MSG Week 13 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to The Breakdown for Week 13, a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 13.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.

CLE +6. O/U: 54.5
CLE: 24 | TEN: 31

Pace and playcalling 

These are two teams that love to run the rock, with Tennessee fourth and Cleveland first overall in attempts per game, and fourth (Tennessee) and first in RB yards per game (Cleveland is first, Tennessee fourth in 20-yard runs). 

Their offensive lines rank first (Cleveland) and second in adjusted line yards per carry. 

Tennessee plays at a fast pace, which has led to big fantasy games, averaging 55.4 PPG (4-1-1 to the OVER). 

Cleveland had been playing in high-scoring games before their run-in with the Steelers on the road and the bad weather games. Pulling out their home/road splits, which eliminates the weather, their games average 58.6 PPG compared to 42.5 at home. 

The Titans are 26th in yards and 24th in points per drive, while Cleveland is 17th in yards and 22nd in points per drive, which are factors fueling this surprisingly high total. 

Another factor is Tennessee’s run on OVERs since Ryan Tannehill has taken over as QB. They are 18-5-1 to the over and have averaged 29.17 PPG since the change at QB (16.8 PPG in six games with Marcus Mariota to start 2019). 

Browns

Tennessee has not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 3, but that will be tested by Nick Chubb and this Cleveland offensive line (5.17 RB yards per carry, first). Since returning from injury, Chubb has been a machine, 19.3 carries for 128.0 yards per game and two scores. That is five straight over the century mark (if we pull out his injury game) with 6 TDs. All six were Cleveland wins, so there is still some risk that he would lose some work to Baker Mayfield and Kareem Hunt if Tennessee gets a lead. That said, last week was the first time we have seen Chubb dominate RB snaps since Week 3; he out-targeted Kareem Hunt for the first time this season and ran more routes. Just the potential of Chubb getting a little of his passing production back gives me a good feeling. Tennessee has allowed 11 receptions to RBs in two of their last four, including last week to Indianapolis (11-101-0). 

Chubb continues to be criminally underused in DFS, which I suppose is simply due to Hunt’s presence. But he is averaging 19.8 rush attempts per game in his last five healthy games, which is only behind Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook. 

Baker Mayfield and the passing game finally got decent weather last week and “exploded” for 258 passing yards, only the second time he has surpassed 250 this season. He still didn’t get to 30 pass attempts and did not play particularly well, missing a wide-open Rashard Higgins (and Kareem Hunt on a goal-line pass play (shown below). 

One thing Mayfield has going for him is 27 end-zone targets on 294 attempts, second-highest on a percent basis (9.2%) behind Russell Wilson (47 on 393 attempts, 12.0%). The Titans have been generous to QBs, allowing 2.42 QB TDs per game over their last seven, which has led to the fifth-most fantasy points per game allowed (23 passing TDs, second-most). I am never on Mayfield, but the high total and poor Tennessee defense (31st in pressure rate and QB hurries) have him on my radar at $5.3k on DK. 

Jarvis Landry started the post-Odell Beckham part of his season with a tough matchup in Pittsburgh (5-48-0), and then the three CLE wins in bad weather that saw Mayfield throw for 150 yards a game. Last week, he reminded us he is a producer when targeted, posting 8-143-1 on a season-high 11 targets (37% target share). He is less expensive on FD, which has a higher cap, making him one of the best value plays there. Many focus on slot coverage with Landry, but with Cleveland using 2-TE sets so often, he ends up on the outside for half of his snaps. Last week, he only lined up inside seven times (2-42-0 on 2 targets), 33% of his routes. Per our advanced DvP tool, Tennessee is bad across all sectors, so I don’t think it matters. That said, it is interesting to point out Football Outsiders graded Landry as a more efficient/productive WR on the outside in 2019.

Austin Hooper was a major letdown last week considering they finally passed in a higher-scoring game. Luckily he scored, but two receptions and 13 yards won’t get it done. These secondary options are tough in this offensive scheme, Rashard Higgins, Hooper and Harrison Bryant are not guys you often need to use on your Baker stacks. If you want to get weird in a Milly Maker I rank them in the order listed. (Khadarel Hodge being ruled OUT means all the above guys get slight upgrades, and you can expect to see Donovan Peoples-Jones on those 3-WR sets.)

Titans

Cleveland wishes Mayfield could just be Ryan Tannehill — just hand the ball off, be efficient in play-action, don’t turn the ball over, you know the model. Tannehill only averages 3.3 pass attempts more than Mayfield, but he has six more TDs on 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt (fourth). He is fifth in fantasy points per dropback, compared to 19th for Mayfield. A big (literally) part of that is A.J. Brown, who is 10th in YAC. Brown continue to defy math, with five games in a row with 4 receptions or fewer, now 40th in total receptions this season, and 7th in TDs. Brown gets a plus matchup against a Cleveland secondary that will be without Denzel Ward. As a normal rule, I shy away from players with volume issues, but Brown offers such a high ceiling every week, and if he does end up getting 8-10 targets, he could break the slate. 

Speaking of breaking the slate, Derrick Henry is back to his normal fall routine, running for 100 yards in his past three games against Indianapolis (twice) and Baltimore, two teams in the top-10 in most rush defense categories. Cleveland has started to give it up to RBs, though with the King, I don’t think looking at their success against Houston, Philadelphia or Cincinnati is any help (Houston and Cincinnati are 32nd and 31st in adjusted line yards allowed). 

