Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to The Breakdown for Week 5, a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend DFS slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.
I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 5.
#FTNDaily
All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
SF +5 @ ARI, O/U 50
Implied team totals: ARI 27.5, SF 22.5
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- The Cardinals lead the league in points per game (35) and are third in points per drive and second in net points per drive.
- San Francisco continues to run first (sixth overall), but their neutral rate is league average (17th).
- Arizona passes at a 60% rate, 10th highest in neutral, but drops to 45% with a lead, something they have had often this season (third-most plays with a lead).
- Arizona will shut it down with a lead — last week against the Rams, they took nearly the entire play clock (37.5 seconds) and passed at a 29% clip. Gross. We need San Francisco to stay close or in the lead for Arizona to keep the foot on the gas.
- Looking at just the second half of last week’s game, after Jimmy Garoppolo was hurt, San Francisco played very fast (22 seconds per play) and passed at a modest 54% rate.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Kyler Murray has that magical formula of a very high floor and very high ceiling (76.5% deep pass completion rate, first). Against San Francisco, he is averaging 66.75 rush yards per game, 29.09 above his career average. San Francisco allowed 82 rushing yards and a TD to Jalen Hurts and 26 rush yards and a TD to Russell Wilson. Coming off of two floor games and at a high price, Kyler is going to be very contrarian this week and thus one of my favorite tournament QBs. San Francisco has quietly allowed the fifth-most FP to QBs this season on a 65% completion rate against. They are bottom-five in pressure rate and QB hurries, which is death against Kyler, who is completing over 86% of his passes when clean (2nd).
Kyler has strong splits in his favor this week — in 18 games with a total of 49 or more (half his games), he has 26.13 FPPG (+5.99 on DK), which gets even more dramatic when you pull out the away games. In eight high-total games in Arizona, he has gone off for 32-plus FPPG on DK.
Deebo Samuel enters as the WR3 with 287 yards after the catch and a gaudy 36.5% target share. Arizona has allowed the ninth-most FP to the position, and Deebo moves all over the formation so will be able to take advantage of all three mediocre Arizona corners. Deebo is 82nd in average depth of target, so I have no worries about the QB change — I could complete most of the passes he catches.
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Trey Lance is like Kyler but with a (much) wider range of outcomes. Arizona has not been great in pressure since Week 1 in Tennessee, and we know the Titans are terrible in pass protection. If San Francisco can protect, he should pay off with his rushing ability (7-41-0) and playmakers who can run after the catch, but it may not be pretty (53% clean pocket completion rate). Of course, he is significantly cheaper than Kyler so can hit 4-5x at 24-30 points, whereas Kyler needs 32-40 FP.
Arizona’s defense is last in FTN Data’s gash rate, allowing the highest rate of rushes that go for 10-plus yards. They have also allowed healthy rush production to QBs (25 rush yards per game) despite not facing a top-four rushing QB. I will take a shot with Lance on a high-dollar team or two.
DeAndre Hopkins has flopped in consecutive weeks, posting 3-21-0 and 4-67-0. He is a big factor on why Kyler’s ownership stays low as no one wants to roster him right now. I have talked about the injuries and increase in viable options around him lowering his floor. He is going to be more susceptible to these worthless stat lines with so many mouths to feed.
With Kyler, we ideally want multiple rush TDs and 75-plus rush yards, which are negatively correlated to Hopkins, so don’t feel you have to always connect them. We constantly discuss being unique with lineup construction in tournaments, so if Nuk does flop you know that kills 70-90% of the Kyler teams. Again, we want him running, and if his TD passes go to the TE2 and WR4 it does not hurt us. All that said, I will have Kyler/Nuk stacks too, as I still think their ceiling games will likely be correlated. This may seem like a “tout hedge” but it is just how I am approaching it. I will have Kyler stacks with and without Hopkins.
You can apply the same logic at a higher level to A.J. Green, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore. Add in the TEs and RBs and this will be a revolving door week-to-week. Given Kyler’s rushing ability, they are even less critical to roster than Nuk on your Kyler stacks. I have no issue including them in your Kyler stacks if you MME, but other than Green, the usage and output is all over the place. They will all be very low owned, so they won’t have much impact on the slate regardless of how they perform.
Maxx Williams flashing for two big games makes the logic with the three WRs above even more sound. He has caught 15 consecutive passes from Kyler over a three-game stretch. He has been limited in practice, so check his status before putting him in your Arizona player group.
George Kittle should have gotten even more of a price reduction considering his production (TE10), but we continue to chase the upside despite him playing through a calf issue. His usage over the past two games (19 targets) does give him appeal but like Kyler I don’t think you need to jam Kittle and Deebo considering a big part of the appeal is rush production.
Note: Kittle missed Friday’s practice. Assuming he misses (he’s listed as doubtful), this bumps Deebo and makes Brandon Aiyuk a viable large GPP flier. Ross Dwelley should see more snaps and increased target share with this offensive scheme featuring the TE so heavily. SF only uses 3 WRs on 45% of plays.
Elijah Mitchell will rejoin Trey Sermon and Kyle Juszczyk in the 49ers backfield, which makes them all a fade for me.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
NYG +7 @ DAL, O/U 52
Implied team totals: DAL 29.5, NYG 22.5
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- The Giants are surprisingly eighth in yards per play, just behind Dallas in seventh. The difference is converting those yards (14th in total yards, eighth over their last three at 414 p/g) to points. New York is just 21st in points per game after 21 last week in NO.
