Breaking Down the NFL Playoff Race 2024

Traditionally, we like to break down the playoff picture the week after Thanksgiving. While the true sickos among us have been following the race since the very beginning of the season, this is a natural point for the average fan to start checking in. It’s time to stop thinking about things solely in terms of how many wins a team has or does not have, and start looking at future schedules, and how tight races are with other teams around the league. It’s time to start scoreboard watching in earnest, living or dying on games when two teams you don’t normally care about are playing just because it gives Your Guys an extra 5% chance of winning a wild-card berth.

You don’t get the same kind of experience in any sport – because the NFL has such a small number of games compared to other major sports, every single one matters so much more, and tiebreakers and scenarios spiral out of control quickly. And because there’s such a long gap between games, there’s more time to ponder scenarios and permutations than there are in other sports. It’s the ideal sport for the crazy people among us, myself included, who trade in bizarre outcomes and unlikely requirements.

Normally, this is where we say that all 32 teams are still mathematically fighting for a playoff spot, but Thanksgiving was a week later than normal this year, and thus, so is this article. We’ve already seen two teams – the Chiefs and Bills – clinch playoff berths. Four more teams – the Giants, Raiders, Jaguars and Patriots – have all been mathematically eliminated. Our dreams of a Tommy DeVito versus Aiden O’Connell Super Bowl matchup will sadly have to wait one more year.

This year is also particularly disappointing if you’re interested in the race to actually make the playoffs. There’s a fairly substantial gulf between the haves and have-nots this year, and the stretch to seven playoff teams in each conference means that nearly everyone with a credible resume is guaranteed a slot. Our current playoff odds give only seven teams in the AFC at least a 20% chance of making the postseason. It’s a little wider in the NFC, but even there only 10 teams hit the 20% mark. Even stretching down to 5%, you’re only talking 20 of the 32 teams still with even half a pulse at this point. This is disappointing. The benefit of an expanded playoffs from a fan perspective is more teams being alive deeper into the season. Instead, things have backfired in 2024. The playoff picture is more fixed in stone than any in recent memory.

That’s not to say there’s no drama down the stretch. It’s just that you have to be a little more proactive in finding the pressure points to focus on. Let’s take our annual look from 20,000 feet and reset the playoff picture as we enter the final five weeks of the season.

The Locks and Near-Locks

As mentioned, the Chiefs and Bills are already in the playoffs, with Buffalo having already clinched the AFC East title. Technically, that’s all we know, but in practical terms, we can pencil more teams in.

In the NFC, the Lions have been at 100.0% on our playoff page for several weeks now. This is not technically true, as that number is rounded. But saying the Lions are not in is like saying you have yet to finish every word in this sentence. Whoops, too late, you missed it. Any win for Detroit gets them in, and even losing out requires them to a) lose a strength of victory tiebreaker to Seattle and b) lose the common games tiebreaker to an Eagles team that doesn’t manage to win the NFC East. The Lions will make the playoffs, as will the Eagles (100.0% odds, rounded), the Vikings (99.7%) and the Packers (97.6%). Four teams down, three slots to go.

One of those slots will likely go to Washington. The Commanders (82.9%) are lagging further behind the pack but have to feel a lot better about their chances after demolishing the Titans last weekend and ending their three-game losing streak. They’ve left themselves some work to do, but 2-2 gets them in about 80% of the time. I could imagine it coming down to needing a win over the Cowboys in January to officially clinch a berth, but unless the Kliff Cliff is truly insurmountable. They’re certainly in a worse spot than, say, the NFC North trio, but they only really need to keep their head above water in order to take a wildcard spot. They ruined their chances of taking home their first divisional title since 2020, but they’ll be more than satisfied with their first winning season since 2016.

In the AFC, the Bills and Chiefs will be joined by the Steelers (99.3%), Ravens (98.4%), Texans (97.6%) and Chargers (96.8%), taking up six of our seven slots. I suppose that’s one advantage of the 14-team playoff; it gives us one open slot to think about down the stretch. Even then, though, that seventh team is currently the Broncos, sitting comfortably at 84.5% after escaping Jameis Winston’s upset attempt on Monday night. That’s not a lock, but the Broncos have found themselves in a situation where they’d have to work to actively screw things up to miss the playoffs. Denver has about a 90% chance of making the postseason if they go 2-2 the rest of the way, and are mathematical locks if they go 3-1, so that cushion is pretty soft for them. We’ve seen crazier things happen before – see the Jaguars’ collapse from last season! – but they’re fairly rare.

On the flip side, there are a few teams shambling around with pulses that are, for all intents and purposes, dead. Eight teams are mathematically alive but have below a 2% chance in our odds: the Saints (1.7%), Cowboys (1.3%), Bengals (0.8%), Titans (0.1%) Bears (0.0%), Panthers (0.0%), Jets (0.0%) and Browns (0.0%). That’s every team with four wins or fewer, plus the Cowboys who play in a tough conference in a tougher division with terrible tiebreakers. Only three teams have gone from four or fewer wins through 12 games and gone on to make the postseason – the 2022 Jaguars, 2014 Panthers and 2008 Chargers. All went on to win very weak divisions, and there’s just nothing like that available this year. The Bengals, with their -0.4% weighted DVOA, could play spoiler down the stretch, but the holes these teams have dug for themselves are too deep for them to have a realistic chance.