Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 5

The NFL always surprises, and September seemed to flip the conventional wisdom on rookie learning curves. Jahmyr Gibbs has taken a back seat to David Montgomery in Detroit. Jordan Addison plays less than K.J. Osborn in Minnesota. And Sam LaPorta has the most catches in a tight end’s first four career starts since Mike Ditka. Which trends should inform your start and sit decisions? Read my Week 5 recommendations to find out.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end, and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 5

Quarterbacks

6. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. NYG

33.4-297-1.80-0.74 and 2.1-4-0.07 = 18.5

7. Anthony Richardson, IND vs. TEN

31.3-213-1.19-0.72 and 6.5-37-0.48 = 18.4

8. C.J. Stroud, HST at ATL

36.1-280-1.37-0.40 and 2.6-10-0.09 = 17.4

I’ve been fixated on C.J. Stroud‘s now-151 pass attempts this season, which are tied for third among quarterbacks. Volume is king in fantasy. But the rookie is also up to a 24.3% passing DVOA that is fifth among regular passers. He increasingly looks like a massive draft hit, and I would start him in fantasy in Week 5.

9. Russell Wilson, DEN vs. NYJ

32.2-242-1.61-0.61 and 2.8-16-0.10 = 17.0

I predicted last week that Russell Wilson’s less-than-300-yard rushing pace would cost him a shot at a QB1 finish. But maybe not if he throws for three touchdowns twice per month! Wilson had a 2.1 expected touchdown shortfall in 2022. Quarterbacks have more control over those surpluses and shortfalls than skill players do, but I’m starting to think Wilson was at least somewhat a victim of poor luck. He had touchdown surpluses of 13.7, 3.2, 11.4 and 7.2 from 2018 to 2021 and has a 1.3 surplus so far this season. And all five of those ranked top 10 at the position. I would start Wilson even in a difficult Jets matchup in Week 5.

10. Jared Goff, DET vs. CAR

34.0-256-1.80-0.61 and 1.3-2-0.06 = 16.8

Jared Goff has averaged 6.8 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road with the Lions. That’s more than 2.0 points more extreme than the next highest current quarterback split (Mac Jones, 4.3) and almost unbelievable because it. But Goff just played his 16th Lions road game. I’m convinced enough to put Goff in my top 10 at home against the Panthers.

11. Justin Fields, CHI at WAS

29.1-204-1.37-0.99 and 6.8-33-0.26 = 16.5

Justin Fields‘ four-touchdown Week 4 performance was encouraging. But it came against a Broncos defense that ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA and just allowed 70 points to the Dolphins. Fields is a borderline starter in Week 5, but he will need to run more to reassert his definitive QB1 status. He’s averaged just 29 rushing yards per game this season, less than a third of the 95-yard average from Week 6 to the end of last season that spurred his fantasy renaissance.

12. Trevor Lawrence, JAX at BUF

36.0-247-1.48-0.76 and 3.2-14-0.13 = 16.4

Trevor Lawrence could use one of those three-touchdown Russell Wilson weeks for his fantasy managers. But I’m optimistic he will with his 11 passes thrown into the end zone, tied for 11th most at the position with Tua Tagovailoa. Meanwhile, Lawrence ranks a sneaky seventh at the position with a 21% carry share this season but yielded a pair of 1-yard touchdown runs to Tank Bigsby that could easily have been quarterback sneaks. I am projecting Lawrence for a 16.5% carry share in Week 5 that is tied for 10th at his position, and I would continue to start him even in shallow fantasy formats.

13. Jordan Love, GB at LV

33.0-228-1.65-0.79 and 3.1-14-0.15 = 16.4

It seems increasingly likely that the schedule aided Jordan Love in his three-touchdown outbursts the first two weeks. The Bears and Falcons rank 31st and 27th in pass defense DVOA, and the Saints and Lions (teams that limited him to one touchdown pass apiece) rank ninth and eighth. But Love bolstered poor passing performances with touchdown runs in Week 3 and 4, and his 170 rushing attempts in three seasons at Utah State suggest that can continue. And I am projecting Love for the same 16.5% carry share and 16.4 fantasy points as Trevor Lawrence this week. I gave Lawrence the tiebreaker, but feel free to start Love this week.