- Dallas has led the league in plays with a lead throughout their three-game win streak, which has led to a 70% pass rate against.
- Dallas is rushing at the fifth-highest rate and seeing the second lowest runs against them, with teams passing at a 72.6% rate.
- Taking out Week 1 against Tampa Bay — the ultimate pass-funnel team — shows a totally different Dallas team than we thought we were getting. They have passed at a 43% rate in those games, which goes down to 36% if they get a 7 point and 25% at 8+ points.
- New York is league average in rush and a little below in pass DVOA.
- The Giants have allowed 27 or more points in three of four games, with the exception being against Atlanta.
- Other than the Chargers game, Dallas has been an offensive force, putting up 29, 36 and 41 points per game.
- Dallas is first in offensive rush DVOA, first in yards before contact, first in adjusted line yards per carry and first in RB YPC (5.69).
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Ezekiel Elliott went through veteran maintenance this week, and I am not worried about his questionable designation. His ownership projection is low, and I expect it to move up as Sunday approaches and people realize there is no injury issue. Zeke is tied for third in carries inside the 5-yard line (5), converting 4 for TDs. Teams continue to protect against Dak Prescott and the passing offense which has given Zeke new life, averaging 6.7 YPC in his last three.
Daniel Jones is QB6 this season and QB4 on the slate despite being the 12th-most expensive. If Jones didn’t struggle converting TD passes it would be higher; he has a 2.4% TD rate, which is one-third of Dak’s. Jones is third in QB rushing attempts (6.8%), which, along with two rush TDs, has offset the low TD pass rate.
Dallas has played a lot of man-to-man coverage and has been good, with Trevon Diggs getting the headlines with a 50% completion rate in coverage and all the interceptions, but Dallas has still allowed the third-most passing yards and seventh-most yards to WRs. They have also allowed 9 passing and 2 rush TDs.
Saquon Barkley saw a 16% target share last week and has seen his share of the Giants backfield work increase every week. He has gotten no help up front with the line at the bottom of adjusted line yards and yards before contact. New Orleans was a rough matchup, so he should find more success against the Cowboys (4.74 RB YPC), who have also allowed the most RB receptions (8 per game). The only negative I can find on him is his price has increased, but it is still reasonable considering the usage and talent.
Dalton Schultz has become a fantasy sensation, entering Week 5 as the TE4. He has led the team with a 36% and 28% target share in his last two games. The TDs won’t last but the usage is still enough at his price. The Giants have allowed 17.1 FPPG to TEs on 4 TDs. Schultz got a proper price increase on FD but at $4.4k on DK he is still a top value play at TE.
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Dak Prescott is averaging 33 pass attempts per game, down 11 from his four games last season. It is even more drastic when you take out the 58-attempt Tampa game (down to 25 pass attempts per game). He is still so efficient that we need exposure in GPPs in case Dallas is pushed and forced to pass (seventh in ANY/A and third in TDs despite being 20th in pass attempts).
New York has allowed a 75% competition rate against, and Dak is fourth in adjusted completion rate, per FTN Data (82.6%).
Both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are projected to be WR chalk as the second- and third-highest owned WRs in our ownership model. Given their new tendency to run and number of options on offense, I am not crazy about eating that ownership at the volatile WR position. They are less expensive but still not “cheap” by any means. James Bradberry continues to shadow outside WRs, so I assume he matches up primarily with Amari. Cooper does move in the slot for about a third of his snaps, and Bradberry does not normally travel inside. With Dallas using more 2-TE formations, both Cooper and Lamb are playing more outside in 2-WR sets with Cedrick Wilson playing the majority of slot snaps and targets.
The one issue with playing Jones is deciding who to stack him with. Both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are still OUT, which leaves us with Kenny Golladay (6-117-0 on 7 targets last week) and the two speedsters, Kadarius Toney (78% snap share in Week 4, led the team with a 25% target share) and John Ross (44% snap share, 19% target share in his debut).
I prefer Kenny G, but will get some exposure to Ross and Toney as WR3s in Jones and Dak stacks.
Evan Engram is also not going away, he saw 16% of targets and caught five of six but only picked up 27 yards. He is averaging nearly the same yards per catch as Zeke is per carry, so you will need a TD to be happy. I would only play him with Jones with that in mind in large field tournaments at what looks like a high ownership percentage.
Tony Pollard has received 41%, 26% and 29% of team rush attempts, which equals 11 carries per game. The issue is his passing work has been tied to script, seeing just one target in his last two games (7 in the two close games against LAC and TB). He is best in large-field GPPs only.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
NE -8.5 @ HOU, O/U 39.5
Implied team totals: NE 24 , HOU 15.5
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Houston is who we thought they were, 28th in points allowed and points scored. They are also 32nd in offensive and net yards per drive (-13.37).
- Houston is 31st in rush and eighth in pass DVOA. New England is also a run funnel, ranking second in pass and 29th in defensive rush DVOA.
- Despite a three-game losing streak, the Texans bring in the fifth-lowest neutral pass rate. They did crank it up at home when falling behind by a TD (80% pass rate).
- New England has allowed the third-highest rate of yards allowed to come via the rush.
- New England has passed at the third-highest overall rate (first neutral).
