Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 4

Players like Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Zack Moss, Tutu Atwell and Sam LaPorta have played so well to start the 2023 season that they’ve erased the mystery of their start-or-sit status. But plenty of other players remain close to that critical fantasy benchmark. My Start and Sit column for Week 4 can help who to play in your season-long fantasy leagues.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 4

Quarterbacks

5. Kirk Cousins, MIN at CAR

39.2-291-1.96-0.71 and 1.4-5-0.09 = 19.1

6. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at BUF

33.3-296-1.87-0.70 and 2.4-5-0.08 = 18.9

7. Lamar Jackson, BLT at CLV

30.8-217-1.29-0.65 and 7.8-47-0.21 = 18.5

8. Anthony Richardson, IND vs. LA

31.3-206-1.10-0.81 and 6.5-40-0.46 = 17.8

Anthony Richardson missed Week 3 with a concussion. But assuming he plays in Week 4, I feel the same about him now that I did this time last week. Richardson has a 27% carry share that is tied for fourth at the position with Jalen Hurts despite missing about three of eight possible quarters the first two weeks. That rushing and rushing touchdown potential makes him a clear QB1.

9. Joe Burrow, CIN at TEN

36.3-256-1.78-0.73 and 2.6-8-0.15 = 17.6

Joe Burrow bolstered his 2022 QB1 resume with a sneaky 19% carry share and five rushing touchdowns. He has just five carries in three weeks this season thanks to his calf injury. But Burrow took two of those and ran for 17 yards in Week 3, and I take that as a positive sign of his healing. I am projecting him for a 14.5% carry share in Week 4 that is tied for 10th highest among quarterbacks, and that maybe optimistic projection keeps him in the QB1 conversation.

10. Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs. ATL

36.4-249-1.60-0.76 and 3.2-14-0.16 = 17.2

Trevor Lawrence has a modest three passing touchdowns in as many weeks in 2023. That ties him for just 17th at the position. But Lawrence has a more encouraging nine passes attempts into the end zone, tied for 10th most. And he’s yielded a pair of 1-yard rushing touchdowns to his team’s new “power” back Tank Bigsby. Lawrence’s resulting 1.33 expected touchdown shortfall might not seem excessive. But quarterbacks have more control over their touchdown surpluses and shortfalls than skill players do, and I expect Lawrence to finish the season with a top 10 surplus. Keep the faith, Lawrence remains a QB1.

11. Dak Prescott, DAL vs. NE

35.3-245-1.86-0.85 and 2.8-11-0.08 = 17.2

Dak Prescott undermined his QB1 ranking with a modest 249 yards and one touchdown against the “I guess they’re not tanking” Cardinals Sunday. But that performance — and the 143-yard, no-touchdown one in Week 1 — was on the road. And Prescott has averaged 3.3 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in the last five-plus seasons, which is the second-most extreme at the position. I expect a Week 4 fantasy bounceback in Dallas even facing a difficult Patriots defense.

12. Jordan Love, GB vs. DET

32.4-226-1.69-0.62 and 3.3-17-0.14 = 17.1

Jordan Love couldn’t match the three-touchdown passing pace he set in Weeks 1 and 2 in easier Bears and Falcons matchups in Week 3 against a stout Saints defense. The first-time Packers starter threw for just 249 yards and one score on Sunday — and probably needed the Derek Carr injury and subsequent short Jameis Winston drives to do it. But Love has been impressive in net of a schedule of extreme opponents. And his nine carries for 39 yards and a touchdown finally showed the rushing versatility he teased with 170 runs in three seasons at Utah State. I am back to projecting Love for a 16.5% carry share in Week 4 that is eighth highest at the position. And that pushes him to be my final quarterback start this week.

