Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
If you thought the end of the Super Bowl would mean a break in our fantasy football content … well, that was a silly thing to think. Because the teams are already looking ahead to the 2022 season, we’re doing so as well.
(If the “you” in the above paragraph is my wife … my apologies, honey, and happy Valentine’s Day. We’ll do something someday. Maybe when the kids move out.)
Our own Sam Wallace looked at every franchise’s needs last month. Now, it’s time to get specific. Ahead of the mass of transactions coming in about a month when free agency opens, followed by the draft, we thought we’d take a minute to figure out what we want to see happen this offseason – big moves, small moves, or wait-don’t-do-that moves – from a fantasy perspective. For draft picks, I’m including an expected pick range based on current mock averages (per Grinding the Mocks).
(AFC below. Check back Tuesday for the NFC.)
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Let Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders go, commit to Gabriel Davis as the WR2
This one seems pretty likely to happen. Sanders was just in Buffalo on a one-year deal, and at 34 (35 in March), he’s nearing the end. Beasley still has a year left on his deal, but the team can get out of his deal cheaply, and he’s 33 in April. Instead, roll with Stefon Diggs and Davis as what could be (if the smoking hot fire AFC Divisional Round is any indication) an elite 1-2 punch at receiver.
Miami Dolphins
Replace Mike Gesicki with David Njoku
Gesicki has had flashes, but he only has two hundred-yard games and 13 touchdowns across four seasons, and he’s a tight end only because someone put those letters by his name a few years ago. The dude’s a slot receiver. Njoku, who spent his college years in Miami, could return to the city and do more blocking in one game than Gesicki did in four years. That’ll help Tua Tagovailoa and the other skill players, and Njoku will still have enough targets to be a TE2 with upside.
Draft offensive linemen
Forgive the lack of specificity here, but it doesn’t matter. The Dolphins had the worst line in the league in 2021. Get more guys with pulses.
New England Patriots
Sign Chris Godwin
Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers (if he returns; he’s a restricted free agent) make for a perfectly fine WR2-4, in some order, but as WR1-3 that group is lacking. Godwin might not be ready for Week 1 (though he might be!), so this group can hold down the fort until he is. As soon as he touches the field, Godwin would give Mac Jones the elite option he needs when he’s ready.
New York Jets
Draft Wan’Dale Robinson (third round)
As bad as the Jets are, there isn’t an obvious move here. Zach Wilson is the QB. Elijah Moore is the WR1. Michael Carter should be the running back. The team is allergic to using a tight end in a fantasy-relevant way. And Corey Davis, if healthy, is a good WR2. Wan’Dale Robinson is an extremely versatile weapon, but most expect him to land in the slot long-term. Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios both hit free agency this offseason, leaving the slot wide open and letting Moore and Davis stay outside. Robinson will go late enough in the draft that the Jets can use their earlier picks on greater needs.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Sign Allen Robinson
Robinson had the year from hell in 2021, but if we assume there’s still anything of the absolute stud we had seen for years before that, he could be a free agency bargain. With Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews around, Robinson won’t have to be the alpha. But Robinson can absolutely fill that role if he can regain some of his former glory, and it would give Lamar Jackson easily the best cast of receivers he’s ever had.
Cincinnati Bengals
Re-sign Riley Reiff, sign Brandon Scherff
Reiff’s contract voids after the Super Bowl, and he was hurt at the end of the year, but the familiarity there as the right tackle opposite Jonah Williams would be strong. Bringing in the veteran Scherff, a five-time Pro-Bowler and one-time All-Pro, would be another huge get for an offense that isn’t missing much else. And of course…
Draft so many more offensive linemen
The Cincinnati offensive line almost got Joe Burrow killed in the postseason. Williams, Reiff and Scherff would be a good threesome. But a line has five players, so more big beefy lads are a must. Keep adding. Keep adding. Keep adding.
Cleveland Browns
Draft Garrett Wilson (first round)
Look, just because everyone already has these two paired up doesn’t mean it can’t be our dream. Wilson can head two hours northeast from Columbus and immediately become the Browns’ No. 1 receiver, or No. 2 if you want to give Jarvis Landry some veteran props in the final year of his contract. Baker Mayfield’s staying put. Give him weapons.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Sign Marcus Mariota
Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins aren’t the answers in Pittsburgh. The team drafts too late in what is already a bad QB class to get the answer there. Sure, poke around at the Aaron Rodgers/Russell Wilson markets, but the best answer here is to patch over the issue for a year. Mariota flamed out in Tennessee, but he’s looked fine as a backup with the Raiders. He wouldn’t even have to change uniform colors much. Just get him a pair of yellow cleats.
