2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Now with Monday Night Football added.
After a huge game against the Los Angeles Rams last night, Saquon Barkley is getting a lot of talk as an MVP candidate. He’s helped drive the Philadelphia Eagles to a 9-2 record. He’s got over 200 more rushing yards than any other running back in the NFL and he’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry.
There are two problems with the idea of Saquon Barkley as an MVP candidate, though. The first is the question of how much value a running back has compared to his offensive linemen or his quarterback. I’m not going to address that debate here. The second issue is strength of schedule. The Philadelphia Eagles have played the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL. As a result, Barkley goes from a clear No. 1 in YAR (without opponent adjustment) to third in DYAR.
This table has the top nine running backs in rushing value this year, prior to Monday Night Football. (I cut it at nine because that way the same players are ranked in both DYAR and YAR.)
| Player | Team | DYAR | Rk | YAR | Rk | Runs | Yards | Yd/At | TD |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 328 | 1 | 271 | 2 | 154 | 886 | 5.8 | 10 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 284 | 2 | 260 | 3 | 197 | 1184 | 6.0 | 14 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | 263 | 3 | 310 | 1 | 223 | 1392 | 6.2 | 10 |
| David Montgomery | DET | 200 | 4 | 170 | 5 | 145 | 632 | 4.4 | 11 |
| James Cook | BUF | 198 | 5 | 153 | 7 | 137 | 596 | 4.4 | 10 |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | 183 | 6 | 147 | 8 | 202 | 944 | 4.7 | 7 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 154 | 7 | 193 | 4 | 177 | 876 | 4.9 | 7 |
| Bucky Irving | TB | 139 | 8 | 118 | 9 | 108 | 579 | 5.4 | 5 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 136 | 9 | 156 | 6 | 166 | 782 | 4.7 | 6 |
The Philadelphia Eagles have not played a single one of the top nine run defenses in the NFL by DVOA this season. The best run defense they’ve played is Tampa Bay, which ranks 10th. Eight of their 11 opponents have ranked in the bottom half of the league in run defense.
Compare that to Derrick Henry, who has also been in the MVP and Offensive Player of the Year discussion. Henry has played five games against teams ranked in the top dozen of run defense, including Denver, Kansas City, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh.
Barkley has had an awesome season, certainly. But it’s not quite as good as it has looked. Of course, he’ll have a chance to prove me wrong in a week. The Eagles will face the Ravens next week. That puts Barkley and Henry on the same field, and the Ravens will be the best run defense that the Eagles have faced all season, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry (not including Monday Night Football).
Now let’s take a look at the best and worst DYAR for Week 12 in the NFL…
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