- Per Boston.com, Bill Belichick is 22-6 against rookie QBs in NE. It will likely be 23-6 with NE 4th in yards per play allowed and HOU 29th in yards per play on offense.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
We knew Damien Harris was script dependent and playing behind a rookie QB. Throw out the matchups with the Saints and Bucs, two of the better rush defenses this and last season (first and second in RB YPC allowed). Houston is 32nd in adjusted line yards allowed, which will be the best matchup Harris and this struggling run-blocking line (30th). New England totally abandoned the run last week and Tampa still ended up with his highest snap and route percentage. In two games against the Dolphins and Jets, Harris averaged 19.5 carries per game and 14.5 FPPG, which seems like a solid projection this week.
The New England DST is expensive, but they have shown us the ceiling we want in tournaments against their last matchup with a rookie QB, sacking and intercepting Zach Wilson 8 times (4 INT).
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
I don’t see a NE passing stack rising to the top of a GPP and don’t need to run back Brandin Cooks with my Damien Harris and Harris/NE-DST teams, though I do expect him to bounce back at home.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings]
DET +9.5 @ MIN, O/U 49.5
Implied team totals: MIN 29.5, DET 20
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Detroit has run 210 plays while trailing, the most after four weeks. As a result, they have faced the highest rush rate against.
- Detroit has allowed 6.6 yards per play (31st), Minnesota 6.1 (28th)
- Minnesota was 7-1 to the OVER at home in 2020, but are 2-0 to the UNDER this season.
- These teams run the sixth- (MIN) and eighth-most plays per game thanks to them both being in the top-10 in overall pace.
- Minnesota has passed a lot more this season (sixth in neutral rate), but showed us what they want to do if they get a lead of at least 8. In 18 plays, they passed at a 27% rate.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Dalvin Cook is a game-time decision. He only played 50% last week as he plays through the injury (so stupid), so we can fade him if he goes at his high price. It makes no sense given this is Detroit and Alexander Mattison is one of the more capable backup RBs. Obviously if Cook is scratched, Mattison gets elevated to cash game status. DET allowed nine RB TDs and over 31 FPPG on DK in four games.
Be sure to check the Sunday morning update, but expect Mattison to be in it if Cook is out at $6.5k (FD) and $5.5k (DK).
Justin Jefferson is one of my favorite receivers to come into the league, so I am a little biased when it comes to him. He checks all the boxes: target share, weighted opportunity, air yards percentage, etc. He has scored in three straight and has at least 65 yards in every game this season. It feels like he is very close to the monster 30 FP game he displayed last season. He is a top-three WR this week.
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
If you end up with Mattison in your main lineups, that puts Kirk Cousins in GPP-only territory, though a strong one considering DET is last in yards per pass attempts allowed and 30th in pass DVOA. He has 11 passing TDs in his last four against DET, including 6 last season without an INT. He is a smash play, if Detroit can put up enough points to keep MIN passing (that is a big “if”).
Adam Thielen only had one of those 11 TDs against DET, which is odd considering his TD efficiency with Cousins. I am not a huge fan; he feels like an expensive TE you play for a high red-zone usage at this point (71st average target distance), but it is DET so I will have some shares.
If you want to fade Thielen, I would consider Tyler Conklin in your Cousins/Jefferson stack. He has 14 targets in his last two and DET is (not surprisingly) dead last in DVOA against TEs.
D’Andre Swift continues to excel as a pass catcher, but Jamaal Williams has been the superior runner. Without their stud tackle (Frank Ragnow) and each other siphoning usage from one another, I am going to pass on both.
T.J. Hockenson still feels like he is the Lions player we “want” the most. He showed us the ceiling with 8-97-1 and 8-66-1 to start the season. He is in the MME bin with the way Detroit spreads the ball around.
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Football Team
NO -2.5 @ WAS, O/U 43.5
Implied team totals: NO 23, WAS 20.5
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- New Orleans has rushed at the highest rate this season (57.8%).
- New Orleans has allowed just 17.2 points per game (fifth); Washington is 30th at 30.5 PPG.
- WFT has run 72.5 plays per game, second most, and have passed at a 55% rate, a bit below league average.
- NO should push WFT into a higher pass rate with their tough run D. NO has seen the third-highest passing rate against. (66.7%).
- WFT has the 29th pass DVOA after finishing second in 2020.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Terry McLaurin should see Marshon Lattimore for about half of his snaps, but New Orleans has not shadowed any WR yet this season, including “alpha” WRs Davante Adams and DJ Moore. It’s been CB Paulson Adebo that teams continue to target on the other side (133 passer rating and 2.3 FP per target), including 145 yards in coverage last week against the Giants. McLaurin now has 11-107-1, 4-62-0, 6-123-2, and 6-75-0 in his four complete games with Taylor Heinicke, with so many vacated targets and NO funneling teams to the pass, he is a top WR play again.
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Ricky Seals-Jones can be utilized as a punt play at minimum price on DK and $4.9k on FD with Logan Thomas OUT. Dyami Brown and Cam Sims are out as well.
Curtis Samuel was a limited participant in Friday’s practice, with Brown/Sims were declared out. If reports are good on Samuel, I will be playing him at $3k on DK. He will be popular, but I am more comfortable playing a less expensive WR who is over 10%. Samuel played just 25 snaps last week and got 4 targets — if he gets more run with all the injuries he could pay off that min. salary rather easily.