13. C.J. Stroud, HST vs. PIT

37.0-269-1.30-0.48 and 2.5-9-0.08 = 16.4

Bryan Knowles explained his optimism for C.J. Stroud the real player Wednesday. But Stroud looks even more valuable in fantasy than in reality so far this season thanks to his 121 pass attempts, tied for fourth most with Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. The Texans seem to have the right combination of a substandard rushing offense and — Week 3 blowout aside — propensity to fall into pass-friendly game scripts to promote Stroud’s passing volume. I am projecting the rookie for 37.0 attempts in Week 4, which is fourth highest at the position. He isn’t quite a QB1. But I rank Stroud ahead of Justin Fields and several other fantasy mainstays. Peruse your waiver wires for this potential upgrade.

14. Justin Fields, CHI vs. DEN

29.1-193-1.22-1.02 and 8.2-37-0.34 = 16.3

I worried this preseason that Justin Fields would throw more passes in 2023 and hurt his fantasy value in helping his case to be the Bears franchise quarterback. That hasn’t happened — Fields has averaged just 29.3 pass attempts this season, fourth fewest among the quarterbacks that have avoided injuries this season. But Fields has also slipped to 36 rushing yards per week, barely a third of his 95-yard average from the last 10 weeks of 2022. I remain hopeful for a bounce back. But it is difficult to recommend Fields in Week 4 with quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love filling up the top 12 at the position. I would bench Fields in Week 4. 

15. Russell Wilson, DEN at CHI

32.4-241-1.49-0.65 and 2.6-15-0.09 = 16.3

Russell Wilson caught several stray sports talk bullets for the Broncos’ 70-20 loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. But the veteran quarterback has been … fine? Improved, certainly. Wilson is tied for fifth at the position with six passing touchdowns, is sixth with 7.6 yards per attempt, and he has an above average 3.0% passing DVOA. Wilson is on pace for fewer than 300 rushing yards — with the same 14 or 15 starts from the last two seasons — for the third straight season. And that will likely cost him a chance at a QB1 finish. But Wilson looks like a reasonable matchup play again and is a deeper option against the Bears this week.

