Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The 2023 NFL regular season is officially over, which means it is time to start preparing for 2024. Over half of the NFL understands where they will be picking in the 2024 draft and can start assessing their team needs.
The next few months are crucial for NFL teams, but the moves that happen can have a significant impact on fantasy football. This article will look at the needs of all of the teams in the AFC and how they can have an impact on fantasy football in 2024. (Check the NFC side of things.)
NFL Offseason Team Needs: AFC
Baltimore Ravens
Team need for 2024: Find stability at running back.
Last offseason, the goal for Baltimore was to improve their receiving corps. The addition of Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers and offensive coordinator Todd Monken achieved that goal, leading to a (likely) MVP award for Lamar Jackson. In 2024, the goal needs to be to find stability in the backfield.
The Ravens backfield was once again marred by injuries in 2023. J.K. Dobbins lasted just eight carries before suffering another season-ending injury, this time to his Achilles. The team also got explosive runs from UDFA Keaton Mitchell, but unfortunately lost him to a torn ACL late in the season.
In the end, Baltimore was able to lean on Gus Edwards (198 carries for 810 yards and 13 touchdowns), Jackson (148 carries for 821 yards and five touchdowns) and Justice Hill (84 carries for 387 yards and three touchdowns) once again. With Dobbins and Edwards poised to hit free agency, the team needs to target a more stable running back while Mitchell recovers from his season-ending knee injury.
The 2024 draft doesn’t offer many options in the backfield, but the free agent class is headlined by names like Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard and D’Andre Swift. If Baltimore doesn’t want to commit big money to the backfield, they could also opt to take shots on smaller names with good production like Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, AJ Dillon or Antonio Gibson.
Baltimore’s passing attack will largely remain intact in 2024, but adding a reliable running back to lead the backfield could make a great team even better.
Buffalo Bills
Team need for 2024: Upgrade the wide receiver room.
Buffalo desperately needs another wide receiver who can take the pressure off Stefon Diggs. The veteran receiver led the team in targets (160), receptions (107), receiving yards (1,183) and receiving touchdowns (8) during the 2023 season, but he was shut down by defenses down the stretch of the regular season.
At this point, it seems fair to say that Gabe Davis will not evolve into a consistent WR2 in Buffalo. The fourth-year receiver saw his targets (81), receptions (45) and receiving yards (746) decrease in 2023 despite playing in 17 games. Davis is good at scoring touchdowns (seven touchdowns in three of four seasons) but has never had a catch rate above 56.0% in his career. The veteran is known as a dangerous deep threat, but he caught just 13 of 34 targets (38%) of his passes beyond 20 yards according to FTN’s advanced stats.
Davis is set to hit free agency this offseason and he is likely looking for a contract the Bills aren’t willing to give him. That would leave the team with Diggs, tight end Dalton Kincaid (73 receptions), running back James Cook (44 receptions) and slot receiver Khalil Shakir (39 receptions) as the team’s leading returning receivers.
Thankfully for Buffalo, the 2024 draft class is deep at wide receivers and features plenty of players who can hold different roles in the offense. Even if the team invests in a second contract for Davis, Buffalo should be looking to add a premium talent to their receiving room early in the draft to function as a WR2 to Diggs.
Cincinnati Bengals
Team need for 2024: Replace or re-sign key free agents.
Injuries kept the Bengals from returning to the playoffs in 2023. Now the team needs to decide how to prioritize their free agents to keep the Super Bowl window open for one more year.
The Bengals head into the offseason with several key offensive pieces heading into the free agency. That includes an offensive lineman (right tackle Jonah Williams), three wide receivers (Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin) and the top three tight ends (Irv Smith, Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample). These pieces won’t all require huge contracts, and the team could utilize the franchise tag on one player, but it is still a lot to lose on one side of the ball. Further complicating matters is the upcoming extension for Ja’Marr Chase.
The most likely solution involves franchising Tee Higgins and trying to bring back complementary pieces like Boyd, Irwin, Hudson and Sample on cheap deals. Time will tell who Cincinnati will prioritize this offseason, but this could be the last hurrah for the Bengals’ offense as we currently know it.
Cleveland Browns
Team need for 2024: Figure out how to get Deshaun Watson going.