Antonio Gibson is playing through a stress fracture in his shin — he says it is not a big deal and he can play with it, but I prefer my RBs with two healthy shins on a full slate, especially in a brutal matchup with New Orleans. I know every RB can get hurt on either play, but it will feel silly for me to tell you to play an injured RB and have him leave the game early. Gibson was also limited last week with a rib injury and still has to deal with the talented J.D. McKissic. If you are going to attack NO with your backs it is in the passing game, which is another strike against Gibson.
Sometimes we get credit for the plays we hit, but what about the fades? Alvin Kamara was a fade throughout the offseason and continues to be in DFS with his price (and ownership) remaining too high. He is not being used in the passing game — his presumed role as a receiver is why his price is so high. Even last week when he got a career-high 26 carries the lack of passing work, combined with no TDs left him with 12 FP. I like Kamara a lot as a player, I just view DFS like a stock market and his price-to-earnings ratio does not look great on the spreadsheet. Taysom Hill has three rushing scores in his last two games, which is another hit to Kamara’s ceiling.
For all of Washington’s issues defensively to open the year, they have been good against the run. They are allowing 3.55 YPC to backs (eighth), but they are allowing 14.8 receiving points per game to backfields (30th). Every signal is telling the Saints to throw the ball and use Kamara as a receiving asset here, so let’s see if Sean Payton delivers.
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
MIA +10 @ TB, O/U 48.5
Implied team totals: TB 29.25, MIA 19.25
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Like we identified last week, as a whole Miami is playing at a fast pace and is passing at a high rate.
- The Dolphins only converted 27% of their third downs and turned the ball over two times last week. They ran on 10-of-19 first-quarter plays and moved slowly (31-plus seconds per play), resulting in just 49 offensive plays in total.
They finally started hustling late (18 seconds per play in the fourth quarter) and passing heavy, which resulted in two second-half TD passes, but by then it was too late. - With that pathetic display last week, MIA is dead last in yards per play (4 YPP).
- Tampa Bay has faced the lowest rush rate, with teams dropping back on 73.8% of plays. They also pass at the second-highest rate (71%) overall thanks to passing at the highest rate with a lead.
- I can see this one being an ugly 40-24 type game that yields a ton of fantasy production from both sides — Tampa early and Miami late in garbage time.
- MIA Is 31st, TB 28th in opponent third-down conversion rate
- MIA is allowing their opponents 70.5 plays per game (30th).
- TB runs the seventh-most plays (67 per game). If TB gets 70 plays, you can count on over 400 total yards and 30-plus points. With Miami’s inability to run (29th offensive rush DVOA) and TB not allowing any rush production, MIA will have to pass again and try to match Jacoby Brissett against the GOAT. Yikes. Miami is going to get pounded.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Miami is 30th in explosive pass rate against, Tampa is fourth in explosive pass rate. Tom Brady is attempting 6.3 deep passes per game, averaging 339 passing yards and is the QB4 after an 11-FP stinker in a rainy Foxboro. He now has surpassed 300 passing yards in seven of his last 12 regular-season games. In the four games following the sub-300-yard performances, he has averaged 377 yards. He is a top-three QB on the slate with a solid case for QB1.
Antonio Brown looked great last week, catching 7-of-11 targets for 63 yards, just missing on a much bigger night on a couple close misses. AB appears to be “semi-chalk” this week at a low price on DK ($5.2k). I like the play, I like the player, but he is playing significantly fewer snaps than Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, which, combined with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the outside, gives Brown (17% slot rate) a fairly easy path to a bust.
Godwin has not been targeted much since Week 1 against Dallas, seeing 14% or less in three straight. I think that changes this week and he busts out against slot CBs Justin Coleman and Nik Needham. Per our advanced DvP tool, MIA has allowed 8 targets and 15 FPPG to slot receivers including a 5-77-1 line against Hunter Renfrow. In that LV game, MIA allowed 10-192-1 to LV slot receivers, with Waller and Ruggs moving inside to damage as well.
Mike Gesicki is the best play on MIA this week. The TE (more of a slot WR) has seen at least 20% of Brissett’s targets and would get a bump even higher if DeVante Parker sits. He has games of 10-86-0 and 5-57-1 in his last two, which has him as a top-12 TE — pretty remarkable after 3-36-0 in his first two games. TB allowed 7-46-2 to New England tight ends last week and are 25th in DVOA against the position. He is a top-three TE on the slate.
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
I can’t put all three TB WRs in the cash section, but I like Evans as well. Again, MIA has allowed the most 20-yard passing completions, and Evans is a home-run threat while also being a end-zone target machine, which should only increase with Rob Gronkowski OUT again.
It’s a great matchup for the TB RBs and I was all ready to roll out Leonard Fournette in cash games, but Giovani Bernard returned to a full practice Friday, which could make things dicier in the passing game. Ronald Jones is still alive and even vultured a TD last week on one of his six touches, and we have seen Bruce Arians troll us so many times with RBs that I just can’t put Lenny up in cash. I do think he is a strong play against this pitiful MIA rush D (second-most FP allowed to RBs on DK). I also think you can roll out RoJo with the TB DST in (very) large-field tournaments. If this gets out of hand, I could see them letting Jones get some run while their veteran backs rest.
Safety Antoine Winfield is OUT, as are Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting (IR). TB will get Jamel Dean back, which is big news for this struggling unit.
