Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DVOA Articles
NFL
DVOA
Preseason Award Picks Part II
More analysis of NFL awards for 2024, looking at Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and who will win the Super Bowl in New Orleans.
Bryan Knowles
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Preseason Award Picks Part I
Bryan and Cale take a look at the most likely award winners for 2024: the best bets, the strong longshots, and the best values.
Bryan Knowles
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
AFC West Over/Unders 2024
Is anybody going to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West? No, but you can still bet on the over/unders for those other teams!
Bryan Knowles
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
AFC South Over/Unders 2024
The AFC South is now an exciting division where all four teams have a quarterback on a rookie contract. Can the other three teams stop the Houston Texans?
Bryan Knowles
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
AFC North Over/Unders 2024
Who will win the NFL's most lauded division? Can the Ravens dominate again, are the Bengals back, or is it all about the Browns defense?
Bryan Knowles
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
AFC East Over/Unders 2024
Can the Dolphins get past the Bills? Will the Jets finally put up the big season with Aaron Rodgers? How bad are the Patriots?
Bryan Knowles
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
NFC West Over/Unders 2024
Can anyone catch the 49ers in the NFC West, or even the whole NFC? Are the Rams and Seahawks going to go over or under their season win totals?
Bryan Knowles
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
NFC South Over/Unders 2024
Could the Saints be the NFC South favorites? Could the Bucs repeat? Or is it time for the Falcons and new QB Kirk Cousins?
Bryan Knowles
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
NFC North Over/Unders 2024
Can the Packers carry over last year's late success? Are the Lions really Super Bowl contenders? Plus the Bears and Vikings.
Bryan Knowles
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
NFC East Over/Unders 2024
Are the Eagles properly the favorite in the NFC East? Are the Commanders on the rise? Plus, Cowboys and Giants.
Bryan Knowles
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Slot vs. Wide 2023: Defenses
Let's take a look at which defenses and cornerbacks were best against receivers in the slot vs. out wide in 2023.
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Quarterbacks Throwing to the Slot vs. Wide 2023
Looking at how QBs did throwing wide vs. to the slot in 2023. Was Patrick Mahomes' "off year" entirely based on screens and quick outs?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
RB/TE in the Slot in 2023
Taking a look at which running backs and tight ends get the most usage and have the most success when lined up in WR positions.
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Slot vs. Wide 2023: Wide Receivers
Taking a look at which WR succeeded in the slot vs. out wide in 2023. Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb may surprise you!
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
FTN Football Almanac 2024: Now Live!
Learn more about the FTN Football Almanac 2024, plus download the free sample L.A. Chargers chapter!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Defensive Plus-Minus and YAC+ 2023
Taking a look at which defenses were best at preventing completions and YAC given the location of the passes against them, led by the Browns, Ravens, and Jets.
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2023 YAC+: Another Huge 49ers Year
Taking a look at which receivers had the most YAC over expectation in 2023, a stat where the 49ers always do very well.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Receiving Plus-Minus for 2023
Looking at the most efficient receivers in 2023: CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, and... Evan Engram?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Passing Plus-Minus for 2023
Something Derek Carr was good at: completing passes compared to expectation. Brock Purdy was even better.
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Caused Pressure Rate for 2023 Offenses
Can we learn something from how often offensive pressure is caused by a blown block? The Arizona offensive line says yes.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Defense by Number of Pass Rushers 2023
We know the Vikings blitzed more than anyone else in 2023. Were they good at it?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Defenses and Pressure 2023
The Lions got a ton of pass pressure, and they needed it because of secondary issues. Plus more defensive numbers from 2023!
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
QBs Under Pressure in 2023
Jared Goff had great numbers in 2023, but not when he was under pressure. We look at all the QBs.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Fantasy Football: The Early Days
An excerpt from the new book "The History of Fantasy Sports" takes a look at the roots of fantasy football, during the early days of the AFL in Oakland.
Shaun Evans
NFL
DVOA
Failed Completions 2023
A stat where Brock Purdy was great and Patrick Mahomes was poor? It also wasn't a great year for Bryce Young or Derek Carr when it came to complete passes that still were unsuccessful plays.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
2024 NFL Draft Report Card Report
Here's our annual look at draft report cards. It was a good year in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia!
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Snap-Weighted Size 2023: Defense
Are teams trying to get smaller at defensive back? Plus more defensive numbers from 2023.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Snap-Weighted Size 2023: Offense
Shanahan and McVay influenced coaches like their teams smaller, while the Ravens go big.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
The 2018 NFL Draft, Six Years Later
What does it mean that analytics did such a bad job of projecting Josh Allen and the other quarterbacks of 2018? We look at the whole draft with the advantage of time.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
1980 Player DVOA and DYAR: Earl Campbell Goes Beast Mode
We’re continuing our look at 1979 and 1980 DVOA ratings with the unveiling of the 1980 player DVOA and DYAR ratings. Earl Campbell was an absolute beast in 1980, even better than he was in 1979. Dan Fouts had another great year. The Falcons and Browns had very strong offenses, and the Patriots had a […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
1980 DVOA: Eagles Can’t Climb the Summit
The Philadelphia Eagles top the ratings as the best team of 1980, narrowly surpassing the surprising Atlanta Falcons. This makes two straight years on top for the Eagles, as they also rank No. 1 for the 1981 season. The Oakland Raiders, who became the first wild-card team since the merger to win the Super Bowl […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
1979 Player DVOA and DYAR: The Greatness of Staubach
Let’s continue our look back at 1979 and 1980 DVOA ratings. Today we have player DVOA and DYAR from the 1979 season. It was a good year for the Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots offenses. It was a very good year for Earl Campbell and the Houston Oilers running game. A reminder, here’s the complete schedule […]
Aaron Schatz