First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Dvoa NFL Articles
NFL
DVOA
Divisional Round Quick Reads: Daniels Flies High
Jayden Daniels had the biggest day of the weekend by DYAR. Plus: Why was Saquon Barkley's DYAR so low with so many yards?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX Revised as of 1/20/25, through Week 20 Compiled by Mike Harris The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Divisional Round DVOA: Two Teams Stand Out in Final Four
We're down to the final four, but DVOA clearly sees two teams as clear favorites for Super Bowl LIX: Philadelphia and Buffalo.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Ravens at Bills: DVOA Preview
Here we go with the MVP Bowl: Two of the best quarterbacks in the league, two of the best teams by DVOA, only one of them can move on to the AFC Championship Game.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Rams at Eagles: DVOA Preview
Can the Rams stop Saquon Barkley this time? And do their defensive strengths match what the Eagles like to do on offense?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Texans at Chiefs: DVOA Preview
Last time, the Texans faced the Chiefs, Kansas City controlled the entire game. Can the Houston defense make this rematch different?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Commanders at Lions: DVOA Preview
Hide your punters and get out your abacuses out, because we're going deep into the stats on a game with a 55.5-point over/under.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Jackson vs. Allen Just the Latest MVP Bowl
Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will face off, the 13th time that the top two MVP candidates met in the playoffs. Who won in the past?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card DVOA: Big Games for Texans and Rams
We've got DVOA updated for the playoffs! Baltimore is still No. 1, but Houston is climbing after one of the year's biggest single wins.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
DVOA Downloads
2024 DVOA Downloads Updated January 20 Historical DVOA Archive Here’s what you will find in these workbooks: ALL BASIC DVOA STATS 1979-2023 Total DVOA with past schedule, variance, estimated wins, and Pythagorean wins. Offensive DVOA with run/pass splits. (Remember, scrambles are passes for the purposes of team DVOA!) Defensive DVOA with run/pass splits. Special Teams […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Wild-Card Quick Reads: Ladd McConkey and Great Rookie Playoff Games
Ladd McConkey set a rookie receiving yards record for the playoffs. Did he set the DYAR record too? Plus best and worst players of the Wild-Card Weekend.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Vikings vs. Rams: DVOA Preview
Can a blitzing Vikings defense get to Matthew Stafford, who excelled at getting the ball out quick against blitzes this season? They didn't in Week 8.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Aaron Schatz: My 2024 All-Pro Ballot
From the Ravens offense to the Eagles line and the Broncos defenders, Aaron Schatz explains his All-Pro votes for 2024.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Commanders at Buccaneers: DVOA Preview
Offenses should rule the day in this close NFC playoff matchup, with both Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield among the year's best quarterbacks.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Packers at Eagles: DVOA Preview
The powerful Packers offense hasn't been quite as good against their best opponents, which is a problem against the NFL's No. 1 defense.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Broncos at Bills: DVOA Preview
The Broncos are back in the playoffs, but they've got a tough draw as the Buffalo Bills try to finally get over the hump and win a title.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Steelers at Ravens: DVOA Preview
The Ravens and Steelers split their season series but DVOA says the Ravens were the best team in the league this year, a clear favorite on Saturday night.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Chargers at Texans: DVOA Preview
The Texans won the AFC South by default, with a poor offense lifted by a strong defense. Can they score enough points to beat the wild-card Chargers?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Jackson, Henry, and Kittle Have All-Time DYAR Seasons in 2024
Our annual look at the best and worst players in our DYAR metric is highlighted by huge seasons for Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and George Kittle.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Eighth Annual Joe Thomas Draft
What if the playoff teams could grab the best players from the other 18 teams, so we could see the best players in the NFL in the postseason?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Final 2024 DVOA Ratings
The Ravens finish the season No. 1 for the second straight year, while the Lions do something only six other teams have done since 1978.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 18 Quick Reads: Big Bo Nix Energy
Here's a look at the best and worst players of Week 18 by DYAR.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Detroit Lions Are the Walking Wounded
Bryan Knowles goes inside StatsHub to show where the Lions have fallen off since losing so many defenders to injuries.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Cornerback Coverage DVOA Weeks 1-17
Here's another update on our coverage DVOA for cornerbacks, showing why Patrick Surtain is a leading DPOY candidate.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Down with the Frickin’ Asterisk
Brock Bowers took two extra games to break Mike Ditka's rookie record? Saquon Barkley would need a 17th game to break records? Yeah, we don't care.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 DVOA: Ravens Keep Climbing
The Baltimore Ravens keep moving up and now rank among the best overall DVOA teams of all time. Yes, we've seen this before.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 Quick Reads: Big Week for Big QB Games
It was a big week for quarterbacks, with five of the top 13 games of the season by DYAR.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Goff, Jackson Shine Throwing to Open Receivers
Let's look at which quarterbacks have the most value when throwing to open receivers, including Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s 2024 All-Rookie Team
From Jayden Daniels to Brian Thomas to Tarheeb Still, we're looking at the best of the 2024 rookie class in the NFL.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 DVOA: Here Come the Packers
The red hot Packers move up to No. 2 in weighted DVOA as the best team in the league since Week 11. Get all the updated ratings here!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 Quick Reads: Mahomes Conquers a Strong Defense
Patrick Mahomes was the top quarterback of the week thanks to opponent adjustments. Who else played well against Houston this season?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Our 2024 Pro Bowl Ballot: Defense
From Nik Bonitto and Patrick Surtain to Zack Baun and Cooper DeJean, the Broncos and Eagles feature strongly in our picks for the Pro Bowl on defense and special teams.
Bryan Knowles