14. Joe Burrow, CIN at ARZ

36.0-243-1.55-0.72 and 2.9-8-0.15 = 16.2

I’m willing to buy that Joe Burrow has been unlucky with his 2.78 expected touchdown shortfall that is fifth highest at the position. The Bengals star had a top two touchdown surplus in 2021 and in 2022, and the best quarterbacks consistently make those surplus leaderboards. But Burrow contributed a sneaky 257 yards and five touchdowns rushing in 2022, and he has just 3 yards on eight carries this season. He’s clearly limited by his hip injury, and I would bench Burrow until he turned the corner with it.

15. Dak Prescott, DAL at SF

35.3-247-1.61-0.78 and 2.6-10-0.07 = 16.2

Dak Prescott has averaged 3.2 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in the last five-plus seasons. Do not start him on the road in San Francisco.

16. Matthew Stafford, LA vs. PHI

36.9-273-1.50-1.03 and 1.7-6-0.09 = 16.0

17. Brock Purdy, SF vs. DAL

27.9-240-1.31-0.36 and 2.2-4-0.18 = 15.6

18. Daniel Jones, NYG at MIA

31.9-204-0.93-0.80 and 6.1-31-0.18 = 14.4

19. Joshua Dobbs, ARZ vs. CIN

32.1-212-1.12-0.48 and 3.4-20-0.07 = 14.4

20. Sam Howell, WAS vs. CHI

33.8-232-1.25-1.05 and 2.5-16-0.07 = 14.2

21. Derek Carr, NO at NE

35.7-241-1.39-0.82 and 1.7-4-0.03 = 14.1

Running Backs

14. Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. KC

14.3-60-0.50 and 3.4-2.5-15-0.11 = 12.5

15. De’Von Achane, MIA vs. NYG

8.6-62-0.33 and 3.2-2.5-19-0.13 = 12.1

16. Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. NYG

11.0-55-0.37 and 3.7-3.0-22-0.11 = 12.1

17. Isiah Pacheco, KC at MIN

12.7-62-0.45 and 2.7-2.2-18-0.06 = 12.0

18. Aaron Jones, GB at LV

10.5-52-0.26 and 4.0-3.1-26-0.18 = 12.0

19. Brian Robinson, WAS vs. CHI

16.1-66-0.52 and 1.9-1.4-10-0.05 = 11.8

20. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. NO

13.9-54-0.38 and 3.8-2.9-20-0.07 = 11.5

21. Zack Moss, IND vs. TEN

15.1-66-0.42 and 2.2-1.7-11-0.06 = 11.4

22. David Montgomery, DET vs. CAR

16.2-63-0.62 and 1.1-0.9-8-0.03 = 11.4

23. Dameon Pierce, HST at ATL

16.1-58-0.45 and 2.7-2.0-14-0.05 = 11.2

24. Miles Sanders, CAR at DET

12.9-54-0.40 and 4.0-2.8-16-0.06 = 11.2

Miles Sanders slipped from his seventh-highest 63% carry share from the first three weeks to a 42% share in Week 4 that was tied for a modest 26th among running backs and trailed even his teammate Chuba Hubbard (45%). I don’t know if that switch is permanent or temporary with Sanders’ current groin injury. But I wouldn’t overreact in fantasy. Sanders has a 15% target share that is fifth highest at the position and needs just three more targets to pass his total from a fully healthy 2022 season. The Panthers lean on Sanders as a receiver in a way the Eagles did not need to, and that raises his fantasy floor. Start him as a back-end RB2 this week.

