Freedman’s Week 7 fantasy football breakdown

We have six teams on bye around the NFL this week. I have no idea what I’m to do with all this free time.

In the main 10-game weekend slate, here are the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who stand out to me the most based on our expert rankings and fantasy projections as well as the Week 7 betting odds and our wealth of football content across FTN Fantasy, FTN Daily and FTN Bets.

Note: As NFL news breaks and Week 7 NFL inactives are announced Sunday morning, my perspective on some players in this piece may change. For my most up-to-date thoughts on players, consult our rankings.

To see all my Week 7 bets, check out our FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription.

Freedman’s favorite quarterbacks for Week 7

Below, I take a look at my favorite quarterbacks for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 7.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Houston)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 2
• Spread: -17.5
• Total: 47.5

We’re six games into the season, and Kyler Murray is a strong MVP frontrunner for the undefeated 6-0 Cardinals.

Check out our Prop Shop to find the best value for any player or team in any market at any sportsbook. Murray offers the most value in the MVP market at BetMGM and Caesars, where he’s +400.

With his league-leading 73.8% completion rate, Murray has passed for 1,741 yards and 14 touchdowns to four interceptions. He trails only Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford with his 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt. On top of that, Murray is 307116-3 rushing. 

Although he didn’t throw it all over the field last week (just 30 attempts), Murray was tidy and efficient (229 yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions) in a 37-14 statement win on the road against the Browns in poor weather without head coach Kliff Kingsbury (COVID-19).

It’s hard to say that any quarterback is playing better than Murray right now.

With his dual-threat ability, Murray is the No. 5 fantasy quarterback in the league with 25.5 DraftKings and 24.5 FanDuel points per game.

It’s not as if his top-tier performance this year is unexpected.

With his strong play to date, Murray has recaptured the MVP-caliber form he owned last year before suffering a shoulder injury in Week 11.

Prior to that season-altering event, Murray was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in the league with 31.4 DraftKings and 30.2 FanDuel points per game (per our Splits Tool).

Check out all the premium stats and tools we offer in our industry-leading FantasyHQ product.

Since last year, the Cardinals are 12-3 in the 15 games Murray has played without shoulder impairment. They’re 5-1 against the spread, and I think the Cardinals are undervalued in the futures market right now.

Murray and the Cardinals must be taken seriously — and their matchup is incredibly generous. The Cardinals have a slate-high spread of -17.5, and the Texans are No. 28 in defensive dropback success rate (53.0%, per Ben Baldwin’s RBs Don’t Matter website).

Quarterbacks can throw on the Texans, and Murray has developed into one of the league’s best passers: He’s No. 1 this year in composite expected points added and completion percentage over expectation (0.204, per Baldwin). He probably won’t need to throw much for the Cardinals to win — but, as we saw last week, he doesn’t require many pass attempts to accumulate fantasy points.

Under Kingsbury, the Cardinals are 3-6 ATS as home favorites — so that doesn’t inspire a superabundance of confidence in the team — but at home and as a favorite Murray is on the positive side of his notable splits.

• At home: 25.5 DraftKings points | 24.3 FanDuel points
• On road: 21.0 DraftKings points | 20.1 FanDuel points
• As favorites: 25.8 DraftKings points | 24.5 FanDuel points
• As underdogs: 21.6 DraftKings points | 20.7 FanDuel points

And in Murray’s nine games as a home favorite, he has averaged a scintillating 28.5 DraftKings and 27.3 FanDuel points.

Despite the large spread, I’m betting on the Cardinals.

As is the case most weeks, I expect Murray to be one of the top quarterbacks in my Week 7 DFS Cheat Sheets.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (vs. Atlanta)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 11
• Spread: +2.5
• Total: 47.5

Last week, Tua Tagovailoa returned to action from a ribs injury that had sidelined him since Week 2. He was without wide receivers Will Fuller (finger, IR), DeVante Parker (hamstring, shoulder) and Preston Williams (groin). And he was on the road in London.

