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Dvoa NFL Articles

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NFL DVOA
Slot vs. Wide 2023: Wide Receivers
Taking a look at which WR succeeded in the slot vs. out wide in 2023. Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb may surprise you!
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
FTN Football Almanac 2024: Now Live!
Learn more about the FTN Football Almanac 2024, plus download the free sample L.A. Chargers chapter!
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
Defensive Plus-Minus and YAC+ 2023
Taking a look at which defenses were best at preventing completions and YAC given the location of the passes against them, led by the Browns, Ravens, and Jets.
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Cale Clinton
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NFL DVOA
2023 YAC+: Another Huge 49ers Year
Taking a look at which receivers had the most YAC over expectation in 2023, a stat where the 49ers always do very well.
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
Receiving Plus-Minus for 2023
Looking at the most efficient receivers in 2023: CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, and... Evan Engram?
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
Passing Plus-Minus for 2023
Something Derek Carr was good at: completing passes compared to expectation. Brock Purdy was even better.
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Cale Clinton
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NFL DVOA
Caused Pressure Rate for 2023 Offenses
Can we learn something from how often offensive pressure is caused by a blown block? The Arizona offensive line says yes.
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
Defense by Number of Pass Rushers 2023
We know the Vikings blitzed more than anyone else in 2023. Were they good at it?
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
Defenses and Pressure 2023
The Lions got a ton of pass pressure, and they needed it because of secondary issues. Plus more defensive numbers from 2023!
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Cale Clinton
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NFL DVOA
QBs Under Pressure in 2023
Jared Goff had great numbers in 2023, but not when he was under pressure. We look at all the QBs.
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
Fantasy Football: The Early Days
An excerpt from the new book "The History of Fantasy Sports" takes a look at the roots of fantasy football, during the early days of the AFL in Oakland.
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Shaun Evans
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NFL DVOA
Failed Completions 2023
A stat where Brock Purdy was great and Patrick Mahomes was poor? It also wasn't a great year for Bryce Young or Derek Carr when it came to complete passes that still were unsuccessful plays.
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
2024 NFL Draft Report Card Report
Here's our annual look at draft report cards. It was a good year in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia!
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Cale Clinton
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NFL DVOA
Snap-Weighted Size 2023: Defense
Are teams trying to get smaller at defensive back? Plus more defensive numbers from 2023.
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
Snap-Weighted Size 2023: Offense
Shanahan and McVay influenced coaches like their teams smaller, while the Ravens go big.
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
The 2018 NFL Draft, Six Years Later
What does it mean that analytics did such a bad job of projecting Josh Allen and the other quarterbacks of 2018? We look at the whole draft with the advantage of time.
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
1980 Player DVOA and DYAR: Earl Campbell Goes Beast Mode
We’re continuing our look at 1979 and 1980 DVOA ratings with the unveiling of the 1980 player DVOA and DYAR ratings. Earl Campbell was an absolute beast in 1980, even better than he was in 1979. Dan Fouts had another great year. The Falcons and Browns had very strong offenses, and the Patriots had a […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
1980 DVOA: Eagles Can’t Climb the Summit
The Philadelphia Eagles top the ratings as the best team of 1980, narrowly surpassing the surprising Atlanta Falcons. This makes two straight years on top for the Eagles, as they also rank No. 1 for the 1981 season. The Oakland Raiders, who became the first wild-card team since the merger to win the Super Bowl […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
1979 Player DVOA and DYAR: The Greatness of Staubach
Let’s continue our look back at 1979 and 1980 DVOA ratings. Today we have player DVOA and DYAR from the 1979 season. It was a good year for the Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots offenses. It was a very good year for Earl Campbell and the Houston Oilers running game. A reminder, here’s the complete schedule […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
1979 Team DVOA: Back to the Steel Curtain