25. Khalil Herbert, CHI at WAS

10.9-54-0.26 and 2.9-2.1-15-0.08 = 10.0

Khalil Herbert had his first productive fantasy game in Week 4. But since the Bears first made D’Onta Foreman inactive in Week 2, Herbert has played between 55% and 78% of snaps and taken 44% of the team’s carries, 27th most at the position even with Justin Fields as his quarterback. He will have some duds in Bears losses, but Herbert is a flex start.

26. Najee Harris, PIT vs. BLT

13.8-55-0.33 and 2.3-1.7-11-0.07 = 9.9

Jaylen Warren has crept up from a 40% snap share in Week 1 to 43%, 45% and 49% shares the last three weeks. And he may play even more the next few weeks with normal tight end starter Pat Freiermuth sidelined with a hamstring injury. But Warren’s enhanced role has not seemed to have a major impact on Najee Harris‘ workload. The veteran back has a 56% carry share that is tied for 15th at the position. He could use a run-positive gamescript to increase his chances of a touchdown and likely won’t see one with a questionable Kenny Pickett and with a dangerous Ravens offense in town. But Harris’ volume is likely too big for you to bench him.

27. Breece Hall, NYJ at DEN

10.2-57-0.27 and 2.6-1.7-13-0.05 = 9.7

Breece Hall increased from 31-34% snap shares in Weeks 1 and 2 to 44-49% snap shares in Week 3 and 4. It’s baby steps in Hall’s recovery from a 2022 ACL tear. But perhaps a Broncos team that has allowed seven touchdown runs can spur a breakout performance? I would start Hall and hope for the best.

28. Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. BLT

6.9-29-0.16 and 5.3-4.3-31-0.10 = 9.7

Jaylen Warren‘s carries and rushing yards have trended down from Weeks 1 to 4, and I don’t see that changing despite Steelers’ fans somewhat irrational frustration with early-down starter Najee Harris. But Warren has played more in recent weeks and pushed his target share to 17%, fourth highest at his position. And I could see that increasing further with normal tight end starter Pat Freiermuth injured. You can flex Warren in your leagues with any sort of PPR scoring.

29. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs. CAR

8.1-37-0.21 and 4.3-3.4-23-0.10 = 9.6

Jahmyr Gibbs drafters are undoubtedly distressed that teammate David Montgomery has outcarried him 19 to 2 in the red zone in the three games they’ve played together this season. But Gibbs is tied for fifth at the position with a 15% target share, and that makes him at least a flex option while we wait to see if his snap share ever increases.

30. Samaje Perine, DEN vs. NYJ

7.6-31-0.19 and 3.7-2.9-22-0.12 = 8.6

I have a hunch undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin will take the bulk of Javonte Williams‘ touches while the relative veteran misses time with his hip injury. The Broncos raved about McLaughlin in the preseason, and he out-carried Samaje Perine 7 to 5 after Williams left Sunday’s game. But Perine was already close to the flex benchmark with his 11% target share that is top 20 among backs. Even a few extra carries should nudge him over — and even against a scary Jets defense.

31. Chuba Hubbard, CAR at DET

9.8-43-0.24 and 2.6-2.1-15-0.05 = 8.6

As I implied in the Miles Sanders section, Chuba Hubbard faces some role risk if his Week 4 workload bump followed Sanders’ groin injury. But the sophomore Panthers back has also impressed with a 30.8% broken tackle rate that is tied for third highest among backs with 25 or more carries. I believe he has earned more touches and am willing to bet on it with a Week 5 flex start.

32. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN vs. NYJ

8.7-41-0.25 and 2.4-1.9-12-0.06 = 8.0

I don’t think it makes much sense to scrutinize Jaleel McLaughlin‘s 13 career carries for their elusive or explosive tendencies. I’ll just say I am projecting him for a 48.5% carry share that is 24th highest at the position in Week 5. I am optimistic. But even if I weren’t, you might have to start him with four teams on bye this weekend.

