Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Super Bowl is right around the corner, which means we are on the cusp of the 2024 offseason. Just four teams remain in the NFL playoffs, leaving 28 other teams focusing on the future. Many of the moves made in the coming months will have a fantasy football impact.
Earlier, FTN Fantasy took a look at the top needs for the 16 teams in the AFC heading into the 2024 offseason. This article will look at the top needs of the 16 NFC teams heading into the offseason.
NFL Offseason Team Needs: NFC
Arizona Cardinals
Team need for 2024: Acquire a real WR1 for their offense.
The Cardinals have some needs on offense while they try to build around Kyler Murray. The veteran quarterback looked good during his return from a 2022 ACL injury and established rapport with second-year tight end Trey McBride (53 receptions on 66 targets for 583 yards and two touchdowns). Still, this team could use an upgrade to their actual wide receiver room.
Marquise Brown will be a free agent, but even he has struggled to prove that he can function as a WR1 in his last two seasons with Arizona. The receiver was targeted 208 times in 16 games since joining Arizona but caught just 56% of his passes during that time. If the team chooses to let him walk in free agency, they will have a wide receiver room consisting of Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore and Zach Pascal (Greg Dortch is a restricted free agent).
Arizona needs to add a top-of-the-line talent to their wide receiver room, even if they do bring back Marquise Brown. Thankfully, they have the fourth pick in the draft (behind three QB-needy teams), which means the team could have their pick between prospects like Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers. The team could also target any top free agent who isn’t franchise-tagged.
Atlanta Falcons
Team need for 2024: Find a starting quarterback.
The Falcons have built an imposing offensive line and have invested top-10 picks on cornerstone pieces on offense over the last three seasons. Unfortunately, the quarterback position held the team back in 2023, leading to the firing of Arthur Smith.
The combination of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke completed 59.3% of their passes for 3,726 yards and 17 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. That quarterback play hurt the team’s offensive players. FTN’s expected fantasy points tool highlights just how much the team’s offensive weapons struggled in 2023.
The entire Falcons offense struggled to produce thanks to subpar quarterback play.
Unfortunately, the fix will not be easy in Atlanta. Once the Falcons find a new coaching staff, they can address the quarterback position. Atlanta once again has the eighth overall pick, which will likely be well after the top three rookie options are off the board. Atlanta could choose to trade up, can target a veteran free agent like Russell Wilson, or could try trading for a quarterback like Justin Fields.
Thankfully, it won’t take much to upgrade the Ridder/Heinicke quarterback room which will hopefully help the next coaching staff take advantage of the wealth of weapons in the offense.
Carolina Panthers
Team need for 2024: Build up the offensive line.
Carolina gave up a haul of draft capital to move up to select Bryce Young. Unfortunately, Young was dropped into an abysmal offensive situation that he couldn’t overcome. The 2023 first-overall pick finished completed 59.8% of his passes for 2,877 yards and 11 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.
While it is clear the team needs to add receiving weapons to the offense, a much greater need emerged in the trenches. According to FTN’s advanced stats, Carolina’s offensive line finished 28th in sacks surrendered (63) and 27th in pressure rate (32.3%). Young especially struggled under duress, finishing with the worst completion percentage among starting quarterbacks while under pressure (36.5%).
Having a strong offensive line is crucial for Carolina considering Young’s lack of size in the pocket. Adding a top-flight receiver would certainly help the young quarterback, but establishing a strong pocket could yield better returns. It won’t be easy for Carolina to make a big impact since their first-round draft pick belongs to the Chicago Bears.
Chicago Bears
Team need for 2024: Add a complement to DJ Moore to the passing attack.
The Bears will have a big decision with the first overall pick. Chicago has an opportunity to upgrade at quarterback and reset their quarterback contract timeline by selecting Caleb Williams. Or the team could choose to trade back and amass even more resources to build out their roster.
Regardless of the quarterback decision, Chicago’s offense also has a glaring need in their wide receiver room. DJ Moore (96 receptions for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns) established himself as a legitimate WR1 and Cole Kmet (73 receptions for 719 yards and six touchdowns) has proven to be a serviceable receiving tight end. Still, this team needs another weapon who can help whatever quarterback is under center.
