Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We’re on to Week 12, and we’ve got a smaller DFS main slate than usual. Six teams will be in action on Thanksgiving, while the Cardinals and Chiefs are both on bye. That leaves a lot of high-powered offenses unavailable on the 10-game main slate.
Let’s check out some of the players who are jumping out at me on DraftKings early in Week 12.
Quarterback
Top Play
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos ($6,600)
Herbert is coming off one of his best outings of the season last week against the Steelers. He racked up 382 passing yards and three touchdowns to go along with 90 rushing yards. He finished with 38.28 DraftKings points, and he’s scored at least 34.64 in two of his past three games.
Herbert draws a solid matchup this week against the Broncos. They rank 17th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and there are reasons to believe they’ll be worse in that department down the stretch. They traded away an impact defender in Von Miller, and they allowed 30 points and 386 yards in their last outing.
Herbert grades out favorably this week in our NFL Optimizer. He owns the fourth-highest points-per-dollar projection at the position, and he also owns the fourth-highest raw points projection.
Other Options
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins ($5,600)
There are plenty of strong options if you’re paying down at the position this week, but Newton might be the best. He wasted little time making an impact for the Panthers, finishing with 26.16 DraftKings points in his first start. He remains a dangerous option with his legs, tallying 46 rushing yards and a touchdown on 10 carries last week. That rushing upside makes him massively underpriced against the Dolphins.
Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans vs. New York Jets ($5,300)
Taylor is even cheaper than Newton, and he checks a lot of the same boxes. He’s also capable of picking up some fantasy points with his legs, and he owns the top points-per-dollar projection in our NFL Optimizer. Taylor also benefits from an elite matchup against the Jets, who have been an atrocity on defense. They’ve allowed the most points and yards per game this season, so they unsurprisingly rank dead last in defensive DVOA.
Running Back
Top Play
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams ($5,900)
Dillon drew his first start of the year last week in place of Aaron Jones, and he did not disappoint. He racked up 53 rushing yards on 11 carries, and more importantly, he caught all six of his targets for 44 yards. He finished with 15.7 DraftKings points, continuing his track record of excellent production in games in which he sees at least 30 snaps:
Dillon draws a tough matchup this week against the Rams, but he’s simply too cheap if Jones is out again.
Other Options
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers ($5,800)
On the other side of that matchup, Henderson also stands out as underpriced. He trails only Dillon in terms of points-per-dollar projection in our NFL Optimizer, and he’s been a consistent source of value all year. He’s been in a slump recently, scoring 9.4 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four matchups, but he’s scored at least 15.7 DraftKings points in every other contest this year. The Packers rank just 26th in rush defense DVOA this season, so this is the perfect spot for Henderson to get right.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins ($9,000)
McCaffrey has wasted little time reacclimating himself to the Panthers’ offense following a stay on the IR. He’s scored at least 24.9 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, thanks to his insane receiving workload out of the backfield. He’s racked up 17 catches on 18 targets over that time frame, which gives him a massive floor and ceiling on a weekly basis. The Dolphins are mediocre at defending running backs in the passing game, so expect more of the same from McCaffrey in Week 12.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams ($8,600)
If Jones is out, Adams becomes a slam-dunk option at just $8,600 against the Rams. Adams wasn’t the target hog most expected last week — he racked up just eight against the Vikings — but that didn’t stop him from finishing with seven grabs for 115 yards and two touchdowns. Overall, Adams’ body of work in games without Jones since 2019 is extremely impressive:
I don’t know about you, but I’ll gladly take 33.8 DraftKings points from my top receiving option.
Other Options
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,600)
Pittman is coming off a subpar performance last week, but that tends to happen when one of your teammates scores five touchdowns. Assuming that Jonathan Taylor comes back to reality this week, Pittman should be able to pick up the slack. He’s blossomed into the Colts’ clear top receiver this season, racking up 23% of their targets and 31% of their air yards. Pittman’s salary has decreased by -$700 from its peak, making him a prime buy-low target.
Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons ($4,400)
This is a massive week for all the Shenault bros on Twitter. If he can’t find success this time, it may be time to officially cut bait. The team lost Jamal Agnew last week to a season-ending injury, and D.J. Chark was already out for the season with an injury. That leaves just Shenault and Marvin Jones to handle most of the receiving snaps. The Falcons rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA, so this is the perfect combination of opportunities and matchup for Shenault.
Tight End
Top Play
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts ($4,400)
Gronkowski returned to the Bucs lineup in Week 11, and he showed no signs of rust. He racked up eight targets on 46 snaps and ultimately finished with six catches for 71 yards. Gronkowski has been highly involved when he’s been able to suit up this season, dominating in his full games:
He’s underpriced in an elite matchup against the Colts, who have been torched by opposing tight ends this season. They’ve allowed a league-high 9.1 targets per game to the position, resulting in an average of 64.1 yards per game.
Other Options
Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons ($4,000)
Arnold is another player who could see a boost in targets this week for the Jaguars. He’s coming off his worst game with the team last week, finishing with zero targets, but that game is clearly a major outlier. He had recorded at least seven targets in each of his previous three games, and he scored at least 10.0 DraftKings points in each of those contests.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,100)
On the other side of that matchup, Pitts has some appeal as a buy-low target. He struggled last week against the Patriots, but Bill Belichick is notorious for taking away opposing team’s top targets. He shouldn’t have the same issues this week against the Jaguars, who rank 30th in DVOA against opposing tight ends this year. Pitts should continue to see an increased workload with Calvin Ridley out of the lineup, and he has one of the top ceilings at the position.