Cleveland will get back Myles Garrett from the COVID-19 list, but they are still without Ronnie Harrison, who is a plus run defender from the safety position. 

Coachspeak is usually BS, but in this situation, where Henry is such a strong play, even the possibility of more receiving work is enough for me. That was the story out of Nashville this week, that head coach Mike Vrabel would like to get Henry more involved in the passing game. He has 50 red-zone (first) and 15 end-zone (third) to go along with his 121.3 total yards per game, so with or without Rodger Saffold (questionable), he is a top-three option. 

Adam Humphries has been cleared from concussion protocol after missing four games and should be back in the slot. Jonnu Smith (knee) is OUT, so no need to adjust projections for Brown and Corey Davis, but it does take away the Titans’ No. 1 passing option in the red zone this season (13 targets). 

TE MyCole Pruitt should be back after missing three games; he and Geoff Swaim will play along with Anthony Firkser when Tennessee plays multiple TEs. 

Firkser has been my guy for a while, so I am not going to be concerned with Swaim (64% snap share last week), who saw 3 targets to Firkser’s 1 (26%). My guess is Firkser absorbs Smith’s role, and Swaim stays where he is as the TE2. Firkser’s last seven games with Smith in the lineup have been solid, especially in the year 2020, when TE production has been so sporadic (20-213-1, on 29 targets). 

Like all these passing options, Firkser is far from a lock. Tannehill will spread the ball around, in addition to Henry absorbing so much usage, but at minimum price, it is a risk I will be taking. 

Core plays: Jarvis Landry, Anthony Firsker, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb

GPP only: (I will be running out a few game stacks) Henry, A.J. Brown (good as a one-off), Baker Mayfield, Austin Hooper, Kareem Hunt, Rashard Higgins, Ryan Tannehill/Firsker/Brown stack, Tannehill/Firsker/Corey Davis stack

DET +3. O/U: 44.5
DET: 20.5 | CHI: 23.5

Pace and playcalling 

The Lions are 5-0 to the OVER at home, but 2-4 on the road, averaging just 20.67 PPG. 

The Bears are 1-4 to the UNDER at home this season, averaging 16.8 PPG in Chicago. 

Detroit is so bad on defense (30th in DVOA), allowing 29.8 PPG this season (26.2 away), that Chicago players have some appeal in a home game with mild December weather. 

Lions

Kenny Golladay (hip), DE Da’Shawn Hand (groin) and CB Jeff Okudah (shoulder) have been ruled out. 

D’Andre Swift has been cleared from the concussion protocol, but is listed as questionable after missing the final two practices of the week. Interim coach Darrell Bevell told The Detroit News that Swift will have a “smaller, game-plan specific role.”

After hearing Adrian Peterson’s comments, I hope they hold him out in this meaningless game in the scheme of his career/life. According to SI, “Peterson said during his media session Thursday that Swift hasn’t been himself since suffering a brain injury. “It’s unfortunate that he’s dealing with this and something that he’s going through. When I see him, I’m always picking his brain, checking in on his health and how he’s feeling. Is he improving? That’s the most important thing,” Peterson said. “To kind of see him not being himself, that energy level, when you see him not being the same because of what he’s dealing with, it hurts because I want to see him be successful. We miss him out there, as well.”

I will update this game Saturday, but I will likely be staying away from Detroit on my three-max and single-entry/cash. I think Swift sits, but Akiem Hicks is looking like he will be back, which has me off of the RBs. 

Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson are both coming off nice games, but let’s not forget we are just a week removed from this offense getting shut out by the Panthers. Hockenson is my guy, so I don’t mind running him out at 5% ownership against a Bears team that has allowed big production to the TE, including 8-98-2 last week in Green Bay (fourth-most fantasy points per game allowed). He is a top-three option at TE. 

Bears

Allen Robinson is listed as questionable on the injury report after he left Friday’s practice with a knee issue. Matt Nagy indicated that it was more for precautionary reasons and doesn’t think it’s anything serious. Darnell Mooney was also held out of Friday’s workout as a precaution but is also supposed to play. 

Defensive tackle Akiem Hicks (hamstring) is on track to return, which is a big boost to the Chicago front-seven. 

Nick Foles (hip), is expected to serve as the Bears’ backup quarterback behind Mitchell Trubisky.

Trubisky used garbage time and a positive gamescript for his best finish of the season last week, posting 242-3-2. We have seen him excel against the Lions, averaging 27.73 fantasy points per game on DK in four games (277 yards and 3 TDs per game) compared to 15.94 in his 31 other career starts. That said, we need Robinson to be active to run him out. 

David Montgomery is apparently going to be chalk, ranking behind only Dalvin Cook in ownership projections. I get that he turned 16 touches into 143 total yards and a touchdown, but this seems like an easy fade if he is truly going to 25% owned. Robinson being declared out may have me change my tune, so check back if you see that news break. Not sure what else they can do if Robinson is out but feature Montgomery. Anthony Miller and Mooney (if he plays) would also become value plays. 

Cole Kmet (70%, 79% snap share last two), has been making his move on Jimmy Graham, which doesn’t make him a play yet, but it should have you off of Graham, who is simply a TD or bust option at this point. 

Core plays: T.J. Hockenson, David Montgomery (cash) 

GPP only: Mitchell Trubisky/Allen Robinson (check update after Chicago WR and Swift news break)

CIN +11.5. O/U: 42
CIN: 14.5 | MIA: 27

Pace and playcalling 

Week two without Joe Burrow, so we will look at last week’s pace and playcalling with Brandon Allen under center. The first thing that stands out is 46 offensive plays, which was only better than a team that had four QBs on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Cincinnati averaged 68.5 plays per game with Burrow. 