There aren’t many true “needs” for the Cleveland Browns in 2024. The team’s offensive line is locked up. The backfield is set with Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford. Their top four receivers (Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman) are all under contract. Therefore, the biggest need for Cleveland is figuring out how to get Deshaun Watson to start playing like a $230 million quarterback.
Watson was 5-1 as the starter this year but didn’t provide much when healthy. The veteran quarterback completed just 61.4% of his passes for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns with four interceptions. It doesn’t help that Joe Flacco (1,616 yards for 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions) got off the couch and outproduced Watson in just five games.
The bigger issue for Watson was his tendency to hold the ball behind a top-five offensive line. FTN’s advanced stats show Watson’s struggles under pressure this season.
Compare that to Flacco.
Cleveland needs to find a way to get Watson comfortable with his weapons in their offense given the fully guaranteed contract they gave him.
Denver Broncos
Team need for 2024: Improve the wide receiver room.
The Broncos had a fair amount of struggles in their first season with Sean Payton at the helm. Despite solid quarterback play from Russell Wilson (3,070 yards and 26 touchdowns with eight interceptions in 15 games), the rest of the offense languished. Denver has already alluded to the idea that they will be moving on from Wilson this offseason, so our focus will shift to improving the wide receiver position.
Despite solid stats from Russell Wilson, none of Denver’s pass catchers had very good seasons. The Broncos featured zero players with 100 targets, 60 receptions or 800 receiving yards. Outside of Courtland Sutton (10), nobody on the Broncos had more than four receiving touchdowns. Denver used a second-round pick on Marvin Mims (22 receptions for 377 yards and a touchdown) only to use him sparingly on offense in favor of guys like Brandon Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey.
Denver desperately needs a WR1 in their offense, especially with the uncertainty at the quarterback position. There are already rumors that the team will look to move on from Courtland Sutton this offseason while Jerry Jeudy was subject to consistent trade rumors while delivering another season of underwhelming play (54 receptions for 758 yards and two touchdowns).
Denver has the 12th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which will put the top three signal callers out of reach. Instead, they should focus on building up the skill positions to be ready for when they get their future quarterback under center.
Houston Texans
Team need for 2024: Bring in a game-changer at running back.
Houston is set. They found their quarterback of the future. Their offensive line has solid, young pieces (although most of them need to try and stay healthy). They also have several solid receivers. One area that could help this team ascend to the next level would be a top-tier running back.
Houston was half-successful using a two-headed backfield in 2023. On one hand, Devin Singletary had a very solid season (216 carries for 898 yards and four touchdowns) with minimal expectations. On the other hand, Dameon Pierce (145 carries for 416 yards and two touchdowns) was an absolute flop after a strong rookie season. It is fair to say that neither player showed the ability to break big plays or factor heavily as a pass catcher.
Houston has ample cap space and few roster holes, which means they can splurge on one of the top running backs to add an explosive element to their offense. Adding a top running back like Saquon Barkley in free agency makes a ton of sense given his ability to factor in the passing game and break big plays.
Indianapolis Colts
Team need for 2024: Find pass-catching weapons for Anthony Richardson.
The Colts exceeded expectations in 2023, especially considering that rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson played only four games before suffering a shoulder injury. Richardson looked solid as a passer, completing 59.5% of his passes for 577 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. However, he really shined as a rusher, carrying the ball 25 times for 136 yards and four touchdowns.
Indianapolis will go into 2024 with Richardson at the helm, a solid offensive line, and Jonathan Taylor locked into a long-term contract. However, the team has far more uncertainty at wide receiver. Michael Pittman emerged as a WR1 with Gardner Minshew, racking up 109 receptions on 156 targets for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns. However, he is a free agent and extension talks have been quiet all season.
Realistically, it seems like the Colts will put Pittman on the franchise tag to try and lock him down to a long-term deal. If they do, the team will need a complementary receiver in the passing attack. Josh Downs (68 receptions for 771 yards and two touchdowns) flashed at times but is more of a WR2 or WR3 than an alpha receiver.
Outside of those players, Indianapolis features a bunch of role players at tight end and wide receiver. If this team wants Anthony Richardson to hit his ceiling, they need to invest in a reliable secondary target in the passing attack to utilize Josh Downs in a slot role.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team need for 2024: Overhaul the offensive line.
