Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s actually true.
Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. If they score enough fantasy points, they become a black hole of sorts and “break the slate.”
Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate breaker one week, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.
Here are the five players most likely to break the slate in Week 7.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Pay Packers
Aside from the brutal Week 1, Aaron Rodgers has been cruising this season. However, the fantasy numbers haven’t been huge, with Rodgers topping 275 yards just once (344 in Week 5) and throwing for 3-plus TDs just once (4 in Week 2). He should top both of those numbers this week with a ceiling for even more against Washington, who has been brutalized by the pass all season. Washington has allowed an average of 317 pass yards and 2.7 pass TDs per game. Since last season, Rodgers has been great everywhere — but he scores 11% more fantasy points when playing as a home favorite. The icing on the cake here is that Rodgers has scored 2 rushing TDs in the last three weeks. A 5-total-TD, 400-yard effort from Rodgers is a possibility.
Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson has evolved into Los Angeles’ workhorse. His touch counts this year: 17, 16, [injury break], 19, 18, 23. Since returning from injury, his average touch count is up 3-4 touches per game. LA even called a 25-yard swing pass end zone target for Henderson last week, which he converted for a TD.
And now Henderson gets the single best matchup in fantasy football for RBs against the Detroit Lions, the last-ranked team in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Detroit has coughed up 115 yards and 1 TD per game on the ground and 42 yards and 1 TD per game to RBs through the air. Henderson has never truly blown the lid off a ceiling, and Week 7 will be the best chance of his career so far to do just that.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Tyreek Hill has been dealing with a quad injury, but the volume and usage is still so absurd that his chances of destroying a slate are still among the highest of all players — even if they are a bit lower than his usual chances. But Week 7 is just such a blowup spot for any WR, let alone Hill.
The Chiefs draw the Titans, who rank dead last (32 of 32) in fantasy points allowed to WRs. And they have been attacked hard on deep balls. Of teams that have allowed at least 10 plays to go either Deep Middle, Deep Left, or Deep Right, the Titans defense ranks last in yards per attempt on passes Deep Right (21.5 YPA) and Deep Left (20 YPA).
Among offensive players, Hill ranks second on Deep Right passes (27 YPR) and second on Deep Left receptions (20.7 YPA). Good luck, Tennessee.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
We raved about Rodgers’ matchup against this Washington pass defense up above, and as you’d expect, that translates to tantalizing upside for the WRs as well (second-most points allowed to WRs). Pair that porous defense with one of the highest-ceiling WRs in fantasy football, and you have a natural fit for the Slate Breakers article.
Davante Adams showed us a ridiculous 12-206-1 line two weeks ago, and you could argue that isn’t even his ceiling. Adams has upside of 2-plus TDs any given week, but he only has 2 TDs on the whole year. Adams ranks first in the NFL with a 35.5% target market share, second in air yards (803), first in actual receiving yards (668), third in total points scored (124.8) — but 30th in TDs score. That correction is coming soon.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Adams’ wild numbers shown above are fairly aligned with Cooper Kupp’s — but Kupp has been producing TDs, too (league-high 7 so far). Kupp’s 35% target market share and 653 yards both rank second to only Adams, and now Kupp gets the best WR-CB matchup of the week:
Kupp will spend about 70% of his routes just straight dancing on Detroit slot man AJ Parker, who comes into this game with an 88% catch rate allowed — worst among all starting CBs. And he’s allowing 0.33 fantasy points per route covered — third worst among all starting slot CBs.