16. Geno Smith, SEA at NYG

33.2-243-1.56-0.60 and 2.4-11-0.03 = 16.1

17. Jared Goff, DET at GB

34.5-259-1.55-0.55 and 1.3-2-0.06 = 16.0

18. Deshaun Watson, CLV vs. BLT

33.4-232-1.37-0.80 and 3.7-20-0.09 = 15.7

19. Matthew Stafford, LA at IND

36.6-268-1.38-1.03 and 1.8-5-0.11 = 15.3

20. Brock Purdy, SF vs. ARZ

29.0-232-1.36-0.44 and 2.5-5-0.16 = 15.3

21. Kenny Pickett, PIT at HST

35.0-227-1.44-0.84 and 2.9-9-0.13 = 14.8

22. Daniel Jones, NYG vs. SEA

31.7-206-1.01-0.70 and 5.9-26-0.20 = 14.7

23. Jimmy Garoppolo, LV at LAC

30.5-237-1.40-0.98 and 2.2-3-0.13 = 14.2

24. Baker Mayfield, TB at NO

34.0-231-1.33-0.71 and 2.9-7-0.05 = 14.1

Running Backs

15. Alvin Kamara, NO vs. TB

12.3-49-0.31 and 5.1-3.8-31-0.16 = 12.8

16. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at DAL

13.9-57-0.39 and 4.5-3.5-24-0.09 = 12.7

17. Aaron Jones, GB vs. DET

11.2-55-0.29 and 4.0-3.1-27-0.19 = 12.7

18. Alexander Mattison, MIN at CAR

14.5-57-0.54 and 3.2-2.3-14-0.11 = 12.2

19. Brian Robinson, WAS at PHI

17.0-72-0.49 and 1.6-1.2-9-0.04 = 11.8

20. D’Andre Swift, PHI vs. WAS

12.0-68-0.42 and 2.2-1.6-11-0.07 = 11.6

21. Zack Moss, IND vs. LA

14.7-65-0.37 and 2.2-1.8-12-0.07 = 11.2

22. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at GB

9.4-42-0.26 and 4.6-3.6-27-0.11 = 11.0

23. Javonte Williams, DEN at CHI

12.9-54-0.31 and 3.8-2.8-18-0.09 = 10.9

24. Isiah Pacheco, KC at NYJ

12.2-57-0.44 and 2.3-1.8-14-0.05 = 10.9

25. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. BLT

13.9-58-0.45 and 2.1-1.5-11-0.07 = 10.8

New Browns starter Jerome Ford outsnapped his new-old teammate Kareem Hunt 56% to 20% and out-touched him 12 to 7 Sunday. Blame the inefficiency on a Titans defense that is top three in run defense DVOA. Ford may not be Nick Chubb, but he’s a clear fantasy starter.

26. Dameon Pierce, HST vs. PIT

14.1-53-0.42 and 3.0-2.3-15-0.06 = 10.8

Dameon Pierce has averaged a concerning 2.5 yards per carry this season. And the same offensive line that has allowed rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud to be sacked 11 times in three weeks ranks bottom 10 with 3.57 adjusted line yards. I’m nervous, but Pierce ranks top 20 among backs with a 53% carry share. With the smaller samples involved, I still trust the workload more than the inefficiency. Start him in your flex spot.

27. Najee Harris, PIT at HST

15.2-59-0.38 and 2.5-1.9-11-0.08 = 10.8

Najee Harris has faced a lot of public skepticism the last three months. But his profile looks almost identical to Dameon Pierce‘s. Harris has played between 50-60% of snaps all three weeks while receiving back and fan favorite Jaylen Warren has played between 40-50%. Harris has taken a 56% carry share that is top 15 at the position. And the Steelers have 3.29 adjusted line yards, third worst in football. Harris needs better blocking or better playcalling to return to his traditional RB1/2 standard. But I still wouldn’t bench him with his volume of work.

28. Joshua Kelley, LAC vs. LV

14.0-54-0.45 and 2.0-1.3-9-0.03 = 9.8

I was mentally more prepared for Joshua Kelley to average 3.0 yards per attempt against the Titans run defense than to average 1.1 yards per attempt against the Vikings run defense. But the temporary Chargers starter played 73%-plus snap shares in two spots starts for injured starter Austin Ekeler. And assuming Ekeler misses one more week, I’m willing to take a third chance on Kelley in fantasy.

29. Khalil Herbert, CHI vs. DEN

10.8-52-0.29 and 2.5-1.8-13-0.05 = 9.5

Khalil Herbert has less than 100 yards on 23 carries thanks in part to quarterback Justin Fields‘ rocky transition to a robotic full-field progression-reader. I wouldn’t say I’m enthusiastic. But Herbert does have 10 targets in three weeks and at that pace should set a new career target high just a third of the way into the season. As long as D’Onta Foreman remains a healthy scratch, I think you can lean on Herbert’s high carry share and start him as one of the last few flex starters.

30. Breece Hall, NYJ vs. KC

10.5-55-0.28 and 2.3-1.4-12-0.05 = 9.4

Zack Wilson and the poor Jets offensive line may make it a bit harder for Breece Hall to rip off breakaway carries than he made it seem in Week 1. But while the sophomore back has been stymied with just 27 rushing yards the last two weeks, he has jumped from a 31% snap share to 34% and 49% shares the last two weeks. As expected, Hall is playing more as more time passes from his offseason ACL recovery. And north of a 50% share, I think he’s too talented to leave on your fantasy benches, whatever the circumstances around him.

31. De’Von Achane, MIA at BUF

7.3-47-0.25 and 2.3-1.9-14-0.09 = 9.1

Push comes to shove, I guess I would take a reluctant under on four touchdowns per week for Dolphins rookie De’Von Achane. But that doesn’t mean I would bench the Week 3 breakout running back. Achane ran the same 4.32-second 40 time that his backfield teammate Raheem Mostert did. They are likely the two fastest backs in football, and I expect Achane’s explosive runs to continue.