If he had produced a mediocre performance, that would have been understandable. Instead, he had one of the best games of his career with 33-of-47 passing for 329 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and no sacks.

Granted, the Dolphins still lost, and Tagovailoa had this breakout achievement against the lowly Jaguars — but for the purposes of fantasy we don’t care if the Dolphins lose, and the Falcons are almost as bad as the Jags.

Whereas the Jags are No. 31 in defensive AY/A (9.5), the Falcons are No. 29 (8.6). While the Jags are No. 32 in pass-defense DVOA (50.4%), the Falcons are No. 30 (29.2%, per Football Outsiders).

If a quarterback can go off against the Jaguars, he can probably do it against the Falcons.

Investors might be looking to sell him high, but Tagovailoa is a hold in dynasty, and in managed leagues he is one of high-stakes savant Matthew Davis’ top Week 7 quarterback streamers.

Of all players widely available on waivers, Tagovailoa was my No. 1 quarterback priority this week.

Upside quarterbacks for Week 7

Here are some quarterbacks I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (at Tennessee): People are freaking out that Mahomes has thrown eight — EIGHT! — interceptions in six games. Of course, he also has a league-high 18 touchdowns passing and is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 28.0 DraftKings and 26.3 FanDuel points per game. The Titans are No. 27 in pass-defense DVOA (23.1%). Mahomes is the No. 1 quarterback in our Week 7 NFL Simulation Model.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Chicago): Brady is No. 1 in the league with 267 pass attempts, 183 completions, and 2,064 yards passing and No. 2 with 17 touchdowns, and he has three extra days of rest coming off Thursday Night Football.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (vs. Washington): Throw out Week 1, when the Packers suffered a hilariously horrifying 38-3 road loss to the Saints. Since Week 2, the Packers are 5-0 ATS and Rodgers is No. 1 in blended EPA and completion percentage over expectation (0.226). Against the Football Team, which has allowed a league-high 29.5 DraftKings and 27.6 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, Rodgers has a matchup to target.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati): Jackson is the best running quarterback in NFL history (63.4 yards per game), and this year he is passing better than he ever has (8.7 yards per attempt). Since his 2019 MVP campaign, Jackson is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 26.6 DraftKings and 25.4 FanDuel points per game.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Detroit): The Rams are the top NFC team in our official FTN Power Rankings. The Lions have allowed a league-high 10.2 AY/A, and Stafford is No. 2 among all quarterbacks with a 9.9 AY/A. This is a #RevengeGame for Stafford, whom the Lions traded away this offseason for Jared Goff and two future first-round picks, and Brooke Kromer likes the Rams to cover.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (at Las Vegas): In each of his nine full NFL starts, Hurts has at least 20 fantasy points. Underdogs have had the betting edge this season, especially road dogs (33-21 ATS), and Hurts might have an underappreciated edge traveling east to west. With his Konami Code rushing ability, Hurts has an extraordinarily high ceiling/floor combination.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (vs. Kansas City): Tannehill has regressed this year (9.2 AY/A in 2019-20 vs. 7.0 AY/A in 2021), but the Chiefs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks with 27.6 DraftKings and 25.6 FanDuel points per game. The over is 26-9-1 in Tannehill’s starts with the Titans. Tannehill is one of our top Week 7 Yahoo DFS plays.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at Miami): Ryan was horrible in Week 1 (164 yards, zero touchdowns), and that has colored our perspective of him for much of the season, but in the four games since then he has passed for 1,168 yards and 10 touchdowns to three interceptions with a 71.0% completion rate. He’s off the bye, No. 1 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (personal) has returned to the team, and the Dolphins last week were without starting perimeter cornerbacks Xavien Howard (shoulder, groin) and Byron Jones (Achilles, groin).

