Week 9 DVOA: Lions Keep Climbing

The Detroit Lions have not missed a step, even since Aidan Hutchinson went out for the season with a broken leg. The Loins have won three of their past four games by double digits, including this week’s 24-14 victory over a good Green Bay Packers team. They are not just on top of our DVOA ratings at midseason. They are historically good.

The Lions are up to 46.1% DVOA this week, which makes them the fifth-best team ever measured by DVOA through eight games.

Best Overall DVOA Through 8 Games, 1979-2024
YEAR	TEAM	W-L	DVOA	RK	OFF	RK	DEF	RK	ST	RK
2007	NE	8-0	71.9%	1	41.8%	1	-22.9%	2	7.3%	5
1991	WAS	8-0	51.9%	1	18.7%	3	-19.9%	3	13.3%	1
1985	CHI	8-0	48.3%	1	21.5%	3	-21.6%	1	5.2%	3
2007	IND	7-1	46.4%	2	28.1%	3	-22.5%	3	-4.3%	23
2024	DET	7-1	46.1%	1	19.8%	3	-16.0%	3	10.4%	1
1996	GB	7-1	46.1%	1	12.5%	5	-28.8%	1	4.9%	5
2001	PHI	5-3	44.8%	1	14.0%	4	-18.9%	1	11.9%	1
2015	NE	8-0	44.7%	1	22.6%	2	-15.2%	6	6.9%	1
2003	KC	8-0	43.8%	1	21.6%	3	-8.5%	8	13.7%	1
2018	KC	7-1	42.8%	1	33.2%	1	-0.9%	17	8.8%	1
1990	NYG	8-0	42.8%	1	13.8%	3	-22.7%	2	6.3%	1
2007	DAL	7-1	42.4%	3	28.9%	2	-13.5%	6	0.0%	14

Just below this table, you’ll find other Super Bowl champions including the 1995 Cowboys, 1998 Broncos, and 1999 Rams. You’ll also find last year’s Baltimore Ravens.

Yes, 2007 was a strange year where three teams had all-time great first halves to the season and not one of those teams actually won the Super Bowl.

Our DVOA playoff odds now give the Lions a 27.1% chance of winning Super Bowl LIX, and they make it in almost half our simulations. This morning, they traded for edge rusher Za’Darius Smith to try to help fill the hole left by Hutchinson’s injury.

Ravens Offense Still a Powerhouse

Speaking of the Ravens, they are also historically good… at least on one side of the ball. The Ravens are the fifth-best offense in DVOA history through nine games. Numbers here may be slightly different than the table above because of the difference between ratings after eight and nine games.

Best Offense DVOA Through 9 Games, 1979-2024
YEAR	TEAM	W-L	OFF	RK	PASS	RK	RUN	RK
2018	KC	8-1	40.3%	1	82.5%	1	1.9%	5
2007	NE	9-0	40.3%	1	79.5%	1	9.8%	7
1982	SD	6-3	38.1%	1	62.1%	1	17.5%	1
1999	WAS	5-4	38.0%	1	54.4%	2	32.4%	1
2024	BAL	6-3	37.7%	1	77.4%	1	19.7%	2
2004	IND	6-3	36.0%	1	75.2%	1	5.4%	7
1995	DAL	8-1	35.6%	1	67.8%	1	22.0%	1
1984	MIA	9-0	34.9%	1	73.2%	1	7.3%	2
1993	SF	6-3	34.8%	1	55.3%	2	22.7%	1
1998	DEN	9-0	34.5%	1	60.7%	1	27.5%	1
2002	KC	4-5	32.2%	1	44.7%	1	24.9%	1
1991	BUF	8-1	32.0%	1	61.7%	1	9.7%	4

The Ravens fell behind the Lions in run efficiency this week but their passing game is stellar. For all the attention given to Jared Goff and his lack of incomplete passes, the Lions only rank 11th in pass offense, in part because of a schedule where they’ve played defenses that are poor against the pass but strong against the run.

How Good Are The Undefeated Chiefs?

Third in DVOA, you will find the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. There’s been plenty of discussion this year about how strong the Chiefs are compared to a “typical” undefeated team. Six of their eight wins have come by a touchdown or less, including last night’s overtime 30-24 victory over Tampa Bay.