32. David Montgomery, DET at GB

13.4-53-0.40 and 1.1-0.9-7-0.03 = 9.0

Luckily I rechecked Tom Pelissero’s timeline before I sent this to press. After earlier reporting he would not play, Pelissero corrected that Montgomery would indeed play. I expect versatile rookie Jahmyr Gibbs to add workload as the season goes on, but I project Montgomery for more carries and more of a chance to score in Week 4. You can start the veteran in the final flex spot.

33. Jaylen Warren, PIT at HST

7.0-30-0.17 and 4.4-3.4-26-0.08 = 8.8

Jaylen Warren may do the little things that make up for his lack of ideal measurables. But with less than 50% snap shares and 10 carries all three weeks, his fantasy case leans on points per receptions. In half- or non-PPR formats, I would bench him in Week 4.

34. Tyler Allgeier, ATL at JAX

10.9-48-0.34 and 1.8-1.4-10-0.04 = 8.8

Tyler Allgeier‘s fantasy slide in Weeks 2 and 3 says more about the Falcons offense as a whole than his role in it. The sophomore back leads the team with his four red zone carries the last two weeks. But the team has just nine such carries since Week 2, and quarterback Desmond Ridder has the lone rushing touchdown. For a player whose entire fantasy case rests on his touchdown-scoring, it would help if Ridder did more as a passer. I would bench Allgeier in London this week.

35. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI vs. WAS

10.2-43-0.35 and 2.2-1.7-12-0.05 = 8.8

Kenneth Gainwell suffered just a small workload shortfall to his teammate D’Andre Swift in Week 3. He took 14 versus 16 carries and played 46% versus 52% of snaps. And I still wouldn’t be shocked to see Nick Sirianni ride the hot hand at the position and feature Gainwell, Swift and maybe even Rashaad Penny in various and unexpected weeks this season. But even with close to an even share on average, Gainwell will likely need big Eagles leads to rack up the touches he needs for fantasy success. He will have some of those with that defense, that offensive line, and Jalen Hurts. But I’m not quite ready to start two Eagles backs when they already yield more than a quarter of the team’s carries to their quarterback.

36. AJ Dillon, GB vs. DET

10.3-39-0.33 and 2.1-1.6-12-0.05 = 8.1

With Aaron Jones expected to return to play Thursday against the Lions, AJ Dillon should slide back to his RB2 role with the team. I’m optimistic he can score more touchdowns with better expected touchdown luck. But Dillon is more of a deeper-league fantasy flex option.

37. Matt Breida, NYG vs. SEA

8.9-37-0.27 and 2.4-1.9-12-0.05 = 7.8

Matt Breida played a definitive RB1 role in a Week 3 spot start for an injured Saquon Barkley. He dominated his teammate Gary Brightwell with an 82% versus an 18% snap share. And rookie Eric Gray played only on special teams. But the dominant workload did not translate into any sort of fantasy success for Breida, and I see little reason to chase the workload with the Giants’ other offensive problems.

38. Gus Edwards, BLT at CLV

10.9-51-0.33 and 0.7-0.5-3-0.01 = 7.7

Assuming he makes it back from his apparent Week 3 concussion and normal-ish starter Justice Hill does not from his toe injury, Gus Edwards should lead the Ravens backfield in touches and red zone chances this week. That would make him a reasonable flex option most of the time. But Edwards faces a Browns defense that has allowed a terrifying -0.29 yards before contact per attempt this season. And Edwards seems particularly sensitive to matchups as a non-contributor as a receiver. I would bench him in Week 4.