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (at LA Rams): “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge. What is a man, if his chief good and market of his time be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. Witness this army of such mass and charge, led by a delicate and tender prince, whose spirit with divine ambition puffed makes mouths at the invisible event, exposing what is mortal and unsure to all that fortune, death, and danger dare, even for an eggshell. Rightly to be great is not to stir without great argument, but greatly to find quarrel in a straw when honor’s at the stake. Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”

Freedman’s favorite running backs for Week 7

Below, I take a look at my favorite running backs for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 7.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (vs. Washington)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 3
• Spread: -7.5
• Total: 48.5

Aaron Jones doesn’t have an overwhelming positive matchup. The Football Team has allowed a middle-of-the-road 25.6 DraftKings and 23.6 FanDuel points per game to running backs. And Washington is No. 7 in defensive rush success rate (36.0%).

But I doubt that will actually matter for Jones, who is on the positive side of the home/away splits he has exhibited since becoming the lead back in 2019.

• At home: 21.4 DraftKings points | 18.9 FanDuel points
• On road: 18.6 DraftKings points | 16.2 FanDuel points

With quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are 64-36-4 ATS at home, and the over at Lambeau Field is 57-48. 

As significant favorites, the Packers should be able to put up points against a Washington defense that ranks No. 30 in EPA per play (0.166), and that should result in fantasy production for the team’s lead back.

And given that Jones is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league (7.2 yards per target this year), it doesn’t hurt that the Football Team is No. 30 in pass DVOA against running backs (45.4%).

In Week 1, when the Packers suffered a burn-the-tape 38-3 road loss to the Saints, Jones had just five carries and two targets. Forget Week 1.

In the five games since Week 2, Jones is 78-376-2 rushing and 19-153-4 receiving on 21 targets.

Yes, it’s annoying for Jones investors that he will likely lose some opportunities to No. 2 back AJ Dillon — but can you really complain about a guy getting over 100 yards and a touchdown on 15.6 carries and 4.2 targets per game? 

Also, like a donkey, I’m betting on the Packers to cover.

Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs (at Tennessee)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 10
• Spread: -5.5
• Total: 57.5

Filling for starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee, IR), Darrel Williams was a Week 6 DFS superstar with 21-62-2 rushing and 3-27-0 receiving on four targets.

Did he look good? No. He looked like a small pass-catching fullback forced to play halfback — because that’s basically what he is.

But when a guy gets 25 opportunities — including three carries inside the 5-yard line — it doesn’t really matter if he looks good.

I doubt that No. 3 back Jerick McKinnon will push Williams for snaps and opportunities. Even though the Chiefs won last week 31-13, McKinnon saw relatively little usage.

• Darrel Williams (Week 6): 59 snaps | 21 carries | 29 routes | four targets
• Jerick McKinnon (Week 6): 23 snaps | 3 carries | 16 routes | four targets

As long as Edwards-Helaire is out, Williams is no worse than a high-end fantasy RB2.

Although Williams is the backup, he has 100% of the backfield’s carries inside the five-yard line, so he’s locked in as the goal-line guy, and for a big back (he’s listed at 5-foot-11, 219 pounds, but he looks significantly bigger) Williams is an above-average receiver with a 74.2% catch rate and 6.2 yards per target for his career.

In his six career games with at least 10 carries and a target, Williams has gone over 50 yards five times and scored five touchdowns.  

And I’m willing to bet he sees more than eight carries and a target this weekend.

In this week’s episode of Betting With Brooke and Benny, Brooke Kromer likes the Chiefs to cover and Benny Ricciardi likes the over.

If the Chiefs cover and the over hits, we could see a second straight multi-touchdown performance from Williams this week.

Upside running backs for Week 7

Here are some running backs I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (vs. Kansas City): Henry has career-high marks this year with 27.0 carries, 2.7 targets, 29.3 DraftKings, and 25.5 FanDuel points per game. The Chiefs are No. 31 in rush-defense DVOA (6.8%). Oh my. Henry is No. 1 in Tyler Loechner’s fantasy trade value chart and Jeff Ratcliffe’s Week 7 fantasy football flex rankings. 

