DAL -3.5. O/U: 42.5
DAL: NA | CIN: NA
Pace and playcalling
This is the first “Andy Dalton Bowl,” with these teams coming in with a combined 5-18-1 record.
Dallas has managed 16.5 PPG in two tough matchups with Washington and Baltimore, but the Cowboys did manage 31 points against Minnesota three weeks ago to give us some hope here.
Dallas is 32nd in points allowed (32.8 PPG) after allowing 41 and 34 points in the last two. The Cowboys looked like a (bad) Pee Wee football team at times on defense last game, so maybe they can inject some life into the Joe Burrow-less Bengals, but it is hard to imagine they can do enough to win a GPP when seeing how bad they have been without him (per our NFL Splits tool).
Cowboys
Andy Dalton is what we expected. He’s hard to watch, but a bad defense and great wide receivers make him tempting. His ceiling (20.32 FP) came in Minnesota, where he tossed three TD passes, which is what I think he can reach here. He has always been better on the road, averaging 4 more fantasy points (last 32 games) and 7 more this season. At $5.5k, if he can somehow piece together a 250-yard game with the three scores, we would be happy. As you would expect, Dalton crumbles under pressure, so facing the league’s worst pass rush gives him a chance.
Ezekiel Elliott has seen more and more snaps go to Tony Pollard, but he has seen at least 18 carries in three of four games, so at $6.6k you can make a solid case for him in this spot. The issue is he is banged up, limited at Thursday’s walkthrough with a calf contusion. “I’m sure it’s gonna be sore during the game,” Elliott said. “I don’t think it will limit me much at all.” He was limited again in Friday’s practice but appears likely to give it a go. The Bengals are 30th in adjusted line yards and RB yards allowed per carry, so if he were held out Pollard would become great chalk.
Amari Cooper is #goodatfootball, and continues to get it done without Dak Prescott. He has four straight and six of seven with double-digit fantasy points, averaging 15.29 fantasy points per game since his injury and 18.6 over his last five games with Dalton. He is down to $6.8k on FD and projected for just 3% ownership, making him a solid play in tournaments as a one-off or along with Dalton.
With Dalton under center, CeeDee Lamb has averaged 8 targets and 5 receptions for 53 yards a game. I would be all in if we saw any red-zone usage, but for two straight weeks, he has been shut out inside the 20, despite Dallas running 18 red-zone plays. Mackensie Alexander has played well this season, but he suffered a knee injury in Thursday’s practice. He is not someone to avoid regardless, but it doesn’t hurt the case for Lamb.
Michael Gallup has the most appeal due to his low price and uptick in usage. It’s rare to find a WR of Gallup’s talent, coming off games of 11 and 8 targets, averaging 8.6 targets in his last five, at only $3.8k. It feels somewhat “point-chasey,” but chasing at $5.3k (FD) and low ownership (3-5%) is much different than doing it at a premium price and high ownership. He has led the team with 5 red-zone targets in their last two and leads the league in routes run. Again, these aren’t stats you associate with a WR under $4k on DK.
Cincinnati has been most vulnerable to the TE, putting Dalton Schultz on the DFS map. He has a snap share above 90% and has been one of the more consistent TEs over his last five games, putting up lines of 6-53-0, 4-48-0, 4-25-1, 5-24-0, 4-44-0.
Bengals
Tee Higgins (hamstring) has been limited and is questionable. Either way, he will be tied to Brandon Allen, who says he is good to go after being forced out of last week’s game and practicing in full. I will update Cincinnati if he is out, but I am not on Higgins or Tyler Boyd, who other than the 72-yard broken-play touchdown last week has caught four of 10 targets from Allen. If Higgins is out, I may reconsider at his sub-$5k price tag, but for now, I am just planning to fade the Bengals passing attack.
A.J. Green is playing full-time snaps, running routes, but has had all his juice squeezed out without Burrow, seeing four targets in two games with Allen. All the WRs are dealing with Allen’s fondness of his TE. Drew Sample has 10 targets from Allen in his two games, hauling in 9 balls for 78 yards.
Giovani Bernard is the most logical play against a Dallas rush D that looked scared to tackle the Ravens last week. I don’t think this Bengals OL can do what the Ravens did to Dallas, but I would not be surprised to see him slide back into low-end RB1 status. Dallas is so embarrassingly bad at stopping the run, allowing 166 rush yards per game and 5 total TDs to backs in their last five. Bernard has outsnapped Samaje Perine 74-17 in their last two losses, so he should be on the field regardless of script.
Core plays: Giovani Bernard, Michael Gallup
GPP only: Amari Cooper (prefer on FD), CeeDee Lamb (prefer on DK), Andy Dalton (stack with a combo of two WRs)
DEN +3.5. O/U: 46.5
DEN: NA | CAR: NA
Pace and playcalling
This game carries COVID-19 concerns, after WR Curtis Samuel, WR D.J. Moore, DT Derrick Brown, DT Zach Kerr, LB Shaq Thompson, OT Greg Little and P Michael Palardy went on the Reserve/COVID-19 list this week (some, including Samuel, have since been activated from the list, which is a positive sign but does not guarantee they’ll play).
Broncos
The Broncos don’t have COVID-19 issues, but they do have a Drew Lock issue. Outside of his 33-fantasy-points game in Atlanta (that we were on), he has been pretty useless, with just one other game with 20 points. Carolina is not a good pass D, can’t rush the passer and plays primarily zone coverage, which accurate QBs (Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, etc.) have ripped apart. It’s hard to see Lock doing the same with the way he has been playing (3 TDs and 7 INTs in his last three games), 39th in catchable pass ranking per Player Profiler. Considering there are only 32 teams, being 39th in any QB efficiency stat isn’t great. He is also 34th in clean and 35th in pressured completion rate.
Melvin Gordon has 15-84-2 and 15-131-0 in his last two starts without a backup TE from the practice squad as his QB. I joke, but we do need to throw out that COVID game against the Saints.
Since Week 9, the Broncos have targeted their backs seven times. That’s the lowest of any team, and the team is 30th overall for the season. In addition to no targets for Gordon, Phillip Lindsay still looms, getting 35-40% of the snaps and 13 carries a game in his last three. I will likely just fade both guys and hope they eat into each other’s production enough to make neither a factor, especially at their low expected ownership.
Jerry Jeudy has been playing banged up, currently dealing with an ankle issue. He practiced Thursday, so should be a go once again.
With our guy Tim Patrick emerging as the WR1 leading in WR snaps and targets, and K.J. Hamler operating in the slot, Jeudy is left in a less than optimal situation tied to an inaccurate QB.