39. Roschon Johnson, CHI vs. DEN

6.7-30-0.21 and 2.5-2.0-14-0.07 = 7.2

40. Kareem Hunt, CLV vs. BLT

8.0-32-0.25 and 2.2-1.7-12-0.06 = 7.1

41. Dalvin Cook, NYJ vs. KC

8.3-34-0.26 and 1.9-1.5-10-0.05 = 7.0

42. Ezekiel Elliott, NE at DAL

8.6-34-0.30 and 1.8-1.3-8-0.04 = 6.9

43. Samaje Perine, DEN at CHI

4.4-19-0.11 and 3.7-2.9-21-0.12 = 6.8

44. Antonio Gibson, WAS at PHI

3.7-15-0.12 and 3.6-2.8-22-0.10 = 6.4

45. Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. MIN

5.7-26-0.14 and 2.5-2.0-14-0.05 = 6.2

46. Devin Singletary, HST vs. PIT

7.0-31-0.22 and 1.6-1.2-8-0.04 = 6.1

47. Melvin Gordon, BLT at CLV

7.8-31-0.26 and 0.9-0.7-6-0.02 = 5.7

48. Jerick McKinnon, KC at NYJ

1.5-6-0.05 and 3.1-2.5-20-0.20 = 5.3

49. Tyjae Spears, TEN vs. CIN

4.1-19-0.10 and 2.7-2.0-13-0.07 = 5.2

50. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC at NYJ

6.1-25-0.19 and 1.3-1.0-8-0.04 = 5.2

Wide Receivers

19. Tutu Atwell, LA at IND

7.5-4.6-62-0.29 = 11.2

20. DK Metcalf, SEA at NYG

7.3-4.9-63-0.42 = 11.2

21. Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. ARZ

6.8-4.7-65-0.38 = 11.1

22. Calvin Ridley, JAX vs. ATL

9.5-5.2-62-0.38 = 11.0

23. Chris Godwin, TB at NO

8.0-5.7-61-0.30 = 10.9

24. George Pickens, PIT at HST

7.4-4.4-67-0.29 = 10.8

25. DJ Moore, CHI vs. DEN

7.8-4.6-63-0.36 = 10.8

26. Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. KC

8.2-4.7-61-0.36 = 10.8

27. Christian Kirk, JAX vs. ATL

7.6-5.0-60-0.36 = 10.7

28. Adam Thielen, CAR vs. MIN

7.3-5.2-56-0.42 = 10.7

Adam Thielen has had an uneven start to his 2023 season with 2, 9 and 14 targets and faces some risk in the latter spike because of rookie teammate Jonathan Mingo‘s Week 3 concussion. But Thielen also entered Week 1 with an ankle injury, and suspect that spurred his slow start to the year. Don’t count on 11 catches and 145 yards every week. But start Thielen with confidence even if Bryce Young returns to play quarterback.

29. Zay Flowers, BLT at CLV

7.1-5.4-57-0.32 = 10.7

Zay Flowers has a 30% target share in 2023 that is tied for 12 among all receivers, not just among rookies. His modest 21% air yards share illustrates how few of those targets have had real explosive-play potential. But Flowers has looked as advertised after the catch. And in fantasy formats with any sort of points per reception, the rookie is a no-brainer start.

30. Marquise Brown, ARZ at SF

7.9-5.0-55-0.36 = 10.4

Marquise Brown ranks top 16 among receivers with both his 28% target share and 42% air yards share. Joshua Dobbs may not be Kyler Murray, but his 6.7 yards per pass attempt is middle of the pack among 2023 starters and plenty good to support Brown as a WR3 for fantasy.

31. Courtland Sutton, DEN at CHI

7.2-4.6-57-0.36 = 10.2

Courtland Sutton has already matched his two-touchdown total from all of 2022 in the first two weeks, but I don’t think that’s a fluke. The 6-foot-4 Broncos receiver suffered a 4.19 expected touchdown shortfall last year that was second biggest at his position. I expect at least seven scores this year and would start Sutton even with Jerry Jeudy back healthy.