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Detroit): In his five games this year, Henderson is 81-372-4 rushing and 12-119-1 receiving on 16 targets — and he has missed significant time in two games to injury. The Lions are top-two in most fantasy points allowed to running backs with 33.5 DraftKings and 29.6 FanDuel points per game. Last week, Henderson was a “good process, good outcome” DFS play in single-entry tournaments.

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Chicago): Fournette has enjoyed a nice bump in playing time over the past three weeks with his 69% snap rate, which he has leveraged into 54-240-3 rushing and 13-136-0 receiving on 16 targets. Fournette could see significant usage as a double-digit home favorite, and he is one of our top Week 7 SuperDraft DFS plays. 

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons (at Miami): Patterson is a top-four fantasy back with 20.4 DraftKings and 17.9 FanDuel points, and in the Week 5 London game he had a season-high 59% snap rate, 14 carries, and nine targets. If head coach Arthur Smith didn’t dedicate the Week 6 bye to concocting more ways to get Patterson the ball, he should be terminated.

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers (at NY Giants): Hubbard once again will start in place of Christian McCaffrey (hamstring, IR). In his four games as the lead back, Hubbard has averaged 16 carries and four targets, and the Giants are No. 27 in rush-defense DVOA (-3.9%). Hubbard is one of our Week 7 “Tenacious Targets” for DFS tournaments.

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (at LA Rams): Even as a timeshare back on an 0-6 team, Swift still has 509 yards and 4 touchdowns on 65 carries and 42 targets, and he leads the league in high-value touches.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (vs. NY Jets): The Patriots are significant home favorites, so Harris could see extended usage, and he has either 100 yards or a touchdown in each of his four games with 10-plus carries. Harris is one of our top Week 7 NFL DFS value plays.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Houston): The Cardinals are likely to have a run-leaning game script as massive home favorites, and Conner leads the team with 79 carries overall and seven carries inside the five-yard line (per our Advanced Rushing Stats Tool). Against the Texans, who are No. 29 in rush-defense DVOA (-0.2%), Conner has a strong offensive line-vs.-defensive line matchup.

Devontae Booker, New York Giants (vs. Carolina): Starter Saquon Barkley (ankle) did not practice ednesday, so he could miss another week of action. In his two games as the lead back, Booker has averaged 14 carries and four targets.

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons (at Miami): Davis has 15-plus opportunities in every game this year, and the Dolphins are top-four in most fantasy points allowed to running backs with 31.7 DraftKings and 26.5 FanDuel points per game.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles (at Las Vegas): After averaging 4.5 carries and 3.5 targets in Weeks 3-4, Sanders has 10 carries and 4.5 targets per game over the past two weeks. Sanders is a buy-low candidate.

J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team (at Green Bay): “Don’t be angry, don’t be sad, don’t sit crying over good times you’ve had. There’s a girl right next to you, and she’s just waiting for something to do. And there’s a rose in a fisted glove, and the eagle flies with the dove. And if you can’t be with the one you love, honey, love the one you’re with.”

Michael Carter, New York Jets (at New England): After a nondescript Week 1, Carter has averaged 10.75 carries and three targets per game and should be fresh off the Week 6 bye. It’s not hard to imagine that the Jets will want to rely on the run after quarterback Zach Wilson’s four-interception performance against the Patriots in Week 2.

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (vs. Washington): Dillon has 10-plus opportunities in each of the past three games, and he could see extra work as a sizable home favorite. He’s one of our top Week 7 deep fantasy sleepers.

Jaret Patterson, Washington Football Team (at Green Bay): Starter Antonio Gibson (shin) missed practice on Wednesday after being forced from Week 6 early, and he’s uncertain for Week 7. If Gibson is out, Patterson would have a shot to play as the early-down back. Patterson was the No. 1 running back priority in Vlad Sedler’s Week 7 FAAB breakdown. 

Freedman’s favorite wide receivers for Week 7

Below, I take a look at my favorite wide receivers for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 7.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (vs. Washington)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 1
• Spread: -7.5
• Total: 48.5

Once again — a blurb on Davante Adams: “A wedding in Hawaii. Real original!”