Cincinnati continued to play at its normal fast pace and passed on 69% of plays, as a result of playing from behind on half their plays where they passed 82%. That tells us they don’t mind asking Allen to drop back, even if it is hard to watch. Cincinnati managed 3.4 yards per play, only better than Denver at 2.6. 

Miami has allowed the second-fewest points while being second in takeaways per game. Cincinnati gave it away three times last week, with two charged to Allen. The Bengals have managed just 12.33 points per game over their last three games

The Bengals extended their winless streak on the road to 19 games (0-18-1), but are 14-8 ATS the spread over that span. 

Bengals

This is not a team we need to look too far into given the factors above, mainly Allen. Only the Eagles have allowed more sacks, so against the blitz-happy Dolphins (41.5%, first), this could get ugly. 

Giovani Bernard has been a victim of the low play volume over his last three games, averaging 11.33 touches per game over that span after 18 in his first two starts without Joe Mixon. We would rather attack Miami with RBs, but it is hard to envision a script that will allow an increase in rushing production, leaving his passing-game work and the hope and prayer of a TD. 

Tee Higgins is a grown-ass man, despite being a rookie. He continues to show why many like him as much as any of these talented rookie WRs drafted last spring. That said, tied to Allen, and against a Miami team that has done well against outside WR, this is not the week. The same can be said for Tyler Boyd and the rest of the Bungles — there is contrarian, and then there is stacking the Bengals with Allen at QB. 

Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa is a game-time decision. I will update this section after the news comes in. DeVante Parker was close to a lock button for me last week with Ryan Fitzpatrick back and Preston Williams out (8-119-0 on 14 targets). Parker needs Fitzpatrick under center to be on my main teams. 

Ian Rappaport reported that Tua will get the start, which has me downgrade Davante Parker from a cash game/single-entry type player to large-field GPP only.

Miles Gaskin is the play, especially on FD, where he is just $5.5k. Matt Breida, DeAndre Washington, and Salvon Ahmed are all OUT, leaving just Gaskin and Patrick Laird. I would also expect Malcolm Perry to mix in as a pass-catching back, however, he too is questionable. Perry is not a back that will steal carries, and the Bengals have a 15.5 team total, so not sure how active he will be regardless. At $5.5k on FD, he is the best value RB on the slate, he and the MIA DT are an easy/safe way to start your CASH teams over there. At $5.9k on DK, I don’t see him as necessary. I really don’t want to play any of the three chalk RBs today, but expecting all three to flop is a lot to ask. 

Core plays: Gaskin, Miami DST 

GPP only: N/A (wait for the Saturday update) 

IND -3. O/U: 51.5
IND: 27 | HOU: 24

Pace and Play-Calling

INDY was exposed like we expected would happen as their schedule turned more competitive, allowing 31 and 45 points in their last two. 

Indy has been good at limiting opponents’ play volume (5th), which has been a concern for HOU (32nd in plays per game), who begin life without Will Fuller. 

Both teams are league-average in pace, but INDY will speed up to a top-6 pace when trailing and move from 53% TO 65% pass rate. 

HOU can’t score early, averaging 4 points per quarter this season, but they busted out last week in DET for 13, their biggest first quarter this season. INDY has allowed the second most points in the first quarter over their last 3 games, nearly 10 points per quarter. 

HOU is third in first down pass rate, INDY is 9th. 

66.8% of the yardage by the Texans has come from passing, the highest rate in the league.

Colts

Phil Rivers has been much better later this season, mostly due to a better game script that has gotten him passing more. He is averaging 22.31 FPPG in his last six games (minus BAL). I threw out BAL because they are nothing like HOU, who is 31st in yards and 27th in points per drive. If Watson can get it done without Fuller (big IF), Rivers should be pulled into another positive situation against this poor HOU secondary. It sounds like Rivers is banged up, and will play through it, that is an issue for someone of his advanced age. 

“It’s kind of a touch-and-go deal,’’ he said. “It can get aggravated and take a take back, but what we’re anticipating and hopeful for is that each week it gets one step better. I feel like we’re there this week. 

With Jacoby Brisset becoming a real “thing” in the red zone, I can’t use Rivers and am very worried about using any Colts back for the volatile nature of the usage and Brissett taking away GL opportunities. If Rivers is banged up, no reason to think they will stop using that package. 

Rookie Jonathan Taylor is back and should resume RB1 duties or at least a Taylor dominated RBBC with Nyheim Hines. This backfield has been a mess with all three healthy, but Taylor has immense upside if they do decide to give him one of his 20+ carry games. He has 100 and 110 total yards in two games with 20 touches and runs into the AWFUL HOU rush D, which even made Adrian Peterson become viable for a week. HOU is 32nd in RB yards allowed per carry at 5.23, which is just what this INDY offensive line needs to get right, sitting in 25th in adjusted line yards. 

Speaking of the offensive line, Anthony Castonzo (knee) was one of four players ruled out of the Texans’ game. Castonzo sprained the medial collateral ligament in his right knee in the second quarter of the Titans game. Center Ryan Kelly, who missed the Titans game, was a full participant and will return.

Michael Pittman got shut down last week, but we need to get right back on the horse. He still ran a team-high 40 pass routes & nine targets. With Bradley Roby OUT, this bad secondary becomes even worse. Keion Crossen is 5-9”, 178 pounds, which is not going to cut it against the 6’4 Pittman. Vernon Hargreave is also my height, so has no chance, he gives up over 2 FPPT this season in coverage. 