32. Nico Collins, HST vs. PIT

7.2-4.4-63-0.28 = 10.1

Nico Collins has taken a bit of a backseat to the Tank Dell breakout the last two weeks. But Collins still led Dell with a 66% versus a 61% snap share in Week 3 and still ranks top 40 with a 20% target share and top 30 with a 32% air yards share. C.J. Stroud looks like a franchise quarterback, and I now think he can support two wide receivers in fantasy.

33. Jakobi Meyers, LV at LAC

7.0-4.9-55-0.36 = 10.1

Jakobi Meyers missed Week 2 with an apparent concussion. But he bookended that absence with 10- and 12-target games, and his 31% target share ties him for eighth among receivers with Garrett Wilson, Mike Evans and DeAndre Hopkins, albeit in one less game. The smaller sample may threaten that share and the red zone targets a bit more than his contemporaries. But I’m mostly sold and ready to start Meyers as at least a WR3 in fantasy.

34. Tyler Lockett, SEA at NYG

6.7-4.5-53-0.40 = 10.0

I entered the year a little worried that the traditional speed-slot receiver Tyler Lockett would yield some snaps and targets to rookie slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But JSN has strangely trended down from a 59% snap share in Week 1 to 56% and 44% shares the last two weeks. And Lockett has played 80%-plus shares all three weeks. As it stands, the veteran looks poised to continue his five-year streak of 900-plus-yard and eight-plus-touchdown seasons.

35. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN vs. CIN

7.8-4.9-57-0.29 = 9.8

Blame DeAndre Hopkins‘ slow fantasy start on Ryan Tannehill and matchups with the stout Saints and Browns pass defenses. The veteran still ranks top 10 at the position with a 31% target share. Start him with confidence.

36. Terry McLaurin, WAS at PHI

6.5-4.3-58-0.28 = 9.8

I don’t know whether to blame Terry McLaurin‘s modest 42 yards per game this season on his turf toe injury, his presumably difficult Week 3 Bills matchup, or his fifth-round sophomore quarterback Sam Howell. But the veteran receiver has at least played 74% of snaps or more in all three weeks. And he hasn’t seen his sophomore teammate Jahan Dotson pass him for targets or production. I remain hopeful and would start McLaurin at flex this week.

37. Christian Watson, GB vs. DET

6.5-4.0-53-0.34 = 9.7

The Packers have seemed to have hit on all of their receiver picks in Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Luke Musgrave the last two seasons. I’m not sure how things will shake out with Watson finally poised to return to the lineup. But I’ll bet on the 6-foot-4 and 208-pound receiver with 4.36 speed and seven touchdowns in just 10 professional starts.

38. Michael Thomas, NO vs. TB

7.5-5.0-52-0.33 = 9.7

Michael Thomas slips in my rankings with backup quarterback Jameis Winston poised to start in Week 4. But Thomas still ranks 20th among wide receivers with a 26% target share. I think he’s back and would continue to start him.

39. Jerry Jeudy, DEN at CHI

6.4-4.2-58-0.27 = 9.5

Jerry Jeudy jumped from a 68% snap share in his Week 2 debut to a 76% snap share Sunday and from five targets and 25 yards to seven targets and 81 yards. I find myself preferring Courtland Sutton for my projected better touchdown potential. But I think Jeudy is healthy and back to flex starter status.

40. Drake London, ATL at JAX

6.9-4.2-51-0.32 = 9.1

I am projecting Drake London for a 23.5% target share in Week 4 that is tied for 28th among receivers, but that may follow more heart than head. London’s 16% target share from the first three weeks ranks outside the top 50 at the position. And Desmond Ridder has just 88 pass attempts, fifth fewest among the uninjured quarterbacks. London is barely holding onto one of the last few flex spots.