In the 2016-20 half-decade timeframe, Adams averaged 1,127.8 yards and 11.6 touchdowns receiving on 91.6 receptions and 136.6 targets in 14.2 games per year. For that five-year period, Adams was the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 20.3 DraftKings and 16.1 FanDuel points per game (min. 12 games per year).

He’s the best receiver in the league and has been for longer than many people appreciate.

Despite a terrifying 38-3 Week 1 road loss to the Saints that had everyone questioning everything they thought they knew about the Packers, Adams has more or less been his typical self in 2021: He’s No. 1 in receptions (46) and yards (668) and No. 2 in targets (66).

He has just two touchdowns on the year — but getting touchdowns has never been a problem for Adams. Where there are targets, receptions, and yards, the touchdowns will follow.

As for the matchup, the Football Team is No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers with 47.3 DraftKings and 38.4 FanDuel points per game.

Here comes the catalog.

Adams has the highest ceiling projection among all wide receivers in our new state-of-the-art optimizer. He’s the No. 1 wide receiver in our NFL Exposure Projections and Kyle Murray’s DFS Model.

Adams is one of Javier Prellezo’s “Must Jav” Week 7 DFS plays.

Yeah, yes, sure, why not? — I’m betting on the Packers.

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants (vs. Carolina)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 21
• Spread: +3
• Total: 43

No one ever wakes up thinking, “Today, I shall write a highlighted blurb on Sterling Shepard,” but such is the excitement of life.

I’ll not romanticize him: Shepard isn’t a sexy player. He bores me to no end.

But he has several factors in his favor.

First, the Giants seem likely to be without wide receivers Kenny Golladay (knee) and Kadarius Toney (ankle) and running back Saquon Barkley (ankle), all of whom are yet to practice this week. In their absence, Shepard is likely to see more usage and serve as the team’s No. 1 receiver.

Second, Shepard has enjoyed heavy target volume this year anyway: In his three full games, he has drawn 9, 10, and 14 targets, which he has leveraged into 26-283-1 receiving.

Third, Shepard can line up all over the formation with his inside/outside versatility, which will give the Giants more opportunities to scheme the ball to him.

Fourth, I like his matchup against cornerback A.J. Bouye in the slot, where he will likely run most of his routes. As an every-down player over the past two weeks, Bouye has allowed 17-148-0 receiving on 20 targets. 

Just last week, the Panthers allowed all three Vikings wide receivers to go off.

• Adam Thielen: 11-126-1 receiving | 13 targets
• Justin Jefferson: 8-80- receiving | 14 targets
• K.J. Osborn: 6-78-1 receiving | 7 targets

This is life.

Upside wide receivers for Week 7

Here are some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (at Tennessee): Hill is having another typically terrific season with 46-592-5 receiving on 63 targets and 4-45-0 rushing. The Titans have allowed a league-high 51.5 DraftKings and 42.3 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers. Hill is a Week 7 slate breaker.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Detroit): Kupp is the No. 1 wide receiver in expected fantasy points, and he has a good matchup with slot cornerback A.J. Parker (per our WR/CB Matchups Tool) — an undrafted rookie who has allowed an 87.5% catch rate and 9.2 yards per target. At least right now, Kupp is the No. 1 wide receiver in my rankings.

DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers (at NY Giants): Moore has eight-plus targets and 70-plus yards receiving in 5-of-6 games, and the Giants are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers with 44.0 DraftKings and 35.7 FanDuel points per game.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (at Green Bay): McLaurin (hamstring) is dealing with a soft-tissue injury, which likely contributed to his season-worst 4-28-0 receiving performance last week, but he has 53 targets in his five full games with quarterback Taylor Heinicke, and the Packers are without No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder, IR). Benny Ricciardi is betting on the Football Team.

