2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Now updated with Monday Night Football.
Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth caught all three of his targets this week for 48 yards and a touchdown. And it was while looking up his stats on the year that I realized Freiermuth has a chance to set the all-time record for catch rate for a tight ends.
It turns out it’s been a great year for catch rate in general. Four different tight ends from 2024 are challenging for that all-time record. Meanwhile, Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown currently has the second-highest catch rate ever for a wide receiver with at least 75 targets, trailing only Michael Thomas in 2018.
Catch rate is about more than just catching passes, of course. This is a stat that’s very dependent on the quarterback, because the raw total of targets doesn’t note which targets are specifically inaccurate. It’s also about getting open so that you draw the throw and the defender can’t knock the ball out of your hands. Catch rate is very dependent on average depth of target, because it’s going to be easier to catch shorter passes. It’s not a perfect metric, but the performances of the stars of the 2024 season are mighty impressive.
First, wide receivers. Both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Khalil Shakir appear on this table of the top 10 catch rates for receivers with at least 75 targets. I’ve also included average depth of target for each player who played since we start having that data in 2005.
| Top Catch Rate by WR, min. 75 passes 1979-2024 | ||||||||
| Year | Player | Team | Rec | Pass | Yds | TD | C% | aDOT |
| 2018 | Michael Thomas | NO | 125 | 147 | 1405 | 9 | 85.0% | 8.0 |
| 2024 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 81 | 98 | 863 | 9 | 82.7% | 7.9 |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas | NO | 149 | 185 | 1727 | 9 | 80.5% | 8.2 |
| 2021 | Hunter Renfrow | LV | 103 | 128 | 1038 | 9 | 80.5% | 6.5 |
| 2024 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | 65 | 81 | 735 | 3 | 80.2% | 5.1 |
| 1989 | John Taylor | SF | 60 | 75 | 1077 | 10 | 80.0% | — |
| 2020 | Curtis Samuel | CAR | 77 | 97 | 851 | 3 | 79.4% | 7.4 |
| 2023 | Rashee Rice | KC | 79 | 102 | 938 | 8 | 77.5% | 5.0 |
| 2020 | Chris Godwin | TB | 65 | 84 | 840 | 7 | 77.4% | 10.2 |
| 2007 | Wes Welker | NE | 112 | 145 | 1175 | 8 | 77.2% | 5.2 |
Next, the tight ends. Freiermuth is almost at the record, but so are three other tight ends this season! The next few names on the list also include multiple names from 2023. These have been good years for tight end catch rates.
| Top Catch Rate by TE, min. 50 passes 1979-2024 | ||||||||
| Year | Player | Team | Rec | Pass | Yds | TD | C% | aDOT |
| 2020 | Robert Tonyan | GB | 52 | 59 | 586 | 11 | 88.1% | 8.1 |
| 2024 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 44 | 50 | 472 | 5 | 88.0% | 5.9 |
| 2024 | Mark Andrews | BAL | 43 | 51 | 490 | 7 | 84.3% | 10.1 |
| 2024 | Cole Kmet | CHI | 42 | 50 | 448 | 3 | 84.0% | 7.8 |
| 2024 | George Kittle | SF | 56 | 67 | 800 | 8 | 83.6% | 8.4 |
| 1995 | Irv Smith | NO | 45 | 55 | 466 | 3 | 81.8% | — |
| 2023 | Cole Kmet | CHI | 73 | 90 | 719 | 6 | 81.1% | 6.3 |
| 2018 | Austin Hooper | ATL | 71 | 88 | 660 | 4 | 80.7% | 6.8 |
| 1989 | Eric Sievers | NE | 54 | 67 | 615 | 0 | 80.6% | — |
| 2023 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 73 | 91 | 673 | 2 | 80.2% | 5.9 |
Neither Freiermuth nor St. Brown appear on this week’s top tables for DYAR in Week 14, but one of the 2024 players on these tables does! Read on to see who it is.
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