T.Y. Hilton has dominated this matchup in his career and gets all the same positive matchups that Pittman gets. Hilton has not played a single snap inside in the last two weeks, with Zach Pascal (31 slot snaps) and Trey Burton (17 slot snaps)  handling those duties. Hilton popping here is our biggest risk to Pittman, like last week, but I am sticking to the younger, bigger, WR. 

Mo-Alie Cox, Burton, and Jack Doyle are the other potential trolls for our Pittman play, but with all three active I can’t play any of them, just hope they don’t go off and take all the TDs. 

Texans

Looking at Watson’s splits without Fuller are misleading, in Watson’s 52 career games, he has never suited up without either Fuller or DeAndre Hopkins, making this uncharted territory for the red-hot Watson (35 FPPG, last two.) 

Watson thrives when he is kept clean, completing a league-high 88% of his passes. The HOU has quietly been moving up the ranks in pressure rate and adjusted sack rate allowed, which is likely correlated with Waston’s surge. How good has he been? How about 31.12 FPPG in the six games since BOB was fired (minus the crazy weather game in CLE). The danger for me is they see David Johnson back and try to run first again. 

The return of DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry (COVID-19 list), should get the Colts D back on track against the run, where HOU has not been able to do anything all season. HOU is 32nd in adjusted line yards and RB yards gained this season. Colts gave up a season-high in points, total yards (449), yards per play (6.6), rushing yards (229), yards per attempt (5.1) and first downs (28) last week against TENN.

HOU runs 3-WR sets on 66% of plays this season, so I don’t see them shifting into heavy 12-personnel. That said, it will likely go up a bit with Darren Fells, Jordan Akins, and Pharaoh Brown already playing 30-50% of snaps respectively. 

Per our Rotowire feed, Isaiah Coulter should play opposite Brandin Cooks on the outside in those 3-WR sets, with Keekee Coutee remaining in the slot. Coulter is a fifth-round pick who posted 72-1039-7 at Rhode Island in his final year there. He has good size and speed but will see more Xavier Rhodes than Cooks, as Rhodes does not move around anymore. 

Jordan Akins dropped an EASY touchdown and then had another missed score later in the game that was more on the QB, still, a donut for Thanksgiving was brutal for a ton of DFS players that went with him as the value HOU passing option. He led in routes and targets and should get a bump without Fuller, so I like the play if you are making Watson stacks.

Core plays: Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, Deshaun Watson 

GPP only: Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, Akins,  Nyheim Hines,

JAX +9.5. O/U: 51.5
JAX: 21 | MIN: 31

Jaguars

Mike Glennon will get his second start, this time with D.J. Chark in the lineup. James Robinson remains the best and safest play for the Jags, playing 97% of snaps last week with Chris Thompson on IR. He saw 6 targets from his new QB, the most he has seen since Week 7. Robinson is fourth in carries and yards on the season, and lands in an underrated great spot, with Minnesota 28th in adjusted line yards allowed. They are also seventh in RB targets allowed, so again, Robinson is a top-three option, behind Henry and Dalvin Cook. He is no longer our little secret, projected at 24% ownership, which is behind only Cook, Austin Ekeler and Montgomery. 

Chark lands in a situation we have been targeting all season against the porous Minnesota secondary. Chark missed Week 12 with a rib injury but looks like a full go this week in a script that should get him volume. Minnesota is 29th in fantasy points per game allowed to WRs, simply getting let off the hook last week with the Carolina defensive scores and Teddy Bridgewater’s shaky play. 

Keelan Cole led the team in routes and targes last week, with Laviska Shenault and Collin Johnson not far behind. Chark being back makes all these guys and Tyler Eifert fades. It’s Chark, it’s Robinson, and that’s it for Jacksonville

UPDATE 

I am moving on to more JAX and Vikings stacks, including more Keelan Cole on Draftkings at $3.8k. Every sector of the field is green with this Vikings secondary, but they have been lit up by slot WRs. Per our advanced DvP tool, MINN has allowed 7.7 targets for 5.2-62.8 for 15.8 FP per game. Even last week without DJ Chark, Cole remained inside for over 70% of his snaps, as the Jaguars stayed in heavy 3-WR sets (71%). With Chark back, we can expect more 3-WR personnel, with Tyler Eifert being the only player lining up as a slot receiver with any consistency. With Jax surely down, we could get Glennon chucking it 40 times (35 pass attempts vs CLE). As a 10-point dog, the Vikes are projected to score 30+ points (JAX has averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game on the road), so all these pass catchers should be busy. With his $4.8k price, plus Cole at $3.8k, you can fit Cook (Dalvin got a nice projection bump in our model since Mattison was removed. The RB2 hasn’t done much, but it should remove some troll risk from Cook who has caught the last fifteen consecutive targets from Cousins in their last four games. 

Vikings 

Jacksonville was already a bad secondary, and then the team kept sustaining injuries to go even further down a thin roster. The Jaguars have been bringing up players from the practice squad and off the street to try and hang with some of the league’s best WRs (and Marquez Valdes-Scantling). 