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (at Miami): Ridley (personal) missed the Week 5 London game and then was on bye last week, so he has been out of mind for a while, and he has marginally disappointed this year with 27-255-1 receiving, but he has 42 targets in four games. The Dolphins are No. 27 in pass-defense DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (28.0%), and cornerbacks Xavien Howard (shoulder, groin) and Byron Jones (Achilles, groin) are both trying to play through multiple injuries. I’m high on Ridley relative to the expert consensus. 

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Detroit): The Rams offense is No. 1 in dropback EPA per play (0.373), and the Lions defense is No. 32 (0.364). Woods’ ceiling has been capped by the emergence of teammate Cooper Kupp, but his high floor is intact, as he has either 70 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in 5-of-6 games.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (vs. Kansas City): Brown (illness) missed practice Wednesday and Thursday but is still expected to suit up against the Chiefs, who are No. 31 in pass-defense DVOA (31.9%). Brown last week hit season-high marks with nine targets, seven receptions, and 91 yards and is one of our top Week 7 FanDuel DFS plays.

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (at Baltimore): Chase is No. 3 in the league with 13.5 yards per target (min. 20 targets) and No. 4 with five touchdowns receiving. He has 90-plus yards or a touchdown in 5-of-6 games. Chase will match up most with cornerback Anthony Averett, a backup-turned-starter injury fill-in allowing 9.0 yards per target this year.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (at Arizona): Cooks has elite volume with 9.5 targets per game and is No. 1 in the league with a 51.7% market share of his team’s air yards and 86.4% WOPR (per our Air Yards Tool). 

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight. It combines market shares of targets and air yards.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (vs. Atlanta): Wide receivers DeVante Parker (shoulder, hamstring) and Preston Williams (groin) are tentatively expected to return to action this week, so Waddle probably won’t see the 13 targets he got last week in London, but he still should benefit from the absence of teammate Will Fuller (finger, IR). Waddle seems to have a better connection with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (7.2 yards per target) than backup Jacoby Brissett (5.4 yards per target), and against the Falcons he gets a clear matchup upgrade (per Jeff Ratcliffe’s Week 7 WR/CB matchups breakdown). 

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (at Las Vegas): Smith has been a feast-or-famine producer this year with 20-270-1 receiving with a two-point conversion in his three games with at least eight targets and 7-75-0 receiving in his three games with no more than seven targets. Smith has the consistent usage to warrant weekly starts. 

Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets): “They say there’s a heaven for those who will wait. Some say it’s better, but I say it ain’t. I’d rather laugh with the sinners than cry with the saints. The sinners are much more fun: You know that only the good die young.”

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Mooney leads the Bears with 39 targets, 25 receptions, and 306 yards receiving, and the Buccaneers are without cornerbacks Carlton Davis (quad, IR), Sean Murphy-Bunting (elbow, IR), and Richard Sherman (hamstring). Mooney is one of Chris Meany’s Week 7 starts (sponsored by TopProp).

Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Houston): In his past two games, Moore has earned season-high 48% and 56% snap shares, which he has leveraged into 10 targets and six carries for 123 yards. With 10.2 yards per target and 6.7 yards per carry, Moore is a big play waiting to happen.

Mecole Hardman. Kansas City Chiefs (at Tennessee): The Titans are Nos. 28 and 30 in pass-defense DVOA against No. 2 and supplementary wide receivers (31.8%, 33.1%), and the Chiefs are No. 1 in our Week 7 NFL Stacking Model.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (at LA Rams): Wide receivers Tyrell Williams (concussion, IR) and Quintez Cephus (collarbone, IR) are out, and St. Brown has been the team’s No. 1 wide receiver with 23 targets and a 74% snap rate over the past three weeks. While the Rams are reputed to have an elite defense, they are No. 22 in dropback success rate allowed (51.0%).

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati): Bateman tied for a team-high six targets last week in his NFL debut, and this week he was one of Joe Metz’s top waiver wire targets.

Freedman’s favorite tight ends for Week 7

Below, I take a look at my favorite tight ends for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 7.