Noah Fant has picked it up since he has dropped off the injury report, but like all the rest he is tied to Lock and in competition with five players for touches on an offense that is 31st in points and yards per drive. Only Cincinnati has fewer red-zone attempts than Denver in the last three weeks.
Panthers
Per the Denver Post’s Kyle Newman, “Panthers coach Matt Rhule says he ‘does not expect’ Christian McCaffrey (tweaked quad) to be ready to play. He didn’t completely rule him out for the game, but his status appears to be a game-time decision at best.”
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I am moving on like McCaffrey is OUT, but this game fits the criteria for a Saturday update. D.J. Moore is expected to be OUT as well because of the COVID rules, and if Samuel is also OUT, Robby Anderson becomes chalk.
Core plays: Samuel, Robby Anderson (check Saturday updates)
GPP only: Mike Davis (check Saturday updates), Tim Patrick
**SAT UPDATE**
Curtis Samuel is ACTIVE, and has a healthy 5.5 rec – 60.5 rec yards prop with DJ Moore OUT. I like Samuel, but seeing that he will be nearly 20% owned, I don’t see me using him in GPPs. He is also not someone I will roll out in CASH, as I would rather use a $3k Berrios/Blake or $3.8k Gallup, so I can squeeze in Adams. In GPPs, the high ownership is not appealing, so unless it is a Teddy-Curtis-Anderson Stack, he won’t be in my lineups. I like Anderson a bit more, but he is in a very similar spot where he won’t crack my cash lineup and is a bit high owned as a one-off in GPPs.
HOU -1.5. O/U: 45.5
HOU: 23 | CHI: 22.5
Pace and playcalling
Houston is 5-1 to the OVER on the road, versus 1-5 at home. Even after getting stunned at home for 34 points by the Lions, the Bears have only allowed 21 PPG in Chicago. That said, this is a team that has allowed 75 points in two weeks to Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers on 7 TD passes.
Chicago did not have All Pro Khalil Mack or cornerback Buster Skrine in practice this week, with Skrine ruled out. Mack being out would be a significant blow to a Bears D that is already just 29th in pressure rate (Chicago has allowed 15 TDS in six games, with at least two in each).
These teams have been pass-heavy — 61% for Houston (fourth neutral) and 66% for Chicago (first). If Houston can get a lead, there will be a lot of pass attempts, with Chicago passing at a 75% rate when down by at least 7.
Houston has accrued the most yards via the pass (76.82%) of any team this season, with 72% of their TDs coming on Watson throws. They have only rushed 20 times per game in their last three (31st), with 7 per game going to Watson.
Texans
Deshaun Watson has had his splits with and without Will Fuller and with and without Bill O’Brien analyzed to death, but one split that stands out to me is his rushing ability. In his first six games, he averaged 18.17 rush yards per game, compared to 37 per game in his last six. He has a floor of 8-24-0 over that span, with a rush TD in two of his last three (31.64 fantasy points per game on DK in his last three). He passed for 341 yards also on 9 YPA against a tough Colts D (9 YPA with Fuller), so at 4% I will be taking a shot on Watson staying hot.
From our dude Derek Brown’s 5 stats to know article:
“Since Week 6 the Chicago Bears rank 31st in explosive pass rate allowed. Over the last seven games, the weak links in this defensive chain have broken, unleashing fantasy goodness for opposing passing attacks. Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine have been dreadful. These two have allowed a 73.6% catch rate (76 targets), eight receiving touchdowns and passer ratings of 129.6 and 139.1. Chicago plays sides with their corners, so picking on these reception turnstiles isn’t difficult for offensive coordinators. Kyle Fuller is the Bears’ starting LCB. He’s only played two snaps at RCB all season. Even with a depleted receiving depth chart, Deshaun Watson should feast this week.”
David Johnson landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list late in the week, ruling him out for this game. We have been off “Team Johnson & Johnson” all season (the Texans are 31st in adjusted line yards and RB yards per carry this season), and I see no reason for that to change against the Bears (11th in running back yards per carry allowed). With David out, Duke Johnson will be in line for another 75-90% snap share.
C.J. Prosise missed last week’s game as he was hospitalized with a non-COVID-related stomach illness; he and UDFA Buddy Powell are all that remain on the roster after Duke, which means it will be a big Watson day.
Brandin Cooks had a concussion scare and has been limited with a foot and neck injury. He has a long history of injury, so I am putting him in GPP-only status.
Keke Coutee was huge last week, catching 8-of-9 targets for a career-high 141 yards. I have always liked Coutee, so this is no surprise; he simply landed in Bill O’Brien’s doghouse and was never able to get on the field consistently. Coutee balled out in his final year at Texas Tech, which seems like a long time ago, but it was 2017. He saw 121 targets and posted 93-1429-10 in 13 games on 15.4 yards per reception. Skrine would be the guy to attack in this defense if he were active, and him being ruled OUT cements Coutee as having the best matchup on the week. He ran 41 routes last week, a number Will Fuller hit only three times this season, which means he lined up outside for 11 routes (70% slot). Jordan Akins played the second-most snaps as a slot receiver, with 72% (26 snaps). Coutee secured seven of his eight receptions as a slot WR, while Akins only one of his three targets.
There was uncertainty on who the other outside WR would be, with both Steven Mitchell and Isaiah Coulter in the mix, but it was Chad Hansen who stepped in and played 92% of snaps, catching 5-of-7 targets for 101 yards. Yes, it was one week, but he is cheap and can be put in as a flex or WR3 on a Watson stack. 92% snap share and 7 targets does not leave much for interpretation — he operated as the Will Fuller for the offense. He has decent size and quickness, and also was a big-time producer in his final year in college, so there is no reason to think he can’t be serviceable in this role, tied to a red-hot Watson.
Final thought is on Akins, who flipped below $3k after another disappointing performance as a relatively popular DFS play. Everyone is jumping ship this week, which is actually the best matchup he has had. Chicago is fourth in fantasy points allowed to TEs, with 6 TDs to TEs in their last six games. Now that he is projected for 3-5% ownership, I will be hopping on Akins in a Watson stack or even as a one-off if you need a punt TE.
Bears
Mitchell Trubisky runs into another great home matchup, though the status of rookie WR Darnell Mooney is unknown when writing this. I know Trubisky looked better last week, and can post 20 fantasy points from time to time, but he has five fumbles (one lost) and 2 INTs in two games, so this is still the Trubisky we know. The Bears are like the Texans, with more than 70% of their scores coming via the pass. However, over their last three games that number is 50%, with David Montgomery seeing 10 red-zone touches in his last two games.