Jacksonville came into 2023 with huge expectations after a surprising playoff run. The team retained all of their major offensive pieces while also adding Calvin Ridley as wide receiver. Unfortunately, the team fell apart thanks to the terrible play of their offensive line.
The Jaguars finished outside the top 24 in most of FTN’s DVOA Adjusted Line Yards rushing categories, including adjusted line yards (3.50, 31st) and stuffed run rate (24%, 32nd). The problems weren’t limited to the run game either.
FTN’s advanced stats show that Trevor Lawrence had just 2.32 seconds to throw the ball and was pressured on 21% of his passes. Lawrence completed just 45.1% of his passes while under pressure.
The Jaguars have solid pieces on their offensive line, especially at the tackle position. They need to spend resources to upgrade the interior of their offensive line if they want to stay competitive in the AFC South, especially with Houston and Indianapolis rapidly improving in 2023.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team need for 2024: Receivers, receivers, receivers.
Kansas City’s offense failed to meet expectations in 2023 largely thanks to their pass catchers. Travis Kelce seemingly lost a step and the leaps the team hoped for from Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney didn’t come to fruition.
The one saving grace for this unit was the emergence of 2023 second-round pick Rashee Rice. The rookie posted a top-10 yards per route run mark (2.46). FTN’s advanced receiving stats also show that Rice receiving expected points added was 21st in the league this season (50.6), ahead of players like Deebo Samuel, Travis Kelce and Stefon Diggs.
Just three of Kansas City’s pass catchers (Rice, Kelce and Justin Watson) finished in the top 100 receivers in ReEPA this season, which shows just how little this team is getting from their receiving room. Expect Kansas City to prioritize adding talent to their pass catchers to keep their Super Bowl window wide open.
Las Vegas Raiders
Team need for 2024: Figure out the quarterback position long-term.
The Raiders’ plan to move on from Derek Carr made a lot of sense when it happened, but unfortunately, the team executed it very poorly. Las Vegas replaced him by signing Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year, $72.5 million contract in free agency. The veteran lasted just eight starts before being replaced by 2023 rookie Aidan O’Connell.
Neither quarterback played well despite having a strong offensive line and solid pass-catching weapons. The combination of O’Connell and Garoppolo completed 63.1% of their passes for 3,423 yards and 19 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. The Raiders didn’t get much from either player, with both O’Connell (0.07) and Garoppolo (0.08) finishing outside the top-20 in EPA/play.
The Raiders offense will look very similar in 2023 except for Josh Jacobs (most likely). However, this team needs a more reliable quarterback under center if they want to compete in the AFC. At best, the team has found a good backup in O’Connell, but he didn’t show enough to feel confident in his long-term viability as a starting quarterback in his first season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Team need for 2024: Add another wide receiver.
The Chargers were arguably the biggest fantasy disappointment in 2023 relative to expectations. Everyone expected the offense to leap with Kellen Moore taking over the offense and the addition of Quentin Johnston to the passing attack.
Unfortunately, all the 2023 season did was expose how close this team is to having the wheels fall off. Keenan Allen was excellent, but the rest of the offense struggled. Austin Ekeler looked like he lost a step. Mike Williams tore his ACL. And Johnston flopped after being a first-round pick.
The rookie struggled to see the field early in the season and struggled to produce in the limited reps he got. Eventually, the team got Johnston onto the field (due to a litany of injuries), but he ran empty routes and showed questionable hands. The rookie finished his first season with an abysmal 0.85 yards per route run, outside of the top 200 receivers and tied with Dyami Brown, Tommy Tremble and DeAndre Carter.
This pass-catching corps is starting to get old and their first attempt at drafting a rookie went poorly, but the Chargers are in prime position to attack the position again in the 2024 draft with a top-six pick.
Miami Dolphins
Team need for 2024: Add a third pass catcher.
The Dolphins were one of the most unstoppable offenses to begin the 2023 season. Unfortunately, injuries set in and the NFL was able to adjust, leading to another disappointing finish. The Dolphins will head into the 2024 offseason looking for answers to improve their team.
One of the obvious holes that Miami needs to address is their lack of a third-pass catcher in their offense. In 2023, the combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle accounted for 54% of the team’s targets, 59% of the team’s receiving yards, and 56% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. That is fine when everything is clicking, but injuries throughout the season exposed how streamlined Miami’s passing attack is. The next-highest pass catcher (tight end Durham Smythe) finished the season with 35 receptions for 366 yards.