41. Tank Dell, HST vs. PIT

5.8-3.8-54-0.28 = 9.0

Tank Dell may have lagged his relative veteran teammate Nico Collins in snap share in Week 3. But the rookie Texans receiver exploded for 217 yards the last two weeks and ranks top 40 at the position with a 29% air yards share. Dell has the fantasy role that everyone thinks Jordan Addison does. And Dell’s 9.0 projected fantasy points tie him with David Montgomery for my final flex starter spot. I labeled him a sit, but you can definitely start him this week.

42. Gabe Davis, BUF vs. MIA

5.4-3.1-50-0.33 = 8.6

Gabe Davis‘ weekly start-and-sit yo-yoing reflects the changing value of players around him, not of Davis himself. The explosive Bills playmaker continues to pace my projections in yards and touchdowns per reception. But his 14% target share is outside the top 50 at the position and makes him a borderline flex option at best for fantasy.

43. Joshua Palmer, LAC vs. LV

6.3-4.1-45-0.29 = 8.3

Justin Herbert is the special kind of quarterback who can buoy his receivers in fantasy. But while he should benefit from Mike Williams‘ unfortunate lineup absence, Joshua Palmer already played between 54-61% of snaps the first three weeks. Round 1 rookie Quentin Johnston seems more likely to jump from his 15-27% snap shares. And at least for Week 4, I think that leaves Palmer a few spots short of a definitive flex case. I would rather wait a week and see how Herbert distributes his passes to the non-Keenan Allen set.

44. Elijah Moore, CLV vs. BLT

6.9-4.1-45-0.22 = 8.2

45. Brandin Cooks, DAL vs. NE

6.4-3.8-45-0.27 = 8.0

46. Robert Woods, HST vs. PIT

6.7-4.1-45-0.24 = 8.0

47. Kendrick Bourne, NE at DAL

5.6-3.6-43-0.26 = 7.9

48. Jahan Dotson, WAS at PHI

6.0-3.6-43-0.25 = 7.8

49. Tyler Boyd, CIN at TEN

5.6-3.8-44-0.23 = 7.8

50. Jordan Addison, MIN at CAR

4.9-3.2-43-0.28 = 7.5

51. Romeo Doubs, GB vs. DET

5.5-3.3-37-0.28 = 7.0

52. Josh Reynolds, DET at GB

4.6-3.0-40-0.25 = 7.0

53. Curtis Samuel, WAS at PHI

4.3-3.1-35-0.18 = 7.0

Tight Ends

6. Sam LaPorta, DET at GB

5.6-4.2-45-0.32 = 8.5

7. George Kittle, SF vs. ARZ

5.2-3.7-45-0.29 = 8.1

8. Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. WAS

5.5-4.2-45-0.23 = 7.9

9. Zach Ertz, ARZ at SF

6.0-4.1-35-0.31 = 7.4

Zach Ertz crashed back to earth with just two targets and six yards in Week 3. But I suspect that had more to do with his Cowboys opponent than an inevitable statistical regression. Ertz still ranks first at his position with a 25% target share this season. And I am projecting him for a 20.0% share in Week 4 that is sixth highest.

10. Kyle Pitts, ATL at JAX

6.2-3.5-42-0.25 = 7.4

Kyle Pitts has a modest 100 yards and no touchdowns in the first three weeks but is a positive outlier with a 35% air yards share — Darren Waller is second way back at 26%. In short, Pitts is having the same season he had in 2022. Fantastic. Start him, I guess, and prepare to be disappointed.

11. Hunter Henry, NE at DAL

5.0-3.5-39-0.29 = 7.3

Hunter Henry has been a bit lucky to catch two touchdown passes on just two end zone and two red zone targets — his 1.27 expected touchdown surplus is the highest at his position. But Henry is on pace to return to the 14.6 red zone target average he enjoyed in his first five healthy seasons before he fell to just seven such targets with Matt Patricia as his offensive play-caller in 2022. And Henry ranks fifth at the position with 94 routes run even after the Patriots added an effective wide receiver in tight end Mike Gesicki. I think Henry is back to his TE1 standard.