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Montgomery was that good chalk last week, finishing as the RB1 on 111 total yards and two TDs. He has had a dream schedule with the Lions, Packers and now Texans (32nd, 31st, 30th in fantasy points per game allowed, respectively), with the Texans sitting dead last in RB YPC allowed (5.19). He ran 32 and 37 routes over his last two, so if this turns into a shootout, he should be able to produce as a pass-catcher (4.5-39.5-0.5 TDs per game as a receiver in his last two). It is schedule driven, but Montgomery is averaging 17.57 fantasy points per game in six games with Trubisky on 15.33-75.83 per game and 5.18 YPC (12.88 fantasy points per game with Nick Foles on 2.84 YPC).
Allen Robinson is playing through a knee injury and managed just 75 yards on 6 catches against Detroit, but I am not worried about him, just a week off of 8-74-2 on 13 targets. Robinson is not moving inside as he did to start the season, playing fewer slot snaps than Cole Kmet, Jimmy Graham and Anthony Miller slot. That means he will have less opportunity with the higher-efficiency slot routes, versus being on an island on the outside and needing Trubisky to make quality throws. That said, if there is ever a week for him to hit his ceiling, this would be it against our ole’ pal, Vernon Hargreaves. Hargreaves allows 2.0 fantasy points per target, which is the number that gets my attention. Other CBs that have allowed 2-plus points per target in coverage this season include A.J. Terrell, Kevin King, Kendall Fuller, Holton Hill and Darius Phillips.
Kmet has taken over for Graham, playing 70%, 79% and 78% of the snaps the past three weeks, playing in the slot for 13.3 snaps per game. Last week was his high mark for targets (7), and he has run 33 routes in consecutive games after averaging 8 routes in his first nine games. He had plays designed around him being the primary target, both from the slot and a play-action misdirection that allowed Kmet to sneak out undetected for a 10-yard TD catch and run.
Miller has also emerged and could see a usage bump if Mooney sits. He came on late last season with Trubisky, who has targeted Miller five times a game since getting the gig back. I would need Mooney to be out to play Miller.
Per RotoWorld, Mooney was unavailable to practice at all throughout the week but Nagy wouldn’t go into details; he would only state that he “thinks” the rookie will be available on Sunday.
Core plays: David Montgomery, Deshaun Watson, Keke Coutee
GPP only: Allen Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Cole Kmet, Jordan Akins
KC -7. O/U: 49.5
KC: 28.5 | MIA: 20.5
Pace and playcalling
These are two top-six defensive teams by points per game allowed, with Miami second at 17.7. I am still not convinced this is a defense to shy away from when it comes to high-end offenses, though. Miami has played the Patriots, Jets (twice), 49ers, Broncos, Bengals and Jaguars — all in the bottom of the barrel in offensive ranks — and have dominated. But they allowed 31 to each of the Cardinals, Bills and Seahawks.
Kansas City has gone pass-heavy, 65% in neutral script (last five games), second behind only Pittsburgh.
Miami has also passed at a 62% rate in their last five and 65% last week against Cincinnati, so they have not changed their pass/run splits with the rookie.
As our NFL Splits tool illustrates, they have seen a drop-off with Tua Tagovailoa, which is pretty obvious to the eye-test also.
Chiefs
I was hoping people would jump off Patrick Mahomes against a perceived “tough matchup,” especially after a game that felt like his floor (20 fantasy points in Week 13). But he is projected to be the highest-owned QB, so I am not alone in thinking 300-plus yards and 2-3 TD passes are incoming. Still, it’s a modest 12%, which is not enough to fade for ownership. He is neck and neck with Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson as the top options on the slate.
Tyreek Hill has run 68 of his 210 snaps from the slot (last-3), the most of any KC player. That puts him in a great spot against slot CB Nik Needham, who ran a 4.72 40-yard dash. Miami is top-10 in slot targets, yards, and fantasy points allowed. I am also not worried about him against either Miami outside CB — he just has too much speed and talent, which, combined with Mahomes, makes “tough CB matchups” irrelevant for Hill.
Sammy Watkins can also be used on your Mahomes stacks. He has played 42 snaps in the slot in his two games since returning from injury, putting up nearly identical lines (4-35-0 and 4-37-0). All the matchup points apply to him as they do with Hill; I prefer him on FD.
Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman are still in the mix, but Robinson has kept his 70% snap share as the “other” outside WR. With Hill and Travis Kelce being so dominant, all these guys are fringe plays for multi-entry players.
Kelce has been insane, and I don’t think it is as talked about as it should be. His last five games have been as good as I can remember from a TE.
- 8-109-1
- 10-159-0
- 8-127-1
- 8-82-0
- 8-136-1
Like Mahomes, I see no reason to look at DvP and TE production when it comes to Kelce. If he averages 11 targets per game, he is going to produce (2.18 FP per target).
Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa should get a positive script to keep him passing (26-of-39 for 296 yards and a TD against the Bengals). There isn’t anything terrible about his underlying statistics; he has been solid under pressure and has been fairly accurate. He hasn’t been good on deep passes or in the red zone, and it appears Miami prefers to run it in, giving Myles Gaskin 7 red-zone touches versus 6 for Tua. I am not a Tua guy yet, maybe with time, but I am more interested in the KC defense in this spot than I am the Miami passing game.
Myles Gaskin handled 23 touches for 141 yards (2-51-0 on two targets) against the Bengals. If Miami keeps this close, Gaskin is going to get fed 20-plus times once again (he has at least 21 touches in each of his last five games). The way to attack Kansas City is on the ground. The problem is, Mahomes doesn’t allow teams to stick with it in most cases. DeAndre Washington should be active, but Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida are out. Chiefs are allowing 150.1 total yards to RBs.
DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki are the only players to be considered as runbacks, with Gesicki being my preference against a KC defense that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the tight end position. It feels like chasing, but Gesicki saw 11 targets (9-88-1) and will run his routes in KC’s more vulnerable sections of the field.
Core plays: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Washington, Patrick Mahomes
GPP only: Sammy Watkins, Mike Gesicki
**UPDATE**
As you have heard by now, Gaskin is on the COVID list. That sets up $4k D. Washington as good chalk, for all the reasons it was for Gaskin. They are essentially the same size, though Washington actually has a better overall athletic profile. He has been a legit fringe RB1 in 7 career games with 30+ snaps and that gets even better at 40 snaps. He is more known for his pass-catching abilities, which should keep him in play regardless of the script. He will be in the Sunday AM core.
