Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Week 6 main slate is officially in the books. It was ultimately a pretty uncompetitive week, with eight of the 10 games being decided by double-digits. That said, the other two games both went to overtime, so there was still some exciting football for fans to enjoy.
Even in an uncompetitive week, there were still plenty of surprising DFS results. Let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers from the Week 6 main slate, as well as some of the million-dollar winners on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Winners
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor got off to a slow start this season, but he has been red-hot of late. He racked 23.4 DraftKings points in Week 4 vs. the Dolphins, and he followed that up with 34.9 last week vs. the Ravens.
He kept the good times rolling vs. Texans. He turned 14 carries into 145 yards with two touchdowns, and he added one catch for 13 yards. Overall, he finished with 31.8 DKFP, which made him the highest-scoring RB on the slate.
Taylor was a popular play — he was the fourth-highest owned RB at approximately 21.5% on DraftKings — but you needed him in your lineups for a shot to win a tournament.
Fill-In Running Backs
One of the big questions this week was whether you should use Darrel Williams or Khalil Herbert at running back. Turns out, there were no wrong answers. Williams finished with 23.9 DKFP thanks to two touchdowns, while Herbert racked up 19.2. That made both players excellent sources of value.
Williams is expected to have another chance to start in Week 7, so expect him to be priced up vs. the Titans. The Bears will likely have at least one of their injured running backs return to the lineup, so Herbert was more of a one-hit-wonder. Regardless, both players did their job for fantasy owners.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams offense exploded for 38 points vs. the Giants, so they had plenty of fantasy value to go around.
Cooper Kupp took a week off from dominating the 2021-22 season last week, but he was back at it vs. the Giants. He finished with nine catches, 130 yards, and two touchdowns, giving him 37.0 DKFP on the day. That was the second-highest mark on the slate regardless of position.
Darrell Henderson also came through for his fantasy owners. He had one rushing and one receiving touchdown, and he paired that with more than 100 total yards.
Finally, Matt Stafford also got in on the fun, tallying four touchdowns and 251 yards.
None of those players were particularly contrarian, but only 1.0% of the field used all three players in the $20 NFL $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest. Those teams unsurprisingly did very well.
Losers
Kareem Hunt
Hunt was one of the chalkiest players of the entire season. He commanded nearly 43% ownership vs. the Cardinals, which made a lot of sense. Not only was Nick Chubb out of the lineup, but Hunt is one of the best players at the position on a per-touch basis.
Unfortunately, Hunt was also coming into this contest banged up, and his day was cut short due to an injury. He finished with just 10.8 DKFP, which disappointed a lot of fantasy owners.
It’s always bad luck when a player gets injured, but there were some red flags with Hunt. The coaching staff said his touches would be capped in this contest, so perhaps the fantasy community overvalued his role vs. the Cardinals.
Lamar Jackson
Jackson led the Ravens to a comfortable victory vs. the Chargers, so he probably doesn’t feel too bad about his performance. That said, he left a lot of fantasy owners disappointed.
Jackson was the highest-owned quarterback on DraftKings, but he finished with just one touchdown, 167 passing yards, and 51 rushing yards. He also threw two picks, bringing his fantasy total to just 13.78 DKFP for the day. The Ravens’ offense still rolled to 34 points, but Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, and Le’Veon Bell each had a rushing touchdown.
Jackson is typically one of the safest quarterbacks in fantasy, so this game stands out as a major outlier. He’ll likely bounce back next week, but that won’t help his fantasy owners in Week 6.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ offense wasn’t just bad this Sunday, they were downright awful. Justin Herbert had just 195 passing yards, and he led the team with 12 rushing yards. Twelve! Austin Ekeler was invisible, Mike Williams had just two catches, and Keenan Allen posted a season-low 50 yards.
Jared Cook was the only player who managed to salvage fantasy respectability, but he wasn’t really on the DFS radar this week. Overall, if you rostered any player on the Chargers, you probably didn’t cash.
The Chargers still have some promise, but their offense may not be quite as good as some thought. They can go off in favorable matchups, but they have a long way to go to join the stratosphere of the NFL’s best offensive teams.
Winning tournament lineups
NFL $4M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE
I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that millions of dollars changed hands over the final minutes of this slate. Noah Fant scored a touchdown with less than two minutes to go in the Broncos-Raiders game, which increased his fantasy total to 24.7 DKFP. CeeDee Lamb also scored two late touchdowns — one in the third quarter, one in overtime — so his owners shot up the leaderboards late. Both players wound up in the winning lineup in the large DraftKings Milly Maker.
This team also faded Hunt to target the Browns passing attack. Baker Mayfield was average at best, but it did put this team on Donovan Peoples-Jones at just 0.8% ownership. He caught a Hail Mary touchdown at the end of the first half, and he ultimately finished with 29.1 DKFP at just $3,500. That made him a legit GPP-winner.
The rest of this lineup is comprised of Taylor, Joe Mixon, Adam Thielen, and Travis Kelce, who collectively smashed. Finally, the Colts’ defense was chalky vs. the Texans, but they did very well with 15.0 DKFP.
Overall, this team was extremely contrarian — five players were rostered in less than 6% of lineups — and the late touchdowns from Lamb and Fant pushed it over the top.
NFL $3M MEGA MILLIONAIRE
This contest features a much higher buy-in and far fewer entries, so perfect wasn’t required to take home first place. In other words, you didn’t need a guy like Peoples-Jones, so the winning score was more than 40 points lower than in the other Milly Maker.
This lineup also rode the late magic from the Broncos, rolling with a Teddy Bridgewater–Courtland Sutton-Fant double stack. All three players provided excellent production at minimal ownership and moderate price tags.
The rest of the lineup is made up of chalky players who did well. They avoided Hunt, but Taylor, Mixon, Herbert, Meyers, and Chase all had at least 17.1% ownership.
This is just further proof of the power of a contrarian stack. If you can land on the right overlooked team — which is easier said than done — it allows you to play chalk with the rest of your lineup and still win a GPP in certain contests.
$2.5M NFL Sunday Million
There’s a good bit of overlap between the winning lineup on FanDuel and the winning lineups on DraftKings. Guys like Lamb, Kupp, Thielen, Taylor, and Henderson all crushed regardless of which site you were playing on.
The big differences here are that this team used Dak Prescott at quarterback and Ricky Seals-Jones at tight end. RSJ provided excellent value this week thanks to a touchdown, but he didn’t have a smashing week like Fant. Still, the savings allowed this team to pay up for three stud wide receivers and Taylor, who combined for seven touchdowns and a billion yards (#math).
This team also benefitted from a late pick-six by Trevon Diggs, who continues to secure an interception every week. That brought the Cowboys to 13 FanDuel points, which made them a strong option for their price tag.