Chicago is set to lose Darnell Mooney and Equanimeous St. Brown to free agency in 2024, leaving them with a wide receiver room consisting of Moore, Tyler Scott and Velus Jones. The Bears have ample cap space to attack the position in free agency or could choose to draft any of the draft’s top receivers with either of their top-10 selections.
Dallas Cowboys
Team need for 2024: Find an impact player at running back.
Dak Prescott emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate in 2023 thanks to massive contributions from CeeDee Lamb (135 receptions for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns) and Jake Ferguson (71 receptions for 761 yards and five touchdowns). The addition of Brandin Cooks (54 receptions for 657 yards and eight touchdowns) was also an excellent addition to the passing attack.
However, the team did not get what they hoped from Tony Pollard in his first season as the unquestioned leader of the backfield. Pollard handled a career-high in carries (255) but had a career-worst yards per carry (4.0). FTN’s advanced stats also show that Pollard averaged a mediocre 1.89 yards per attempt against stacked boxes. Pollard has always been known for his explosiveness in the run game, but just 8.3% of his carries went for 10-plus yards in 2023.
Pollard is once again set to be a free agent, which means the team will need to find its feature back heading into 2024. There is a chance they could bring back Pollard (and hope that 2023 was because of his 2022 ankle injury) or could dip into a very talented free-agent class. Either way, this team needs a more consistent run game to help out Dak in the passing attack in 2024.
Detroit Lions
Team need for 2024: Acquire another receiver.
The Lions’ offense features a top-flight offensive line, a fearsome backfield duo and excellent receiving options in Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. It isn’t surprising that Detroit will be playing for an opportunity to represent the NFC in football given the expectations on this roster. And while a majority of their offseason work should be focused on the defensive side of the ball, that doesn’t mean there aren’t areas to improve on offense.
One area Detroit could focus on before the 2024 season is adding another wide receiver to their offensive repertoire. According to FTN’s advanced data, Amon-Ra St. Brown is sixth in the NFL in expected points added as a receiver with a mark of 80.43. Kalif Raymond was the only other Lions receiver to finish in the top 50 at the position (30.55).
Detroit drafted Jameson Williams early in the 2022 draft, but his ACL recovery and suspension have hindered his progress. While he did show flashes in his second season, it is hard to envision him as more than a deep threat at this time. The Lions should be targeting a receiver upgrade to capitalize on their Super Bowl window this offseason.
Green Bay Packers
Team need for 2024: Acquire a running back to complement Aaron Jones.
The Packers feature the youngest offense in the NFL, but it was a steady veteran that helped stabilize their offense down the stretch. From Week 15 to Week 17, veteran running back Aaron Jones took advantage of an AJ Dillon injury, handling 63 carries for 358 yards. Jones didn’t find the end zone during that stretch, but he proved that he still has something in the tank.
The Packers head into the 2024 offseason with a massive need in the backfield. Jones isn’t getting any younger and the team needs to address a complement to him in the backfield. The Dillon experiment continued to fail in a contract year, with the fourth-year running back averaging just 3.4 yards per carry in an expanded workload. Dillon finished the 2023 season with the worst plus/minus of any Packers offensive player in expected fantasy points (-27.1).
Expect the Packers to add to their backfield to keep Aaron Jones fresh in 2024. The team should have ample options in free agency or take another swing at another early down grinder (like Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen) in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Los Angeles Rams
Team need for 2024: Add a field-stretching tight end.
The Rams exceeded all expectations in 2023 by getting amazing seasons from second-year running back Kyren Williams and rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua. Those players, combined with veterans Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, should be enough to keep the Rams competitive for at least a few more seasons.
One clear area that the Rams should target in the 2024 offseason is a tight end who can function as a receiving weapon. Tyler Higbee (47 receptions for 495 yards and two touchdowns) is a solid player but suffered a late-season ACL tear. However, Higbee does very little to stretch the field even when healthy as evidenced by his 1.15 yards per route run mark in 2024.
The Rams would be wise to target a player who can exploit matchups in the middle of the field while teams are struggling to defend Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in the passing attack going forward.
