Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NFL teams go into the offseason with all sorts of goals. Build a Super Bowl winner. Improve the defense. Clear some salary. Tear it down and start over. But as fantasy football managers, we want one thing out of the offseason:
Points.
With the Super Bowl now behind us, this week I’m taking a spin through the offseason trade, free agency and draft market to find the best mix of offseason moves for fantasy football purposes. Obviously, they won’t all happen (in fact most of them won’t), but it does set us up for the things to watch for. For example, in last year’s iteration of this series, one of the top wishes was … the Jaguars trading for Calvin Ridley. This was prior to his announced suspension, so it didn’t work out exactly as wished, but it did end up happening, and the general idea remains the same: The NFL offseason is a jigsaw puzzle, and this attempts to put the puzzle together into a coherent picture.
That means we aren’t eying any defense moves, and the moves along offensive lines only matter as for how they help the offense. Today, the NFC. Monday, the AFC.
2023 Fantasy Football Offseason Wish List: NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Re-sign Tony Pollard; sign Jamaal Williams; cut Ezekiel Elliott
At least for fantasy (and probably for real football), the Cowboys desperately need a backfield rearrangement this offseason. Ezekiel Elliott’s contract is an albatross, and his presence holds any other Cowboys RB back. Instead, jettison him, re-sign Tony Pollard (and commit to him as the No. 1 when healthy), and bring in Jamaal Williams, who can be a competent No. 2 and (obviously) a goal-line weapon while not really threatening Pollard’s role.
Re-sign Dalton Schultz
Nope, no wide receiver talk here. Yes, the Cowboys should poke around at receiver this offseason (Jakobi Meyers?), but it’s a bad offseason for that, and giving Michael Gallup another offseason to recover from his torn ACL could do the trick anyway. Instead, let’s just make sure the team retains its tight end, with neither Jake Ferguson nor Peyton Hendershot nearly the receiving weapon Dalton Schultz is.
New York Giants
Trade 2.57 to Arizona for WR DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins is reportedly bound for a new home. What better landing spot than a 2023 playoff team that needs a receiver about as badly as the Colts needed a coach not named Jeff Saturday. The Giants had maybe the worst receiving corps in the league last year, and now Sterling Shepard, Richie James and Darius Slayton are all free agents, and Kenny Golladay seems like a prime cut candidate. Grab Hopkins, keep Isaiah Hodgins, maybe re-sign Shepard on a “when he’s healthy” deal, and this is suddenly a productive receiver room with a player with WR1 upside.
Re-sign Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley
Maybe this is “franchise tag, extend the other long-term.” I’m open to any iteration here. But given all the other needs the Giants already have, not bringing back the starting quarterback and running back is akin to saying it’s a tear-down-and-start-over situation, and given they just made the playoffs (and won a playoff game), that’s not the likely path. Bring these guys back however necessary.
Philadelphia Eagles
Draft RB Bijan Robinson (1.30)
Quarterbacks aside, whatever happens with Bijan Robinson this offseason is, for my money, the most fascinating storyline around the league. We seem to have accepted that running backs don’t matter as much as some thought when Saquon Barkley went second overall — no back has gone top-20 since. Robinson probably doesn’t fall all the way to Philadelphia at the end of the first, but if he does, and with Miles Sanders and Boston Scott both entering free agency, the Eagles should sprint to the podium with the pick.
Barricade the door to keep Jason Kelce from retiring
This was the same wish I had for the Eagles a year ago. The Eagles have to find a way to keep Jason Kelce around as long as he’s even semi-willing to be around. He’s year-to-year at this point in his career, but back up the truck, keep him there.
Washington Commanders
Sign Mike Gesicki and Chris Manhertz
The Commanders don’t need to mortgage their future for a quarterback in an offseason when half the league is trying that. Let Sam Howell take his shot as the starter. He’s got competent-to-above wide receiver weapons in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel. He’s got a good backfield group in Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic. But with Logan Thomas a rumored offseason cut, bringing in Mike Gesicki as a strong receiving tight end and Chris Manhertz as one of the best blocking tight ends in the league would let them Voltron together a strong TE unit and give Howell the best chance possible to make good.
2023 Fantasy Football Offseason Wish List: NFC North
Chicago Bears
Trade 1.01 to Indianapolis for 1.04, 3.79 and 2024 first-rounder
Three-team trade: Bears get 1.14 and 1.19; Patriots get Chris Godwin and 3.82; Buccaneers get 1.04
Make out a spreadsheet for every team and every position group and color in when a team is “set” at a given spot. For the 49ers you’d color in 90% of the spreadsheet. For the Bengals, you’d be mostly colored.
For the Bears? You’d color in quarterback and move on. This is a team that needs everything. One pick at the top of the draft is great. You know what’s even better? A bunch of picks throughout the draft. If I’m the Bears, I’m trading down as many times as I can and accumulating as many picks as possible.
Draft WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1.14)
Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool are a fine 2-3 in a receiver room. Not the best, but certainly not an area where you’re desperate to upgrade. As the 1-2? They’re extremely not what you want. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had one of the most signature games in recent college football history when he went for 15/347/3 in Ohio State’s Rose Bowl win a year ago, and while he missed most of last season with injury, the talent is more than enough to come right in as his former teammate’s top target.
Detroit Lions
Sign Irv Smith
If we think Jameson Williams is ready to be a big-time contributor in Year 2 (and I think it’s more likely than not), then a “top weapons” list of Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift and Williams is as good as most. But after dealing T.J. Hockenson, the Lions sifted through a variety of unexciting options at tight end. So why not make it a de facto trade with the Vikings and sign the tight end he displaced? We’ve all been plenty excited about Irv Smith in the past; let’s revive that hype.