NYJ +13.5. O/U: 46.5
NYJ: 16.5 | SEA: 30.5
Jets
I’m fading the Jets — I don’t think it is necessary to try and nail the one (if there is one) WR that has a serviceable game in your Seattle stacks.
*Saturday Update*
Major update here for our Hawks stacks. Denzel Mims is OUT, J. Crowder (calf) was unable to practice Friday, after being limited on THURS. That is never a good sign with a veteran that has already missed four games.
Breshard Perriman (shoulder) was limited but has a clean designation and a $3.9k price tag on DK. If Crowder is OUT, I will be sticking him into my SEA stacks. With he and Gallup, Mike Williams all being cheap on in good spots, you can make some good looking stacks with high priced teams like SEA and KC.
If Crowder misses, Braxton Berrios also becomes a viable punt WR3/Flex.
https://twitter.com/MagicSportsGuy/status/1337960064733171714?s=20
Seahawks
“Last week, the Jets surrendered 381 passing yards to Derek Carr as Darren Waller lit them up for over 200 and led the league in receiving last week. Waller is a size-and-speed freak the Jets had no answers for, and now they get DK Metcalf. Gulp. Metcalf leads the NFL in receiving yards and completed air yards while seeing the third-most deep targets and second-most air yards in the league. The Jets cannot cover a deep ball to save their life (see the final 10 seconds of the Raiders game) and run out the least athletic trio of corners in football, all of whom run a 4.58 or slower 40. They currently rank 32nd in DVOA against the pass and are the fourth-worst team covering the deep ball. The Jets have allowed -171 expected points contributed by the pass defense this year, far and away the worst mark in football. Metcalf should be fed over and over in this one and has seen increased usage in the offense as his 21 targets the last two games is the most in any two-game stretch this season. He is going to get the volume against the Jets, and there is not a damn thing they are going to be able to do to stop him.”
Russell Wilson runs into the ultimate get-well matchup with the Jets, who come in with the 32nd pass DVOA, allowing the most FP to QBs over their last three games after getting blasted for 300+ passing yards for the 6th time this season. SEA was on pace to set a record in passing yards allowed but after their recent improvement and the Jets giving up yards at such a rapid pace, it looks like the Jets may actually pass SEA by season’s end. RW3’s downturn can be attributed to a couple of factors, for one, the Rams dominated him and the Hawks. The other is the defense is playing better, so there has not been the need for “Chef Russ”. Over his last three games, SEA is passing at a 57% neutral pass rate (15th), compared to 62% in his first nine games (3rd). He hasn’t been over 263 yards in 5 of six games and has 1 or fewer TD passes in 3 of 5. After a bad loss to the Giants in SEA, logically, you would expect them to unleash Russ, Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett hear to get this offense back on track before they have a tough three-game stretch with three superior defenses/teams in WASH-LAR-SF. He is expensive, but he is also going to be lower owned than Mahomes and Rodgers, despite playing the Jets.
Chris Carson got back to a more normal workload, seeing 16 touches for 110 total yards and a receiving score. Carson now has four receiving touchdowns on the season on 4.1 targets per game, up from 3.1 last season. The extra target has led to 3.5-26 per game through the air, which combined with his 18.5 carries per game make him one of the more bankable assets in football when healthy. I have outlined the Jets actually being good against the run many times so will save you the long speech, but they are more victimized by the bad offense and turnovers/bad field position. That scenario can easily unfold here if the Hawks get up big early, making him a solid play in GPPs, I think he correlates well with the SEA defense more than most games, as their play will likely dictate how active Carson is.
D.K. Metcalf should get off here, 100-yards and a TD incoming. The only issue is deciding better him, Adams, and Tyreek, who also have attractive matchups. They are big enough, fast enough, or talented enough to have any shot slowing him down if Russ decides to look his way, which I assume he will. Like all high-priced WRs that will be popular, there is merit to fade, if they fail to score, the script gets out of hand and the team stops passing could make his $8.5k tag seem painful. I just can’t see all 3 “big dogs” (Adams – Hill – DK) failing in their situations, maybe one, but expecting two or three is being unrealistic. I have them Adams – DK – Hill, but I would make sure to get one of the three in most lineups.
Tyler Lockett had a concussion scare last week but was cleared and returned. He has been trending right along with Russ and will likely go off here at lower ownership and price. If I am playing just one, I will go with the consensus and pick DK, but I am just going to stack them both and hope Russ reverts back to week 3, where the two WRs combined for 220 yards and 4 TD passes on 13 catches.
Core plays: DK Metcalf, Chris Carson, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett
GPP only: Seattle DST
ATL -2.5. O/U: 48.5
ATL: 25 | LAC: 23.5
Pace and Play-Calling
Coming off of 17 and NO points in their last two, LAC is not the slam dunk we thought they were with Justin Herbert at QB. We need to put that aside and jump back on with ATL coming to town.
This game is getting bet up aggressively to the OVER. It makes sense, with LAC running the most and ATL the third-most plays per game. ATL continues to entice their opponents to attack their weakest link by being good against the run (3.89 adjusted, 3.73 RB yards allowed p/g). LAC has the 26th run-blocking offensive line, so I am hoping Anthony Lynn doesn’t fuck this up. He and his staff are the biggest hurdles to this game shooting out.
Falcons
Matt Ryan’s splits without Julio Jones have been widely broadcasted, so I will save you from them again. I don’t know why taking a hall of fame WR off the field negatively affecting on offense is surprising, Julio is #GoodFootball. LAC is a strange matchup for QBs, they have held their last seven QBs under 248 passing yards, but have allowed 14 passing and 4 rush TDs during that stretch. He should get 250 yards, toss a TD or two, but it may not be pretty. Over his last three games, Ryan has completed 52.17% of his passes, which is only better than Denver, who played one of their last three with a backup TE under center. LAC is 9th in completion rate allowed and 4th in YPA allowed. Again, a strange D to handicap.
Falcons guard James Carpenter (groin) & RT Kaleb McGary are out for Week 14 against the Chargers. That is bad news for Ryan, with Joey Bosa lining up on the left end. Ryan crumbles under pressure, 37.6% completion rate under pressure versus 74.7% clean.
Todd Gurley came back to play a season-low 33% of snaps. Ito Smith played 36% and Brian Hill relegated to RB3 status. LAC is a better matchup for backs, and ATL has wanted to run more this season, and have averaged 59 + yards more p/g in Julio’s injury games.