Minnesota Vikings
Team need for 2024: Figure out the quarterback position.
The common theme before the 2023 season was that it would be Kirk Cousins’ final season as a Minnesota Viking. However, a midseason Achilles injury gave the Vikings a glimpse at the future and may have forced them to reconsider those plans.
Cousins started the first eight games of the season and completed 69.5% of his passes for 2,331 yards and 18 touchdowns with just five interceptions. After his injury, Minnesota tried three different starting quarterbacks (Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall). In nine games, that trio combined to throw for 2,369 yards with 12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
The Vikings do not have a successor to Kirk Cousins on their roster. That leaves the team in a perilous position of trying to upgrade the quarterback position with a middle-of-the-first-round pick. The Vikings have a solid receiving duo headlined by Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but they need to find somebody who can reliably get them the ball this offseason if Cousins isn’t the answer.
New Orleans Saints
Team need for 2024: Build up the offensive line.
The Saints cap situation means that most of the offense will be locked into 2024. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Despite some ups and downs, the team got solid seasons from Derek Carr (3,878 passing yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions), Alvin Kamara (1,160 all-purpose yards in 13 games) and Chris Olave (87 receptions for 1,123 yards and five touchdowns).
The team also has solid ancillary pieces in Taysom Hill, Jamaal Williams, KenDre Miller, Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson. However, one area that could use a significant talent upgrade is the offensive line.
Injuries and ineffectiveness were the calling cards of the Saints’ offensive line in 2023. The team was forced to bench 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning due to awful play. Then they lost right tackle Ryan Ramczyk to a career-threatening knee injury. The Saints held it together well this season, allowing just a 24.2% pressure rate in 2023, but they need some of these players to pan out.
The team will likely need to free up the funds to bring back Andrus Peat after he moved from left guard to left tackle this season, but that solves only one problem. The Saints need to build up the offensive line to get the most out of an offense that will return in 2024.
New York Giants
Team need for 2024: Pick a position.
2023 was a disaster for the New York Giants. The team struggled to build on their 2023 success thanks to an injury to Daniel Jones and the lack of playmakers on the perimeter. Additionally, the team’s offensive line development took a step back thanks to a multitude of injuries.
Heading into 2024, it is impossible to pick just one position that will help the Giants. The team needs better play from a (hopefully) healthy Daniel Jones. They need to figure out the backfield now that Saquon Barkley is set to be a free agent after a season on the franchise tag. The team needs to improve a receiver corps that had just three players (Darius Slayton, Darren Waller and Wan’Dale Robinson) surpass 500 receiving yards. And they need to figure out an offensive line that led the NFL in sacks surrendered (84) by nearly 20 sacks.
The good news in New York is that the team will be picking sixth and will likely have their choice between an offensive line upgrade (Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu) or adding a receiver (Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze). However, those moves need to happen in conjunction with a major talent overhaul through free agency.
Philadelphia Eagles
Team need for 2024: Upgrade the backfield.
The Eagles looked like a dominant force through their first 11 games before ultimately falling off at the end of the season. Thankfully, the team will return the core of their offense in 2024. The loss of Jason Kelce at center looms large for this team moving forward, but the most actionable upgrade they can make heading into the offseason would be at the running back position.
Philadelphia acquired D’Andre Swift during the 2023 offseason and got solid production from him as the lead back in their offense. Swift finished with career highs in carries (229) and rushing yards (1,049) while totaling five rushing touchdowns. However, FTN’s advanced stats show that Swift finished 98th among all running backs in yards after contact per attempt (1.97). Just 22 of Swift’s 229 attempts went for 10-plus yards in 2023.
Swift is scheduled to be a free agent during the 2024 offseason, leaving Philadelphia with a big hole to fill on their offense. The team could bring back the Philadelphia native or could search for a more effective rusher in a loaded free-agent class. Either way, running back is arguably Philadelphia’s biggest need heading into the 2024 offseason.
San Francisco 49ers
Team need for 2024: Build up the offensive line.
The 49ers featured one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL centered around a solid quarterback getting the ball to explosive playmakers. While the team has done very well this season, one area that could use an upgrade is their offensive line.