Since Week 6, Jacksonville has been getting lit up by opposing WRs:

• Brandin Cooks: 8-161-1 and 3-83-1
• Will Fuller: 4-58-1 and 5-100-1
• Kenny Golladay: 4-105-0
• Keenan Allen: 10-125-0
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 4-149-1
• Davante Adams: 8-66-1
• Diontae Johnson: 12-111-0
• Chase Claypool: 4-59-1
• Jarvis Landry: 8-143-1

It’s Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen’s turn this week, with the best matchup on the slate and so much ownership flowing to Dalvin Cook, the Kirk Cousins/Jefferson/Thielen stack will be a fun stack to gain leverage in GPPs.

Dalvin Cook got banged up last week (ankle) but practiced in full and should be a full go against Jacksonville. With Jacksonville being down since the season started (second-most snaps from behind), they have faced 30.2 rush attempts per game. That is a nasty combo against the team that averages 29.2 rush attempts per game (48% neutral pass rate). We saw the results of a successful zone-blocking team against this defense with 30 rush attempts last week, with Cleveland rushing for 206 yards and a TD. Cook is the no-brainer RB1 on the slate. 

Irv Smith is OUT again, giving Kyle Rudolph some appeal, but not like he had when Thielen was also OUT. Like everything else, Jacksonville does not defend the TE well, so if you stack the WRs or play Cook, Rudolph is the guy who can troll us. 

Core plays: Dalvin Cook, James Robinson 

GPP only: Kirk Cousins/Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark 

LV -7.5. O/U: 47
LV: 28 | NYJ: 19

Pace and playcalling 

Only the Jets can be a 7-point underdog at home against a team that just got slaughtered 43-6 by the Falcons last week. 

Raiders

Nelson Agholor has an ankle injury that he apparently suffered in the beatdown last week. He appears to be a game-time decision, but hoping we get the news Saturday. With Josh Jacobs already declared OUT, Agholor’s availability is a major factor in breaking this one down for DFS. 

According to ESPN’s Paul Gutierrez, (Agholor) “could be in legitimate jeopardy.” 

If Agholor misses, Hunter Renfrow, Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards and Zay Jones would get the run, with TE Darren Waller remaining the alpha. 

Jets

Sam Darnold has not thrown a TD pass in four starts and has not gone over 200 yards in five of six games. He has decent weapons finally, but I’m not sure if they’re even trying at this point. 

Denzel Mims has 7.6 targets per game in his last three, playing full tim- snaps. This could certainly be the spot he finally gets in the box, after catching 17 balls in his last four starts. He is my top choice for a Jets receiver, but I don’t think you have to run it back. If we are trying to be unique, using the most popular runback in your stack usually creates one more stage of having a duplicate lineup. Sometimes picking a less popular runback, or not one at all can make your stack more unique. This is more applicable with a team like the Jets than a real NFL team. 

Breshad Perriman is getting similar usage to Mims, including 3 TDs in his last three games. He continues to come in at lower ownership that Mims while outperforming him. Jamison Crowder is still alive, out there running a ton of routes, but his production has completely dried up with the return of Mims and Perriman. 

Core plays: Darren Waller, Devontae Booker 

GPP only: Derek Carr, Henry Ruggs (check back for Saturday update after Agholor news) 

SUNDAY AM UPDATE  

Nelson Agholor logged a limited practice session on FRI and was removed from the injury report. Still, this is odd to me, he has been a player that practices in full (does not do the “veteran rest” thing). so I do think he is banged up and playing through it. You know my rule, He and Waller are great options if you have the stomach left from last week. I think we all need to have a Raiders stack in some capacity, just to ease the pain of them going off a week after stinking up the Dome in Atlanta. 

The Jets are SLOW in the secondary and give up BIG PLAYS, allowing 3.5. 20+ yard pass plays p/g and 7, 40+ yard pass plays this season. Henry Ruggs ran 30 routes for the second time last week, an encouraging sign. He also got 5-targets, which tied the most he has seen. He is DeSean Jackson ten years ago, could get you zero or could get you 14 points on one play. I like him if you are putting in Raiders” stacks in the Milly Maker or large $3-20 Max, etc.  

Waller remains the clear cut TE1 on the slate, with so many people saving money at the position, he is relatively low-owned in our model. 

I am staying on the “fade Booker” train, but he is projected to get 15+ touches so I won’t hate on anyone for going there in cash. 

Mims and Perriman are my preferred runbacks. 

NO -3. O/U: 45.5
NO: 24.5 | ATL: 21

Saints

Taysom Hill is back in a dome, against a familiar foe in Atlanta that just allowed him to complete 78% of his passes and roll to 25.22 DraftKings points. I called him a Tim Tebow on steroids, and that is what he is, completing just 9 passes for 78 yards last week but still finishing with 18.52 fantasy points thanks to 44 rush yards and 2 more rush TDs. His presence kills Alvin Kamara, as predicted. The RB has 3 targets in Hill’s two starts. Latavius Murray seems to be more in the mix with this offense, seeing 34 touches to Kamara’s 25 in Hill’s two starts. 

Michael Thomas is the only guy we need to worry about with Hill, seeing 18 targets in two games, with Emmanuel Sanders next with six. This is a completely different situation and offense than it is with Drew Brees under center, so proceed accordingly. 

Falcons

Julio Jones and Todd Gurley are both listed as questionable, but the reports are Jones should be back. Gurley is more of an unknown, but it looks like he may be back, though likely in a RBBC. 

This situation calls for a Saturday update, but the New Orleans defense has started to turn it on, so this is not the guaranteed shootout this game has been known for in recent past. 