Jaylen Waddle cost me a ton of money last week and I am still asking myself how. How in such a good matchup can you complete three balls in the first quarter and then not go back to him again for the rest of the game? This week, I will be going back to the rookie in a great script and matchup against Ross “Don’t call me Dick” Cockrell in the slot. The veteran CB has allowed 12-104-2 in coverage on 17 targets and overall TB has allowed the sixth-most FP to slot WRs. The only thing that could screw that up is Parker being out and Waddle playing more outside. With their WR room so thin they may have to run more 12-personnel which would move Waddle outside.
DeVante Parker is questionable, first due to a shoulder injury and then a hamstring issue that came up late in the week (never a good sign). If he plays, he will get about 50% of his snaps in front of Dean, Richard Sherman for the other half. Parker leads the team with 6 RZ targets and has all three of the team’s goal-line targets so will be a big loss for an already outmatched team that is without Will Fuller.
Cameron Brate saw six targets in his first game with Gronk sidelined. At $3.3k and $5k (FD) he is firmly in play as the GOAT’s TE for the week. MIA has allowed 5-50 per game and 3 TDs to TEs.
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals
GB -3 @ CIN, O/U 50.5
Implied team totals: GB 26.75, CIN 23.75
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander is OUT, and Green Bay instantly becomes one of the worst CB groups in the league, which sets up well for this Bengals team and its three talented WRs. That is assuming Tee Higgins returns after a two-week absence (limited practice, looks on track to play).
- Joe Mixon is the other headline after missing practice this week. He is trending toward out as I write this.
- These teams are eighth and fifth in yards per play allowed, with Cincinnati eighth in points and Green Bay 19th.
- Green Bay is seventh in points per drive after leading the league last year.
- This sets up as a slow-paced game with both teams in the bottom five. That said, if Mixon is out, the Bengals may pass a bit more than their current 54% neutral rate. If Joe Burrow and friends can get out to an early lead that would be ideal for fantasy.
- Green Bay has passed at a 71% rate when they got behind by at least 7 points this season (57% neutral).
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Samaje Perine took 17 touches and turned them into 136 total yards and 2 TDs in Week 16 last season, and that was with Giovani Bernard playing the majority of snaps. Assuming Mixon misses, Perine should get the majority of snaps and RB touches with rookie Chris Evans mixing in. No other Bengals RB has seen the field this season, but I assume they will activate a third. Perine is at minimum price on DK, which should make him popular against this GB defense (4.59 adjusted line yards allowed per carry, 18th rush DVOA).
Davante Adams as been a mixed bag — two big games of 23 and 34 FP and two stinkers of 10 and 12. At his always-high ownership and price it has certainly been disappointing in those two weeks against NO and PIT but the (very) high usage rate (35.75% target share) keeps him a weekly candidate to finish as the WR1.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is OUT, which gives Adams a target share bump. There has been a good amount of research that shows the WR1 will actually absorb more of the vacated targets than the players that get playing time due to the circumstance. Chidobe Awuzie practiced in full so while outside I expect him to shadow Adams. He is solid but I don’t think it makes a bit of difference against a talent like Adams who will run a third of his routes from the slot which will put him in front of a struggling Mike Hilton.
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
With Tee Higgins rejoining Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd, this turns into a tough situation to handicap again. I am a big Tee stan, so I rank him and his goal line talents at the head of the pack (pun intended). While in the lineup, Higgins saw all of Joe Burrow’s goal-line targets.
Chase is the other player I want in my Burrow stacks, he is the home-run hitter, seeing nearly 50% of team air yards and in the top-12 in average target distance and yards per reception.
If Mixon is out, and against a talented GB offense, Burrow could be forced to open in up a bit more. Last season he averaged 40 attempts per game, which is down to 26.8 this season after his (season-high) 32 attempts against Jacksonville.
The main concern for this game as a stack is the pace and overall play volume, neither team is in a hurry so it will need to be driven by efficiency. Aaron Rodgers is in the same boat, averaging just 31 pass attempts. With neither QB running, we will need 300-plus yards and 3-4 TDs to end up as a top-QB on the slate. With Cincinnati fifth in overall DVOA and GB being on the road, I don’t see it happening this week.
Aaron Jones is dealing with an ankle issue, which led to AJ Dillon‘s usage spiking, matching Jones with 15 carries, posting 81 yards. I think he could do some damage in the passing game but at his price he is not someone I am targeting in a tough matchup, CIN ranks fifth in adjusted line yards and, per FTN Data, has the fifth-highest stuff rate.
C.J. Uzomah runs into another “plus” matchup against Green Bay, which has allowed the seventh-most receptions (25) and second-most receiving touchdowns (three) to opposing tight ends. Like the WRs, adding a target and red-zone hog like Higgins is going to create more week-to-week volatility. He is someone to keep in your TE player pool but is not a priority.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
TEN -4.5 @ JAX, O/U 48.5
Implied team totals: TEN 26.5, JAX 22
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Jacksonville ran a play every 31.7 seconds and passed at a 44.9% rate in Week 4 (49 neutral plays) after moving fast in Weeks 1-3 (22.9 seconds per play) & passing at a 59% pass rate (88 neutral plays).
- Tennessee has run the most plays per game this season (76.2) and 64 more than JAX
- TEN is 27th and JAX 29th in yards per play allowed and 26th (TEN) and 27th in points allowed.
- These teams are both bottom-10 in neutral pass rate.