Trent Williams remains maybe the best left tackle in the NFL. However, the cast around him was very underwhelming in 2023. The 49ers had six offensive linemen play over 500 snaps this season and only two (Trent Williams and Jon Feliciano) had a PFF grade above 66.0. Williams and Feliciano were also the only two offensive linemen to allow fewer than 28 pressures on the season.
Unfortunately for San Francisco, Trent Williams isn’t getting any younger and Jon Feliciano is set to be a free agent. It would be wise to bring both players back, but this team also needs an infusion of talent, specifically at the guard position. The 2024 draft class doesn’t have a ton of great interior offensive linemen, but the team could prioritize players like Washington’s Troy Fautanu or Kansas State’s Cooper Beebe in the draft.
Upgrading the offensive line could make an efficient offense even more formidable in 2024.
Seattle Seahawks
Team need for 2024: Build up the offensive line.
The Seahawks are set at most offensive positions. Few teams can match the firepower of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at wide receiver. The team also has a solid two-man backfield with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Geno Smith isn’t a top-16 quarterback, but he is serviceable and can get the ball to the team’s weapons. By default, the area that needs the most help comes in the trenches.
Injuries hampered the play of Seattle’s offensive line in 2023, with just two players (center Evan Brown and guard Damien Lewis) playing in 16 games for the team. Seattle got stellar rookie seasons from tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas in 2022, but they were followed up with injury-riddled sophomore season plagued with inconsistency.
According to FTN’s pressure report, the Seahawks allowed just 38 sacks in 2023, 10th-best of any team in the NFL. However, the team allowed pressure on 30.8% of dropbacks, which was ninth worst in the league.
The Seahawks have ample weapons in their offense, they just need to have enough time to get the ball to them. One of the first tasks for the new coaching regime will be to upgrade the offensive line to get the offense back on track in 2024.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team need for 2024: Keep the band together (especially offensive coordinator Dave Canales).
The Buccaneers exceeded all expectations in 2023 thanks to an excellent season from Baker Mayfield (4,044 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions), Rachaad White (1,539 all-purpose yards and nine total touchdowns) and Mike Evans (1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns). Looking to 2024, the best thing the team could do is keep this core together for one more season.
Both Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans are slated to hit free agency in 2024. Despite Mayfield’s career arc and Evans’ age, both players have earned the right to get paid. The NFC South will once again be a very winnable division and the team gave the Detroit Lions a solid run in the NFC Divisional Round to warrant giving this group another shot.
More important will be retaining offensive coordinator Dave Canales. Canales was excellent in his first season helping the offense transition from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield. Despite the clear downgrade at quarterback, the Buccaneers maintained a similar offensive DVOA ranking (20th) compared to 2022 (18th). Canales has a reputation as a coach who gets the most out of quarterbacks given the success of his last two projects (Mayfield in 2023 and Geno Smith in 2022).
Undoubtedly, teams will start to reach out to Canales to be their head coach given his track record of success as an offensive coach. The Buccaneers should prioritize retaining him for at least one more season to see if they can push this team deeper into the playoffs in 2024.
Washington Commanders
Team need for 2024: Pick the right quarterback of the future.
At the start of the season, it looked like the Washington Commanders had unearthed a late-round gem in quarterback Sam Howell. Through Week 10, Howell completed 66.5% of his passes for 2,783 yards and 17 touchdowns with nine interceptions. However, the league eventually caught up to Howell and exposed the flaws in his game.
Over the final seven games of the season, Howell’s completion percentage plummeted to 57.6%. The quarterback threw for just 1,163 yards with four touchdowns and 12 interceptions during that stretch. The Commanders even decided to bench Howell for Jacoby Brissett before a hamstring injury thrust Howell back into the starting role.
Howell’s shortcomings gave the Commanders the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. At the very least, Washington will have the ability to take the second quarterback in the 2024 class. There will be plenty of rumors connecting Washington to Caleb Williams since he’s a hometown kid, but that move would likely require a trade-up.
Still, the Commanders have solid pieces in their backfield and at receiver. They just need to identify the right quarterback to get the most out of them.
