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Mike Randle
You may remember that a year ago, I introduced a new concept called Route DVOA. I’ve been doing receiving DVOA for over 20 years, but it’s always been based on value per target. Route DVOA is based on value per routes run, which accounts for the skill of getting open and earning targets. It’s probably a better measurement of receiver quality and it’s definitely more consistent and predictive from year to year.
We don’t yet have all our methods streamlined enough to update Route DVOA automatically after each week’s games, but I have been putting it together once I get the FTN Data charting of routes run. My plan was to share the numbers with all of you readers every few weeks, so let’s do our first data dump for this season.
There are a couple of ways to look at these stats. We’ve got Route DVOA, or value per route. We’ve got Route DYAR, or total value based on routes. The player ranks are closer than they are for normal receiving DVOA, but not exactly the same. We can also look at the difference between a player’s regular receiving DVOA and his Route DVOA. To do this, I use z-scores, because Route DVOA has a wider scale than regular receiving DVOA. Z-scores look at the difference in standard deviations over average for each metric.
| Player | Team | Route DYAR |
Rk | Route DVOA |
Rk | Standard DYAR |
Rk | Routes |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 540 | 1 | 74.0% | 4 | 311 | 3 | 342 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 533 | 2 | 59.8% | 6 | 306 | 4 | 415 |
| Drake London | ATL | 474 | 3 | 59.0% | 8 | 177 | 13 | 376 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | 472 | 4 | 39.6% | 16 | 349 | 1 | 490 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | 401 | 5 | 87.0% | 2 | 258 | 5 | 225 |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 400 | 6 | 83.2% | 3 | 186 | 12 | 240 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | 400 | 7 | 45.0% | 15 | 312 | 2 | 384 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 371 | 8 | 102.1% | 1 | 165 | 18 | 179 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | 354 | 9 | 64.1% | 5 | 190 | 10 | 259 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | 339 | 10 | 38.6% | 18 | -21 | 56 | 378 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 332 | 11 | 59.3% | 7 | 201 | 9 | 255 |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | 321 | 12 | 33.7% | 23 | 176 | 14 | 396 |
The real jump here from standard DYAR belongs to Malik Nabers, because he’s so good at drawing targets in a bad offense. Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson rank 56th and 61st in Route DYAR, respectively, out of 69 qualifying receivers.
FTN subscribers receive access to the data for all qualifying wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs below!
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