DVOA Articles

NFL DVOA

January 20, 2025

Divisional Round Quick Reads: Daniels Flies High

Jayden Daniels had the biggest day of the weekend by DYAR. Plus: Why was Saquon Barkley's DYAR so low with so many yards?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 20, 2025

NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX Revised as of 1/27/25, through Week 21 Compiled by Mike Harris The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 20, 2025

Divisional Round DVOA: Two Teams Stand Out in Final Four

We're down to the final four, but DVOA clearly sees two teams as clear favorites for Super Bowl LIX: Philadelphia and Buffalo.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 17, 2025

Ravens at Bills: DVOA Preview

Here we go with the MVP Bowl: Two of the best quarterbacks in the league, two of the best teams by DVOA, only one of them can move on to the AFC Championship Game.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 17, 2025

Rams at Eagles: DVOA Preview

Can the Rams stop Saquon Barkley this time? And do their defensive strengths match what the Eagles like to do on offense?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 16, 2025

Texans at Chiefs: DVOA Preview

Last time, the Texans faced the Chiefs, Kansas City controlled the entire game. Can the Houston defense make this rematch different?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 16, 2025

Commanders at Lions: DVOA Preview

Hide your punters and get out your abacuses out, because we're going deep into the stats on a game with a 55.5-point over/under.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 15, 2025

Jackson vs. Allen Just the Latest MVP Bowl

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will face off, the 13th time that the top two MVP candidates met in the playoffs. Who won in the past?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 14, 2025

Wild Card DVOA: Big Games for Texans and Rams

We've got DVOA updated for the playoffs! Baltimore is still No. 1, but Houston is climbing after one of the year's biggest single wins.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 14, 2025

DVOA Downloads

2024 DVOA Downloads Updated February 10 Historical DVOA Archive Updated March 5 Here’s what you will find in these workbooks: ALL BASIC DVOA STATS 1978-2024 Total DVOA with past schedule, variance, estimated wins, and Pythagorean wins. Offensive DVOA with run/pass splits. (Remember, scrambles are passes for the purposes of team DVOA!) Defensive DVOA with run/pass […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 13, 2025

Wild-Card Quick Reads: Ladd McConkey and Great Rookie Playoff Games

Ladd McConkey set a rookie receiving yards record for the playoffs. Did he set the DYAR record too? Plus best and worst players of the Wild-Card Weekend.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 13, 2025

Vikings vs. Rams: DVOA Preview

Can a blitzing Vikings defense get to Matthew Stafford, who excelled at getting the ball out quick against blitzes this season? They didn't in Week 8.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Aaron Schatz: My 2024 All-Pro Ballot

From the Ravens offense to the Eagles line and the Broncos defenders, Aaron Schatz explains his All-Pro votes for 2024.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Commanders at Buccaneers: DVOA Preview

Offenses should rule the day in this close NFC playoff matchup, with both Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield among the year's best quarterbacks.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Packers at Eagles: DVOA Preview

The powerful Packers offense hasn't been quite as good against their best opponents, which is a problem against the NFL's No. 1 defense.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Broncos at Bills: DVOA Preview

The Broncos are back in the playoffs, but they've got a tough draw as the Buffalo Bills try to finally get over the hump and win a title.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 9, 2025

Steelers at Ravens: DVOA Preview

The Ravens and Steelers split their season series but DVOA says the Ravens were the best team in the league this year, a clear favorite on Saturday night.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 9, 2025

Chargers at Texans: DVOA Preview

The Texans won the AFC South by default, with a poor offense lifted by a strong defense. Can they score enough points to beat the wild-card Chargers?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 8, 2025

Jackson, Henry, and Kittle Have All-Time DYAR Seasons in 2024

Our annual look at the best and worst players in our DYAR metric is highlighted by huge seasons for Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and George Kittle.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 8, 2025

Eighth Annual Joe Thomas Draft

What if the playoff teams could grab the best players from the other 18 teams, so we could see the best players in the NFL in the postseason?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 6, 2025

Final 2024 DVOA Ratings

The Ravens finish the season No. 1 for the second straight year, while the Lions do something only six other teams have done since 1978.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 6, 2025

Week 18 Quick Reads: Big Bo Nix Energy

Here's a look at the best and worst players of Week 18 by DYAR.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 3, 2025

Detroit Lions Are the Walking Wounded

Bryan Knowles goes inside StatsHub to show where the Lions have fallen off since losing so many defenders to injuries.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 2, 2025

Cornerback Coverage DVOA Weeks 1-17

Here's another update on our coverage DVOA for cornerbacks, showing why Patrick Surtain is a leading DPOY candidate.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 2, 2025

Down with the Frickin’ Asterisk

Brock Bowers took two extra games to break Mike Ditka's rookie record? Saquon Barkley would need a 17th game to break records? Yeah, we don't care.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

December 31, 2024

Week 17 DVOA: Ravens Keep Climbing

The Baltimore Ravens keep moving up and now rank among the best overall DVOA teams of all time. Yes, we've seen this before.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

December 30, 2024

Week 17 Quick Reads: Big Week for Big QB Games

It was a big week for quarterbacks, with five of the top 13 games of the season by DYAR.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

December 27, 2024

Goff, Jackson Shine Throwing to Open Receivers

Let's look at which quarterbacks have the most value when throwing to open receivers, including Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

December 26, 2024

FTN’s 2024 All-Rookie Team

From Jayden Daniels to Brian Thomas to Tarheeb Still, we're looking at the best of the 2024 rookie class in the NFL.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

December 24, 2024

Week 16 DVOA: Here Come the Packers

The red hot Packers move up to No. 2 in weighted DVOA as the best team in the league since Week 11. Get all the updated ratings here!

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

December 23, 2024

Week 16 Quick Reads: Mahomes Conquers a Strong Defense

Patrick Mahomes was the top quarterback of the week thanks to opponent adjustments. Who else played well against Houston this season?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

December 19, 2024

Our 2024 Pro Bowl Ballot: Defense

From Nik Bonitto and Patrick Surtain to Zack Baun and Cooper DeJean, the Broncos and Eagles feature strongly in our picks for the Pro Bowl on defense and special teams.

Bryan Knowles