Draft Tyler Linderbaum (first round)
Certainly the best center in this year’s draft class, the problem with this wish is that Linderbaum isn’t likely to make it to Pittsburgh’s No. 20 pick. In that case, well, this doesn’t work. But if the Steelers have a shot to trade up for Linderbaum, he can right away help rebuild what was suddenly one of the league’s worst lines.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Sign James Conner, draft a Day 3 running back
Conner showed more than enough last year for a team to give him another shot at a starting gig, and with the Texans already shedding Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay and now David Johnson and Royce Freeman hitting free agency, 31-year-old Rex Burkhead is the only back left on the roster. Bring in Conner, but also draft a lower-tier rookie (spending earlier picks on more important slots) to build forward.
Sign Jamison Crowder
Brandin Cooks is the one sure weapon in Houston. 2021 rookie Nico Collins had some flashes and can be the outside weapon opposite Cooks. But the team shipped Keke Coutee out before last season, traded for Anthony Miller only to give him two games before being releasing him, and only had 36-year-old Danny Amendola on a one-year deal. There’s an opening for a slot receiver, and Crowder is one of the truest slot receivers out there.
Indianapolis Colts
Sign Zach Ertz
The Colts have a long history of using tight ends before struggling at the position last year. Frank Reich has long had a TE-heavy offense. Carson Wentz (if he’s back) has had success with tight ends, particularly with Ertz back in Philadelphia. The 31-year-old showed in Arizona that he still has the ability to be a team’s TE1, and reuniting with his former offensive coordinator and quarterback could be the best path.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trade first- and third-round picks to Atlanta for Calvin Ridley and Atlanta’s first
Trevor Lawrence needs a star wide receiver. Calvin Ridley needs to get out of Atlanta. There’s no better pairing. Bold? Sure. But if ever there were a draft to trade out of the first overall pick, this is it. Jacksonville would drop from first overall to eighth and in exchange get what could be one of the league’s best receivers out of a spot where things didn’t work out. Pairing Ridley with Trevor Lawrence could make a generational duo for the Jaguars, and that’s worth more than a seven-spot drop in the first round.
Draft Justyn Ross (fourth round)
If the Jags want to continue building Clemson Southeast, Ross is a low-floor, high-ceiling option slightly later in the draft who has plenty of experience with Lawrence. If Ross clicks, he and Ridley could be a star duo. If he doesn’t, it’s a small price, and the team can continue to roll with about-to-be-32-year-old Marvin Jones.
Tennessee Titans
Sign Christian Kirk
With Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, the Titans have their weapons for the immediate future. The team could theoretically use a tight end, they could use a versatile receiver even more given the apparent brittleness of their top two. Kirk could be a genuine slot weapon when Brown and Jones are healthy, and if/when one of those two goes down, he can slide outside with no huge drop in production.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Draft Kenny Pickett (first round)
The common refrain is that Denver is a logical landing place for Aaron Rodgers, but given how young the Broncos’ weapons are, maybe it makes sense to find a longer-term solution. Pickett obviously won’t carry Rodgers’ upside, but he would only cost them the ninth overall pick and leave all the other resources they’d have to use on Rodgers free to be spent elsewhere. Pickett can unlock these receivers and Noah Fant. Go young.
Kansas City Chiefs
Sign JuJu Smith-Schuster
This reportedly almost happened a year ago before Smith-Schuster decided to return to Pittsburgh. Try again, even cheaper this time. The Chiefs haven’t developed a No. 2 receiver behind Tyreek Hill. JuJu has a history as a great No. 2. Round peg, round hole, all that.
Let Darrel Williams leave
This is definitely more of a fantasy point than a real-football one, but Williams is an unrestricted free agent, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ain’t going anywhere. Let Williams walk, and Edwards-Helaire can be a real fantasy asset as the unquestioned No. 1.
Las Vegas Raiders
Sign Mike Williams
Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are both good options, but the unfortunate end to Henry Ruggs’ Raiders tenure left the team without a deep threat. Williams doesn’t have Ruggs’ speed (who does?), but he can be a field-stretching option Vegas lacks otherwise.
Los Angeles Chargers
Draft Jameson Williams (first round), retain Jalen Guyton
Mike Williams’ potential departure leaves a hole alongside Keenan Allen in this offense. Retaining Guyton — who is a restricted free agent, so the team can keep him if it wants — can fill that role in spurts, and the ex-Alabama receiver Jameson Williams can do it long-term. He might not be ready for the start of the season after his NCAA championship game ACL tear, but with Allen, Guyton and Austin Ekeler, this is a team that can afford to wait, and having a potential star rookie in the second half could be a difference-maker.