33. Gus Edwards, BLT at PIT

11.4-51-0.31 and 1.1-0.8-5-0.02 = 7.9

Gus Edwards outsnapped his teammate Justice Hill 69% to 12% in the latter’s return from a toe injury in Week 4. Who knows which Ravens players will get hurt two, there, or four weeks from now. But for Week 5, I am projecting Edwards for a 35.5% carry share that is tied for 35th at the position, and I would make him my final flex start.

34. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. HST

9.5-41-0.29 and 1.9-1.5-10-0.04 = 7.8

After the successful Week 1 Arthur Smith troll, Tyler Allgeier has declined from a 56% to a 44%, 30%, and 26% snap share the last few weeks. Smith would likely prefer to build quick leads and play Bijan Robinson and Allgeier both to salt them away. But I’m not sure how often Desmond Ridder will make that happen. You can bet on a Week 5 touchdown if you need help with players on bye. But broadly speaking, I see Allgeier as a fantasy bench this weekend.

35. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI at LA

8.5-36-0.29 and 2.0-1.6-11-0.05 = 7.4

I half expected the Eagles to ride the hot hand at running back such that D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell and even Rashaad Penny had their occasional 20-touch weeks — and I wouldn’t completely rule it out. But Swift has out-touched Gainwell 17 and 18 to 15 and 6 the last two weeks. And unless that flips, I would bench Gainwell for the time being.

36. AJ Dillon, GB at LV

9.6-36-0.32 and 1.8-1.3-10-0.04 = 7.3

The Packers have tried to ride AJ Dillon to the tune of 42 touches the last three weeks with Aaron Jones either out or on a snap count. And while I don’t think he’s a different player than in his almost-900-yard, seven-touchdown third season, his circumstances likely are. The Packers have just 3.39 adjusted line yards, second worst in football. Dillon is averaging a meager 0.7 yards before contact per attempt. And that might not change with five-time All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari poised to potentially miss extended time with his nagging knee injury. I would bench Dillon in fantasy.

37. Ezekiel Elliott, NE vs. NO

8.6-34-0.29 and 2.2-1.6-9-0.05 = 7.1

Rumors swirled that Ezekiel Elliott would see starter reps for his Week 4 revenge game against the Cowboys. But Elliott played the same 30-40% of snaps he has all season while incumbent starter Rhamondre Stevenson has played 63-74%. The Patriots have at times produced two fantasy-relevant backs in recent seasons. But they need better offensive efficiency to make that happen and probably need an easier opponent than the Saints this week. Leave Elliott on your benches.