Core plays: Taysom Hill, Michael Thomas 

GPP only: Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Matt Ryan 

LAR -3. O/U: 48.5
LAR: 26 | AZ: 23

Rams

Robert Woods has exploded after an off start to the season compared to preseason expectations. He has posted 12-130-1 (15 targets) and 7-80-0 (12 targets) in his last two games and now runs into a matchup that he has dominated. His success makes sense, knowing the sectors of the field we like to attack Arizona in (see Tyler Lockett). He and Cooper Kupp each played exactly 21 slot snaps last week, so neither is the “lot WR; they both are. Kupp has become more of a GPP option, with a high ceiling (28.5 fantasy points two weeks ago vs. Tampa) and a low floor (six games under 11 fantasy points). These two plus Jared Goff make one of my favorite GPP stacks this week, with Goff dropping below $6k. 

Los Angeles has gone 0-5 to the UNDER at home, but has been a mixed bag (3-3) on the road. Los Angeles is very comfortable to run when given a lead and rely on their defense, and we have seen this Arizona offense fluctuate dramatically from week to week, so this game has a wide range of outcomes from a run-heavy game (both teams are top-nine in overall rush rate). 

The running backs and tight ends are too hard to trust, so it’s Woods, Kupp and Goff and that’s it for the Rams this week. 

Cardinals

Kyler Murray has seen his rushing production plummet since getting banged up against Seattle, rushing for 46 yards in two weeks after averaging nearly 70 to start the season. Without the rushing upside, he is not as appealing, so you have to put your faith that he will get it cranked back up with his legs this week against the Rams. The Rams have been more susceptible on the road, but this is still a top defensive unit (fourth in pass, seventh in rush DVOA), so this is a tough spot to pay-up for Murray in anything but large GPPs 

Kenyan Drake is not someone I get excited about rostering with our guy; Chase Edmonds locked in as the passing-down specialist. Rams have been underrated good against the run, so this is not the week for these RBs. 

Core plays: Robert Woods 

GPP only: Jared Goff/Cooper Kupp/Woods stack 

NYG +10. O/U: 48.5
NYG: NA | SEA: NA

Giants

Colt McCoy will start with Daniel Jones likely OUT. Seattle is a team to target for its poor pass D in combo with a high-powered offense that doesn’t allow a team to play conservatively. McCoy is just $4.8k — yet another reason to like him in this spot — but it is still a tough sell. The defense has been improving, holding Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz to 5.5 YPA.

Sterling Shepard saw four targets (3 receptions) last week out of McCoy’s 10 attempts. He has shown no upside, better for prop betting, posting 6-59-1,8-74-0, 6-39-0, 6-47-0, 7-64-0 in his last five.

Darius Slayton and Shepard play outside with Golden Tate back in the mix. Tate and TE Evan Engram have played the most slot snaps this season (Engram, 35% slot rate, last 3). That matters since SEA has allowed 19.8 FPPG to slot WRs, which is 5.2 FP worst than CLE. 

Engram was only targeted once with McCoy, but his combo of high usage lately (9 or more targets in three of his last four), and higher probability of TD has him as my preferred runback to your Seattle stacks. Seattle just allowed 16 targets to the Philadelphia TEs for 10-128-2. 

Wayne Gallman stretched his rushing touchdown streak to five games while setting a new career-high with 27 touches against Cincinnati, as the Giants dealt with Jones going down. A trip to Seattle should not yield a similar script to a game in Cincinnati, so there is no chance Gallman is getting to 24 rush attempts. Gallman hasn’t shown much upside as a pass catcher, Dion Lewis will get more run if they are playing from behind, so I think this is the week we jump off Gallman. Seattle remains a tough matchup for backs, allowing the lowest rush rate against and just 3.6 RB yards per carry (the Giants OL is 29th in adjusted line yards gained).

Seahawks

Russell Wilson runs into a great matchup, despite the Giants looking solid against Brandon Allen and Carson Wentz. Much like Seattle, New York is pushing opponents into a high pass rate. With Seattle scaling back Wilson’s pass rate (29 pass attempts per game in his last two, after averaging 37 in his first nine). The issue with counting on that is McCoy and a Giants offense that only mustered 19 points in Cincinnati. The Giants are better against the run, but Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde should be able to have enough success that it should make a Wilson ceiling game less likely. That said, it’s Wilson, and it’s DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, so he could throw up a classic Russ game of 200 yards and 4 TDs on 30 pass attempts. 

Metcalf embarrassed Darius Slay on national TV last week, catching 10-177-0. This week, it’s James Bradberry’s turn to take his chance against the Cyborg. Bradberry has been much better than he was in Carolina, but if Wilson wants to go after him like Slay, I don’t see him slowing the big man down. 

SUNDAY UPDATE 

Carlos Hyde is IN. I still expect to see more Chris Carson, who logged a full practice on FRI. Considering the ownership spread between Carson and Booker on DK, you have to like him as a GPP Pivot. 

From a pure matchup standpoint, the heat maps look great for a big Lockett game. The Giants opponents have targeted the short to intermediate sections of the field on 73% of pass plays, which is where Lockett has seen the most targets and highest success rate. 

Carson played 37% of snaps last week compared to 61% for Hyde. Carson looked good for returning after a foot injury, maximizing his 10 touches into 69 total yards and a score. I would expect the snap share to get closer to 50/50, even favoring Carson this week, but there is no way Hyde is just disappearing.

Per SeahawksWire.com: “Chris is a little sore coming out of the game,” Carroll said during his Wednesday press conference. “It’s the first time he’s played in a while. I’m anxious to see how he feels this week. We’ll work him through it. He didn’t have a lot of carries in the game, but did take some good hits and delivered some really good ones. So we’ll see how he’s feeling. Should be fine for the ball game.”

