FTN NBA Betting Show: November 6th
Alex Christenson
Prop God
Dane Martinez
At the halfway point of the 2024 season, most of the divisional races have come into clear focus. The Bills and Chiefs are running away with the AFC East and West, with the Texans not far behind in the AFC South despite a pratfall last Thursday. Other divisions are becoming clear two-horse races – Ravens versus Steelers in the AFC North, Falcons versus Buccaneers in the NFC South, Eagles versus Commanders in the NFC East and Lions versus Vikings in the NFC North. Nothing quite decided there yet, but at least we know the contenders.
And then there’s the NFC West, which is filled with nonsense and craziness.
Just one game separates first and last place in the NFC West through nine weeks, with the 5-4 Arizona Cardinals in first and the 4-5 Seattle Seahawks in fourth. That’s not quite the closest race we’ve ever seen – remember, the 2021 AFC West had all four teams at 5-3 or 5-4 in 2021! – but it’s far closer than we were expecting from a division that some guy on the internet claimed was the “easiest division to sort top-to-bottom” before the season began.
Our advanced numbers have trouble separating the four, as well. Our current DVOA-powered playoff odds have the Cardinals and 49ers more or less tied in their chances to win the division – Arizona at 36.2% and San Francisco at 33.0%. The Rams aren’t too far behind, hanging in at 24.2%, and while the Seahawks odds plummeted after losing to Los Angeles in overtime, they’re hanging in there at 6.6%. In other words, it’s a hot mess, and no matter which team you root for, the odds are someone else will win the division.
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