38. Antonio Gibson, WAS vs. CHI

4.9-19-0.16 and 2.9-2.3-18-0.08 = 6.2

39. Justice Hill, BLT at PIT

7.2-31-0.25 and 1.6-1.3-8-0.03 = 6.2

40. Roschon Johnson, CHI at WAS

5.4-24-0.18 and 2.3-1.9-13-0.06 = 6.1

41. Dalvin Cook, NYJ at DEN

7.3-30-0.23 and 1.5-1.2-8-0.04 = 5.9

42. Devin Singletary, HST at ATL

6.9-30-0.21 and 1.5-1.1-8-0.04 = 5.9

43. Tyjae Spears, TEN at IND

4.4-21-0.11 and 3.1-2.3-14-0.08 = 5.8

44. Cam Akers, MIN vs. KC

6.4-24-0.21 and 1.9-1.5-10-0.04 = 5.6

45. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC at MIN

5.5-23-0.17 and 1.2-1.0-7-0.04 = 4.7

46. Jerick McKinnon, KC at MIN

1.5-6-0.04 and 2.7-2.1-17-0.17 = 4.6

Wide Receivers

14. Nico Collins, HST at ATL

7.4-4.7-75-0.33 = 11.8

15. DJ Moore, CHI at WAS

7.8-4.9-69-0.37 = 11.6

16. Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. CHI

7.6-5.2-68-0.31 = 11.3

17. Marquise Brown, ARZ vs. CIN

8.3-5.3-60-0.37 = 11.1

18. Adam Thielen, CAR at DET

7.4-5.4-59-0.41 = 11.0

19. Garrett Wilson, NYJ at DEN

8.7-5.1-61-0.37 = 11.0

20. Michael Pittman, IND vs. TEN

8.5-5.8-58-0.33 = 10.9

21. Deebo Samuel, SF vs. DAL

6.4-3.9-54-0.25 = 10.8

22. Calvin Ridley, JAX at BUF

8.4-4.7-59-0.37 = 10.5

23. George Pickens, PIT vs. BLT

7.5-4.3-64-0.28 = 10.4

24. Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. NYG

6.2-4.2-64-0.26 = 10.2

25. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN at IND

7.8-4.9-58-0.31 = 10.1

26. Zay Flowers, BLT at PIT

6.5-4.9-55-0.28 = 10.0

27. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. GB

6.9-4.7-54-0.36 = 10.0

Jakobi Meyers slipped from seven-plus catches and 80-plus yards in his first two Raiders games to two catches and 33 yards in Week 4. Is that regression? Or is that having an undrafted rookie backup quarterback under center? I am betting on more of the latter and projecting Meyers for a 23.0% target share that is tied for 29th among wide receivers in Week 5.

28. Tyler Boyd, CIN at ARZ

7.5-5.1-57-0.29 = 10.0

Tee Higgins suggested he might try to play with a broken rib in Week 5. But I am currently projecting him to skip the week to recover, and Tyler Boyd has averaged 0.5 more catches, 10 more yards, and 1.0 more fantasy points in nine games with either Higgins or Ja’Marr Chase out since 2021. I think Boyd is a decent flex option this week.

29. Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. NYJ

6.9-4.4-54-0.38 = 10.0

Courtland Sutton suffered a 4.19 expected touchdown shortfall in 2022 that was second highest at his position, and he has three touchdowns in his first four weeks this season. I’m buying an eight-plus touchdown season and would start Sutton even against the Jets this week.

30. Michael Thomas, NO at NE

7.6-5.1-54-0.32 = 9.9

Alvin Kamara sucked up a lot of the Saints’ fantasy oxygen with a 13-catch PPR masterpiece in his return from a three-week suspension. But veteran receiver Michael Thomas landed in the same range of 6 to 9 targets and 50 to 61 yards he has all season. He just needs a touchdown to pop in fantasy, and Thomas has five red zone targets and a 1.63 expected touchdown shortfall, tied for 15th and second most at his position. His luck will improve. Keep rolling Thomas out there.

31. Christian Watson, GB at LV

6.2-3.8-50-0.35 = 9.3

USA Today Packers beat writer Ryan Wood reported that Christian Watson was on a snap count in his return from a hamstring injury in Week 4. But a 46% snap share was all Watson needed to score a touchdown, and that has been a familiar refrain for the sophomore receiver. Watson has 10 touchdowns in just 12 career starts. I am projecting him for the fifth-highest touchdown rate at his position, and I would flex him even with uncertain playing time in Week 5.

32. Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs. NYJ

6.2-4.1-56-0.25 = 9.2

While his teammate Courtland Sutton has been the bigger fantasy producer, Jerry Jeudy has returned from his hamstring injury to play 69% of snaps the last three weeks and tied for sixth at the position with a 53% air yards share in Week 4. A breakout is coming.

33. Drake London, ATL vs. HST

7.0-4.1-50-0.34 = 9.1

Drake London‘s 18% target share wouldn’t be a major issue in other circumstances. It barely trails still-successful fantasy receivers like Calvin Ridley (20%) and DK Metcalf (19%). But London’s Falcons have thrown just 119 passes in four weeks, fourth fewest in football. It’s a bad combination for fantasy. London makes his Week 5 flex case with his six red zone targets — and with four teams on bye. But his flex status is tenuous.

