Week 12 Quick Reads: Saquon's Schedule

After a huge game against the Los Angeles Rams last night, Saquon Barkley is getting a lot of talk as an MVP candidate. He’s helped drive the Philadelphia Eagles to a 9-2 record. He’s got over 200 more rushing yards than any other running back in the NFL and he’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry.

There are two problems with the idea of Saquon Barkley as an MVP candidate, though. The first is the question of how much value a running back has compared to his offensive linemen or his quarterback. I’m not going to address that debate here. The second issue is strength of schedule. The Philadelphia Eagles have played the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL. As a result, Barkley goes from a clear No. 1 in YAR (without opponent adjustment) to third in DYAR.

This table has the top nine running backs in rushing value this year. (I cut it at nine because that way the same players are ranked in both DYAR and YAR.)

Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	Runs	Yards	Yd/At	TD
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	328	1	271	2	154	886	5.8	10
Derrick Henry	BAL	284	2	260	3	197	1184	6.0	14
Saquon Barkley	PHI	263	3	310	1	223	1392	6.2	10
David Montgomery	DET	200	4	170	5	145	632	4.4	11
James Cook	BUF	198	5	153	7	137	596	4.4	10
Josh Jacobs	GB	183	6	147	8	202	944	4.7	7
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	154	7	193	4	177	876	4.9	7
Bucky Irving	TB	139	8	118	9	108	579	5.4	5
Bijan Robinson	ATL	136	9	156	6	166	782	4.7	6

The Philadelphia Eagles have not played a single one of the top nine run defenses in the NFL by DVOA this season. The best run defense they’ve played is Tampa Bay, which ranks 10th. Eight of their 11 opponents have ranked in the bottom half of the league in run defense.

Compare that to Derrick Henry, who has also been in the MVP and Offensive Player of the Year discussion. Henry has played five games against teams ranked in the top dozen of run defense, including Denver, Kansas City, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh.

Barkley has had an awesome season, certainly. But it’s not quite as good as it has looked. Of course, he’ll have a chance to prove me wrong in a week. The Eagles will face the Ravens next week. That puts Barkley and Henry on the same field, and the Ravens will be the best run defense that the Eagles have faced all season, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry (not including Monday Night Football).

Now let’s take a look at the best and worst DYAR for Week 12 in the NFL…

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum. "Sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus error sit voluptatem accusantium doloremque laudantium, totam rem aperiam, eaque ipsa quae ab illo inventore veritatis et quasi architecto beatae vitae dicta sunt explicabo. Nemo enim ipsam voluptatem quia voluptas sit aspernatur aut odit aut fugit, sed quia consequuntur magni dolores eos qui ratione voluptatem sequi nesciunt. Neque porro quisquam est, qui dolorem ipsum quia dolor sit amet, consectetur, adipisci velit, sed quia non numquam eius modi tempora incidunt ut labore et dolore magnam aliquam quaerat voluptatem.

Week 12 Quick Reads: Saquon’s Schedule

Related