Calvin Ridley has been correlated to Ryan’s struggles, but he is a solid play with Julio out. That said, I would rather pay more for DK, Adams, and Tyreek.
Chargers
“Justin Herbert was awful last week in a bad matchup, but the volume continues to be there, as he has thrown over 40 attempts all but once since Week 7. Now he takes on a Falcons team that is a surprising pass funnel, as they have the sixth-fewest rush attempts against per game this season, while seeing the ninth-most passing attempts against. The Falcons are allowing the sixth-most expected points to passing defenses this year, the fourth-most adjusted passing yards per attempt, the fifth-most yards per completion and the third-most passing yards per game. The last time Herbert had a matchup similar to this one was against the Jets, and he lit them up for 366 yards and three passing touchdowns. While Herbert has been great this year, there is room to improve, specifically in the red zone, where he ranks 36th in red-zone completion percentage. If he is able to get better in this area even slightly, he could be in for a massive scoring day.”
Justin Herbert got hit with the Bill Belichick voodoo last week, holding the rookie to an ugly 3.9 YPA and no points. Quite a world we live in when ATL can travel west and be a 2.5 point favorite, but here we are. ATL will be without starting safety Ricardo Allen, leaving them with a UDFA from Javi’s alma mater to play safety against Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and favorite play from this game, Mike Williams.
Ekeler only saw 12 touches, in a loss, mostly due to Kalen Ballage (10 touches) being back after missing a week. Again, how are we talking about this, Ballage taking snaps from Ekeler, but this is a crazy world. ATL started the season getting killed by RB passes but have tightened things up dramatically, allowing just 20 catches in 7 games to backs.
Keenan Allen is in a great spot, but like I said both weeks since Ekeler has been back, the insane usage he was getting was while Ek was out and Willimas was banged up. I would prefer his price to adjust back down to the $6.5k range on DK, or someone is OUT before going back to Allen in cash or single entry.
I would rather take a shot on Mike Williams at his low price and hope to land on the 4-75-2 game that we know he can produce. ATL has allowed 49 receptions of 20+ yards (the most) and 24 passing TDs (4th most)
Core plays: Calvin Ridley, Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Christian Blake
GPP only: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Matt Ryan, Hayden Hurst
IND -3. O/U: 51.5
IND: 27.5 | LV: 24.5
Colts
“In Weeks 11-13, among 68 running backs with 10-plus carries, Jonathan Taylor ranks 14th in yards after contact per attempt (3.37).
“The light has seemingly come on for Taylor during his last two games. Taylor is exhibiting the elusiveness and tackle-breaking ability that his physical acumen has suggested all along. Over that three-game span, he ranks immediately ahead of Chris Carson, Alvin Kamara and James Robinson in this metric. Yes, this is an extremely small sample, but the vast difference for Taylor needs to be noted as well. In Weeks 1-10, among 100 running backs with at least 10 rushing attempts, Taylor ranked 85th in yards after contact per attempt (2.12). Taylor rediscovering his ability to maul would be tacklers could not have come at a better time. The Raiders rank second in missed tackles allowed (102), with only the dumpster-fire Jets having a more difficult time bringing down the opposition. Taylor has a monstrous ceiling game in his range of outcomes this week.”
Philip Rivers has become somewhat useful recently, with 4-straight with 18.8 FP or more on DK. He has also reached an acceptable ceiling at his price point, passing for 371 yards and TDs on 8.4 YPA against CINN. WIth LV struggling in pass rush, coverage, and run D (yes, that’s everything), I could see Rivers landing in another QB1 game (4, top-10 finishes).
More on Taylor, yes, the signs are there, 26 touches for 114 yards and 16 touches for 135 yards over his past two games with the underlying statistics turning positive. The matchup is all you can ask for, 28 th in adjusted line yards allowed (4.76 p/c), and 30th in open field yards allowed (19 rush TDs allowed, 2nd most). I know we have been burned on INDY RB usage before, but there is enough up side for me to take on that risk at under 10% (LV allowed the JETS 190 total RB yards and a TD last week).
Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins will get their 10-15 touches, we just need to hope that is all they get and the madness of Hines getting goal-line work ends.
T.Y. Hilton just needs to see those Texans’ uniforms to break out of a season-long slump, busting out an 8-110-1 line on 11 targets against HOU. Trayvon Mullen has been better lately, but neither he nor Nevin Lawson are anything to worry about. Michael Pittman has been most affected by Hilton’s emergence, posting seven catches for 74 yards the past two weeks. Rivers likes to spread it around, using his backs (4th) and TEs at high rates (7th), that combined with 29 rush attempts p/g will make these guys volatile.
Zach Pascal continues to absorb the slot snaps, 79 in his last three with Trey Burton next at 32. Mo Alie-Cox emerged a bit last week playing 64% and getting 5 targets, with Burton appearing to be the favorite in the RZ. Unlike the RB situation, I am not ready to commit to a pass catcher, not on a 13-game slate.
Raiders
Josh Jacobs is dealing with a high ankle sprain, but is expected to be available to play, that said, they have not confirmed that when writing this on SAT afternoon. I think he goes, but I also don’t think he is getting 20+ touches, Booker will be in the mix. Jacobs is also highly susceptible to game script still, getting more than 10 touches per game in Raiders WINS, per our splits tool. All that combined with a negative matchup against the Colts front seven has me off Jacobs and the running game.
Darren Waller is coming off a career game, yet is still projected to be a low-owned play with everyone paying up at WR and for Kelce. INDY has been a tough spot for TEs this season, and you would assume their defense will be geared around not letting him go ballistic again. He is still my favorite Raiders play, but after making about 10 LUs, I have not landed on a Raiders player yet. The same goes for Derrick Carr, Nelson Agholor, and Henry Ruggs, they will have their moments in matchups like last week, but this is not one of those.
Full breakdown to be added Saturday.
Core plays: Jonathan Taylor, Darren Waller
GPP only: Michael Pittman, T.Y. Hilton, Philip Rivers
TEN -7.5. O/U: 52.5
TEN: 31 | JAX: 21.5
Pace and playcalling
Tennessee continues to end up in slate-breaking games, with them averaging 29.9 PPG (third), 36.7 in their last three (first). They allow 27.2 PPG this season and 30.3 in their last three, after getting throttled by the Browns last week. They still run at the fourth-highest rate, which is strange for a team whose games are averaging the most combined PPG this season.
The Jaguars match Tennessee on defense, allowing 29.3 PPG (fourth-most), but have only managed 20.9 PPG (27th).