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Philadelphia)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 3
• Spread: -6.5
• Total: 46.5

After his 19-target Week 1 performance on Monday Night Football, Waller has underwhelmed (relatively) with 23-273-1 receiving on 34 targets in his past five games — but he still leads all tight ends with 53 total targets, 43 first-read targets, nine red-zone targets and four end-zone targets (per our Advanced Receiving Stats Tool).

And last year, Waller — not Travis Kelce — was the No. 1 tight end with 1,309 air yards, 579 yards after the catch, a 28.6% target share, and a 61.4% WOPR.

The Eagles are No. 8 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends with 17.0 DraftKings and 13.7 FanDuel points per game, and their linebackers in particular have been poor in coverage this year, allowing an 88.9% catch rate and 8.3 yards per target in their coverage.

With his elite usage, Waller is the No. 1 tight end with 90.8 expected fantasy points. He has an incredibly high ceiling with his career mark of 8.4 yards per target, and he has a strong floor with 50-plus yards receiving in every game but one.

Waller is one of Chris Meaney’s top Week 7 DFS plays.

Check out the FTN Network Las Vegas giveaway, which includes Raiders tickets, hotel, travel and more.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team (at Green Bay)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 9
• Spread: +7.5
• Total: 48.5

The thesis for playing Ricky Seals-Jones is simple.

No. 1 tight end Logan Thomas (hamstring, IR) is out. As an in-game injury fill-in, Seals-Jones had a 93% snap rate in relief of Thomas in Week 4 — and then in Weeks 5-6 he played every available snap but one as the starter.

With his every-down role, Seals-Jones has essentially been a one-for-one Thomas replacement, ranking No. 1 on the team with nine receptions, 99 yards, and one touchdown receiving and No. 2 with 14 targets and 62 yards after catch over the past two weeks.

And for the season he’s No. 1 on the Football Team with five red-zone targets and No. 2 with three end-zone targets.

The Packers are No. 26 in pass-defense DVOA against tight ends (22.1%). Bang a gong.

Tight end ranking tends to be fairly homogenous, but FTN is relatively high on Seals-Jones compared to the industry consensus.

Upside tight ends for Week 7

Here are some tight ends I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (at Tennessee): The Titans are No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends with 7.3 DraftKings and 5.7 FanDuel points per game — but we’re talking about Zeus here. The matchup doesn’t matter.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati): Andrews is the No. 3 tight end with 18.1 DraftKings and 14.3 FanDuel points per game, and he leads the Ravens with 44 targets and 34 receptions. The Bengals have benefitted from a soft tight end schedule, but the one player they’ve faced comparable to Andrews — T.J. Hockenson, last week — just went off against them with 8-74-0 receiving on 11 targets.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (at Miami): No rookie tight end in the modern era (since 1970) has had more receiving yards through the first five games of the season than Kyle Pitts has with 308. Coming off the bye, he could be primed to explode.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (vs. Atlanta): In Week 1, Gesicki had just three targets on 21 snaps. #Outlier. Since Week 2, he has averaged eight targets on 45.8 snaps per game. Gesicki will be justifiably popular in Week 7 single-entry DFS tournaments.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (at Las Vegas): Joe Walsh without Don Felder. He finally has all the guitar solos to himself. Goedert is one of our top Week 7 DraftKings DFS plays.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Detroit): Higbee played 100% of the snaps last week, and the Lions are No. 32 in pass-defense DVOA against tight ends (51.2%).

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Houston): The Texans are top-four in fantasy points allowed to tight ends with 18.7 DraftKings and 15.7 FanDuel points per game, and I could see the Cardinals giving Ertz some extra stat-padding targets as a “welcome present” in his first game with the team. Ertz was the No. 1 tight end in Jeff Ratcliffe’s Week 7 waiver wire rankings.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (at Tampa Bay): Kmet has an 87% snap rate and 19.5% target share over the past four weeks with quarterback Justin Fields. Kmet is streamable.

C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals (at Baltimore): Uzomah has more than three targets in just one game, but the Ravens are top-three in fantasy points allowed to tight ends with 19.7 DraftKings and 15.2 FanDuel points per game.