- TEN is 31st and JAX 28th in pressure rate despite being 15th and 16th in blitz rate.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Derrick Henry is averaging 31.75 touches per game. LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 25.5 in 2006 when he won the MVP with 2,300 total yards and 31 TDs. Henry is on pace for 2,699 total yards (158.7 per game), which would break Chris Johnson’s record of 2,509 (156.8 per game). Not sure what analysis is needed for the King at this point other than keeping track of his receiving production. He has now surpassed his 2020 receiving yards total and is five catches away from the 19 he had last season. Jacksonville looks solid on paper against backs but has faced Houston, Cincinnati, Arizona and Denver; let’s reassess how good they are after dealing with the King.
Trevor Lawrence had his most efficient game in the pros last week (8.5 YPA), though it only yielded a QB22 finish due to the elevated rush rate and low pass attempts (24 after averaging 39 per game in Weeks 1-3). The other trend that stands out is his rushing usage, as he is getting designed runs called. After three attempts in his first two games, he has rushed 14 times in his last two for 63 yards and a score. Tennessee is the matchup that could unlock his ceiling after seeing them give up 297-2 to Zach Wilson. He is too cheap on FanDuel at $6.5k and can be rolled out in all formats.
A.J. Brown Week was delayed thanks to an injury, which cost me a lot of cash. Injuries suck, but they are part of playing DFS. This is why bankroll management is a real thing and something you should be doing. No matter how confident we are in a play, if he goes down in the first quarter, that is all she wrote for the day. I think Brown will be very low owned here with so many folks rostering the King and Brown returning from injury. Jacksonville is first in explosive rush rate against but 31st against the pass, allowing 44 FPPG to the position and Julio Jones is OUT once again.
Jacksonville is 31st in yards per target and 32nd in catch rate allowed. I love some Brown this week — he could be a slate breaker.
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Marvin Jones is going to bounce back after his flop on national TV. Like Lawrence, Jones runs into a great matchup with Tennessee allowing 43.4 FP p/g to WRs. Teams have targeted WR1s 9.7 times per game vs. TEN. The only reason I have him down here is his price — he is a bit too expensive to make an optimal lineup when you can go up $500 on either site and get to players like CeeDee Lamb, Chris Godwin and Brown.
James Robinson is in a great spot but comes with more risk with Carlos Hyde back in the lineup. It shouldn’t matter — JRob should keep getting all the usage — but clearly this coach is not the sharpest knife in the drawer. That does not mean I don’t like JRob in GPPs. JAX is run blocking well, and if they fall behind, he should be involved in the passing game. In the two games JAX has lost by 10-plus points, he is averaging 6 targets.
Schedule and a four-game sample can make DvP worthless unless you look into it and add strength to the opponent. Tennessee has faced TE targets this season from Gerald Everett, Mo Alie-Cox, Jack Doyle and Ryan Griffin (that’s the entire list). Dan Arnold should get more playtime this week in his second game in JAX and will benefit from D.J. Chark being out as well. He only played 32% of the team snaps, but that was more than everyone expected considering his plane had just landed. He only ran 9 routes but was targeted on 2 (24%) and both were +10 yards down the field, finishing with a 14.5 YPC average on his two grabs.
Laviska Shenault emerged without Chark, catching 6-of-7 targets for 99 yards, which led the team. He will be in my player pool with Lawrence, but I prefer Jones and Arnold.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
CLV +2 @ LAC, O/U 46.5
Implied team totals: LAC 24.25, CLV 22.25
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Cleveland continues to run heavy, 51.5% in neutral and moving at a slow pace (26th).
- Los Angeles passes at a 62.8% pass rate in neutral and moves at a top-12 pace.
- The Chargers have allowed the second-highest rate of yards gained via the rush.
- LA has allowed the fifth-most rush yards and 5.02 RB yards per carry (31st).
- Cleveland has gained the third-highest rate of yards gained via the rush.
- 81.82% of Cleveland’s TDs have come via the rush (1st).
- Cleveland is fourth, the Chargers seventh in points allowed. This is the only game featuring two top-10 DVOA defenses.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
N/A
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
If there is ever a game to unleash Nick Chubb, this would be it. LAC has invited teams to run and play underneath with their scheme which would play into the hands of Cleveland and this rush offense. I am guessing LAC will change it up a bit, knowing what Cleveland wants to do, but either way it is a plus matchup as laid out above. I wish his price would adjust more given Kareem Hunt’s usage and Chubb’s lack of targets, but that is why he is always so low owned (should be 2-4% this week) and thus a great GPP play as he can hit for 100 yards and multiple scores as easy as any back not named Henry.
Austin Ekeler should be featured in the passing game with CLE bringing pressure and Herbert likely checking down more than usual. CLE has been tough against the run, but Ekeler should still get 30-40 yards to supplement the passing work (20 targets and 2 TD receptions in his last three games).
Keenan Allen feels like the safest of all he plays on LAC. Troy Hill is a solid slot CB, but Allen continues to get the kind of volume you should be seeking out in cash games. He has 23 targets in his last two games and should be busy again Sunday.