Green Bay Packers
Trade Aaron Rodgers to the Jets for 1.13, 2.43 and Jets’ 2024 second
Maybe Aaron Rodgers can revive his MVP form and maybe he can’t, but it’s probably best for all concerned to move on, gather some weapons and let Jordan Love has his shot at the No. 1. Of course, he’ll need weapons, which means…
Draft WR Jordan Addison (1.15)
If that trade happens, the Packers would have a combined four first- and second-round picks, and while the team has been loathe to take a first-round receiver for a while now, it’s time to break the streak and grab a former Biletnikoff Award winner. Jordan Addison, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs would be the youngest receiver room in the league, but it would also be one of the most exciting.
Minnesota Vikings
Sign D’Ernest Johnson
Dalvin Cook probably doesn’t have too many more years as a top-flight back, but (assuming he’s back) he doesn’t have “zero” more years either. With Alexander Mattison hitting free agency, we want a No. 2 in Minnesota who can be a popular handcuff but won’t steal Cook’s work. D’Ernest Johnson showed he could be that in Cleveland.
Draft QB Hendon Hooker (3.87)
Hendon Hooker might not fall this far, but it’s not out of the question. Kirk Cousins will likely be the Vikings’ quarterback for another year, but he’s essentially free after that. The team should turn its eye to a possible replacement now.
2023 Fantasy Football Offseason Wish List: NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Draft WR Josh Downs (2.45)
If the Falcons are going to roll with Desmond Ridder at quarterback (and they might not have a better option), they should bulk up his weaponry. In Kyle Pitts, they have a tight end who loves to work outside, so in Josh Downs, they could get a wide receiver who does more work inside. Pitts, Downs and Drake London would be a stout trio.
Carolina Panthers
Sign Jimmy Garoppolo; draft QB Tanner McKee (2.39)
The Panthers could be yet another team left out of the quarterback musical chairs this offseason (my initial draft of this exercise had them landing Tom Brady), so they should focus on signing the best quarterback likely to hit the market, and that is somehow Jimmy Garoppolo. Add Tanner McKee and hope to groom him for the future, but this is sort of a “love the one you’re (stuck) with” scenario.
Sign Kareem Hunt and Rashaad Penny
The D’Onta Foreman/Chuba Hubbard duo was acceptable after the Christian McCaffrey trade last year, but it wasn’t great, especially lacking much of a receiving component. When healthy, Rashaad Penny is an upgrade on the rushing either one offered, and Kareem Hunt is a much better receiver than any of those guys, with the ability to be the RB1 if Penny gets hurt again.
New Orleans Saints
Sign Derek Carr
This isn’t what I’d do if I were in charge of the Saints and wanted to build a long-term contender, but that’s not this exercise. For our fantasy football enjoyment, putting Derek Carr on a team where he can throw to Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed is the best we can hope for for any of them. And the Saints are just spendy enough that I think it’s possible.
(But please, please don’t trade anything for him, Saints. Thankfully, that appears to be off the board.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Three-team trade: Buccaneers get 1.04; Bears get 1.14 and 1.19; Patriots get Chris Godwin and 3.82
Draft Will Levis
It will take a lot to jump a half-dozen needy teams for a quarterback this draft season, but the Bucs have the most other weapons in place (even taking Chris Godwin away from them) to make it worth it for them to sacrifice their first-round pick and an elite receiver to move up to grab the third of the Big Three quarterbacks in this year’s draft class. Give Will Levis a Mike Evans to play with and it could go very well.
Draft WR Rashee Rice (2.50)
With Julio Jones and Scotty Miller moving on (as well as Godwin in this exercise), the Bucs could look for a new receiving option, and putting Rashee Rice alongside Evans makes sense for their new quarterback.
2023 Fantasy Football Offseason Wish List: NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Sign Baker Mayfield
The Cardinals should have Kyler Murray back by midseason, so they aren’t likely to be able to lure a big fish at quarterback, and they shouldn’t devote that kind of resources to that exercise anyway. Instead, they should sign someone like Baker Mayfield, who could use a six-week (or so) run as a starter to rebuild his own value and still not really be a threat to displace when-healthy Murray.
Trade DeAndre Hopkins to Giants for 2.57
Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch and Robbie Anderson wouldn’t be anywhere near the best receiver group in the league, but it wouldn’t be near the worst, either. And with DeAndre Hopkins rumored to move, they should get the best resources back. A late second is a nice return for a receiver who turns 31 in June.
Los Angeles Rams
Sign Orlando Brown
Things are going to start getting expensive for the Chiefs, and that means Brown, who played in 2022 on the franchise tag, might have to move on. Getting him to a Rams team that saw almost everything implode in 2022 — starting with the offensive line — could help rebuild that offense in a hurry.
Sign Alexander Mattison
The most popular handcuff in football the last few years could land in a similar role in Los Angeles, but behind (or alongside?) a back in Cam Akers who is far less of a sure thing than Dalvin Cook has been. This wouldn’t be relying on Mattison necessarily, but it would give him a chance.
San Francisco 49ers
Commit to Trey Lance
It isn’t even a move. In fact, it’s a non-move. With Tom Brady retired and Brock Purdy hurt, the best thing for our fantasy purposes is for the 49ers to let us know the QB1 job belongs to Trey Lance and won’t go anywhere. Just tell us who to count on, Kyle Shanahan. Please.
Seattle Seahawks
Re-sign Geno Smith
Maybe the team could use a third receiver. Maybe the Seahawks could upgrade at tight end. They should probably add a second back for Kenneth Walker. But it starts with Geno Smith. Keep him around in Seattle for at least another couple years, and the rest should be satisfying enough for our fantasy purposes.