34. Christian Kirk, JAX at BUF

6.5-4.3-51-0.29 = 9.1

Christian Kirk has dramatically outproduced his No. 34 wide receiver ranking with 248 yards and a touchdown the last three weeks. But he’s enjoyed that success with teammate Zay Jones mostly sidelined. And if Jones returns in Week 5 like I am currently projecting, then Kirk could suffer a fantasy decline. I still see Kirk as a flex starter, but be careful in DFS.

35. Gabe Davis, BUF vs. JAX

5.1-3.0-50-0.34 = 8.5

I think I’m destined to rank Gabe Davis as a bench in games when he scores and as a starter in games when he fails to score for the rest of eternity — so be careful this week. I continue to project Davis for the highest yards and touchdowns per catch among wide receivers. But I am projecting him for a 15.0% target share that is tied for just 59th at the position. He’s as boom or bust as they come.

36. Tank Dell, HST at ATL

5.5-3.5-50-0.26 = 8.5

Tank Dell has some of Gabe Davis‘ boom-or-bust tendencies. But the Texans rookie has also spiked from a 48% snap share in Week 1 to 61-79% shares the last three weeks. C.J. Stroud is throwing often and efficiently, and I think he can support two wide receivers in fantasy. Start Dell at flex.

37. Jahan Dotson, WAS vs. CHI

6.7-3.9-44-0.33 = 8.4

Jahan Dotson‘s game-tying touchdown catch in Week 4 had a bit of a garbage-time feel to it. But the sophomore Commanders receiver already had three end zone targets on Sunday to lead the position. Dotson has a modest 0.66 expected touchdown shortfall and is a decent bet to score another five or six touchdowns this season.

38. Romeo Doubs, GB at LV

6.4-3.9-44-0.32 = 8.3

I was nervous that Christian Watson‘s return to the lineup would relegate Romeo Doubs to the fourth or fifth Packers target. But with both Watson and Aaron Jones on snap counts and with Luke Musgrave a Week 5 question mark after an apparent concussion last Sunday, Doubs continues to look like a fantasy option. The sophomore receiver is tied for 16th in target share and third in red zone targets this season. I would keep playing him.

39. Tutu Atwell, LA vs. PHI

5.8-3.5-44-0.21 = 8.2

He may be a couple of touchdowns behind, but Tutu Atwell has been a Gabe Davis kind of explosive play threat with a 28% air yards share that is top 40 at the position. My question is who loses with Cooper Kupp‘s potential return to the lineup? Assuming Kupp plays in Week 5, I am projecting Atwell for a 16.0% target share that is just 52nd among wide receivers. That makes him a boom-or-bust final flex receiver option, and it’s possible that’s overly optimistic.

40. Curtis Samuel, WAS vs. CHI

4.9-3.6-39-0.20 = 7.8

Curtis Samuel has seen a 15% target share this season that is a sneaky top 60 among wide receivers. And the Commanders veteran adds an extra dimension as a runner. With four teams on bye, you can start Samuel in a pinch. But I also expect his target volume to fade a bit with Terry McLaurin looking increasingly healthy from his preseason turf toe injury. I am projecting Samuel for a 15.5% target share in Week 5 that is tied for 53rd at his position.

41. Robert Woods, HST at ATL

6.6-3.9-43-0.23 = 7.7

Robert Woods has seen consistent 72-86% snap shares and between 6 and 10 targets per game this season. You can start him in a bye-week pinch. But I think it’s also clear that the younger and more explosive Nico Collins and Tank Dell are the top two Texans fantasy receivers.

42. Jordan Addison, MIN vs. KC

4.9-3.1-42-0.27 = 7.4

Jordan Addison has already proven his playmaking bona fides with 62- and 39-yard touchdown catches and a 45-yard defensive pass interference penalty in his first four career games. But the rookie receiver played a modest 64% of September snaps and saw a 13% target share that missed the top 60 at his position. Addison will make his fantasy mark sooner or later. But I would bench him for now until his target share increases. 

