Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 17 of the 2021 NFL football season is days away, and it’s time to fine-tune your fantasy lineups. This includes hunting for solid flex players and sleepers that can pop off and help you win the game.
Each week during the NFL season, this article will highlight some deep sleepers for you to consider when setting lineups. You’ll never see Tier 1 players mentioned in this article, as I’ll look to unearth legitimate deep sleepers — players either low-rostered or rarely started.
Here are some of the deep sleepers you should keep an eye on for Week 17.
Week 17 QB Sleepers
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
A broken clock is right twice a day — and that very well may be what ends up happening with the “Trey Lance, league-winner” takes from last summer. Lance has only started one other game this season, and while he didn’t break fantasy then, he did show the tantalizing fantasy upside with 16 rush attempts for 89 yards. He played a half of another game and threw for 157 yards and 2 TDs while adding 41 rushing yards on 7 attempts, That’s high-end Lamar Jackson-esque rushing equity. Jimmy Garoppolo still reportedly has a chance to get cleared to play this weekend, so keep an eye out, but if he sits, Lance has sky-high ceiling.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins’ seven-game streak with at least two TDs came to an end last week, but he still threw for over 300 yards and a score. For what it’s worth, he added 17 rushing yards last week and now has over 10 rushing yards in three straight. (Disclaimer: We’re not saying Cousins is a scrambler now, but three is a trend and we’re in the trend-pointing-out business.) Cousins should find his way back to the multi-TD boat in Week 17 against the Packers, who have allowed 1.8 pass TDs against per game and the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs overall. Cousins ripped this defense for 341 yards and 3 TDs in Week 11.
Week 17 RB Sleepers
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
Are we finally seeing the version of Rashaad Penny Seattle saw when they drafted him in the first round of the 2018 draft? Penny ripped a 16-137-2 rushing line three weeks ago, followed by a ho-hum 11-39 line two weeks ago, but he bounced back with a 17-135-1 line just last week. He 100-yard, 1-TD barrier should be firmly in his sights this week against the Lions, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs this year. The Lions have allowed the third-most yards after contact on rush plays this year. Penny ranks second-best among RBs (min. 70 rushes) in yards after contact per attempt (3.82) — just behind Jonathan Taylor (3.83).
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
Melvin Gordon’s stat line last week is incredible in the worst possible way — 7 attempts for -4 rushing yards — but the important thing is that the full-on backfield split between Gordon and Javonte Williams remains intact. Williams also only had 7 rush attempts last week. The week before, both players had 15 attempts. It’s like the Broncos think there’s some magic formula of winning that includes both players getting equal touches. We can at least use the weird backfield split to our advantage for now. Gordon (and Williams) are good plays in Week 17 against the Chargers, who rank in the bottom five in fantasy points allowed to RBs on the year.
Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles
Not a single person in the world wants to play Jordan Howard, but he’s a good play in Week 17. Miles Sanders is ruled out, leaving Howard to split the backfield with Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. Scott and Gainwell will both (or maybe just one of them) have sizable rolls in Philly’s run-happy offense, but Howard’s role as the early-down bruiser and goal-line back are not likely to be tested. If anything, the absence of Sanders creates a few additional opportunities per game.
One note: Howard missed practice Wednesday with a stinger, and Gainwell was limited with an ankle issue. The Eagles added Kerryon Johnson to the practice squad Wednesday as insurance, meaning there’s a scenario where Scott is the only one of the main group who is available, and then he becomes very interesting.
Week 17 WR Sleepers
Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo Bills
This one is risky, but the upside is big. We can’t pretend there’s not an element of point-chasing here, but Isaiah McKenzie just popped off for 11 catches, 125 yards and a TD in an explosive offense that is unsettled at WR behind Stefon Diggs. From a fantasy perspective, Diggs has only had one game better this season than McKenzie’s explosion last week. It’s hard to envision the Bills not giving McKenzie more run in Week 17, even with Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley back from the Reserve/COVID-19 List.
Kendrick Bourne, New England Patriots
Kendrick Bourne has been silent over the last three games, racking up just 99 total yards from scrimmage and 6 receptions in the span. It’s a letdown after he went 4-98-1 and 5-61-2 in two of his previous three games. But this is a get-right spot, as Bourne has the best WR/CB matchup of New England’s wideouts against a soft Jacksonville secondary.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers
He’s back from the Reserve/COVID-19 List and figures to be second on the Packers in targets behind Davante Adams this week. When the Packers last squared off against the Vikings, Marquez Valdes-Scantling went nuclear with his best game of the season (4-123-1). He’s also coming off a 5-98-1 performance in Week 15, before sitting out last week with a positive COVID-19 test. You’re not likely to get more than 3-5 receptions out of Valdes-Scantling, but with an average depth of target of 18.6 yards — which ranks second among all WRs with at least 20 targets on the year — he only needs one deep connection to hit big.
Week 17 TE Sleepers
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
Tyler Higbee has been consistent but has had no real ceiling this year. But his recent stat lines (5-48-0, 5-41-0) are serviceable for a streaming TE option. Adding a TD on top would make him a killer play. The Ravens, Higbee’s opponent this week, have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to TEs on the year and 0.5 TDs per game — also the fifth-most in the league.
Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders
It looked like Darren Waller may be able to return for Week 17, but then he landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 List and seems destined to miss yet again. That leaves Moreau as one of the top receiving options in Vegas. He paced the team in yards last week (4 catches for 67 yards), and this week he gets a top matchup against the Colts, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to TEs on the year.