Will Dissly outsnapped Jacob Hollister 48-37, but Hollister ran 22 pass routes and saw four targets (2-22-0) compared to 18 routes and zero targets for Dissly, who was used as the blocking TE. It appears Hollister is the guy to take a shot on, but it is best to just avoid it and stack Russ with the two big boys. 

Injuries 

• Cornerback Tre Flowers, who has a hamstring injury sustained in Monday’s win over the Eagles. If Flowers is indeed unable to go, it’s likely that D.J. Reed 
• RB Travis Homer (wrist/knee/thumb, did not participate)
• Friday update: Carlos Hyde (toe) is also banged up, but should play. We could see a little more DeeJay Dallas either way, but I still don’t think this means they give Carson 20-plus touches. 

Core plays: Tyler Lockett

GPP only: Russell Wilson/DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett stack, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard 

NE -1. O/U: 47.5
NE: 24 | LAC: 23.5

Pace and playcalling 

New England has been the most volatile and inconsistent offense, but the home/road trend I outlined last week held up again. They are 1-5 to the UNDER at home, allowing 19.3 PPG in New England compared to 27.8 PPG away. 

The Chargers have been bad everywhere and have allowed 28 PPG in their last three to fall to 25th overall (27.3 PPG allowed). 

New Englandhas seen the fewest pass attempts against this season, and the fewest opponent plays overall, while the Chargers run the most plays per game (72.6), making this one a difficult game to handicap with a wide range of outcomes. 

Los Angeles ran an obscene 84 plays last week and passed at 70%. They played ultra-fast, so if New England can get a lead, they will crank it up. The inverse of that will be a slow New England team that runs at nearly 70%. 

The Chargers saw their DVOA rank plummet to 28th overall due to their 31st rush rank (20-141-0 to the Bills on the ground, plus another 32 yards and a score to Josh Allen. 

Patriots

The Chargers have allowed healthy QB production, but it is hard to see Cam Newton having another one of his random 300-yard road performances. That said, neither I nor anyone else saw the 355 in Houston or the 397 in Seattle coming. I can’t remember a more volatile QB than Newton has been this season; for proof, take his last three weeks, which have seen him throw for 118, 365 and 84 passing yards. He has a mind-blowing four TD passes in 11 games this season, compared to 9 rush TDs. Newton needs 50 rush yards and at least one rush TD to be viable in DFS. Los Angeles has allowed four rushing TDs to quarterbacks, including one last week. Like the Patriots overall, Newton has big home/road splits, averaging 302 passing yards a game on the road vs. 129 at home (1.25 rush TDs p/g on the road).

I don’t have much interest in Damien Harris (or any NE player for that matter), despite the plus matchup with Los Angeles. Harris has managed 11 and 14 carries in his last two for 90 yards and a TD, but he has all of 4 receptions this season after failing to record a catch last week, so could get scripted out quickly. 

When James White gets two goal-line carries, you are reminded of the decades of tilt the Hoodie has provided to fantasy players. Also, if you were celebrating playing White last week, a reminder that you got one catch for one yard and two lucky TDs, so I would not feel great about the process, though I would have taken the results over dumbass Brian Hill as the chalk. If Justin Herbert can have his way and put up his normal 27-30 points in LA, White should be back in the mix as a passing back. He saw 9 targets in the Houston  game just two weeks ago and does not have to deal with Rex Burkhead anymore. He is my preferred run-back to Herbert stacks. 

Chargers

Austin Ekeler played 72% of snaps last week, getting 25 touches for 129 yards. He also continued a trend that Kalen Ballage started, seeing 16 targets as they played from behind. Ekeler did not show up on the injury report this week, so it should be all systems go again. Ballage will be active this week, and Joshua Kelley was in the mix for seven touches, but we don’t even need 25 touches to be more than happy with Ekeler at his price point. Like everything with New England, they have allowed so many plays that the numbers only look good on a per-play basis. For instance, they are 28th in targets to backs (57), but have allowed 48 receptions, which is an 85% catch rate. New England is also 27th in adjusted line yards allowed per carry, so there is nothing to fear from this matchup. 

Justin Herbert ran into a road matchup where he “struggled.” I use the quotes since his off game still equaled 316 passing yards and a TD. Combine that game with his other floor game in Miami, and all of a sudden, he has developed home/road splits. Herbert is averaging 336 passing yards in Los Angeles (267 away) for 28.92 fantasy points per game compared to 23.3 away. The Patriots are last in YPA allowed and have allowed the eight-most receptions of at least 20 yards, despite the second-fewest overall receptions. 

Stephon Gilmore will cover Mike Williams for the majority of his snaps, but I am not sure they will ask him to shadow. Last week, they did not ask him to travel with DeAndre Hopkins (5-55-0 on 7 targets). 

We properly timed “jump off Keenan Allen” week, but he still managed to find the end zone to save a 4-40 day on 10 targets. The volume was there, but 10 targets is not 19, a number he has seen two times this season without Ekeler. The Hoodie has schemed around stopping Allen in their previous matchups, though of course those games were with Philip Rivers and a different New England defense. I think Allen gets his 9-11 targets and 5-7 receptions for his 75-plus yards. I will link him up with Herbert on a GPP squad, but I don’t view him as the core WR of the week at $8.1k. 

