Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Week 7 of the NFL is just about in the books, but I am already looking forward to fantasy football in Week 8. Because it is never too early to look ahead, that is exactly what we will do every Monday afternoon here at FTN. If Week 7 didn’t go too well for you, it is entirely likely you are already trying to pinpoint next week’s favorable matchups.
Luckily, I have you covered.
Running Backs vs. New York Jets
All three New England running backs (Damien Harris, J.J. Taylor, Brandon Bolden) finished as top-20 fantasy running backs against the Jets this past week (pending Monday night). The Jets allowed 54 points to the Patriots. Do I really need to add anything else? Yes? OK then. Well, New York is currently coughing up 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game, the most in the NFL, while they have allowed multiple running backs to find the end zone in three different games this season. The Jets are also now allowing a healthy 2.60 points per drive (fifth most), while opposing offenses are scoring points on 51.5% of drives against New York this season, the highest mark in football. Joe Mixon’s Week 7 usage wasn’t anything to write home about, but he’s reached 20 touches more often than not. He has multiple-touchdown upside in this dream matchup.
A.J. Brown vs. Indianapolis Colts
After a slow start to the season that consisted of injury and Chipotle betrayal, A.J. Brown has been fantastic over the last two weeks. He is coming off his best game of the season Sunday, hauling in 8-of-9 targets for 133 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs. Brown has now seen 18 targets over the last two weeks and is clearly ahead of Julio Jones and company. He gets an awesome Week 8 matchup against a struggling Colts secondary that is surrendering the second-highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL (7.2%), while opposing top receivers have had huge games against them. Take a look:
- Week 1: Tyler Lockett (4-100-2)
- Week 2: Cooper Kupp (9-163-2)
- Week 4: DeVante Parker (4-77-1)
- Week 5: Marquise Brown (9-125-2)
- Week 6: Brandin Cooks (9-89-0)
- Week 7: Deebo Samuel (7-100-1)
The Colts are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to all receivers, but as you can see, they have clearly given up some huge games to opposing number-one wideouts, which Brown certainly is for the Titans. He suffered an injury early when these teams first met this season, but I expect a huge performance this time around.
Wide Receivers vs. Washington Football Team
I will say Washington’s defense looked improved Sunday against the Packers, but it was mostly the pass rush. They back end of that defense is still awful and now William Jackson is hurt. In Week 8 they face the Broncos, who have Courtland Sutton and his elite air yards and now Jerry Jeudy is likely to return. Washington is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, while their 6.9% passing touchdown rate allowed is a bottom-five mark in the league. Jeudy operated as Denver’s clear top receiver before getting hurt back in Week 1 and is very affordable in DFS this weekend.
Tight Ends vs. Houston Texans
I am going to highlight Houston’s inability to defend tight ends every week until more people truly realize how bad they are. They just allowed Zach Ertz to score a 47-yard touchdown in his first game with the Cardinals, making it five straight games a tight end has found the end zone against the Texans. And that uninspiring list of tight ends includes Ertz, Dawson Knox, Mo Alie-Cox, Tommy Tremble and Hunter Henry. Letting Ertz make plays after the catch is bad enough but 47 yards? Yikes. Tight ends are averaging well over 15 fantasy points per game against Houston this season, making this an amazing spot for Tyler Higbee, who is coming off a solid game where he was targeted a healthy eight times. He is still logging just over 90% of the snaps on the season and is running a route on about 89% of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks.
Quarterbacks vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are in trouble right now, and while they should be able to beat the Giants at home Monday night, that doesn’t mean they will dominate. Their defense is still so, so bad, coughing up a league-worst 2.87 points per drive, while their 40.8 yards per drive allowed are also the most in football. They are surrendering the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (25.6), as well as a league-leading 39.3 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers. That could bode well for Daniel Jones, who is averaging nearly 33 rushing yards per game on the season. If he can get some of his receivers back this week, Jones could have a very strong fantasy game and is a viable streaming option if you need to replace Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr (both on bye) or Russell Wilson (IR).