There are 25 teams since 1979 that started the season at 8-0, and the Chiefs rank 18th in DVOA among those 25 teams. The best comparison for the Chiefs would probably be the 1990 San Francisco 49ers. That 49ers team was also coming off two consecutive Super Bowl titles and going for a third. They started 8-0 but five of those wins were by less than a touchdown, and they ranked “only” fourth in DVOA. The 49ers won two more big victories and then at 10-0 they lost to the rival Los Angeles Rams for their first defeat of the season. Eventually, the 49ers finished the season fourth in DVOA and they lost a close game in the NFC Championship, 15-13 to the team that led the NFL in DVOA that year, the New York Giants.

Here’s a look at the Chiefs and the other teams in the bottom 13 of 8-0 teams by DVOA:

Lowest Overall DVOA at 8-0, 1979-2024
YEAR	TEAM	W-L	DVOA	RK
2009	IND	8-0	30.9%	4
2015	CIN	8-0	30.9%	3
2005	IND	8-0	30.5%	2
2018	LAR	8-0	29.6%	2
2011	GB	8-0	29.2%	1
2024	KC	8-0	29.1%	3
1990	SF	8-0	26.5%	4
2020	PIT	8-0	24.4%	4
2008	TEN	8-0	19.6%	3
2015	CAR	8-0	17.6%	6
2012	ATL	8-0	17.4%	9
2006	IND	8-0	17.2%	8
2013	KC	8-0	14.7%	10

The dozen teams on that table other than this year’s Chiefs ended up 1-3 in the Super Bowl, with the 2006 Colts as the only champion. The top dozen 8-0 teams by DVOA, on the other hand, ended up 5-4 in the Super Bowl. However, there’s something the Chiefs have that the 1990 49ers and the other teams on that table didn’t have. They just added a bona fide No. 1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, so DVOA is likely underrating their future performance.

The Awful Titans Special Teams

One more table to get to with historical numbers. Last week, we noted that the Tennessee Titans had the fourth-worst special teams unit measured by DVOA through seven games. Well, this week the Titans allowed Marcus Jones of the Patriots punt returns of 44 and 25 yards. Return man Jha’Quan Jackson fumbled on both a kickoff and a punt return, although the Titans recovered both loose balls. Neither of his kick returns reached the 30. The Titans now rank as the second-worst special teams unit measured by DVOA behind only the 2010 Chargers, the team that famously led the NFL in both yards gained and yards allowed but missed the playoffs because the special teams were so horrendous.

Worst Special Teams DVOA Through 8 Games, 1979-2024
YEAR	TEAM	W-L	DVOA
2010	SD	3-5	-19.9%
2024	TEN	2-6	-16.6%
2013	WAS	3-5	-15.3%
2008	MIN	4-4	-14.5%
2013	HOU	2-6	-14.3%
1999	CIN	1-7	-13.3%
1981	TB	4-4	-13.2%
1997	PHI	4-4	-12.8%
1995	PHI	5-3	-12.7%
1994	HOIL	1-7	-12.7%
2013	NYG	2-6	-12.3%
1997	STL	2-6	-12.0%

Pass Funnels vs. Run Funnels

One other thing I wanted to get to this week, which we haven’t done in the DVOA commentary yet this year. We talk a lot about funnel defenses, defenses which drive opponents to run or pass because they are so one-sided. For those of you who haven’t had a chance to look at run/pass splits for 2024, I wanted to go over the top run and pass funnels of the season so far.

Pass Funnels:

Baltimore Ravens (No. 3 run, No. 23 pass)

Arizona Cardinals (No. 11 run, No. 24 pass)

Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 12 run, No. 32 pass)

Run Funnels:

Chicago Bears (No. 4 pass, No. 30 run)

New Orleans Saints (No. 13 pass, No. 31 run)

New York Jets (No. 11 pass, No. 24 run)

San Francisco 49ers (No. 2 pass, No. 19 run)

Full Updated DVOA Table

These are the FTN DVOA and DAVE ratings through nine weeks of 2024. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) Opponent adjustments are currently at 90% strength.