43. Kendrick Bourne, NE vs. NO

5.1-3.3-40-0.23 = 7.3

Kendrick Bourne led regular wide receivers with a 30.1% DVOA in 2021 and teased a real fantasy potential with 11 targets and two touchdowns in Week 1 this season. But the veteran Patriots receiver has slipped from his 91% snap share that week to between 51-56% shares the last three weeks with DeVante Parker back in the lineup. I don’t think his current role justifies a fantasy start even with four teams on bye.

44. Zay Jones, JAX at BUF

5.4-3.4-37-0.27 = 7.0

Zay Jones outsnapped his teammate Christian Kirk 89% to 60% in Week 1 and may be the best Jaguars red zone option with his 6-foot-2 frame. But after missing a few weeks with a knee injury, I would prefer to see a healthy Jones performance before I trusted him as a flex starter.

45. Jayden Reed, GB at LV

5.1-2.8-38-0.25 = 6.8

A primary slot receiver, Jayden Reed played his typical 67% of snaps in Week 4 even after Christian Watson returned to the lineup. His 45th wide receiver ranking and fantasy “sit” designation are a result of what could suddenly be a crowded Packers receiver room with Watson, Romeo Doubs, Aaron Jones and Luke Musgrave. But watch the injury news. If Musgrave misses Week 5 with the head injury he suffered last Sunday, Reed could threaten flex starter status.

46. Brandin Cooks, DAL at SF

5.4-3.3-38-0.22 = 6.8

47. Josh Reynolds, DET vs. CAR

4.4-2.8-40-0.24 = 6.8

48. Rashid Shaheed, NO at NE

4.1-2.8-39-0.17 = 6.8

49. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN at IND

4.7-3.0-38-0.24 = 6.7

50. DeVante Parker, NE vs. NO

4.6-2.9-40-0.19 = 6.6

51. Michael Wilson, ARZ vs. CIN

3.8-2.7-38-0.19 = 6.3

Tight Ends

4. Sam LaPorta, DET vs. CAR

6.3-4.8-53-0.35 = 9.8

5. Evan Engram, JAX at BUF

6.5-5.1-50-0.23 = 8.9

6. Zach Ertz, ARZ vs. CIN

7.0-4.7-40-0.34 = 8.4

The question with Zach Ertz was whether his underwhelming two targets in Week 3 were a result of regression or a difficult Cowboys matchup. And Week 4 seemed to answer the latter. Ertz saw another 10 targets Sunday and reclaimed his No. 1 target share standing at the position — he and Travis Kelce are tied at 25%. You can start Ertz every week.

7. Cole Kmet, CHI at WAS

5.5-4.0-42-0.31 = 8.0

I was nervous for Cole Kmet in the preseason because he caught seven touchdowns on just 10 red zone targets in 2022. No other tight end with 10 or fewer such targets caught even five touchdowns. But the fourth-year Bears starter has done more than catch another two touchdowns Sunday. He’s jumped to a 21% target share that is fifth highest at the position. Justin Fields will likely still pass less than most other quarterbacks. But Kmet brings enough to the table to earn a top 10 tight end ranking.

8. Jake Ferguson, DAL at SF

5.8-4.1-39-0.33 = 7.9

Jake Ferguson has yet to score the bunches of touchdowns to confirm my confidence in his fantasy prospects. But the new Cowboys tight end starter added another two red zone targets Sunday and is up to 11 for the season, four more than T.J. Hockenson in second place. Ferguson could lead the position in touchdowns this year.

9. Darren Waller, NYG at MIA

5.8-3.8-43-0.25 = 7.6

Darren Waller‘s 16.9% receiving DVOA paints a more optimistic picture of his slow start than his 153 yards and zero touchdowns. But volume is king in fantasy, and Waller has not lived up to the preseason narrative that he would be the de facto definitive No. 1 Giants receiver. Waller’s 18% target share is tied for just 10th at the position and in a logjam with teammates Wan’Dale Robinson (17%), Darius Slayton (16%) and Parris Campbell (16%). I am still starting Waller in Week 5, but I dropped him to ninth at the position.