Expect Miami to add to their receiving corps to start building depth to try and take the next step in their quest for a Super Bowl.
New England Patriots
Team need for 2024: Hit on the right quarterback in the draft.
2024 will be another transitionary year for the Patriots decided to part ways with long-time head coach Bill Belichick. It seems very likely that the team will choose to start the Jarod Mayo era by finding a new quarterback as well.
Bringing on a true offensive coordinator did little to fix Mac Jones’ woes from the 2022 season. The third-year quarterback completed 64.9% of his passes in 2023, throwing for 2,120 yards and 10 touchdowns with 12 interceptions before being benched after 11 games. According to FTN’s advanced stats, Jones had a -0.12 EPA per throw and had 26 interception-worthy throws (7.5%), which led all quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts.
Unfortunately for New England, Bailey Zappe did not fare much better. The second-year quarterback completed just 59.9% of his passes for 1,272 yards and six touchdowns with nine interceptions in six starts. Zappe had a worse EPA than Jones (-0.21) despite having just 5.2% of his throws deemed as interception-worthy.
The Patriots have several paths they can go to improve their quarterback room in 2024. They can choose to dip into the veteran market for a player like Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson. They could choose to stand pat with the third pick of the NFL draft and take whoever remains of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. They could also try to trade up to get their pick at the position.
Regardless, the first step this team needs to make is a new talent in the quarterback room to try and win them some games.
New York Jets
Team need for 2024: Add a secondary receiving weapon.
The Jets season was derailed after just four snaps thanks to Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles injury in Week 1. The injury also exposed the complete lack of weapons on the Jets outside of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
New York spent the 2023 offseason bringing in players who had a relationship or familiarity with Aaron Rodgers. That meant adding skill position players like Allen Lazard, Dalvin Cook and Randall Cobb. That trio combined for just 86 targets, 43 receptions, 428 yards and one touchdown reception. Three different players (Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall and tight end Tyler Conklin) surpassed those totals on their own.
Rodgers will be back under center in 2024, but the Jets need to add a legitimate complement to Garrett Wilson at receiver this offseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team need for 2024: Upgrade the quarterback position.
Kenny Pickett came into 2023 as a popular breakout pick at the quarterback position. Unfortunately, that developmental step never happened. Pickett played in just 12 games in 2023, throwing for 2,070 yards and six touchdowns with four interceptions before suffering an injury. Pickett eventually got healthy, but the team opted to start Mason Rudolph due to a hot streak that culminated in a playoff appearance.
As it stands, it seems very unlikely that the Steelers have their quarterback of the future on the roster. Pickett has struggled to move the offense through two seasons now. Mitch Trubisky continued to show that he’s not a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL. Mason Rudolph was a nice story but produced only 719 yards and three touchdowns in three games.
The Steelers have an array of weapons on offense. Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth make a solid trio in the pass-catching department. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren each had solid seasons in the backfield. Even the oft-maligned offensive line showed improvement.
Now the team needs to find stability at the quarterback position. Taking a shot on an experienced rookie (Michael Penix or Bo Nix) makes a lot of sense for Pittsburgh as they look to maximize their competitive window.
Tennessee Titans
Team need for 2024: Improve the offensive line.
The Titans are another team facing significant turnover. Tennessee (surprisingly) moved on from head coach Mike Vrabel will let long-time starters Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry walk in free agency. This team has several needs, but none are more important than the offensive line.
Tennessee had seven different offensive linemen play at least 374 snaps in 2023. None of them finished with a PFF grade above 72.0. Two of them (left tackles Andre Dillard and Jaelyn Duncan) finished with PFF grades under 52.0. Collectively, that group surrendered 43 sacks and 223 pressures. According to FTN’s DVOA adjusted line yards, the Titans had the 31st-ranked adjusted sack rate (11.4%).
Tennessee will need to solidify the line, especially with Will Levis and Tyjae Spears taking over the backfield. Thankfully, they are in prime position to add one of the two top tackles (Notre Dame’s Joe Alt and Penn State’s Olumuyiwa Fashanu) in the NFL draft.