After four weeks of nearly identical usage, Hunter Henry set a season-high with 10 targets last week (7-67-0). He sees the majority of his targets in the short left section of the field, where New England has allowed the highest success rate, so he would be “option 3” to connect with Herbert behind Ekeler and Allen. 

Core plays: Austin Ekeler 

GPP only: Justin Herbert/Keenan Allen, James White, Hunter Henry, Cam Newton

PHI +9.5. O/U: 47
PHI: 17.5 | GB: 28

Pace and playcalling 

Green Bay hosts the Eagles as the highest-scoring team in the league after hanging 41 points on the Bears. Despite playing well in a loss, Philadelphia is allowing 26.8 PPG and just seems overmatched here with how poorly Carson Wentz and the offensive line is playing. 

Philadelphia is 29th in yards and points per drive, while Green Bay is second in both yards and points per drive, so it is hard to see them being able to keep up for four quarters.

Philadelphia has been known for pushing teams into the pass with a stout run D, but playing from behind so much has its consequences. Their opponents pass at the third-lowest rate this season, despite being the better unit, which is likely the script again with Green Bay playing from the lead so often.

Only Jacksonville, the Jets and Dallas have played fewer snaps with at least a 7-point lead than the Eagles. They are fifth (behind the same three teams and Denver) in overall plays while trailing by 7-plus points as well. 

Eagles

Carson Wentz may get lucky and collect some garbage Hail Mary, but I have no interest in him. I don’t think any (non-replacement) QB is playing worse this year. It’s so bad I can barely stomach watching at this point. Per Player Profiler, he is last in danger plays and interceptable passes. In fairness, the offensive line is terrible, last in adjusted sack rate, which has led to 46 sacks — 8 more than Cincinnati in 31st. Philadelphia has 1.9 giveaways per game, which puts the Green Bay DST in play. 

Jalen Hurts rumors continue to swirl, so we can avoid Wentz despite being in another certain game script that will see him passing often (Philadelphia has the second-highest pass rate). 

Miles Sanders looked terrible Monday, seeing just eight touches for 22 yards. I want them to use him more in the passing game, but he looked lost in that role as well, so you can’t blame Philadelphia for using Boston Scott more (5-40-0). The best chance Philadelphia has is to take pressure off the terrible blocking line by running the ball, with Green Bay allowing 157 total yards per game and the third-most fantasy points. They continue to provide ceiling games for backs, even David Montgomery, who gashed them for 143 total yards and only 15 touches. Coming off such a bad performance on national TV, Sanders’ ownership is going to be 5-6%, which is why we are going to take the risk. 

I continue to pound the unders on Travis Fulgham, as the public is slow to adjust to the Eagles having so many new bodies in the target distribution mix. I am not touching Alshon Jeffery, Jalen Reagor or Greg Ward when they are all active, especially since our dude Dallas Goedert is back and doing Goedert things (5-77-1 and 7-75-1 in his last two). 

The bad news for Goedert is that Zach Ertz has been activated and is expected to play. That’s too bad, because the matchup is good and Goedert is only $4.3k. Ertz is now so cheap on DK ($3.9k), he can be used in GPPs at ultra-low ownership in large-scale GPPs if you MME, but I like Goedert more, with his availability to stretch the field and run after the catch. This could mean the end of Richard Rodgers, but it would not surprise me to see him out there a little with how many 2-TE sets Philadelphia uses.

Packers

Aaron Rodgers continues his monster comeback season, leading the league in TDs, true completion rate, QBR and fantasy points per dropback. Since the flop in Tampa, he has a six-game streak of at least 25.64 DK points. I don’t really understand why his price has gone from $7.9k in Week 10 to $6.8k this week after two games of 26.74 and 25.64 fantasy points. This is what we would call a market inefficiency and, thus Rodgers is our No. 1 QB on DK. 

Aaron Jones runs into the tough paper matchup with the Eagles front-seven, but as I have outlined many times, they are susceptible to big plays by backs (second-most 20-yard rush attempts, most 40-yard rush attempts allowed). Philly has also allowed 16 rush TDs (second-most). 

Davante Adams gets to continue the Darius Slay beatdown DK Metcalf started (assuming Slay plays). Adams posted 6-61-1 against Chicago, which is his floor game since Week 7. Not a ton of analysis needed — he should be the most owned WR on the slate and a must if you play Rodgers in tournaments. I don’t think he is a must in cash, with Jones, Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan active. Adams averaged 12 targets per game over his last three games and 8.5 in the two since Lazard came back. 

Core plays: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones 

GPP only: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan 

Top Stacks: 

JAX/MIN 

CLE/TEN

SEA 

OAK stack w/ Ruggs + Waller 

CASH/CORE PLAYS

Core (FD): Rodgers – Cook – Gaskin – Coutee – Pittman – Firsker – D. Henry 

Core (DK):  Rodgers- JRob – Cook – Coutee  – Cooks (I know this is a little unusual, but they are the best value WRs, IMO. If you prefer to diversify, play Keelan Cole instead of Coutee, and pivot from Landry to Robert Woods, who I have side-by-side in my DK ranks)  – Monty  

The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE)

Cousins + Jefferson + Thielen stacks 

Woods 

Chark

Lockett 

AGHOLOR on FD 

TANNEHILL + HUMPH + CHUBB + AJ + FIRSKER + LANDRY 

Underweight – All the Chalk RBs – though I am playing Gaskin on FD, ATL passing, D. Adams (though he is on a stack, I have Rodgers naked in cash) 

Low(er) owned one-offs: J. Taylor, Higgins + Baker w/ Landry, TAYSOM on FD