We will need Jacksonville to hang around, even get a lead to get us into a game like last week with Cleveland. If not, Tennessee will shut the passing game down and hand it to Derrick Henry (36% pass rate when up by at least 7).
Titans
Ryan Tannehill keeps landing in good gamescripts, so keeps producing as one of the most efficient QBs in the game, now over a 24-game span. His afternoon rolls back to the pace section — if Jacksonville can score, Tannehill will rip apart a secondary that has allowed a 69.2% completion rate (31st) and 8 YPA (32nd). Even without a shootout, we could easily get a 200-yard, 3-TD performance, with Jacksonville allowing the fourth-most fantasy points on 2.2 TD passes per game (tied for 32nd with Tennessee and Dallas).
A.J. Brown and Corey Davis should rip apart this secondary, with both C.J. Henderson and D.J. Hayden on injured reserve. Sidney Jones has also missed the past three games. He’s on track to return, but neither he nor Tre Herndon or Josiah Scott has any shot against the two big Tennessee receivers. I outlined the insane list of ceiling games this defense has allowed to WRs last week, and that was extended, with both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson putting up big games. Davis has been the big story for the Titans, basically becoming the more consistent WR1, with more targets, catches and yards than Brown.
Derrick Henry showed he can still get taken out of the game if it gets out of hand. Tennessee was trailing 38-3 at halftime last week, which was all she wrote for Henry, who got a season-low 16 touches for 69 total yards. Henry is in a classic bounceback spot and is a lock for 100 and at least 1 TD.
Jaguars
Starting CBs Adoree’ Jackson (who has yet to play this season) and Breon Borders are both OUT. That leaves Malcolm Butler, Desmond King and a big question mark to cover D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, Collin Johnson and Keelan Cole.
With Johnson emerging alongside Mike Glennon, TE Tyler Eifert healthy, and James Robinson being such a usage monster, this is a very crowded situation tied to a very shaky QB.
Robinson made it into the cash core again last week and he rewarded us with 24 touches for 108 total yards and a TD. He has back-to-back games with 6 targets to go along with 20 carries. The Titans can’t rush the passer, can’t cover anyone (30th pass DVOA) and are league average against the run, so I expect Robinson to get his 22-24 touches again for at least 100 total yards and likely a TD (Tennessee has allowed 26.2 fantasy points per game to RBs this season on 17 TDs).
Core plays: James Robinson, Derrick Henry
GPP only: Ryan Tannehill/A.J. Brown/Corey Davis stack
MIN +6.5. O/U: 51.5
MIN: 22 | TB: 30
Vikings
Justin Jefferson is my preferred run-back on my Brady teams with Jamel Dean ruled out. The way he is playing, I am not sure what Dean would have done anyway. That said, JJ and Thielen should both be able to move around enough to get in from of our guy (to target) Sean Murphy Bunting, with old man Ross Cockrell moving into the slot on 3-WR sets. This is assuming Carlton Davis (who last we saw was getting TORCHED by Tyreek) will be shadowing Adam Thielen. Davis has been playing primary coverage on other team’s #1 WRs, I just don’t know how you can make the case that isn’t JJ right now. Per ESPN, no rookie WR has ever scored this many FP since another Vikings WR, Randy Moss. WIth TB being so good against the run, and likely scoring 30 points, we should get another perfect script for JJ to do his thing.
Kyle Rudolph is OUT, and Irv Smith is back, giving us yet another solid TE punt option to go with Akins, Kmet, Thomas. Slot WR Chad Beebe is also OUT, which could lead to more slot snaps for Smith (4th most slot snaps this season for MIN), with Tyler Conkin and Brandon Dillon playing the traditional blocking TE role. MINN could also put Olabisi Johnson outside and roll either JJ or Thielen inside. Jefferson would be most likely, having played the most slot snaps still, accumulated mostly at the beginning of the season.
I like Dalvin Cook to produce in the passing game again but at his extreme price, that just isn’t enough. TB has just wiped out opposing backs, so unless he gets a couple of 1-yard TD runs (he absolutely could) and does work in the passing attack, I can’t see him paying off his number. If you are game stacking, running him back to Brady is logical, and there is enough value on the board to do it, it just isn’t a team I would build if I were playing the 3-Max.
Buccaneers
Mike Evans missed Thursday’s practice with a hamstring issue. I love his matchup for Evans and all the Buc’s pass catchers, but missing practice after a bye-week is concerning for a WR that is also in a VERY crowded situation. The thing Evans has working for him, and a case to still treat him as the #1 connection with Tom Brady. His 14 EZ targets are second to only Adams, with Evans converting 9 for TDs. He has lined up inside 45 times in his last two, second to Chris Godwin’s 80 slot snaps and has scored three times on 27 slot targets.
Chris Godwin had pins removed from his broken finger early in the week, so should be feeling better after logging two full practices. Pins or no pins. Godwin has been emerging prior to their bye, stringing together games with 6-92-0, 7-53-1, and 8-97-0. Minnesota is 7th in slot FP allied, allowing over 2 FP per target (31st).
Cam Brate is OUT, so is MIN LB, Eric Kendricks. That puts Rob Gronkowski (6-106-0 on week 12) on my radar, as my third favorite option to stack with Brady.
Ronald Jones has been all over the map, 103, 24, and 198 total yards in his last three. He has been out-targeted 10-5 by Lenny Fournette, so can get scripted out if this is a shootout or MIN gets a lead. The other side of Jones is him smashing this overrated MINN front seven that is without the MLB. He has the home favorite factor working for him, and could end up as the TB player to own if the game goes that way. The other option you could do is what I suggested in the CAR game, roll out old man Tom naked in terms of receivers, and stack him with Jones. If the thought is TB puts up 40-45 points, having 45-50 FP from your QB and RB2 will serve you just fine. The correlation argument makes a lot of sense with a QB like Cousins, there is simply NO WAY he wins a GPP without Thielen and/or JJ going off in the process. IN TB, Brady can win a GPP by hitting any of these receivers for 2-3 scores, leaving at least 2 (maybe 3) of the other TB players not reaching their projection. I also think you can play Jones with the TB D, as Cousins can turn it over (Minn, 7th most FP allowed to DST).
More on the Jones matchup, MINN is actually 29th in adjusted line yards allowed after giving up 18-78-1 to James Robinson on the ground last week. TB has a good OL, that could do some damage with Hendricks out, they are 8th in RB yards per carry, 1st in power success, and 3rd in open field yards.