If anyone can take a tough matchup and get 20 FP out of it, it’s Justin Herbert and these pass catchers, but we probably need more like 30 to win a GPP, and that may be a bit much to ask. I don’t think CLE is some shutdown defense we can never target, but I also don’t think they are the D that gets lit up to the point of making LAC the top stack on the slate. Herbert has regressed under pressure to a more normal level, actually below league average (22nd). His deep passing completion rate is 22nd and his ANY/A is 20th. I love the kid and can’t wait to watch this game from a football perspective, but it won’t be a heavily owned game for me in DFS. His ceiling came in KC, against an offense that pressed LAC to the finish, with the way CLE plays (2nd in time of possession, high rush rate and slow pace), I feel like this is a 24-20 type of game and the fantasy points are distributed around enough no player will “break the slate,” other than (hopefully) a low-owned Chubb.
We have seen Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson and Brandin Cooks come out with WR1 games against CLE, so I would use Mike Williams in your LAC GPP stacks. Coming off a down game I would assume LAC looks to get the big man heavily involved and he is such a nightmare matchup in the RZ that I don’t think CB/WR matchups matter with him.
Jared Cook is also fine if you are stacking Herbert, but I expect his usage to tail off some with Big Mike getting more targets in this game.
LAC has been a rough draw for QBs and WRs so I will fade Odell Beckham and Baker Mayfield.
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders
CHI +5.5 @ LV, O/U 44.5
Implied team totals: LV 25, CHI 19.5
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- LV is 8-1 to the OVER in their new stadium
- Chicago is going to play very slow and run heavy. They want to shorten the game for Justin Fields and make things as simple as possible. Hand the ball off, occasionally play-action pass, and make some plays with his legs. They passed at a comical 23.5% rate in neutral last week. If they fall behind it will be interesting TV as they clearly want nothing to do with the forward pass.
- Las Vegas has been playing faster and passing a lot more this season including last week against LAC (75%). The issue this week will be whether Chicago can score enough to keep Derek Carr and company airing it out.
- Akiem Hicks is OUT.
- Khalil Mack returned Friday to a limited status. He will probably give it a go, but I do not think he is going to be at full strength (51% & 48% snap rate last two games).
- At 4.1 yards per play, CHI is 31st, 0.1 better than MIA.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Damien Williams will be popular, and for good reason as laid out above. LV is getting gashed on 10-plus-yard runs per FTN Data (31st), giving up the most yards on those explosive runs (16% carries against the Raiders have gained 10-plus yards). Williams is a talented back who has shown a good ceiling while tied to Patrick Mahomes. This time he is appealing due to the offensive scheme and lack of options to cut into his usage in a great matchup.
Henry Ruggs is averaging 21.2 YPR and has averaged 83 YPG in his last three. Chicago will (try to) cover him with Duke Shelley (16-163 on 19 targets) and Kindle Vildor (7-123-2 on 8 targets). He is a GPP play, but a good one at minuscule ownership and immense upside. Per FTN Data, Chicago has allowed a 45% completion rate on deep targets which have resulted in 4 TDs. He is my favorite play on LV.
Hunter Renfrow has matched Waller with 21 targets in his last 3 games and will pick on Shelley in the slot (78% catch rate allowed in coverage, 126th). Renfrow has at least 5 catches and 45 yards in every game this season. He is a safe cash-game play at a reasonable price.
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Without Travis Kelce on the slate, you have to consider Darren Waller the top option, but this is DFS and top options come at a price in terms of ownership and price. Since the outlier performance in Week 1, he has 7 targets per game with modest “TE” type output, averaging 4.5-55 and a score over that three-game stretch. He has the highest raw projected output on the slate, but he is expensive and chalky and thus a pass for me on SE, 3-Max.
If I like three of his pass-catchers individually I need to get a few shares of Derek Carr with Williams as a runback in large-field GPPs. I don’t think this CHI secondary is very good and the high pass rate and full complement of weapons make Carr a 1-2% Milly Maker play.
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers
DEN +1.5 @ PIT, O/U 39.5
Implied team totals: PIT 20.5, DEN 19
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- I say it every week — if you are a 3-Max or SE player you can’t play everyone and you can’t stack every game. You need to cross players and games off, and this week, this is the one you start with. For you sickos that MME and want exposure to every game, carry on.
- These teams are a combined 0-8 to the UNDER this season. Denver games have finished 10.1 points UNDER the implied total, which is the “highest” this season.
- Both teams pass at a decent clip and both defenses push teams into the pass so that should keep up here (both teams are top-9 in rush DVOA).
- Teddy Bridgewater is questionable as he goes through the concussion protocol.
- Courtland Sutton rolled his ankle in Thursday’s practice and is now questionable as well. Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are both on IR, Deonte Spencer is questionable, and backup tight end Albert Okwuegbunam is OUT.
- PIT CB Cameron Sutton is OUT.
- Pittsburgh will have all three starting WRs healthy, but WR4 James Washington is OUT.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
If Courtland Sutton misses the game, Tim Patrick and tight end Noah Fant will be the last men standing and thus solid value plays, though I prefer them if Bridgewater is playing.
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Diontae Johnson is the only Steelers player I am considering in this one after catching 9-of-13 targets for 92 yards and a TD in his return. He is a target machine and thus matchup proof.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
PHI +3 @ CAR, O/U 45
Implied team totals: CAR 24, PHI 21
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
- Philadelphia is third in pace and eighth passing rate (neutral).
- The Panthers move slowly, 29th in pace and 25th in neutral pace. That has led to their opponents running the fewest plays, while they rank fifth in play volume.