Today, DVOA finally reaches all the way back to the 1970s. All this week, I’ll be introducing DVOA ratings from 1979 and 1980. That means we’re back to the Steel Curtain Pittsburgh Steelers, and it will not shock you that the champions of Super Bowl XIV were also the No. 1 team in the NFL […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
Snap-Weighted Age 2023
As if it wasn’t enough for the Kansas City Chiefs to be the dynasty perched atop the league, they have the sheer temerity to be one of the league’s youngest teams while doing so? For shame. While the 2023 Chiefs were slightly older than the 2022 version, they still ranked just 25th in snap-weighted age […]
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
Top 10 DVOA Ratings in Losses
It’s the offseason, which means it’s a good time to look at fun past games of NFL history. Today, let’s look at the 10 best DVOA ratings ever scored in games where the team lost anyway. These are generally very good, close games against teams that ranked very high in DVOA and therefore had strong […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
AGL Totals by Position, from Jets Quarterbacks to Patriots Cornerbacks
Earlier this week, we examined adjusted games lost at the team level. Today, we’ll switch perspectives to evaluate the impact of injuries on each position. Note that adjusted games lost totals do not include the postseason. As we noted in our first article, injury totals were down across the NFL this year, so there aren’t […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
Texans Lead 2023 AGL Numbers with OL Injury Record
The Houston Texans were a surprise playoff team in 2023, and they made it to the playoffs despite leading the league in injuries to significant players according to our adjusted games lost (AGL) numbers. Cleveland also made it to the playoffs despite a high AGL in 2023. Other teams that suffered a ton of injuries […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
Isaac Guerendo Tops 2024 RB Speed Scores
The very top of the Speed Score leaderboards is some rarified air. Since electronic timing started at the combine in 1999, only 11 running backs have hit 120 or higher; a number usually reserved more for track stars than NFL stars. We hadn’t had anyone join the club since Jonathan Taylor ran a 4.39 back […]
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
NFL Combine: Translating Coachspeak to Reality
Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah positively adores Justin Jefferson. Sean Payton would toss Russell Wilson into the mouth of a volcano if he could. The Chicago Bears braintrust still likes Justin Fields, but not nearly as much as they like their other options. The NFL scouting combine is a time for head coaches and […]
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FTN Staff
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NFL DVOA
Reverse PGWE: The Least Expected NFL Wins Since 1979
A couple of years ago, I developed a new metric alled Post-Game Win Expectancy (PGWE). The idea was to explore games where the losing team has a higher DVOA rating than the winning team. How unlikely are these losses? PGWE has nothing to do with how good the teams are on the season, or coming […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
How Bad Was the Eagles’ Collapse?
Recently, I was hit up by a local reporter to talk about this year’s Philadelphia Eagles collapse down the stretch. The next day, Ross Tucker tweeted out about how public perception of Jalen Hurts has fallen way too low because of those last few games. I happen to be in agreement with him about this, […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
Dynasty Rankings Update 2024
The Kansas City Chiefs were already a dynasty. But now they’re a Dynasty, capital-D, all rights reserved. After the NFL’s 100th season in 2019, I went back on our old website and attempted to systematically rank every dynasty in the history of the league, casting a wide net to attempt to catch any sustained period […]
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Bryan Knowles
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NFL DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA and Quick Reads
The Kansas City Chiefs ended up with a higher DVOA than the San Francisco 49ers in their Super Bowl LVIII win. But as you might imagine given how good the Niners were in the regular season, that’s because of opponent adjustments. As befits a game where the Chiefs recovered six of seven fumbles including both […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA Preview
Well, here we are again with the question of whether we have to consider Patrick Mahomes as “playoff LeBron.” Does Mahomes specifically raise his game in the playoffs, to the point where we can’t accurately analyze the Super Bowl LVIII matchup because we can’t use past statistics to determine Kansas City’s strengths and weaknesses? Last […]
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Aaron Schatz
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NFL DVOA
Aaron Schatz’s 2023 NFL Award Ballot
This was my fourth year as an official Associated Press voter for both the All-Pro team and the end-of-season awards. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a long article about my All-Pro votes. With the NFL awards now given out, I wanted to do the same and divulge my award ballot. Sign up for […]
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Aaron Schatz