NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Last year, with the help of FTN Data charting, I introduced a new metric that measured cornerback coverage using DVOA. The cornerback coverage metric looks at every snap with a cornerback in coverage, and then how often he either allows a successful reception, earns a DPI penalty, or gets an interception. The numbers are adjusted for opponent and for where the receiver in question was lined up before the play. Receivers lined up in the slot tend to have more success than those lined up wide, but the receivers lined up wide are often the more talented and overall successful players.
It takes some time to put these numbers together every couple of weeks, but until we get them automated so that they can appear on StatsHub, I want to present the numbers to our subscribers every few weeks during the season. (Here’s the article from after Week 6 if you want to compare it to the current numbers.) Below, you’ll find a table with every cornerback with at least 140 coverage snaps through Week 11. For non-subscribers, I’ve got the top dozen cornerbacks of the year so far. There’s a very surprising name at No. 1.
| Rk | Player | Team | DVOA | Routes |
| 1 | Darrell Baker Jr. | TEN | -61.5% | 166 |
| 2 | Jaylen Watson | KC | -48.2% | 196 |
| 3 | Marshon Lattimore | NO | -46.7% | 227 |
| 4 | Beanie Bishop Jr. | PIT | -45.6% | 260 |
| 5 | Pat Surtain II | DEN | -44.8% | 311 |
| 6 | Jaire Alexander | GB | -42.9% | 212 |
| 7 | Christian Benford | BUF | -41.5% | 357 |
| 8 | Tarheeb Still | LAC | -40.3% | 242 |
| 9 | Byron Murphy Jr. | MIN | -40.3% | 361 |
| 10 | Jaylon Johnson | CHI | -39.5% | 310 |
| 11 | Tykee Smith | TB | -35.6% | 254 |
| 12 | Trevon Diggs | DAL | -34.4% | 294 |
The first thing you need to remember about cornerback stats is that they are very inconsistent. Nothing in a small sample should be taken as proof that a player is a secret superstar or a complete flop. Sometimes coverage DVOA will swing 80 percentage points between Weeks 1-9 and Weeks 10-18. I would make sure to always judge cornerbacks with a combination of stats and reputation earned from film study.
OK, so, that being said, who the hell is Darrell Baker Jr.?
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