10. Dallas Goedert, PHI at LA

5.4-4.0-43-0.22 = 7.6

The Eagles have too much talent to allow all of their skill players to reach their fantasy potentials. A.J. Brown caught just 11 balls for 108 yards the first two weeks, became the squeaky wheel, and exploded for 18 and 306 the last two weeks. And perhaps Goedert will see his own “make me happy” target outburst in the next few weeks. But I am projecting the veteran tight end for an 18.5% target share that is tied for just seventh at the position. And Jalen Hurts throws fewer passes than most other quarterbacks. Goedert remains a top 10 tight end option, but he isn’t a fantasy slam dunk.

11. Hunter Henry, NE vs. NO

5.1-3.6-40-0.28 = 7.5

Hunter Henry has not kept the one-red-zone-target-per-week pace that buoyed my optimism for his fantasy value after the first few weeks. But the veteran Patriots tight end has played an 84% snap share that is top five at the position. And he ranks seventh with 123 routes run.

12. George Kittle, SF vs. DAL

4.7-3.4-41-0.26 = 7.3

I know, I know. George Kittle might be the most talented tight end in football. But Kittle has an even more extreme version of Dallas Goedert‘s problem. The 49ers are absolutely loaded at the skill positions. Kittle racked up an encouraging nine targets and 90 yards in Week 3 with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined with a shoulder injury. But the other three weeks, Kittle has averaged a modest 3.3 targets and 19 yards. And he has yet to score this season after tipping a likely regression with a 5.37 expected touchdown surplus that was the highest among tight ends in 2022. I would start Kittle against the Cowboys Sunday night. But you might should temper your expectations.

13. Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. HST

5.5-3.1-37-0.21 = 6.5

Kyle Pitts is more meme than fantasy asset at this point. Sure, he’s leading the position in air yards share, but start him at your own peril.

14. Tyler Higbee, LA vs. PHI

5.2-3.4-35-0.20 = 6.4

Tyler Higbee led tight ends with 11 targets in Week 4 and pushed his full-season target share to 16%, tied for 12th among tight ends. But I suspect Higbee could be a major loser of Cooper Kupp‘s potential return the Rams lineup. I am projecting the veteran tight end for a 14.5% target share that is tied for 17th at the position in Week 5. And that volume drop pushes Higbee below the TE1 benchmark.

15. Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. JAX

4.2-3.3-29-0.22 = 5.9

Dalton Kincaid encouraged with a 20% target share in Week 4. But he discouraged with a 5% air yards share. It’s the yin and yang of Kincaid. I won’t be ready to start him until he makes a few plays down the field.

16. Tyler Conklin, NYJ at DEN

4.7-3.3-33-0.18 = 5.9

17. Luke Musgrave, GB at LV

4.0-2.8-30-0.21 = 5.7

18. Dalton Schultz, HST at ATL

4.4-2.9-29-0.21 = 5.6

19. Dawson Knox, BUF vs. JAX

3.4-2.4-25-0.25 = 5.1

20. Logan Thomas, WAS vs. CHI

4.0-2.6-26-0.20 = 5.1

21. Jonnu Smith, ATL vs. HST

3.7-2.6-28-0.15 = 5.1

22. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at IND

3.6-2.6-27-0.16 = 5.0

23. Durham Smythe, MIA vs. NYG

3.5-2.6-27-0.16 = 5.0

24. Irv Smith, CIN at ARZ

4.0-2.6-22-0.19 = 4.6

25. Kylen Granson, IND vs. TEN

3.8-2.5-24-0.16 = 4.6

26. Juwan Johnson, NO at NE

3.4-2.2-24-0.18 = 4.5

27. Mike Gesicki, NE vs. NO

3.3-2.2-23-0.17 = 4.5

28. Taysom Hill, NO at NE

0.8-0.5-5-0.04 = 4.3

29. Hayden Hurst, CAR at DET

3.3-2.4-21-0.17 = 4.3