12. Tyler Higbee, LA at IND

5.4-3.7-37-0.23 = 6.9

Tyler Higbee saw what would have been his first touchdown of the season nullified by a penalty in Week 3. That’s a familiar story for the tight end with the second biggest expected touchdown shortfall (2.22) since the start of 2022. But I still expect that positive regression to come, and Higbee ranks second at the position with 105 routes run this year. Keep him in your lineups.

13. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. DEN

5.0-3.5-37-0.24 = 6.9

I was pessimistic for Cole Kmet in 2023 after his extreme expected touchdown surplus in 2022. But the veteran tight end has jumped to an 18% target share this season that is tied for 11th highest at the position. He’s a modest Justin Fields improvement away from TE1 territory.

14. David Njoku, CLV vs. BLT

4.6-3.5-37-0.24 = 6.8

David Njoku has one red zone target and no touchdowns this season and has never scored more than four touchdowns in any of his six previous professional seasons. He’s a PPR play in a run-oriented offense in Cleveland. I would bench him in typical fantasy formats.

15. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at HST

4.9-3.2-34-0.28 = 6.7

Pat Freiermuth made just two catches for five yards the first two weeks this season. But the Steelers played 49ers and Browns opponents that look like top four pass defenses. In a likely easier Raiders matchup in Week 3, Freiermuth bounced back to his more typical three catches, 41 yards, and a touchdown. The volume could be down with Jaylen Warren‘s emergence as a capable receiving back. But Freiermuth is tied for fourth among tight ends with four red zone targets is at least close to a TE1 standard with his touchdown potential.

16. Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. NE

5.3-3.4-31-0.29 = 6.6

Jake Ferguson has fallen back from the Dalton Schultz 600-yard pace with just 70 yards in three weeks this season. But the new Cowboys starter also has nine red zone targets, two more than T.J. Hockenson in second place at the position. He needs more general volume to make it to TE1 territory. But that could happen if the Cowboys play some normal games for a change. And Ferguson could conceivably lead the position in touchdown catches. Bench him but keep an eye on him.

17. Gerald Everett, LAC vs. LV

4.5-3.3-33-0.23 = 6.4

18. Dawson Knox, BUF vs. MIA

4.2-2.9-30-0.31 = 6.3

19. Dalton Schultz, HST vs. PIT

4.9-3.2-31-0.27 = 6.3

20. Luke Musgrave, GB vs. DET

4.3-3.0-33-0.22 = 6.1

21. Noah Fant, SEA at NYG

3.8-3.0-31-0.19 = 5.7

22. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. KC

4.5-3.1-30-0.17 = 5.6

23. Cade Otton, TB at NO

4.3-3.0-29-0.19 = 5.5

24. Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. MIA

3.8-2.9-27-0.21 = 5.4

25. Logan Thomas, WAS at PHI

4.3-2.7-27-0.21 = 5.3

26. Hayden Hurst, CAR vs. MIN

3.8-2.8-25-0.19 = 5.1

27. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. TB

3.7-2.4-26-0.19 = 4.9

28. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN vs. CIN

3.6-2.5-27-0.16 = 4.9

29. Durham Smythe, MIA at BUF

3.3-2.3-25-0.15 = 4.5

30. Colby Parkinson, SEA at NYG

3.2-2.2-25-0.15 = 4.5

31. Taysom Hill, NO vs. TB

0.5-0.3-3-0.02 = 4.4

32. Irv Smith, CIN at TEN

3.8-2.5-21-0.18 = 4.4

33. Kylen Granson, IND vs. LA

3.4-2.4-22-0.15 = 4.3

34. Donald Parham, LAC vs. LV

2.7-2.1-19-0.22 = 4.2

35. Mike Gesicki, NE at DAL

3.0-2.1-22-0.15 = 4.1