Core plays: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson
GPP only: Jones, Kirk Cousins/Adam Thielen/JJ, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski
GB -7.5. O/U: 55.5
GB: 32.5 | DET: 23.5
Pace and playcalling
This is one of the bigger totals on the slate in what appears to be a late-slate hammer game, with Detroit allowing 34 PPG at home, against GB, who scores the most points per game (31.6). The Lions have been terrible in Detroit, losing four of five games (1-4 ATS, 5-0 to the OVER at home).
Detroit allows 3.8 TDs per game, trailing only Dallas. Green Bay is first with 4 TDs per game and first in their last three games (4.7 TDs p/g)
Packers
The Packers are the highest-scoring team and also one of the easiest for DFS. Aaron Rodgers is in peak 2016 form, averaging 26.82 FPPG in his last seven games (287 yards and 3.29 TDs). He targets one guy (Davante Adams) at such a high rate (46.8% red-zone target share is laughable) that you don’t need to go much further when you want to stack GB.
Aaron Jones is next on the list for stacking, not as much for the receiving work as to buy all the GB TDs and yards. He had his one slate-breaker game against Detroit, which is the only reason why Rodgers didn’t reach 20 fantasy points. Either way, the Rodgers/Jones stack worked out very well in that situation.
Robert Tonyan has emerged as Option 3 and will get another game with Jace Sternberger OUT. He is on a three-game streak with at least 4 catches, 39 receiving yards and a TD. Rodgers is incredibly efficient when targeting the big TE, with Rodgers registering a 150.3 passer rating throwing his way, first among all TEs. Tonyan is also first in fantasy points per target (2.95), thanks to 8 TD catches (first).
Lions
The Lions played fast last week in their first game without Matt Patricia and passed at 64% rate. Matthew Stafford aired it out, passing for 42 times and 402 passing yards. He racked up 526 air yards, nearly 150 more than his previous season-high (9.6 YPA, also a season-high). His 30.1 fantasy points was his season-high, and now he should get a great gamescript again. Stafford stayed at $5.7k, making him one of the better-value QB plays on the slate. He tightened up his home/road splits last week with the monster game, but still has been better at home (21.6 fantasy points per game at home, 16.9 away).The Packers have a reputation for a good pass D, but they have been exposed throughout the season and are now 18th in pass DVOA. They have allowed at least 2 TD passes in seven games this season, only preventing QBs like Jake Luton, Carson Wentz/Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins (in bad weather) and Nick Mullens from throwing multiple touchdown passes.
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T.J. Hockenson has officially broken out, posting 68, 89 and 84 yards in his last three games on 8 targets per game. I would still like to see more, but seeing him surpass his career-high in routes run in consecutive weeks is very encouraging. His 135 air yards were also double his previous season-high, so I am expecting another 4- to 5-catch games with 50-60 yards. He got his first red-zone target last week after a three-game stretch, which also needs to increase with Kenny Golladay still out.
Marvin Jones has come on recently, seeing 12 targets in consecutive games. Just like Stafford and Hockenson, Jones obliterated his air yards high for the season, with 212 (8-116-0). Air yards are not an end-all, but when we have been clamoring for Stafford to air it out as he did in 2019, you can’t help but notice the deep targets. Jones will run into Jaire Alexander, who limited Jones to 4-of-6 targets for 23 yards and a garbage-time touchdown.
D’Andre Swift is still questionable when writing this, so I will update the RB situation for him, Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson later Saturday.
Core plays: Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, T.J. Hockenson
GPP only: Swift, Marvin Jones, Matthew Stafford, Robert Tonyan, Lazard
**UPDATE**
DeAndre Swift is BACK. I am happy they were so conservative with his “brain injury”, and I am assuming he is good to go here or wouldn’t have gotten the clearance. This is a juicy matchup for Swift, who gets to take advantage of the poor GB rush D (3rd most FP allowed to RBs), while also being script proof. Sure, AD can still take some carries and (god forbid) a TD, but I am willing to bet on Swift’s upside in this game that is protected to shoot out.
NO -7. O/U: 44.5
NO: NA | PHI: NA
Pace and playcalling
New Orleans does a good job limiting opponent’s plays, ranking first at 59.5 per game. Philly, not so much, allowing the sixth-most plays per game.
This game is a major mismatch when looking at, well, everything. New Orleans is fifth in scoring and fourth in points allowed, sixth in points and yards allowed per drive. Philadelphia is 30th in both of those stats, 26th in scoring.
Usually a pass funnel, the Eagles have flip-flopped due to their anemic offense, seeing the second-highest rush rate against this season.
New Orleans has gone to a 50/50 pass/run ratio with Taysom Hill at quarterback and takes it even further when leading by at least 7 (30% pass rate). The Saints also play very slow under Hill, 32nd overall in pace.
Saints
Hill has done what we expected — for fantasy/DFS, he is a cheat code. He has put together three solid starts, with two big games at home and then the weird game in Denver that I think we should throw out for research purposes. He has been a beast on the ground, with 34 carries for 188 yards and four rushing TDs in his three starts. Philadelphia has struggled against rushing QBs, allowing 108 to Lamar Jackson, 92 and 64 to Daniel Jones (which would have been more if the turf monster didn’t tackle him). Hill also flashed passing skills last week, tossing 2 TD passes at home on 232 yards. Philadelphia has the propensity to allow big rushing plays, second in 20-yard runs and first in 40-yard runs, which sets up very well for HillHiHiHill. Philadelphia has allowed 17 rush TDs as well, tied for third-most, putting Hill back into our top-five at the position.
Alvin Kamara can benefit from Philly giving up the home run ball as well. His price is dropping to a more reasonable level, but still not far enough for an optimal or cash lineup. He has been neutered by the return of Michael Thomas and injury to Drew Brees, catching just three passes in Hill’s three starts. The receptions are what made him so great for DFS, so without them you are left needing a TD like any normal RB. For multi-entry GPP players, I think you can get a little exposure (5%) due to the Eagles’ allowing these home runs and his 5% projected ownership.
Thomas has mirrored Hill — two big games when Hill passed for 232 and 233 yards and a 4-50-0 line on six targets in Denver. We need to keep in mind those two big games also came against the Atlanta secondary, which remains 32nd in points allowed to WRs. Darius Slay should get tapped to shadow Thomas around for most of his snaps, which makes a brutal three-game stretch for him against DK Metcalf, Davante Adams and now Thomas.