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. The projections are adjusted for a few quarterback changes as well as injuries and trades. DAVE is currently 45% preseason forecast and 55% actual performance for teams with eight games and 36% forecast with 64% actual performance for teams with nine games.

RK	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	TOTAL DAVE	RK	W-L	OFF. DVOA	OFF. RK	DEF. DVOA	DEF. RK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RK
1	DET	46.1%	1	29.6%	2	7-1	19.8%	3	-16.0%	3	10.4%	1
2	BAL	37.7%	2	31.6%	1	6-3	37.7%	1	-0.9%	14	-1.0%	19
3	KC	29.1%	3	23.9%	3	8-0	12.5%	9	-15.5%	4	1.1%	13
4	MIN	25.7%	4	11.1%	9	6-2	3.3%	14	-23.5%	1	-1.0%	20
5	SF	21.2%	6	19.4%	4	4-4	13.9%	7	-13.3%	5	-5.9%	30
6	BUF	21.2%	5	18.0%	5	7-2	17.8%	4	-5.9%	12	-2.5%	26
7	WAS	19.2%	9	12.4%	6	7-2	21.6%	2	6.1%	26	3.7%	7
8	GB	14.5%	8	11.3%	8	6-3	13.6%	8	-3.5%	13	-2.6%	27
9	PHI	13.3%	12	8.4%	10	6-2	6.3%	13	-6.0%	10	1.0%	14
10	PIT	12.3%	11	3.4%	14	6-2	-3.2%	20	-8.2%	8	7.3%	3
11	HOU	12.1%	7	11.5%	7	6-3	-5.6%	23	-16.1%	2	1.6%	10
12	TB	11.6%	15	6.1%	11	4-5	14.3%	6	0.7%	16	-2.1%	25
13	LAC	11.5%	14	0.8%	17	5-3	-0.8%	16	-12.3%	6	-0.1%	17
14	ATL	9.1%	13	3.7%	13	6-3	14.4%	5	3.8%	21	-1.6%	23
15	ARI	6.2%	19	-0.2%	18	5-4	7.3%	11	1.8%	18	0.7%	15
16	DEN	5.8%	10	2.0%	15	5-4	-11.0%	24	-11.6%	7	5.2%	4
RK	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	TOTAL DAVE	RK	W-L	OFF. DVOA	OFF. RK	DEF. DVOA	DEF. RK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RK
17	CIN	3.8%	17	5.7%	12	4-5	11.0%	10	6.0%	25	-1.2%	21
18	SEA	0.2%	16	-0.8%	19	4-5	-1.8%	17	-0.4%	15	1.6%	11
19	LAR	-2.8%	21	1.1%	16	4-4	6.4%	12	5.8%	24	-3.4%	28
20	IND	-5.2%	20	-7.6%	23	4-5	-2.8%	19	3.5%	20	1.1%	12
21	NO	-5.9%	22	-6.8%	22	2-7	-4.6%	22	5.0%	23	3.7%	6
22	NYJ	-7.7%	24	-3.0%	20	3-6	-2.3%	18	0.9%	17	-4.5%	29
23	CHI	-9.0%	18	-9.1%	26	4-4	-16.9%	27	-5.9%	11	1.9%	8
24	NYG	-14.7%	25	-14.8%	27	2-7	-3.8%	21	4.4%	22	-6.4%	31
25	DAL	-15.5%	26	-4.5%	21	3-5	-11.2%	25	12.5%	29	8.1%	2
26	JAX	-16.1%	23	-8.9%	25	2-7	1.4%	15	21.7%	31	4.2%	5
27	MIA	-26.2%	29	-8.9%	24	2-6	-15.4%	26	9.4%	28	-1.4%	22
28	TEN	-29.6%	27	-20.3%	28	2-6	-21.2%	28	-8.1%	9	-16.6%	32
29	LV	-30.0%	28	-23.5%	29	2-7	-22.6%	30	7.7%	27	0.3%	16
30	CLE	-39.2%	30	-23.7%	30	2-7	-35.3%	32	1.9%	19	-2.0%	24
31	NE	-39.7%	31	-30.7%	31	2-7	-23.0%	31	18.4%	30	1.7%	9
32	CAR	-44.9%	32	-31.9%	32	2-7	-22.0%	29	22.1%	32	-0.8%	18