- Carolina will need Philadelphia to score and push them the way Dallas did last week to get that high-end GPP output we want.
- Carolina is 1-3 to the under and 0-2 at home. They are now 3-7 to the UNDER with Matt Rhule at the helm.
- Unlike the recent past, Philadelphia is a run funnel, seeing the second-highest rush rate against.
- Philadelphia is fifth in yards per play and drive, yet 17th in scoring and 15th in points per drive. Usually when you see that it is a poor red-zone conversion rate or turnovers, but that is not the case with Philly.
Cash, Single-Entry, Three-Max Plays, High-Dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
With Christian McCaffrey almost certainly out again, DJ Moore is set up for another big workload. Moore grabbed 8-of-12 targets for 113 yards and two TDs last week (I thought he couldn’t score TDs?). Moore now has eight receptions in each of the past three games and is just one touchdown short of matching a career high. The Eagles are allowing the fourth-most points to WR1 options after being bludgeoned by Tyreek Hill. Prior to that beat down, they had been solid against wideouts, but it doesn’t matter with the usage and talent Moore has.
GPP/Multi-Entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
We have been on the Jalen Hurts train since it left the station, so it is a little annoying to see everyone start hopping on now that he is the QB3. Hurts made the optimal (again), the second time in three main slate games (31 and 28 FP). This is a tougher spot given the under-trends and the offensive line injuries. He has also received a price increase, putting him close to Tom Brady and Kyler Murray (who I prefer this week) on FanDuel.
I don’t mind a Sam Darnold stack with CMC out and him assuming the goal-line duties. He is the first Carolina QB to pass for 300-plus yards in three straight, so there is some upside even if (when) the rushing TDs dry up.
Darnold’s rushing scores and the emergence of Rodney Smith as the pass-catching back destroyed Chuba Hubbard last week. I don’t think we can assume the same usage moving forward, he is perfectly capable of handling a full workload.
DeVonta Smith is the alpha and the guy to connect with Hurts. He moves around the formation and Donte Jackson has not been good on a per-target basis anyway. He should also get to attack A.J. Bouye in the slot and Rashaan Melvin too, who have also been bad when looking at fantasy points per target.
Cash/SE Core
Core (FD): Jones – Henry – Lenny F. + $100 for Mattison if needed – Deebo – Toney – Jefferson (may pivot to DJ Moore in cash if Mattison is in) – Brate
Core (DK): Jones – Henry – D. Harris (can pivot to Mattison if Cook sits) – Deebo – Godwin – Curtis Samuel – Schultz – D. Williams
Stack strategy
I normally put full game stacks, but this slate is unique with so many one-sided stacks.
TB & MIN are tied with Dallas for the highest team totals on the slate at 30 points. I will have a ton of exposure to players from those three teams and will try to build stacks with some exposure from these teams.
MIA/TB
I have Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki on a lot of TB stacks, but also have some with no MIA exposure in case it is 35-10. If I only had one combo I would use Godwin/Brown, but I am also mixing in Brate and Mike Evans. I also have Brady-Lenny-DST stacks. The thought here is Brady throws for 300+ but spreads the TDs around and (if we get lucky) connects with Fournette for a passing TD. I have the same thing with RoJo also in VERY large-field tournaments. If they hang 30 in 3 quarters, I would think Rojo would clean up against a terrible MIA D.
DET/MIN
DeAndre Swift should get a ton of targets if that game shoots out or DET falls way behind, but I am also making “optimal” stacks, meaning take the stack targets from each game and then mix in the core and the plays listed below. Obviously, Davin Cook’s status is needed before we can finalize these stacks. I think Cousins/Mattison/JJ is a great way to stack it if Cook is out.
NYG/Dallas
I have this as a full game stack for the most part, but I also have some ZEKE/Dallas DST stacks.
SF/AZ is another full game stack, as is JAX/TEN.
I have Jalen Hurts stacked up with DJ Moore and either Dallas Goedert or (primarily) DeVonta Smith.
My player exposures (not in the core)
QB
- Kyler Murray
- Tom Brady
- Kirk Cousins (prefer Cook to be OUT)
- Jalen Hurts
- Trey Lance
- Trevor Lawrence
- Dak Prescott
RB
- Damien Harris
- Samaje Perine
- D’Andre Swift (I have moved onto Swift more since writing the article)
- Leonard Fournette
- Saquon Barkley
- James Robinson
WR
- Terry McLaurin
- Justin Jefferson
- Davante Adams
- A.J. Brown
- Henry Ruggs
- CeeDee Lamb
- Jaylen Waddle
- Hunter Renfrow
- Curtis Samuel (min price)
- John Ross
TE
DST
- TB is expensive and has not been playing well, but they are in a great spot against the Dolphins
- Saints are too cheap on DraftKings
- Patriots are too cheap on Yahoo
- Vikings, Dallas, Carolina are the value plays I am using most. I also have a few shares of the Chargers.
- Steelers & Broncos are also in play
Low(er) owned: Marvin Jones, Kareem Hunt, and Nick Chubb are solid low-owned one-offs in a great spot, Darnell Mooney is my preferred pivot from Damien Williams in the CHI/LV game. With Kittle OUT, Brandon Aiyuk is in a good spot to re-emerge. DeAndre Hopkins, James Conner (or Edmonds if he plays) are also guys I am using in the AZ/SF stacks. Lastly I have a Tannehill + AJB + Marvin stack.