Eagles
Jalen Hurts will get the start and I don’t want much to do with it, other than using it as an excuse to smash the Saints DST. If it were another matchup, I would be interested in the rushing upside, but the Saints have been playing very well on defense, moving into second in rush and pass DVOA and that, combined with a top-five pass rush, does not set up well for the rookie. Like Wentz, Hurts and all these players are dragged down by a dreadful offensive line (32nd adjusted sack rate). New Orleans is now first in adjusted sack rate, which is the perfect (shit) storm if you are Hurts in your first career start.
Miles Sanders did not see one of Hurts’ targets last week, and seems to have landed in the doghouse, playing just 56% of snaps with Jordan Howard and Boston Scott taking the other RB snaps. New Orleans has been brutal against RBs, not allowing any volume or yards (second-fewest), with just 26% of yards against them coming from the rush. (Saints nose tackle Malcom Brown is OUT.)
CB Patrick Robinson has been ruled out, but Janoris Jenkins will return. Either way, I want no part of these receivers. Greg Ward would get the bump in the slot against P.J. Williams; Ward saw a team-high four targets once Hurts took over.
Right down the line, as much as Wentz sucked, it’s hard to call him moving to the bench anything but a downgrade for all the pass catchers, including the TEs. Zach Ertz played 44% of the snaps last week and hauled in 2-of-4 targets for 31 yards.
Dallas Goedert is the alpha in this offense now, but again, we can’t trust him like we could with Wentz, as crazy as that may sound. With Alshon Jeffery back and Travis Fulgham still playing 40% of the team snaps, there are a lot of players in the mix with a guy who has a 200-yard passing prop.
Core plays: Taysom Hill, New Orleans DST
GPP only: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara
WAS +3.5. O/U: 43.5
WAS: NA | SF: NA
Pace and playcalling
One of the lower totals on the slate with a lot of money flowing to the UNDER. This feels like one of those afternoon games you fade and hope for a 16-9 field goal fest. That said, there are a few one-offs to consider.
Football Team
Alex Smith has a ceiling of 16 fantasy points now in four starts. I realize the 49ers got lit up by Josh Allen and the Bills, but they are not the matchup that is finally going to jettison Smith into QB1 status. If anything, we want to target the San Francsico DST against Smith.
With Antonio Gibson OUT. Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic will handle the backfield duties. Unlike some teams, we have seen these guys quite a bit this season even with Gibson healthy, with Barber getting 19 carries in Weeks 11 and 12 with Gibson leading the way with 36. If Washington controls the game, there is no way around Barber getting double-digit carries. He averaged 11.5 in their four wins while Gibson was active and got another 14 last week after the injury. He is basically Jordan Howard or Adrian Peterson — he could churn out 50 yards and a TD or dare I say, two. The other side of Barber is a brutal, 10-carry, 25-yard, no-score performance that leaves you pounding your head against the wall asking how the hell you played Peyton Barber on a 13-game slate. He is $4.6k on FD, where you are playing for the TDs, so I don’t hate it if you need a punt flex to squeeze in a high-priced stack.
McKissic is interesting on DK, with Washington targeting RBs at a 31.3% rate (last three) and 29.5% on the season (second). Like Barber, he was already a “thing” before Gibson was injured. Of course, he thrives in losses or neutral-script games, and disappears in games they control. He has topped out at 8 carries this season and should get at least that here.
Terry McLaurin showed he was human last week, finally getting slowed down after a six-game streak of 13-plus fantasy points. The linemakers are expecting a big bounceback from McLaurin, setting his receiving prop (normally 5.5) at 6.5-74.5 on FanDuel. He has played 31 snaps from the slot in his last two games and will see more Jason Verrett than Richard Sherman when he is outside. The only complaint I have is 3 red-zone targets in his last five games — he could get a bump with Gibson out, but last week it didn’t.
Logan Thomas played 85.4% of snaps from the slot last week and a team-high 70% in his last two. Fresh off getting ripped by Cole Beasley and the Rams slot WR duo, this matchup is great for Thomas, regardless of his breakout game last week (9-98-1, 8-90-1 from the slot). San Francisco allows 7.3 targets per game for 5.1-62.9-0.5. Thomas is not a TE — he lines up as a slot WR — so ignore people telling you it is a tough matchup due to traditional DvP.
49ers
Nick Mullens crumbles under pressure, and Washington can bring the heat (eighth in fantasy points allowed to QBs). I don’t see any way he repeats his 316-3-2 performance against Buffalo.
I do like his WRs, with both Deebo Samuel (22 targets in his last two) and Brandon Aiyuk (23 targets in his last two) in the lineup. Mike Shanahan is great at designing plays to get these guys the ball in a position to run after the catch. Washington has missed the sixth-most tackles on the season, and we saw what can happen when they miss a key tackle in the open field last week, when James Washington should have been easily tackled after a completion but instead broke it for a long TD. I would put both of these guys as one-offs in your player pool if you are running 150-lineups, with Aiyuk as my preference on DK and Deebo on FD due to their prices.
This is a Jordan Reed revenge game, though I don’t know why he would be mad at them for getting hurt every year. Washington has been league average against TEs, which gives Reed a chance, but I have a good 8-9 TEs I prefer over him.
Raheem Mostert admitted Thursday that he is still dealing with a knee issue but will play through it. That makes his 40.3% and 44.3% of team snaps in perspective. Jeffery Wilson played 34.7% and 45.9%, with Tevin Coleman and Kyle Juszcyk mixing in just enough to make them all players to avoid.
Core plays: J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas, Washington DST, San Francisco DST
GPP only: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Peyton Barber (FD GPP punt, makes sense to stack with Washington DST)
Top Stacks:
GB/DET
TEN/JAX (2 RBs, Davis, AJ)
MIN/TB
SEA
KC Stack + DWash
CASH/CORE PLAYS
Core (FD): Stafford – DWash – Henry – Gallup – Adams – Monty – Blake – Kelce
Core (DK): Stafford – Monty – D. WASH – C. Davis – Berrios (Blake if Crowder plays) – Adams – Kelce
The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE)
DK Metcalf
J. Taylor (was in the CORE until D. WASH)
M. Williams
TJ HOCK – SWIFT runbacks to GB STACKS
Aaron Jones
Jefferson
Underweight – McKissic, Ridley, Ekeler, Texans WRs + Akins, F1, Saints other than Taysom
Low(er) owned one-offs: Ronald Jones, Taysom Hill, ARob, Amari
UPDATE
Lenny Fournette is a healthy scratch – I already liked Jones quite a bit, now I love him. I don’t think his ownership will be too bad with the news breaking later and there being so many RBs on this slate.
